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Dow Outlook
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
25-Jun-2013 16:07
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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A Correction or Start of Bear Trend? ....After a further pullback, the stock market will likely provide buying opportunities, Blackstone Senior Managing Director Joan Solotar said Monday. " I think we had fewer down days this year than any year in decades," she said. " This seems to be more of a correction than a protracted bear trend." On CNBC's " Fast Money," Solotar said that she was expecting " some good values" in the near-term, as stock valuations were not that expensive on a multiple basis. Next, she would be looking to quarterly earnings, which likely won't disappoint. " And if we do, then you'll probably have a further downdraft," she added. Solotar also sounded a bullish tone on housing. " We still like real estate, which is driven more by supply and demand than it is interest rates," she said. " We haven't been building enough in the United States." Several segments of the real estate industry, including single-family housing and commercial, still held promise. " But I wouldn't say that we're buying a market," she added. " Some markets look expensive." |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
25-Jun-2013 09:49
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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胡 立 阳 ： QE退 场 四 部 曲 。 。 。 。
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
25-Jun-2013 09:24
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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U.S. stocks drop sharply Dow off 140 points ....
Stocks pare some losses after comments from Fed officials
U.S. stocks ended sharply lower on Monday,
following a 5.3% tumble in the Shanghai stock market overnight spurred
by worries over China?s economy and banking system.
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
23-Jun-2013 09:55
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Hedge Funds Shift to Stocks, Just in Time for Pullback ....Hedge fund investors have begun to like stocks again—just in time for what appears to be a rough summer ahead for the equity markets. Reversing a trend that began in March 2010, hedge funds in May saw inflows to equity-based products and outflows from fixed income. The move replicates investor behavior in mutual funds, which have seen powerful streams of cash moving to stocks and away from bonds, to the extent that fixed income is poised to have one of its worst months ever. In the meantime, the S& P 500 stock market index has fallen 2.7% in June. Fund flows tell a story of a market unsure of what to make of the road ahead, as rising yields dim the allure of bonds and the threat of a liquidity withdrawal from the Federal Reserve makes stocks a tough bet as well. " Using classic fundamental analysis has been difficult in the markets that are heavily influenced by nonfundamental factors," said Peter Laurelli, vice president and head of industry research at eVestment. " We have large central banks with their monetary policies influencing global equity markets." According to the latest data from eVestment, equity strategies saw just under $4 billion in flows for the month, while fixed income strategies lost about $90 million. Pure bond funds still hold more assets than equity—$874 billion to $826 billion—in the $2.7 trillion industry, but that gap could start closing if the trends hold. Investors worry that if the Fed starts easing up on its liquidity program in which it pumps $85 billion a month into the purchases of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities, that will send yields higher and push down bond prices. Remarks Wednesday from Ben Bernanke scared markets into thinking that the pullback on QE measures would come sooner rather than later, sparking a selloff that spanned all asset classes. An equally troubling narrative for hedge funds, though, may be investor disinterest. In a year when 68% of active managers are missing their benchmarks, flows into hedge funds have hit their lowest year-to-date pace since at least 2004. At the same time, the mostly passively managed ETF universe has swelled to $1.43 trillion, an increase of 5.7% in 2013, according to XTF. " Seeing the money on the institutional side go to the passive exposure, that might be the thing that makes me think this is a longer-term shift," Laurelli said. " Seeing it one month doesn't give me ultimate faith from an actively managed standpoint that the interest is fully there." On the hedge fund side, fixed income strategies have done better over the past few years, justifying the exposure to credit. However, Laurelli said investors seem intent on pulling money, particularly in the fund of funds space. |
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appleronaldo
Member |
22-Jun-2013 16:59
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penny shares like CHINA FIBRETECH should rally on bullish formation. CASH RICH in its balance sheet. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
22-Jun-2013 16:08
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Stock Market Turbulence Won't Last: Ron Baron ....Buy-and-hold billionaire Ron Baron's message to investors: " Don't worry" about the stock market gyrations touched off by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's taper comments. Baron wrote in an email on Thursday night to CNBC's Becky Quick that he doesn't " think turbulence will last." He blamed computer trading and persistent fear among traders who " remember [the U.S.] almost had [a] Depression five years ago." The chairman and CEO of Baron Capital said America " narrowly escaped" an economic catastrophe due to the " brilliance of Bernanke" during and after the financial crisis. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 3.66% Wednesday and Thursday after the Fed chairman said policymakers could scale back the central bank's $85-billion-a-month bond-buying program later this year if the economy continues to improve. However, U.S. stock futures on Friday morning indicted a sharply higher open. Baron said he doesn't see " three-year doubles" for stocks. More like " nine or ten for market," he continued, " maybe five or six for us." With more than $20 billion under management, he said his investment firm doesn't have enough money to " take advantage of all opportunities we see." " Lots of credit" is available and " it's cheap," he said, adding that businesses are doing well, the economy is strengthening and valuations are attractive. He said Baron Capital saw record daily inflows and commitments on Thursday. When Baron last appeared on " Squawk Box" in February, he explained his investment philosophy. " Over the long term, I think the stock market is going to grow 7% a year," about the same rate as the overall economy, not adjusting for inflation, he had said, adding this has been the norm for generations and he doesn't see that changing. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
22-Jun-2013 09:29
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Insiders are buying — and that’s good news ....
Commentary: How to profit from those in the know
After a turbulent week, investors could be forgiven for believing the
stock market’s prospects are bleak. But the recent actions of certain
corporate insiders provide reasons for hope.
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
22-Jun-2013 09:20
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Dow, S& P 500 end higher, 10-year yield at 2.5% ....NEW YORK — Benchmark stock indexes ended Friday mixed even though the yield on the 10-year Treasury note jumped to 2.51%. The Dow Jones industrial average closed up 41.08 points, 0.3%, to 14,799.40. The broader S& P's 500 index finished up 4.24 points, 0.3%, to 1,592.43. The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite index ended down 0.2%, or 7.39 points, to 3,357.25 -- dragged lower by a weak-earnings plunge of 9.3% in Oracle shares. Investors remain uneasy after the market's biggest down day of the year Thursday. The Dow has tumbled about 550 points in the two trading days since Ben Bernanke signaled that the Fed could be on the verge of transitioning to a less-friendly monetary policy. And the dramatic rise in bond yields this week is a big reason why stocks remain under pressure, says Patrick Adams, portfolio manager at PVG Asset Management. Not only are bond yields heading higher, but the dramatic rise in such a short time creates massive dislocations in markets. On May 2, the 10-year note yield was at an all-time low 1.63%. By June 19, it had jumped more than half a percentage point, when the Fed hinted more strongly that it was moving toward less, not more, stimulus. Thursday and Friday, the yield, which moves inversely to the price, soared another third of a percentage point and finished the week at the highest level since August 2011. Adams would like to see the bellwether 10-year note stabilize and market volatility decline before he gets more comfortable with picking a stock market bottom. " I am watching the 10-year U.S. bond," says Adams. " It has to stabilize. If the yield goes significantly higher the market is going to freak out." Many consumer and corporate borrowing rates are linked to the yield on the 10-year note so a big jump in its yield means higher interest rates to borrow for houses, cars and company expansions. The S& P 500 is 5.6% below its all-time high reached May 22 and is the first decline of more than 5% in the broad market index since November 2012, according to Bespoke Investment Group. That marks the 18th time, the index has fallen 5% or more since the bull market began in March 2009. The average drop during the so-called " pullbacks" has been 8.3%. The two " largest" price drops during this bull market came when the " Fed was (getting) out of the market," says Bespoke co-founder Paul Hickey. Both times, when the Fed withdrew stimulus, the market suffered a drop of more than 10% -- the conventional definition of a correction. In 2010, the S& P 500 fell 10.3% from May 12 to June 7. And in 2011, the benchmark index plunged 17.3% between July 7 and August 8, Bespoke data show. As investors around the world continue adjusting to the idea of less market support – or " the end of free money" -- from central banks globally, including the Fed, the market is likely to stay volatile, says Ron Florance, managing director of investment strategy at Wells Fargo Wealth Management. " The Fed's action represents the continuing transition that is occurring in the global economy following the financial downturn and the recovery period that has followed," Florance says. " We expect financial markets to respond with a measure of volatility as the 'normalization' process unfolds." |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
21-Jun-2013 16:41
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Wall Street licks wounds after major sell-off ....U.S. stock futures shifted gear early Friday, trading higher after a turbulent prior session that saw investors on Wall Street take a beating. Dow Jones industrial average index stock futures rose 69 points to 14, 770, S& P's 500 index stock futures added 8.60 points to 1,592.50. Nasdaq 100 index stock futures tacked on 10.50 points to 2, 890.50. The Dow shed 2.3% on Thursday, its biggest loss since November 2011. The index has lost 560 points in the past two days, wiping out its gains from May and June. The S& P 500 lost 2.5%. The S& P 500 is still up 11.3%, for the year, not far from its full-year increase of 13.4% last year. But investors remained edgy about whether the U.S. Federal Reserve might start to reduce its monetary stimulus program this year, known as QE. After a lower opening Friday, the Nikkei 225 index in Tokyo reversed course to rise 1.66% at 13,230.13. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index dropped 0.72% to 20,236.43, while South Korea's KOSPI index shed 1.49% to 1,822.83. " Asia has benefited from U.S. capital inflows, partly in relation to QE. It has been force-fed with steroids, and now that the steroids are going to be pulled back, what will happen is a period of transitional volatility that can continue through summer," said Mitul Kotecha, analyst with Credit Agricole CIB. Markets in Europe were trading modestly higher Friday after experiencing sharp falls in Thursday's session. The Stoxx Europe 600 index rose 0.1% to 284. Benchmark oil for August delivery rose 38 cents to $95.22 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract fell $2.84 to close at $95.40 on the Nymex on Thursday. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
21-Jun-2013 13:38
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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4. Hyperinflation is not a risk Back to that 2.5% inflation target, the hard reality is that despite extensive simulative efforts from the Fed we are nowhere close to that mark ? and won?t hit it anytime soon. A host of very smart and well-meaning people offered up warnings of hyperinflation over the last few years but all have been proven very wrong. Based on May?s measly 0.1% increase in CPI and the fact that gasoline is the same price now as it was in 2011, it?s hard to sound the alarm on hyperinflation and sound credible in 2013. 5. Fed members don?t vote in lockstep Despite a clear target for the end of QE and consistent policy, that doesn?t mean the Fed is simply putting its head down. In fact, on Wednesday, two members of the Fed?s board ? James Bullard and Esther George ? dissented in the statement that was released. In the past Jeff Lacker, president of the Richmond Fed, has made waves for being an outspoken dissenter, too. Like Congress, the Federal Reserve is made up of different people with different opinions ? and this is a good thing because it shows that the central bank is thinking critically and challenging its own members. But too much dissent risks sowing chaos in central bank policy, and that is not something the market needs. QE and central bank efforts on this scale are uncharted territory, so it?s dangerous to paint with a broad brush with phrases like ?the Fed is just printing money.? Thinking more rationally about the nature of QE can help investors in this time of uncertainty. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
21-Jun-2013 13:34
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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2. The end of QE would be good for stocks And by the way, stocks sold off Wednesday despite overtures that the Federal Reserve won’t quit stimulus efforts, and that 14 Fed members don’t expect rate increases until 2015. This flies in the face of the notion that QE is good for stocks and the end will gut the market — because stocks should have soared on the dovish commentary if that was the case. The reason for the selloff, then, is that the persistence of QE shows lingering doubts about the sustainability of the recovery. In other words, if the central bank isn’t confident enough in growth to change policy then investors can’t be confident in growth either. Once we reach the stage where QE is drawn down or eliminated, it will be cause for celebration — not despair. 3. Quantitative easing won’t last forever Contrary to what some think, the Federal Reserve never intended to buy bonds forever. Even when it launched “QE Infinity” with an open-ended bond-buying plan, it set a hard target of 6.5% for unemployment and 2.5% for inflation as the signal that QE should stop. And Wednesday we learned that the Federal Reserve expects that 6.5% target to be hit some time in 2014. Sounds like an exit strategy to me. Of course, the Fed has been and will likely be wrong in its forecasts…but economists surveyed by USA Today before Wednesday’s Fed festival were leaning towards the Fed cutting out of QE even sooner — perhaps within six months’ time. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
21-Jun-2013 13:29
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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5 uncomfortable truths about QE .... Commentary: It’s not ‘just printing money’ Ben Bernanke speaks at a news conference following the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. The central bank was dovish in tone, however, and assured investors it would keep its bond buying program in force despite an improved outlook. As a result stocks fell in trading Wednesday after the Fed’s policy statement hit. Some may be confused by this. After all, the old saying is that “you can’t fight the Fed” so how could stocks be swimming against the stimulus efforts of the central bank? Well, the hard reality is that QE is a much more complex program than simply “printing money” to boost stocks. Here are some uncomfortable truths that investors should admit regarding Fed policy right now: 1. The rally is more than just QE Sure, the run-up in stocks since 2009 has in part been fueled by central bank policies punishing other asset classes and encouraging investment via equities. But that is not the whole story. Stocks have been — and still are — cheap based on equity risk premium as well P/E ratios (compared with levels since 1990, at least, since comparisons all the way back to 1890 are illogical). What’s more, profitability is also on the rise for many corporations thanks to cost cutting and technological advances. Saying stocks have tacked on 140% since March 2009 simply due to Ben Bernanke is a gross oversimplification. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
21-Jun-2013 10:57
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Ignore the Fed! ....... several strategists and fund managers said that the market is now paying entirely too much attention to Ben Bernanke's latest musings on tapering and not enough to how the economy and companies are actually doing. Earnings and revenue. Remember them? What's more, Bernanke stressed that any slowdown of its $85 billion-a-month asset purchase program will be gradual and that short-term rate increases are still not likely until 2015. So it seems that worries about the Fed killing the recovery and plunging the economy into another recession are misguided. " I see this as a buying opportunity. I expect a global economic rebound with the dollar getting stronger and the U.S. leading the way," said Joe Quinlan, chief market strategist with U.S. Trust in New York. " People are confusing tapering with tightening." That's a great point. Everyone wanted the Fed to plug in a destination for QE into the market's GPS. Bernanke essentially did that. It's mid-2014. .. He added that it's important for investors to remember that the Fed is still the market's friend. Bernanke (and any likely successor) won't put a halt to QE until the economy is ready to stand on its own two feet. That means that the market could continue to climb higher for awhile. " The stock market's run may be a little ahead of itself but it is still justified," Quinlan said. " It's been five years since the crash and while it's true that the economic recovery may be one of the weakest on record, it may also turn out to be one of the longest." |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
21-Jun-2013 09:02
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Fort Pitt’s Forrest said that she’s a value investor looking for mispriced yet attractive stocks to hold for at least three years, and therefore she and her colleagues aren’t selling now. “When the market swoons like this, it’s a buying opportunity,” she said. Investors should be looking for entry points, although not necessarily today, she said. Other strategists are cautious. “Near term, it is recommended investors wait for sentiment to turn extremely pessimistic before new buying,” said Bruce Bittles, chief investment strategist at R.W. Baird, in emailed comments. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
21-Jun-2013 08:54
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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U.S. stocks extend tumble on Fed taper fears ....Asian and European stocks sink, along with gold and TreasurysNEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S. stocks tumbled on Thursday, with the S& P 500 suffering its worst session since Nov 2011, hit by fear that the Federal Reserve will scale back its bond buying later this year. Asian and European stocks, along with gold, oil and Treasurys, also posted steep declines. Disappointing Chinese data further hit sentiment. After dropping as much as 380 points intraday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended down 353.87 points, or 2.3%, to 14,758.32, with all of its 30 components in negative territory. It was the Dow’s largest one-day percentage decline since Nov. 7, 2012, the day after the U.S. presidential election. And it was the index’s biggest one-day point decline since Nov. 9, 2011. The S& P 500 index dropped 40.74 points, or 2.5%, to 1,588.19, marking its biggest decline since Nov. 9, 2011. All 10 of the index’s major industry groups ended lower, with consumer staples and utilities posting the biggest declines. Volume was brisk. More than 4.8 billion shares of New York Stock Exchange-listed shares traded hands, the second-largest volume day of the year. The Nasdaq Composite lost 78.57 points, or 2.3%, to 3,364.63. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
20-Jun-2013 11:35
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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7 candidates to succeed Bernanke at Fed ....
A look at the shortlist for the next Fed chairmanship1. Christina Romer A close Obama associate, Romer, 54, was one of a few women in his inner circle, serving as chairwoman of the Council of Economic Advisers. She played, along with Larry Summers, a central role in crafting the $800 billion stimulus program in the wake of the financial crisis. An expert on monetary policy, Romer left the White House and returned to teaching at the University of California at Berkeley in 2010. She is a regular contributor to the New York Times’ “Economic View” column. 2. Alan Blinder A colleague of Bernanke’s at Princeton University, Blinder, 67, had a stormy tenure at the Fed from 1993 until 1996 under Chairman Alan Greenspan. The media, often inaccurately, portrayed Blinder as staking out positions at odds with Greenspan’s. Since leaving the Fed, Blinder has been a top macroeconomics adviser behind the scenes to Democrats. 3. Donald Kohn A career Fed official, Kohn, 70, was one of the rare staff members of the central bank to rise to the Board of Governors. A confidant of Alan Greenspan’s, Kohn was held in high regard by his colleagues at the central bank. He retired after 40 years at the Fed in 2010 and is an analyst at the Brookings Institution. 4. Lawrence Summers One of the few members of the shortlist who has never held a position at the Fed, Larry Summers, 58, joined the Clinton administration and rose to become Treasury secretary. After a stormy tenure as president of Harvard University, Summers became a key Obama adviser during the 2008 campaign, when economic issues helped decide the election. Obama tapped Summers to be his first director of the National Economic Council. He stepped down in 2010 and returned to teaching at Harvard. He is perhaps best known among some constituencies for the cameo role he played in the founding of Facebook by Harvard student Mark Zuckerberg. In the movie “The Social Network,” Summers is seen dismissing Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss’s complaints against Zuckerberg. 5. Timothy Geithner In the annals of the financial crisis, very few individuals had more impact than Geithner, 51. A protégé of former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, Geithner was president of the New York Fed when credit markets seized up in September 2008. Geithner crafted the government’s response alongside Bernanke and then–Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson. Obama tapped Geithner to be his Treasury secretary, from which post he quarterbacked the Dodd-Frank regulatory reform legislation through Congress. Geithner left the administration at the end of the first term and is writing a book based on his experiences. 6. Roger Ferguson The only African-American on the shortlist of Fed watchers, Ferguson, 61, is currently the CEO of the Teachers Insurance and Annuity Association. Ferguson served at the Fed under Alan Greenspan from 1997 until 2006. He was widely praised for his calm efficiency in the days after 9/11, when Greenspan was stuck overseas. 7. Janet Yellen A member of Bernanke’s inner circle, Yellen is a clear favorite in the race to replace Bernanke. Yellen, 66, has been helping make Fed monetary policy, with a few breaks, since 1994. Yellen, now the Fed vice chair under Bernanke, was the president of the San Francisco Fed Bank before coming back to Washington in 2010. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
20-Jun-2013 09:17
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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U.S. stocks sink, yields rise after Fed move NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S. stocks fell sharply and Treasury yields surged on Wednesday after Ben Bernanke said the central bank may scale back its bond purchases this year, depending on the economic outlook. Benchmark indexes initially cleared their losses after the Fed’s policy statement, then fell hard as Bernanke said the FOMC currently anticipates moderating the monthly pace of purchases later this year, so long as incoming data support the Fed’s forecast. “The market was looking for some kind of commitment of no tapering, and he (Bernanke) is saying the labor market is improving,” said Joe Heider, principal at Rehmann Financial in Westlake, Ohio. In its announcement, the Fed said it would continue to purchase $85 billion in bond purchases each month, but noted that the outlook for the economy and the labor market has improved since the fall. The FOMC reiterated that it was ready to hike or cut the pace of its asset buys, depending on the labor market and inflation. Stocks, which were modestly lower before the decision, fell more after the statement and forecast. They lost further ground after Bernanke, at a press conference, said depending on the economic data, “the Committee currently anticipates that it would be appropriate to moderate the monthly pace of purchases later this year.” Extending its streak of triple-digit moves into a seventh session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 206.04 points, or 1.4%, at 15,112.19. The S& P 500 index fell 22.88 points, or 1.4%, to 1,628.93. Telecommunication stocks paced declines among its 10 major sectors, with high dividend payers getting hit hardest as yields climbed. The Nasdaq Composite lost 38.98 points, or 1.1%, to 3,443.20. For every stock rising, nearly six fell on the New York Stock Exchange, where 760 million shares traded. Composite volume surpassed 3.5 billion. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
19-Jun-2013 12:10
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Market correction One last worry is that the Fed will spook markets with discussion about how fast it might exit from its ultra-easy policy stance. “Another banana peel is the Fed might tell the market too much and panic the market into a bigger selloff,” said Roberts of Street Talk. “The QE rally could come to a quick and sharp end,” Roberts said. Consumer confidence would deflate, which could dampen growth, he added. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
19-Jun-2013 12:07
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Low inflation Inflation remains below the Fed’s 2% target. The core consumer price index is up just 1.7% year-on-year in May. The central bank’s preferred measure, the index for personal consumption expenditures, is up only 0.7%. Economists disagree about the causes of the low-inflation trend, which has been in place since the Fed started its latest bond-buying program last September. Some think inflation will bounce back later this year, others are not so sure. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard has said that low inflation has been a surprise and can allow the Fed to keep up QE3. McCarthy of Jefferies said that the Fed might actually have to increase the pace of purchases to combat low inflation. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
19-Jun-2013 12:03
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Debt ceiling The last stand-off between congressional Republicans and the White House over the debt ceiling in 2011 sent stocks down 20% and pushed down GDP growth by almost a full percentage point, noted Lance Roberts, chief economist of Street Talk Advisors in Houston. So it is hard to imagine that the Fed will reduce the pace of purchases, “at least not going into” the next debate on the debt ceiling this fall, he said. Recent good news on the deficit has pushed the timing of this year’s debt ceiling clash into October, before a rough deadline in November, said Sean West, head of Eurasia Group’s U.S. practice. Despite some rough talk expected over the summer, the conventional wisdom is that the two sides will avoid a default or a crisis. “Both parties have signaled that they see little benefit in actually playing chicken with the debt ceiling, though both sides will play hard ball in advance of the deadline, West said. “This has the lowest potential for a meltdown,” West added. With the conventional wisdom not expecting a show down, any hardening of attitudes as the deadline gets closer could be a “negative surprise,” West said. So it would be a “negative surprise” if the risks of no deal rise in September, he noted. |
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