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Sembmarine

krisluke
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10-Dec-2010 14:01

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krisluke
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09-Dec-2010 00:33

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krisluke
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09-Dec-2010 00:05

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krisluke
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08-Dec-2010 14:37

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This one looks like index stock, meaning when sti up also follows up. (remember sti=4200, smar @ 560:: if not forgotten). Judge from the oil price only allow you to have renew optimistic abt new builds (nowadays hot topic is on oil rig not container ship liow). Usually kanna whack down when sti go under water. can use hang seng futures to predict selling / buying price.

It's indeed a high beta stock, compared to scorp which go through cycle from infrastructure play

But recently trading remains muted, follow sti..............

Hsi fut -330 (1430hrs), stabilising manager clsa ( if i'm not wrong)

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epliew
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08-Dec-2010 13:35

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Yells: "no worries be happy !"

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just a question, what will affect their business oil price or other factors like war ?

krisluke ( Date: 07-Dec-2010 12:53) Posted:

Analysis: Drilling Contractors Bullish on Ultra-Deepwater Outlook

Rigzone Staff | Monday, December 06, 2010

Drilling rig contractors are bullish on the long-term outlook for the global ultra-deepwater drilling sector, with rig demand beginning to recover following the global financial crisis of 2008 and ultra-deepwater rig demand appearing outside the "Golden Triangle" markets of West Africa, Brazil and the U.S. Gulf of Mexico.

The number of deepwater discoveries has picked up again as the global financial recovery and sustainable oil prices have prompted national oil companies, majors and independents to begin spending again on exploration. Drilling companies are finding that operators are opting for high-specification rigs, including rigs with dynamic positioning (DP) capabilities to meet more challenging geological plays as well as increased safety and operational standards.

Pride International President and CEO Lou Raspino told attendees at the inaugural Jefferies 2010 Global Energy Conference in Houston last week that he sees potential for its ultra-deepwater drillship Deep Ocean Molokai, which is scheduled for delivery in December 2011 and is not yet under contract, not only in the traditional Golden Triangle markets of Brazil and West Africa, but emerging deepwater plays such as offshore India, New Zealand, Malaysia, Indonesia, eastern Canada and eastern Africa.

The company also has favorable contracts for its other new drillships, including Deep Ocean Ascension and Deep Ocean Clarion, which were delivered this year and are under contract to BP at day rates above $500,000/day. The newbuild drillship Deep Ocean Mendocino will be delivered in January 2011, and is under contract to Petrobras at a day rate just above the $500,000 mark.

Fleet utilization remains effectively full through 2010 and looks tight for 2011 for ultra-deepwater rigs capable of drilling in more than 6,999 feet of water, with Pride seeing improved client demand and tenders and pre-tenders higher in this year's third quarter. Day rates for the sector remain above the $400,000 mark, Raspino noted. He estimates that 83 percent of the company's floating rig fleet will be contracted for deepwater work in 2011 and that deepwater work will comprise 75 percent of its revenue in 2013.

The company already has a significant presence in Brazil and Angola, with more than half of its revenues of $1,059 million for the nine months ended Sept. 30, 2010 coming from its Brazilian operations. Raspino anticipates seeing more demand for ultra-deepwater rigs from Petrobras, with shortages forecast in 2011 and 2012, even with Petrobras' recent announcement that it would move forward with plans to construct 28 drilling rigs to tackle its pre-salt offshore reserves. "The amount of drilling activity at Tupi and other areas will require more rigs than Brazil can possibly build," Raspino said.

Seadrill CEO and President Alf C. Thorkildsen said during company's third quarter 2010 earnings call that he is convinced Brazil will build rigs, but not that it will order up to 28 rigs, and estimates that the first rig would come out in 2016 due to lack of shipyards in Brazil experienced in this type of construction. Thorkildsen noted that many of these shipyards will need upgrades to tackle these projects.

"But I am of the opinion that the market in Brazil will absorb that, and also to a large extent some of the available capacity in the world and take up some of that," Thorkildsen said. Seadrill earlier this year said market demand prompted it to order two ultra-deepwater drillships from Samsung Shipyard at a US$600 million a piece.

Noble Corporation also expects to see rig demand recovery over the next several years, with progressive growth toward the end of the decade. The company sees major areas of growth in Brazil and West Africa, with floating rig demand strong in Norway as well. While deepwater and mid-water rig rates will remain under pressure in the near-term, the company noted that ultra-deepwater day rates are strong enough to encourage newbuild rig construction.

Noble also has been renewing its fleet since 2007, adding four semisubmersibles capable of drilling in 10,000 feet or greater, including three DP semis, and four DP drillships with 10,000 feet or greater drilling capacity. These additions do not include Noble's Frontier fleet acquisition in July, which gave the company a 5,000-foot DP drillship, two moored drillships, including one Arctic-class drillship, a moored semi and an DP FPSO, said Thomas L. Mitchell, senior vice president and chief financial officer at Noble, during a presentation at the Jefferies conference

While the future of deepwater drilling activity in U.S. Gulf of Mexico remains uncertain, operators face a wide range of possible scenarios, from less onerous regulations that allow smaller operators to still participate to stringent new rules that could result in a major exodus from the U.S. Gulf, creating a "Dead Sea", according to Noble.

Other drilling contractors such as ENSCO PLC also are investing in ultra-deepwater rigs. ENSCO is investing more than $3 billion in its ENSCO 8500 series of seven newbuild ultra-deepwater rigs. Last month, Athens-based Dryships Inc. entered an agreement with Samsung Shipyard in South Korea for the option to construct up to four ultra-deepwater drillships, which would be delivered during 2013 and 2014, at a cost of around $600 million each. "The ultra-deepwater market has turned a corner and we believe that this is the bottom of the newbuilding price cycle," said DryShips Chairman and CEO George Economou. "We see strong demand for state of the art ultra-deepwater drillships and are confident of customer demand for these drillships."

According to RigLogix, 30 drillships rated for drilling in water depths greater than 9,800 feet have been delivered this year or are scheduled for delivery through 2013, while 24 semis capable of drilling in greater than 2,461 feet of water will be delivered through to 2012. Thirteen of the drillships scheduled for delivery currently are without contract, while 10 of the semis set for delivery do not have contracts at this time. Petrobras has 17 of the newbuild rigs set for delivery through 2013 already under contract.

Happy reading guys / - Smiley

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krisluke
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08-Dec-2010 12:52

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Diversified Portfolio, Hear From The Expertise Smiley

Written by Kang Wan Chern, the edge singapore

Monday, 06 December 2010 15:54

Janice Chua, senior vice-president and head of research at DBS Vickers, tries to play down the fact that she has won numerous awards for recommending the right stocks and making accurate earnings forecasts during the year, and that the 15 analysts she leads have swept multiple awards for picking the best-performing stocks on the Singapore Exchange. However, she finally admits that clinching the titles for best local brokerage and highest-ranked Asia-based house during the year was no walk in the park.

Image: Chua: With the weakness in the market and current tensions between North and South Korea, this is a good buying opportunity to pick sectors that could rebound during the expected rally in January. Credit: Samuel Isaac Chua

“It’s not easy being an analyst,” Chua tells The Edge Singapore during a recent interview. “It’s not simply sitting at your desk all day. We regularly make site visits and chat with sources along the supply chain for more accurate information. Factors like the weather also come into play in providing reliable recommendations.” For instance, when Hurricane Katrina slammed into the Gulf of Mexico, Chua and her team spent days poring over weather forecast reports in efforts to estimate the risk of damage to oil rigs located there, because the additional repair work would have an impact on rig builder Keppel Corp, which operates several fabrication yards in the US.

Appointed to her current role in 2006 after 14 years’ experience covering the offshore and marine (O&M), industrials, financials, construction and automotive sectors, Chua’s job is also about selling ideas that work. “You have to keep coming up with new investing ideas for clients to make money,” she says. “Sometimes, it’s not just about picking individual stocks, but bundling several stocks under a suitable theme to appeal to clients.”

As 2010 draws to a close, Chua recently released one such strategy report dated Nov 22, highlighting several stocks that could outperform the market during the quiet weeks before Christmas. “With the weakness in the market and current tensions between North and South Korea, this is a good buying opportunity to pick sectors that could rebound during the expected rally in January, when fund managers come back from their holidays and the market is usually packed with trading ideas and activity,” she says.

The Straits Times Index (STI) has fallen about 2% since tensions broke out between Pyongyang and Seoul in late November, although Chua believes the weakness will be shortlived. On Dec 2, the index closed at 3,197.96 points. “As the market consolidates during the seasonal lull, we expect three sectors to provide news flow and near-term catalysts for outperfor mance: O&M; hospitality and commodity; and plantation stocks,” says Chua, who sees the STI hitting a high of 3,500 in 1Q2011.

BULLSH ON RIG BUILDERS

In the O&M sector, Chua is bullish on the two Singapore rig builders — Keppel and Sembcorp Marine. “We are looking for sectors that can rebound in 1Q2011 and the rig builders were an easy call, as we have been waiting for a big splash of order wins from Petrobras for a while now,” says Chua. “These contracts have been delayed for more than a year, and we are finally seeing Petrobras opening up the commercial bids, which is positive news for the rig builders’ share prices.”

On Nov 29, Brazilian national oil company Petrobras officially announced commercial bids from seven rig yards vying for contracts to build the 28 drillships it needs to develop its deepwater subsalt oilfields located in the Santos Basin, off the coast of Rio de Janeiro. The building contracts will be awarded in four packages of seven rigs each.

Brazilian shipyard Estaleiro Atlantico Sul (EAS) — a consortium formed by South Korea’s Samsung Heavy Industries and local construction giants Queiroz Galvao and Camargo Correa — submitted the lowest bid of US$4.65 billion ($6.1 billion), outbidding six other groups — including Keppel and Sembmarine — for the first batch of seven drillships. Chua expects EAS to be awarded the contract.

Petrobras is currently negotiating the price of the remaining batches with Keppel, Sembmarine and a third yard owned by the Alusa- Galvao consortium, comprising Brazilian engineering conglomerate Galvao Engenharia and South Korea’s Sungdong Shipbuilding and Marine Engineering. Interestingly, Cosco Corp is the consortium’s international technical consultant.

Meanwhile, Chua expects a close tussle between the three yards for the remaining drillship contracts. The tender is expected to close by year-end. Keppel is proposing to build the seven drillships at a total price of US$5.172 billion, marginally outbidding Sembmarine’s offer of US$5.178 billion.

Keppel and Sembmarine are also bidding to build a second package of oil rigs for Petrobras, where EAS and Keppel are in the lead for at least one semisubmersible each. Under the second package, EAS was again the lowest bidder, with a price of US$719 million for a drillship, while Keppel came in second, with a bid of US$749 million to build a semi submersible type rig, a mere 4% ahead of EAS. Sembmarine’s semisub bid of US$870 million was third, but 21% above of EAS’ bid, “possibly pricing it out of the competition”, Chua says.

She favours Keppel over Sembmarine, believing that the former stands a higher chance of winning Petrorbras orders, based on its ability to price the rigs at a lower level. She predicts that Keppel could end up winning up to 11 contracts — including the set of seven drillships — amounting to a total contract value of between US$3.5 billion and US$8 billion.

In comparison, “the chance of Sembmarine winning the semisubmersible orders is slim, considering their price is 21% and 16% higher than EAS’s and Keppel’s bids, respectively,” Chua points out. “As for the seven drillships, Sembmarine stands a fair chance of winning. We maintain our order win assumption of US$5.1 billion for seven Petrobras drillships for Sembmarine.” However, should it lose the Petrobras bid, the impact on Sembmarine’s FY2012 forecast earnings “could be up to 5%, reducing long-term visibility of its order book”.

Nevertheless, Chua is still calling a “buy” on Sembmarine, valuing the stock at $5.48 apiece, which represents an 11.6% upside. She is recommending a “buy” on Keppel, with a price target of $12.20 each — giving it an upside of 12.4% — and recently raised her earnings forecast on the stock by 2% and 3% in FY2011 and FY2012, respectively. Indeed, even if both Keppel and Sembmarine end up not winning any orders from Petrobras, the ongoing jackup rig replacement cycle as well as lower newbuild prices should keep the orders flowing in. “Oil majors have more incentives to book yard space now as newbuild prices are still below peak levels,” she says. “We see the upward cycle for newbuild jack-up rigs continuing, as oil majors are spending on equipment again in view of the high oil price.”

MORE UPSIDE FOR PLANTATION STOCKS

With the greenback sliding and inflation on the rise in Asia, Chua is also expecting to see a strong rebound in crude palm oil (CPO) prices in 1Q2011. “The fact that we are entering into an inflationary boom cycle and a period of high liquidity means that commodities like palm oil will be going up, followed by pure upstream oil palm plantation players such as Indo food Agri Resources and First Resources,” says Chua.

On the supply side, factors such as the seasonal drop in FFB (fresh fruit bunch) yields in January/February 2011 and potentially lower soybean yields due to climate disruptions caused by La Niña could fuel a further rally in CPO prices. Meanwhile, demand from China will remain strong. Continued US dollar weakness and weather disruptions this year should also boost cotton, wheat, sugar, and rubber prices next year, although supplies are likely to recover in 2H2011, Chua believes.

She has “buy” calls on Indofood Agri and First Resources, valuing the stocks at $3.05 and $1.55 apiece, respectively. “We favour upstream plantation counters to capitalise on strong soft-commodity prices... Indofood Agri’s earnings growth remains one of the highest in the sector over the next three years, due to increased oil palm maturity, as well as initial contribution from sugar and resilient rubber and seeds,” writes Chua in her report.

Meanwhile, she has downgraded Wilmar International to a “hold”. “As an integrated supply chain manager, Wilmar owns plantations but it also has the plants and factories, so higher CPO prices will ultimately result in lower margins for Wilmar,” says Chua. Indeed, Wilmar recently disappointed the market with a 60% drop in 3Q2011 earnings, hit by margins compression and trading losses. DBS has since cut its earnings estimates by 20.7% and 11.8% for FY2010 and FY2011, respectively.

However, Chua has “buy” calls on the other two commodities supply chain managers, Noble Group and Olam International, whose share prices are “usually driven by share placements and fundraising for acquisitions”.

PLAYGROUND FOR TOURISTS

Chua expects a huge surge of tourists into the city-state, drawn by the two integrated resorts, as the year draws to an end. “This year, we have seen major growth in all the tourism-related stocks,” she says. “Growth in this sector will continue in the year ahead, but it will be more moderate compared with this year.”

Chua expects good 4Q2010 results from Genting Singapore owing to the rise in the number of holidaymakers during the December period, saying the new junkets expected next year “should boost the share price”. She has a “buy” call on Genting and believes the stock could hit $2.70 within the next 12 months, representing a further upside of about 29%. She is also maintaining her “buy” recommendations on CDL Hospitality Trusts, Singapore Airlines and UOL. Meanwhile, DBS has also revised its earnings estimates for ComfortDelGro up by 4% to 6% in both FY2010 and FY2011, on the back of an expanded taxi fleet in Singapore and overseas.

HAPPY READING GUYS Smiley

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krisluke
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08-Dec-2010 00:00

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Singapore set to shine

Positive outlook: S. Iswaran, Singapore's senior minister for trade, industry and education

Iswaran told delegates at the OSEA event in Singapore that there are more than 3000 offshore and marine players based in the city state from oil and gas majors to product companies.

The industry had felt the impacts of the global downturn, but with the global economy’s recovery moving onto a firmer footing "the long term prospects for the industry remain bright", said Iswaran.

"Major yards are seeing a pick up in orders. Singapore’s largest oil-rig maker Keppel has a strong order book of S$5 billion (US$3.8 billion), with deliveries extending to the second quarter of 2013. In addition, Sembcorp Marine has commenced a large-scale undertaking to consolidate its various operations into a state-of-the-art new yard."

In the last five years, Singapore's offshore and marine industry had grown at a compounded rate of 18%, he said. In 2008, there was a record output of S$18.3 billion. Last year, the industry’s output was S$16.83 billion, while the outlook for this year looks promising.

In the wake of the recent BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, it is expected that there will be a step-up of stringent testing and qualification requirements for the industry. Singapore, with its comprehensive cluster of companies, is well placed to support more of such testing and certification activities," said Iswaran.

"Key oil and gas equipment and services players like Schlumberger, Weatherford, and Cameron hold similar optimistic sentiments. They have all projected a highly positive outlook for their operations in Singapore and placed Asia high on their list of business priorities."

*Singapore’s Agency for Science, Technology & Research (A*STAR) will be initiating research and development in oil and gas equipment to position the island state as an innovation hub for the oil and gas equipment sector and strengthen Singapore’s offshore and marine industry

A*STAR will be collaborating with local universities on R&D on programmes including materials for offshore equipment and multiphase flow analysis, said Iswaran at Osea 2010. The programmes are intended to provide technological solutions and innovations to oil and gas equipment manufacturers for products capable of being used in harsh environments and deep-water.

“As the industry pushes towards harsher and deeper environments, we see significant challenges that remain, particularly in the area of high temperature materials, high temperature electronics and modelling of multiphase flows,” said Schlumberger artificial lift product group engineering manager, Brindesh Dhruva.

"The availability of such research activity, and the opportunity to leverage it, makes it an important consideration when planning engineering activities in Singapore.”

Published: 30 November 2010 06:20 GMT | Last updated: 30 November 2010 07:08 GMT

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krisluke
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07-Dec-2010 19:06

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Price

Trades

Volume

Sold to Buyer

Mid

Bought from Seller

4.880

91,000

4.890

555,000

286,000

269,000

4.891

8,000

4.899

38,000

4.900

533,000

387,000

146,000

4.905

11,000

4.910

169,000

46,000

21,000

102,000

4.920

386,000

241,000

145,000

4.929

14,000

4.930

421,000

229,000

5,000

187,000

4.936

7,000

4.939

9,000

4.940

451,000

158,000

293,000

4.949

10,000

4.950

235,000

100,000

135,000

4.955

2,000

4.960

111

447,000

202,000

245,000

4.967

37,000

4.969

13,000

4.970

305,000

164,000

141,000

4.980

260,000

118,000

142,000

4.985

2,000

4.990

299,000

89,000

210,000

5.000

135,000

TOTAL

750

4,438,000

2,111,000

177,000

2,150,000

Selling interest was observed from price range 488 to 493

At 494, selling interest starts to stabilize

Buyer/Seller hesistated to push price further from 496 to 498

At 499, buying interest seems to step in Smiley

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krisluke
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07-Dec-2010 12:53

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Analysis: Drilling Contractors Bullish on Ultra-Deepwater Outlook

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krisluke
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07-Dec-2010 12:48

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Latin American Oil: More Than Just Petrobras

When conversation turns to Latin American oil stocks, it's apt to begin and end with Petrobras (ticker: PBR), Brazil's booming energy giant.

But increasingly, Colombian-focused oil companies like state-controlled Ecopetrol (EC) and upstart Canadian outfit Pacific Rubiales Energy, (PRE.Canada), deserve to be part of the discussion. The shares of Ecopetrol have risen about 64% in the past year and Pacific Rubiales' have doubled, though an analyst says there's roughly 20% upside still left. Both companies have made dramatic production gains, enjoy good prospects for continued growth in reserves, and have thrived under the improved security climate in Colombia. Backed by billions in U.S. military aid, the country's military has gained the upper hand against leftist guerrillas who a few years ago were lording it over the same eastern provinces where wildcatters now are drilling for crude.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst Frank McGann recently reiterated a Buy on Ecopetrol, in part because of management strength. "After years of undermanaged assets, they've become more aggressive," says McGann, who has a price target of 50 for the shares, up from last week's 42.38. An exploration and development company with a market cap one-tenth that of Ecopetrol's, Pacific Rubiales also is growing quickly under a unique management group. They are mostly former Petroleos de Venezuela executives banished by President Hugo Chavez after the 2002-2003 general strike.

Using knowledge gained in heavy oil fields in Venezuela's Orinoco Belt, Pacific Rubiales has been the main player in boosting output at Colombia's eastern plains, or Llanos, region, where oil has the consistency of tar. As operator, it's developing the Rubiales and Quifa fields there in partnership with Ecopetrol. Combined, the two fields will double their production in 2010 over last year to 200,000 barrels per day and thus account for nearly one-quarter of Colombia's crude output. Pacific Rubiales is McGann's top Latin oil stock pick with a target price of 40, versus 32.02 last week.

It's all quite a turnabout from 2003, when Colombia's production was plummeting, mainly because the terror sown by the rebels made drilling too risky. Fearing the nation would lose oil self-sufficiency, then-president Alvaro Uribe ordered the privatization of Ecopetrol and began to offer extremely attractive terms to foreign oil explorers.

Seven years later, Colombia's total annual output is expected to average 800,000 barrels of crude and 1.1 billion cubic feet of gas daily, up 48% and 90%, respectively, from 2003. It ranks 25th among the world's oil producers, up from 29th in 2005. About 100 exploratory wells will be drilled in Colombia this year, up from only 10 in 2002.

For most of its history, Ecopetrol was a passive partner in foreign companies' big Colombian ventures. In 2007, the government sold a 10.1% chunk of shares to the public, and today Ecopetrol boasts a market cap of $82 billion. It's been trying since to remake itself as a more entrepreneurial entity.

Ecopetrol President Javier Gutierrez told Barron's that the company next year will invest $1.3 billion in exploration, including 40 exploratory wells, mostly to be drilled in Colombia but also in Brazil, Peru and the U.S. Gulf Coast. That's up from 23 exploratory wells this year. Ecopetrol has trumpeted plans to raise output of crude and equivalents to an average of 750,000 barrels a day in 2011, up 22% from this year. The company, which is among the world's 40 largest oil concerns, has set its sights on one million barrels a day by 2015.

The integrated company is also shoring up its downstream operations, and its $10.6 billion investment plan for 2011 includes continued work on an ultramodern refinery. Ecopetrol is also the lead investor in a $4.2 billion pipeline project, the biggest since the mid-1990s, to connect heavy-oil fields to the Caribbean depot at Covenas.

Jose Arata, president of Pacific Rubiales, says the company's net production could average 150,000 barrels a day next year, up 50% from the 100,000 net barrels a day production it will average in 2010. The company has primed analysts to expect reserves to hit a total of 400 million barrels by year end, or 43% more than last year. The oil producer is expected to earn $1.17 per share this year and $1.99 next year. Revenue, at $1.15 billion through the first three quarters of 2010, is running 168% over last year's similar period.

There are some nubarrones, or clouds, on the horizon, Skeptics wonder if Ecopetrol can change its culture, noting the company has yet to make a major oil discovery. The bulk of the 300 million barrels added to Ecopetrol's reserves last December came from a "revaluation" of existing reserves and improved crude recovery techniques. It's also been an active acquirer.

There also are worries that the government will offer more shares to spend for its own purposes, a fear that recently cut the stock price, or lift Ecopetrol's royalties and taxes, currently among the lowest in Latin America.

Finance Minister Juan Carlos Echeverry insisted to Barron's that the new president, Juan Manuel Santos, isn't about to mess with a good thing.

"We know that attractive terms now offered to oil companies to come here to invest have been responsible for Colombia strengthening its energy self-sufficiency," Echeverry says. "We aren't going to change that."

(Chris Kraul, a Bogota-based freelance writer, covers Latin America for the Los Angeles Times and other publications.)

infos reading /-

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krisluke
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07-Dec-2010 12:41

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Atwood Osprey on Track for Early 2011 Delivery Sembcorp Marine Ltd.

Monday, December 06, 2010

Sembcorp Marine’s subsidiary Jurong Shipyard is on track to deliver the Atwood Osprey – a first of its class ultra-deepwater semi-submersible drilling rig – to Atwood Oceanics following its successful naming on Dec. 4.

Scheduled for delivery in early 2011, the Atwood Osprey will be deployed by Chevron Australia Pty, Ltd to the Greater Gorgon area in northwest Australia.

The 9th rig from the Friede & Goldman (F&G) ExD Millennium Class series built by Jurong Shipyard, the Atwood Osprey was specifically developed to meet challenging environmental conditions on-site and is a testament to the yard’s ability to enhance existing designs and overcome engineering challenges to meet owner’s requirements.

The Atwood Osprey, the first of two high-performance semi-submersible rigs contracted to Jurong Shipyard by Atwood Oceanics, was christened by Lady Sponsor, Mrs Patricia Springer, wife of Mr Kent Springer, Chevron Australia’s Drilling and Completions Manager, during a ceremony in Jurong Shipyard.

Following its naming, the Atwood Osprey will go through final testing and commissioning prior to its delivery. The moored rig will be capable of drilling up to 35,000 feet as well as operating in water depths of up to 6,000 feet with its own mooring equipment and 8,200 feet with pre-laid mooring, and has an accommodation capacity for 200 persons.

Atwood Oceanics’ second rig order with Jurong Shipyard, a F&G ExD Millennium Class dynamically positioned ultra-deepwater semi-submersible rig rated for 10,000 feet water depth, is currently under construction and is scheduled for delivery no later than mid 2012.

When completed, both of these units will be the most advanced drilling rigs in Atwood Oceanics’ fleet and will further strengthen the company’s position as a leader in the offshore drilling industry.

Mr Rob Saltiel, President and CEO of Atwood Oceanics, commented, “The Atwood Osprey is the result of our successful collaboration with Jurong Shipyard, Chevron Australia, and many equipment suppliers and service partners who have worked side-by-side with us to complete this project safely and on time. Atwood and Jurong have enjoyed a long and successful history of working together, and today marks another bright chapter in our productive relationship."

Mr Wong Weng Sun, President and Chief Executive Officer of Sembcorp Marine and Managing Director of Jurong Shipyard, said: “We would like to thank Atwood Oceanics for entrusting us the construction of their two semi-submersible drilling rigs. Jurong Shipyard had since the late 70s carried out repair and upgrading for Atwood’s fleet, including the Atwood Southern Cross, Atwood Hunter and Atwood Falcon. This close relationship has resulted in a synergy that has been a contributing factor towards the successful execution of the Atwood Osprey project."

Source: from rigzone

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07-Dec-2010 12:25

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Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health"

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Petrobras cuts two from rig bids

Petrobras has disqualified the two highest bidding shipyards in the race to supply the Brazilian oil giant with up to 28 ultra-deepwater rigs.

Gareth Chetwynd 06 December 2010 12:31 GMT

In the most important category, offering contracts to supply Petrobras with seven drillships per yard, Estaleiro EISA Alagoas, and Andrade Gutierrez were disqualified, with their respective prices of $5.49 million and $5.77 million rated “evidently excessive” in a Petrobras communique to all bidders.

This leaves five bids still in the running, with fifth-placed Odebrecht-OAS-UTC ($5.31 million), Jurong Shipyard ($5.18 million), Keppel Fels ($5.17 million), Alusa-Galvao ($4.68 milllion and Estaleiro Atlantico Sul ($4.65 million).

The commercial “qualification” of five bids gave some observers the impression that Petrobras may accept more offers than was first thought when prices were opened in November.

The communique also stated that representatives of the Alusa-Galvao consortium had been called into meetings with Petrobras to clarify the commercial aspects of their proposal.

This consortium, inexperienced in the offshore sector, also faced some of the most searching questions regarding the technical and commercial aspects of its shipyard project, which requires intensive dredging in the Barra Furado region of Rio state.

Many industry insiders argue that the Odebrecht-led consortium, which includes a new shipyard project in the state of Bahia , enjoys the strongest political connections.

The latest communique led to some predictions that Petrobras may be likely to exclude the Alusa-Galvao bid and award contracts to the remaining four groups.

For more, read this week’s edition of Upstream newspaper on Friday.

Published: 06 December 2010 12:31 GMT | Last updated: 06 December 2010 12:33 GMT

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krisluke
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06-Dec-2010 20:21

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* Attempt to break the upper down trend channel fail today, no worries there is still tmr Smiley

My trading chart

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krisluke
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06-Dec-2010 20:07

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Petrobras till this date, has not concluded the rigs offer to who. It state the package offer seems that smars was of the highest bids. Analysts read the news and rule out smars and favor kpc. To what i heard, suppose to be finalised in year end.

Just treat the down trend channel as price chart correction lor. Till now, really don't have any idea who will win the petrobras rigs offer. If says kfels win all the packages offer x 28 rigs (which is not likely to happen), this should show that sea drilling activities are in demand. Hopefully smar get contract from other rig lords / / owners.

epliew ( Date: 06-Dec-2010 16:46) Posted:

did they lost the bid ?

krisluke ( Date: 02-Dec-2010 22:52) Posted:

Merrill Lynch Smiley

Too early to sell on news of Petrobras’ commercial bids Smiley

Switch to SMM, due to its weaker post-Petrobras sentiment We believe investors were generally disappointed by the details of commercial bids for Petrobras’ 28 rigs last Friday, as Keppel Corp’s (KEP) share price only rose 0.2%, and Sembcorp Marine’s (SMM) dipped 3.8%. We believe the sell down in SMM’s [the 4th lowest bidder for Package 2 (please refer to page 2)] share price is unwarranted, as the jury is still out on the total number of rigs that Petrobras wants to build.

Our base case stays unchanged, and we keep the S$4.9bn order win expectation (from Petrobras) for both KEP and SMM in our earnings models. There is upside to our FY10 order win assumptions if our thesis proves correct. Order awards not decided yet, but 28 rigs or more possible We believe SMM may yet win a batch of 7 drillships, if Petrobras sticks to its 28 rigs or more offer, including at least 3 batches of 7 drillships each.

This scenario implies:

1) SMM is the 4th winner if Petrobras awards 4 batches of 7 rigs each,

2) the 3rd winner if Petrobras awards 3 batches of 7 rigs each, as KEP will likely be diverted to win rig orders in other packages to avoid being seen as dominating Petrobras’ tenders, for both politically and commercially feasible reasons. Indeed, KEP has already emerged as the second lowest bidder for a rig under Package 1, and dominates the tenders for newbuild chartered-in rigs under Package 3.

Investors writing off SMM’s chances are in for a surprise We now prefer SMM more than KEP for exposure to Petrobras’ orders, due to:

1) share price upside as investors’ sentiment reverses, after the decline last Friday had reflected diminishing hope on SMM’s chances. We see SMM’s probability of success as reasonable, as our channel check shows Petrobras may award more than 28 rigs in total.

2) Bigger price upside to our S$5.70 PO for SMM. There is 9% downside to our current PO if SMM does not win Petrobras’ orders. On the contrary, there could be upside to our current PO, if we raise the value of the order win assumption from S$700mn for each rig closer to its bid of US$740mn. More upside left in KEP, on a standalone basis KEP has a good chance of winning Petrobras’ orders, and we keep our Buy on the group. This is due to possible 5% upside adjustment to our S$11.30 PO, if we adjust for KEP’s US$739mn bid for each drillship, vs the S$700mn value captured in our model. It is worth noting the final price for each rig is still to be negotiated with Petrobras, and the exact number of rigs awarded to KEP is not fixed yet. Petrobras’ orders are big, but is just part of cyclical upturn We reiterate our thesis that the rig building sector is not just about Petrobras’ orders, but a multi-year cyclical upturn that was first driven by the demand for higher spec rigs, and then subsequently by the supply case for replacement of older rigs. We believe the pressure for higher newbuild prices is building up, and this will lead to a re-rating on the sector to beyond mid-cycle valuations on 2012.

Sembcorp Marine (SMBMF) Smiley

Our PO for SMM is S$5.70. This is based on the FCFF valuation model on SMM,
and the value of the group's equity investments at forward P/E. We expect SMM
to achieve a series of record earnings FY12 onwards, after enduring a short-term earnings decline during FY11. Hence, we believe the FCFF model is the most appropriate valuation metric to capture the intrinsic value of this world-leadingshipyard in a transition phase, and the high free cash flow generative nature of the group's business. The implied FY10E P/E at our PO is 15x.

Our FCFF valuation model uses a WACC of 8.7%, based on a risk-free rate of
2.6% and a market risk premium of 4.5%. We have assumed a terminal growth
rate of 1%.

Downside risks to our PO are

1) Sudden unexpected reduction in global oil demand and E&P activities, which would reduce the incentive to build
new offshore drilling rigs and production units,

2) Failure to win newbuild rig/FPSO contracts from Petrobras,

3) Weaker-than-expected margin execution at new yards in Singapore and Brazil.

The upside risks are

1) Fasterthan-expected new order upswing,

2) Better profit margins, as operational efficiency gains at new and existing yards are better than expected.

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epliew
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06-Dec-2010 16:46

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Yells: "no worries be happy !"

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did they lost the bid ?

krisluke ( Date: 02-Dec-2010 22:52) Posted:

Merrill Lynch Smiley

Too early to sell on news of Petrobras’ commercial bids Smiley

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bsiong
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06-Dec-2010 16:43

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Yells: "The Greatest Wealth is Health"

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SembMarine +0.6%; Recoups bulk of recent losses

WRITTEN BY DOW JONES & CO, INC

MONDAY, 06 DECEMBER 2010 16:11

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krisluke
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06-Dec-2010 00:11

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No worries, be happy.

Seadrill 3Q Profit Soars on Stronger Revenue

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krisluke
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05-Dec-2010 23:32

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SEMI SUBMERSIBLE RIG JACK UP RIG & AHT

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formulaone
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05-Dec-2010 21:46

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If not mistaken, smm has some interest in cosco.

but disposed some percentage during bad times.

old news already.

핫이슈

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krisluke
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05-Dec-2010 18:03

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I just read a cimb report from remisier research (friday version).

Sembmarine- keep the faith

Any one here can enlighten me the relationship between smars and cosco shipyard.

I've heard they mentioned about it from iocbc and cimb report.

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