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TA-FA "Contest"
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hippoo
Member |
27-Aug-2006 00:17
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Hi, Besides getting the TA indicators from the various brokerage house, If i want to run my own analysis using data from the everyday prices and vol. for any share in excel format where can i download Or Copy from? Can anyone tell me please? |
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FORREST
Member |
26-Aug-2006 23:38
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good post everyone. my take : 50% art (psychology of market, psychology of self-control-greed, fear...etc.), 25% science and 25% luck. |
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singaporegal
Supreme |
26-Aug-2006 17:02
Yells: "Female TA nut" |
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Its 30% art, 30% science, 40% psychology i think.. Psychology is when you control your emotions and greed. |
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lewsh88
Senior |
26-Aug-2006 11:01
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Hi billywows: Your postings especially the link on "Is Technical Analysis Vodoo?" are very good and interesting. As I mentioned before, TA is more of an art to some than a science. If TA is a science, then everyone who subscribe to companies such as NextView at $90.00 a month and other such companies will be laughing to the bank and become multi millionaires within a year. I attended a preview once by NextView and they demonstrated the power of their software which can do wonders such as streaming and shortlisting overbought and oversold companies, and many other TA functions to guide you to buy or sell shares and make money. |
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billywows
Elite |
25-Aug-2006 17:00
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Its the company's business and management we are buying into when trading in shares. Focus on this statement and we are about 50% safe whether in FA or TA.. On FA, the late Khoo Teck Puat had vested (secretly) in Standard Chartered bank years ago and now what has happened? His kids are now the richest people in Singapore accordingly to Forbes. Compare to years ago, our current lifestyle is so stressful and expenses are high (damn the high oil price). So TA seems to be the better strategy for quick bucks, or hit & run as how you guys described it. However, if you do have spare cash, long term trading will make you richer in 5 to 8 years from now as over-proven by Khoo and Buffett. On which stock to buy? See the GREEN COLOR statement above - again. |
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allantanhc
Veteran |
25-Aug-2006 12:26
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Good post, billywows. There are values in both TA and FA. No disagreement on the limitations of TA. However, using FA is also never easy. A stock may look very good at this point. However, changes in macro environment, industry structure and competitions, management team, company policies may change the company's fundamentals quickly. Yet these are often beyond the reach of a retail investor. By the time you read about them in the press or SGX postings or from financial institutions and make an assessment, it is often too late and you may lose a bundle by then. Many retail investors have by then also fallen in love with their selection and they tend to listen to more favourable stories from their friends or brokers or financial analysts (who are often not so reliable and some may have an agenda themselves for telling certain stories). So, they hope that the stock will recover. Some do and some don't. The result is that a substantial proportion of your capital is locked into non-performing stocks. I believe many members in this forum have such an experience, me included. Hence, no right or wrong. You need to have certain beliefs, make certain assumptions and have an investment plan. It may not be TA purist or FA purist who will win the game. At the end of the day, what works for you may not work for others because of the different personalities, temperament and risk profiles. Most important is that tou are able to stay positive and be happy. |
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singaporegal
Supreme |
25-Aug-2006 10:43
Yells: "Female TA nut" |
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Thanks! Good article. I enjoyed reading it. |
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billywows
Elite |
25-Aug-2006 01:09
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Good, but long read on TA and FA ........ --------------------------------- Chart Your Way to Easy Street! By Do you like working? Do you like making easy, easy money? What if I told you there was a way to use simple stock charting techniques to trade your way to financial freedom? Is that something you might be interested in? Well, here are my 31 easy steps to blowing the market out of the water using charts! Come on, now, do you think I'd be writing this article if I really had those 31 steps? I can tell you for sure that if I had those 31 steps, I'd either be 1) using those stock charting techniques to make millions, or 2) enjoying the millions I made with my charting techniques by sipping daiquiris on the island of Mustique with the likes of David Bowie and Mick Jagger. But that's neither here nor there, since I'm not making millions trading on a chart system. What I can tell you, though, is that if you do a Google search for "charting," you'll find more results than you know what to do with -- 30,200,000 to be exact. There are a lot of sites that let you build charts, some that give free introductions to charting, and plenty that are selling software, systems, and courses designed to help you see those price candles for what they really are: dollar signs. Whole brokerages have been established around the idea of providing the best charting tools, and even the tried-and-true old boys of online trading have beefed up the capabilities of their charts. The Dow of TA Charting, also known as technical analysis or TA, is the study of stock prices and how they move. TA actually grew out of something called Dow Theory, which was the brainchild of Charles Dow, the first editor of The Wall Street Journal. Dow posed six basic tenets of equity markets:
Somehow, these six statements today have created RSI, head and shoulders, MFI, resistance points, MACD, bear pennants, bull flags, slow stochastics, fast stochastics, and any of a thousand other technical indicators. By using these indicators and price patterns, technical analysts are supposed to be able to figure out which direction a price is going to move and make a tidy profit in the process. Why so much fuss over technical analysis? Well, it's fast, it's sexy, and you can make or lose a whole lot of money really fast. Come to think of it -- it sounds vaguely like something else. Wait, give me a second ... Oh, yeah, gambling. Survey says! Thousands of investors surveyed, top three answers up on the board. The question: GE (NYSE: GE) -- buy, sell, or hold? SELL! Survey says: Ding! An overwhelming majority of investors say that GE is a sell. Wait, no, buy. No, sell. Hold on, hold. Yeah, hold. No, BUY!... In large part, technical analysis involves trying to predict the sentiment of the vast sea of other investors and whether they are buying and selling a given stock. So, for instance, if I'm following a chart of AMD (NYSE: AMD) and see the price begin to turn up and that turn is supported by whatever technical indicator I'm watching, then I'm hopping on the AMD train. Now, just in case it's not really rally time, I'd put a stop order to sell under my AMD purchase in case I'm wrong. That way, if AMD goes down instead of up as my technical indicators told me, it automatically sells before I lose too much money. On the other hand, if AMD does go up, I can either do a quick sell and take my small profit or push up my stop to protect the paper profit that I now have while hoping the stock continues to rise. Follow so far? If so, don't worry. These are just the basics. Since TA is not quite an exact science, part of the TA trader's mantra is being able to take losses quickly so they don't get out of control. So, the trick is that if I can keep my profits above my losses either by having more small winners than small losers or by having a few big winners to offset a lot of small losers, then I get rich, right? Well, it's not exactly that simple. First of all, the track record of being able to predict price movements based on prior price movements or chart formations is spotty at best. Additionally, technical traders moving on trends have to first see that a trend is there, so they're not in the move on the ground floor, and then they either have to make a decision to sell when the trend is still alive and moving or wait for a definite end when the price has come back down a bit. Combine the two, and you're chopping a nice bit out of the potential profit you have from a given move. And what do you have left? Well, if you do have something left at this point, don't forget the commissions you're paying on the way in and the way out. Speaking of which, brokers love day traders. Forget the voting machine If you're a fan of Ben Graham, the granddaddy of value investing and fundamental analysis, you're probably familiar with his idea that "in the short run the stock market acts like a voting machine, but in the long run it acts as a weighing machine." So while the TA fellows are trying to predict the results from the voting machine, the rest of us Fools are busy weighing the stocks that they're voting on and patiently waiting for the market to validate our measurements. So, why should a Fool skip the quick money of TA for the "measured approach" of Graham and Buffett? Well, even if I take my cynical cap off, which rarely leaves my head, and concede that some consistent profit, if not a decent amount of profit, can be made using technical analysis, I would point out that investor sentiment has a tendency to turn on a dime, so TA practitioners need to be on top of every move the market makes. This means watching every tick of the tape through the seven hours that the market is open for fear of leaving a trade on too long and getting taken to the cleaners, or missing the one great trade that would have made your day -- or your year. Sound like a full-time job? It is. So, for the "rest of us" who have day jobs and can't spend seven hours of the eight-hour work day staring at stock charts, there is fortunately the alternative of fundamental analysis. This, of course, is the fabulous method of building long-term wealth in the stock market by finding great companies whose stock is selling at a good value. This is also the type of investing that led famed Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel to say that in the long run, stocks are the numero uno, top-dog asset class for investors. Can a Fool be a fool? For the Fool who wants to fool around a bit, is it a cardinal sin to toy around with a little technical analysis? I'd say no way. I enjoy going to Vegas as much as the next guy, and when I do, I'm sure to bring some money for gambling and some money for lodging and eating. I gamble with the gambling money and feed myself with the other stash, but the money I come to gamble with is always money I can afford to lose. So, if you like the excitement and action of trying to guess the next move of a stock, by all means go for it, but a Foolish move would be to do it with money that you can absolutely stand to lose. And if you do happen to get rich off your technical trading, be sure to tell Mick I said, "Hiya." For more technical Foolishness: |
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singaporegal
Supreme |
24-Aug-2006 14:30
Yells: "Female TA nut" |
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The trend reversal for SGX came a little later than expected... but here it is anyway. |
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Nostradamus
Supreme |
22-Aug-2006 11:26
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I use TA to spot trends and buy levels. After I bought and a positive report comes out, that'll be a bonus. The price will be boosted. |
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Sporeguy
Elite |
22-Aug-2006 10:54
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I also do not have the time. Anyway, by the time the FA is out, "insiders" already take up their positions. So the public will have the third best. The TAs people will have the second best. |
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singaporegal
Supreme |
22-Aug-2006 10:42
Yells: "Female TA nut" |
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hi lewsh88, haha... yes, you can say that I am lazy. I do not have the time or patience to do research. I prefer to look at 2-3 charts and quickly come to a decision. :) |
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Lawrenchoo
Member |
17-Aug-2006 12:32
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Some people can feel this way. Actually to me is to use what you think work for you. I am more careful a person so I do both - resulting in higher probability that I get it right. My approach is to find a potential buy point by doing TA - can flip through the charts quite quickly. Then if I am not familiar with the company, read its FR and AR. If all makes sense, then I invest. Some people may say this is add legs to drawing of snakes but it works for me, so that's that. It's your money. |
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lewsh88
Senior |
17-Aug-2006 11:56
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One contention put forward by TA people is that they are lazy and anyway, whatever action (buying or selling) taken by the FA people will be reflected in the TA charts, so don't have to waste time looking at the company financial reports. True or false?? |
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singaporegal
Supreme |
16-Aug-2006 21:54
Yells: "Female TA nut" |
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Hahaha... we'll see... the downturn I predicted is a little overdue. But I believe we might see some action soon. |
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Lawrenchoo
Member |
16-Aug-2006 17:27
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This counter is very difficult to do TA on.., it always follows the STI and when STI does very well, it will just go up and vice versa. |
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Nostradamus
Supreme |
16-Aug-2006 17:05
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Price could rise to $4.20-$4.30 within the next 5 days, after which it could turn down. |
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Nostradamus
Supreme |
11-Aug-2006 23:48
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The fact that it has been going up on low volumes makes me believe that it's going to trend downwards. |
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YenYen
Member |
11-Aug-2006 23:16
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lewsh88, going by my nick, wouldn't it be brow-raising if your guess is wrong!? & she has everything to do with stocks. She ended up in jail, using money that's not hers, for stocks! Also, thanks for telling me about the TA class. Will look out for it. |
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Nostradamus
Supreme |
11-Aug-2006 22:36
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The candlestick chart shows a false break above the 100day EMA. However, using closing price, it's still under the 100day EMA. So still trapped. |
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