Rising resource nationalism is bullish for Gold: HSBC

On May 6, the country will announce measures for an average 20% export tax on 14 metals in raw form including gold, copper, silver, tin, and lead, according to Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Jero Wacik. The tax is aimed at keeping refining and smelting of raw metals within the country.

" Although not an outright ban on gold exports, this is part of an  ongoing trend of growing resource nationalism seen in areas recently such as Argentina, Zimbabwe and Indonesia," the British bank added.

" This is on top of recent news in which Indonesia announced plans to strip foreign majority ownership of mining assets in favor of local ownership.  We believe the rising trend in resource nationalism is a bullish case for gold prices," HSBC concluded.

 

 

 

Gold to touch $2100/oz in Q4 2012: Deutsche Bank

The German bank also added that Gold prices to reach $1,600 an ounce in the second quarter and $1,800 in third.

According to the bank,  Central banks are proving to be a powerful source of gold demand,  significantly outstripping purchases in previous years.

“We are therefore maintaining are bullish view to the yellow metal,” the German bank added.

Deutsche Bank continued that,  the central bank activity has enabled gold to consolidate over the past six weeks  even as private-sector flows into exchange-traded products stagnated and net speculative length among futures traders fell to a three-year low.

“The decline in net length in the gold market over the past several quarters has made for a much cleaner market in our view and  we expect that despite near-term pressures in the market due to heightened EU risks  (and thus the modest outperformance of the USD vs. gold), we believe that further selling could remain subdued,” the bank concluded.

Deutsche Bank has a large presence in Europe, the Americas, Asia-Pacific and the emerging markets.

$10,000 Gold: Nick Barisheff can't hide love for safe haven

  TORONTO(Commodity Online):  'The best time to plant a tree is 20 years ago. The second best time is today', says a Chinese proverb, and it is the advice Nick Barisheff, the leading precious metal expert, would give to investors who feel that it is too late to buy gold.

Gold is the most stable form of wealth preservation for over three thousand years, and it still does today, which out performed all other asset classes since 2002, said Nick Barisheff at an event in Toronto earlier this year. Based on official estimates, America’s debt is projected to reach $23 trillion in 2015 and, if the correlation remains the same, the indicated gold price would be $2,600 per ounce.  However the gold price will be much higher, taking account of the history.

Nick Barisheff, CEO of Bullion Management Group Inc, the precious metals bullion investment company, has been actively involved in the investment and finance industry for more than 30 years. He has shifted his focus to the world of precious metals and the advantages of investing in gold, silver, platinum bullion, for the last few years. He develops investment strategies, products, services for clients looking to integrate bullion into their portfolios.

Before starting the company he was a leader in designing tax efficient structures for real investors, but later he could identify the precious metal sector as an area that held promises for investors. Through his research he developed the view that gold, platinum and silver, in bullion form, are a vital component of an investment program and should make up ten per cent of a well-diversified portfolio.

In 2002, Bullion Management Group(BMG) launched Canada's only RSP eligible mutual fund that invests directly in gold, silver and platinum bullion, the BMG BullionFund. BMG is one of the world's fast-growing precious metals bullion management companies with CDN$642 million of bullion holdings under management, that provides physical bullion-based products for investors seeking innovative and tax-efficient ways to diversify, grow and preserve their wealth.

On the 10th Anniversary of BMG fund, Nick Barisheff stated, “Although much of the attention has been on central bank purchases since they became net buyers of gold bullion in 2009, the real impetus for what I am convinced will be further rises in bullion values are the pension and insurance funds that at this point hold less than half of one per cent of their assets in gold and mining shares. Continued losses and growing pension deficits will make it mandatory for them to eventually include gold, the one asset class that is negatively correlated to financial assets such as stocks and bonds.”

For those looking for an upside target on the price of gold bullion, this fall Barisheff is launching a new book entitled: “$10,000 Gold: The Inevitable Rise and Investor’s Safe Haven”, scheduled to release in the fall of 2012. The book, published by John Wiley & Sons Canada Ltd, connects the many trends that will be directly and indirectly responsible for both the rising debt and the rising gold price over the next five years.

The book explains why the gold will continue to climb in price, makes the case for owning gold based on the precious metal strong fundamentals, shows investors how to include gold in their portfolios. It shows the readers that they can have a positive financial future regardless of how Wall Street performs, or how much purchasing power printed currencies lose.

Five thousand years of economic history demonstrates that gold is the ultimate safe haven in times of uncertainty, yet it is virtually absent from the portfolios of global pension funds and insurance companies that are responsible for trillions of dollars' worth of the world's financial assets. This makes it even more important for individual retail investors to include gold in a future-proof financial plan.

Gold to steadily decline after $1800/oz peak in Q4, 2012: RBS

NEW YORK (Commodity Online):  The Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) states in their new report that gold prices could hit a peak at $1800/oz by the last quarter of 2012. However, gold is expected to enter a period of steady decline from then, the bank warns

" As the road-map to a more normal macroeconomic environment is in sight and given gold will still be near its historical highs, we believe that investors will rotate into other asset classes”, the bank's report states while adding that gold is expected to average $1725/oz in 2012.

In such an event, platinum and palladium metals will begin to look attractive and could even outperform the yellow metal. " Our forecasts show that while gold and silver still have merit, the more industrially-driven platinum and palladium could be about to take up the running”


RBS projects palladium prices to average $725/oz in 2012 and to move into four-figures in 2013/14, subsequently breaking through its all-time highs of $1125/oz in 2015. Meanwhile, platinum prices are expected to average $1650/oz for the year. 

Gold weighed down by strong Dollar but central bank buying supports

-Gold is trading a tight range, constrained by the conflicting forces of surging global liquidity and Eurozone sovereign troubles on one side and a strong dollar and weak physical demand from India on the other. Spain’s credit downgrade last week again raised gold’s safehaven appeal, but the consequent USD strength weighed on gold demand. USD strength is likely to continue to act as a weight on the gold price in the nearterm, while the flood of central bank liquidity stimulus, concerns about pipeline inflation and ultra-low interest rates should remain structurally supportive.

-Central bank gold buying continues apace, led by emerging markets. The trend of central banks diversifying foreign reserves remains strong, with emerging market central banks at the forefront of fresh gold demand in March. Following its 99 tonne buying binge in 2011, Mexico has added another 17 tonnes to its coffers, taking the proportion of gold in its total reserves to around 4% (still low by international standards). Meanwhile, Russia purchased nearly 16 tonnes in March, taking its gold holdings to around 10% of total reserves. Gold is an under-owned asset by most emerging market sovereigns compared to major developed nations like the US (77% of foreign reserves are held in gold) and Germany (74% of reserves held in gold). In China, gold only makes up around 1.7% of total FX reserves. Gold has remained largely rangebound in recent weeks, as strong central bank purchases appear to have offset soft physical demand from India due to the jewellers’ strike.

-The widening growth gap between the US and Eurozone economies will likely be further reinforced by data releases this week with European retail sales and final PMI readings expected to reflect poorly vs US ISM manufacturing and nonfarm payroll releases. Investors will focus on the ECB meeting for signs of further easing, while five Fed speakers will present their views on the economy.

Precious metals appear to be in a holding pattern awaiting a catalyst, and industrially driven platinum group metals could be buoyed if US manufacturing and jobs numbers can continue to improve.

Source: ETF Securities report