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PALM OIL STOCKS
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investor38
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13-Aug-2008 17:59
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Palm Oil Rebounds From 10-Month Lows on Gains in Soybean Oil By Feiwen Rong Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Palm oil futures in Malaysia advanced for the first day in four, from a 10-month low, on gains in the price of soybean oil, its main competitor. Palm oil, used in food and biofuels, often tracks the performance of soybean oil. Soybean oil also climbed for the first day in four, rising 1.2 percent to 51.40 U.S. cents a pound at 1:20 p.m. Singapore time in after-hours electronic trading on the Chicago Board of Trade. ``Palm oil is up because soybean oil prices advanced above 50 cents a pound,'' Kan Heen Sing, trader at HLG Futures Sdn., said by phone from Kuala Lumpur today. ``But sentiment is mixed as crude oil seems to be unsteady and may decline further.'' Palm oil for October delivery gained 1.3 percent to 2,595 ringgit ($784) a metric ton on the Malaysia Derivatives Exchange. The contract fell to 2,561 ringgit yesterday, the lowest since October 2007. The tropical oil has slumped 42 percent from its March 4 record. Stockpiles in Malaysia, the second-largest producer of the commodity, dropped 2.8 percent in July as exports picked up, led by demand from China. They reached a record 2.04 million tons in June, according to the Malaysian Palm Oil Board. Exports in the first 10 days of August were 23 percent higher than the same period last month, Societe Generale de Surveillance, an independent cargo surveyor, has estimated. A separate report by Intertek showed a 15 percent increase. ``Strong global demand for palm oil, especially from developing countries, is expected to continue,'' Franky Widjaja, chairman and chief executive officer at Golden Agri-Resources Ltd., a unit of Indonesia's biggest oil-palm grower, said at a press conference yesterday. Demand for biodiesel ``acts as a floor'' for palm oil prices provided that the price of crude oil remains high, Widjaja said. To contact the reporter for this story: Feiwen Rong in Singapore at Frong2@bloomberg.net |
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investor38
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13-Aug-2008 17:33
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How much palm oil is used in biofuel is a factor of crude oil prices and CPO prices. If crude oil prices remains high above US$100 and CPO prices is around R2500/tonne or lower. then biodiesel as a alternative fuel becomes attractive. In other words, high palm oil prices does not favour its use as an alternative fuel. That's what the Malaysian Commodity Minister Datuk Peter Chin is suggesting in the article below. Excess supply of palm oil can be mop up in the market to be converted to biofuel. This has the advantage of catering to the country's energy needs and at the same time stabilise and prevent palm oil prices from going down too low. All these of course only viable if crude oil price remains at a reasonable level of say $US 100 and above.
'Current CPO price conducive for biodiesel output' The current crude palm oil price (CPO), which is hovering at RM2,500 per tonne, is conducive to introduce biodiesel in Malaysia, according to Plantation Industries and Commodities Minister Datuk Peter Chin Fah Kui.
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Sporeguy
Elite |
13-Aug-2008 16:12
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Anyone know how much of CPO is used as alternative fuel to CO ? If say, 10% of CPO is used as alternative (or a mixture) to CO, then the effect of CO is not that strong. But it say 30% of CPO is used as alternative to CO, then the effect is great ? The question is how much is the actual correlation between CPO and CO? Or is it that people start to realise that the CPO stocks have dropped to a very attractive price ? May be the drop is too much (50%) in comparison to CO price (dropped by 22%). These are just my thoughts. Caveat Emptor. |
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investor38
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13-Aug-2008 14:19
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IEA Increases Its Global Oil Demand Forecast for 2009 (Update1)
By Grant Smith Aug. 12 (Bloomberg) -- The International Energy Agency, an adviser to 27 nations, raised its forecast for global oil demand next year and said it expects Chinese oil consumption to rise after the Olympic Games. The IEA increased its forecast by 70,000 barrels to 87.8 million barrels a day, the Paris-based agency said today in its monthly report. Last week's pipeline explosion in Turkey may cut output from Azerbaijan by 30 percent this quarter and supplies are further threatened by military action in Georgia. ``We're still looking at a pretty buoyant picture in 2008, 2009 in China,'' David Fyfe, the IEA's supply analyst, said in a telephone interview. ``We are seeing a two-tiered market'' with emerging economies surging and developed markets flagging. Chinese oil demand is expected to increase 5.7 percent next year as consumers in the world's fastest-growing major economy spend more on travel. ``Minor revisions'' to global growth forecasts, and expectations for rebuilding of depleted heating oil inventories in Germany also contributed to adjustments to world demand, the IEA said. ``Recent trends in Chinese crude runs suggest a possibility of stronger than expected demand, pre-Olympic stockpiling or both,'' the report said. Chinese demand ``will likely rebound'' with the lifting of measures to curb pollution during the Olympics, it said. Unchanged Oil traded in New York reached a record $147.27 a barrel on July 11. Oil for September delivery was at $113.60 a barrel as of 11:59 a.m. London time today on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The agency projects demand growth for 2009 at 1.1 percent, from 1 percent last month, while the rate for this year remains unchanged at 0.9 percent. The Chinese government had closed oil refineries and coal- fired power stations and reduced vehicle traffic before the Olympic Games to improve air quality. Fuel use will likely recover when these facilities are reopened after the event, the IEA said. The country's demand trends for the second half of the year remain ``remarkably opaque,'' the report said. Once the games finish refiners may curb imports, or the government may raise fuel costs for consumers. Alternatively the return of one million cars removed from Beijing's roads during the tournament may bolster demand, the IEA said. Supply Forecast Oil has retreated 22 percent from a record after swelling fuel costs prompted motorists to drive less and airlines to scale back routes. Emerging economies from China and India to Indonesia are raising prices to rein in use of subsidized fuels. The IEA also boosted its projections for supply from outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries by about 100,000 barrels a day this year, and next, on an improved outlook for North Sea and U.S. projects. Non-OPEC suppliers will provide 50.1 million barrels a day this year and 50.8 million in 2009. The agency lowered its estimate for Azeri crude oil and natural gas liquid extraction by 255,000 barrels to 860,000 barrels a day in the third quarter. The nation's 2008 output was cut by 55,000 barrels a day to 1.02 million barrels. OPEC, which supplies more than 40 percent of the world's oil, will need to provide about 31.6 million barrels a day this year to balance world supply and demand, the report showed. That's about 100,000 barrels a day less than it estimated last month. The IEA left its estimate for next year's so-called ``call on OPEC crude'' unchanged at 31.1 million barrels a day. Saudi Arabia, the biggest producer in OPEC, has agreed twice this year to increase its own daily production in an attempt to curb the rise in oil prices. The group pumped 32.8 million barrels a day last month, 145,000 barrels a day more than in June, according to IEA estimates. To contact the reporters on this story: Grant Smith in London at gsmith52@bloomberg.net Last Updated: August 12, 2008 07:18 EDT If this report is accurate, Crude oil prices and CPO prices is unlikely to fall much after such a drastic correction. The best scenario in my opinion is for crude oil prices to remain steady at 100 to 110 so as to allow a steady recovery of the world economy without the risk of runaway inflation because of high oil prices. Plantation counters traded on the STI having corrected about 50% from their peaks should see a gradual uptrend from here. They are all in grossly oversold position. Good time to go in for long term hold. Just my opinion. Caveat Emptor. |
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Naproxen
Veteran |
01-Aug-2008 11:04
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What happened to Golden Agri today ???????????? | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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des_khor
Supreme |
01-Aug-2008 10:36
Yells: "Tell me who is the God or MFT from this forum??" |
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sometime really don't know what to say all this banks always come out all kind of target price ?? just tell them to ask themself if they can predict what will happen in future , why most of them hardly hit by US subprime ??? They also can't take own care by themself !! ( in hokkien ) |
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investor38
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01-Aug-2008 10:26
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SINGAPORE, August 1 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs has raised its target price for palmoil trader Wilmar International (WLIL.SI: Quote, Profile, Research) to S$6.20 from S$6 to reflect higher crude palm oil refining margins, and kept its "buy" rating. "Despite the recent sell-down, we remain positive on the outlook for crude palm oil prices on the back of rising oil prices, increased biodiesel utilization rates, and higher soybean prices," Goldman Sachs analysts Patrick Tiah and Nikhil Bhandari said in a research note. The bank believes Wilmar's second quarter 2008 earnings could be higher than expected, although the market appears to forecast a sharp decline in profits due to seasonally lower refining margins. Shares of Wilmar closed at S$4.41 on Thursday. (Reporting by Charmian Kok; Editing by Clarence Fernandez) Agribusiness giant PT Sampoerna Agro saw a 176 percent increase in sales in the first semester from a year earlier, thanks to a huge increase in prices and sale volume of crude palm oil (CPO CRUDE palm oil (CPO) futures prices on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended higher yesterday on strong export data, dealers said. According to Societe General de Surveillance, exports of Malaysian palm oil products for July 2008 increased 26.2 per cent to 1,396,739 tonnes from 1,106,635 tonnes shipped last month. Intertek Testing Services reported that exports of Malaysian palm oil products for July rose 27 per cent to 1,378,537 tonnes from 1,086,572 tonnes shipped in June. The dealers said that CPO prices recently weakened due to increased stockpile but the outlook for CPO futures will remain above RM3,000 per tonne. This was based on the issue of high production which will soon be resolved when countries such as China reloaded its reserves to meet additional food demand for the Beijing Olympics next month, one of the dealers said. “As for India and the Middle East, buyers tend to stock up at least two months before the festive season due to start in early September,” he said. For the CPO contract prices, August 2008 gained RM50 to RM3,050 per tonne, September 2008 added RM55 to RM3,044 per tonne, October 2008 surged RM58 to RM3,050 per tonne and November 2008 increased RM54 to RM3,050 per tonne. Volume rose to 12,067 lots from 9,590 lots on Wednesday but open interest declined to 58,317 contracts from 58,698 contracts previously. On the physical market, August South ended higher at RM3,090 per tonne compared to RM3,020 per tonne previously. |
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investor38
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31-Jul-2008 11:32
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Take a look at this article; comments quite positive for palm oil Thursday July 31, 2008Kim Loong bullish despite price downtrendPETALING JAYA: Kim Loong Resources Bhd is optimistic that the current downtrend in crude palm oil (CPO) prices will not hurt its profit for the financial year ending Jan 31 (FY09).Executive chairman Gooi Seong Lim said the company had locked in 25% of total CPO production up to December at RM3,400 a tonne and was not under pressure at this juncture. He said even if CPO price were to drop to below RM3,000 a tonne and sustain for six months, its overall average price would still be relatively higher than RM3,000 this year against RM2,500 last year. “The company is confident that the current downtrend in CPO price is temporary and anticipates it (CPO price) would not take long to shoot up again,” he said after the company AGM and EGM yesterday.  Kim Loong MD Gooi Seong Heen (left) and Gooi Seong Lim at the AGM With a relatively tight national palm oil stock and uncertain soybean production, coupled with poor weather in the US, the tight vegetable oil supply would push CPO price back to its high. Asked if Kim Loong would further lock in its production, Gooi said: “We will not sell below RM3,000 per tonne and do not think it's necessary as the CPO price downtrend is unlikely to stay anyway.” On its diversification into the palm nutraceuticals project, which involves the extraction of tocotrienol concentrates (a vitamin E concentrate), he said Kim Loong was currently busy building the distribution network to market the product. “We are also in the process of capsuling the vitamin E product, which is in a soft gel form,” Gooi said, adding that the current production capacity of tocotrienols at its Kota Tinggi plant in Johor was 3,000 tonnes per year. “We hope to find a niche market for tocotrienols in Japan, the US and China,” Gooi said. The company also plans to sell in bulk to local pharmaceutical companies with strong network. “We estimate a profit contribution from the palm nutraceuticals project of RM3mil to RM4mil yearly and return on investment in three to four years,” he said. Meanwhile, Kim Loong is investing RM10mil each in a new solvent extraction plant for palm kernel in Kota Tinggi and another for fibre oil in Keningau, Sabah, for its downstream business. On dividend payout, Gooi said Kim Loong had paid out 23 sen per share for FY09 to date, higher than its total dividend of 18 sen per share for FY08. |
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trader88.sg
Veteran |
30-Jul-2008 19:13
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Good info. Except the highlight in green not readable. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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jackjames
Elite |
30-Jul-2008 17:22
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very good post, thank you. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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investor38
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30-Jul-2008 16:51
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The US could buy a million tonnes this year, says the Malaysian Palm Oil Council, adding that so far in the first half of 2008, Malaysia has shipped more than 450,000 tonnes there CONSUMERS in America are increasingly accepting palm oil's health benefits, as seen in the rise of shipments to the US, according to the Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC). "Palm oil nutrition awareness is gaining momentum there," MPOC deputy chief executive officer Dr Kalyana Sundram told Business Times in an interview in Petaling Jaya recently. Palm oil in its natural form does not contain any trans fat and thus, is a healthy alternative fat for making bakery shortenings, confectionery fats and margarine that go into baked and processed foods like chocolates and cookies. In California, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger announced that from January 1 2010, all 88,000 restaurants in the state will be prohibited from using oil, margarine and shortening containing trans fats. Retail baked goods have an additional 1-year grace period until January 1 2011. Packaged food, however, are exempted. In New York, all bakeries and restaurants in the city have since July 1 been ordered to stop using hydrogenated oils in crackers, candies, cookies, snack foods and deep-fried desserts. Philadelphia and Seattle are two other cities to have done the same. The rising palm oil consumption in the US is helped, in part, by the US government's move to mandate declaration of saturated fat and trans fat levels separately on nutritional labels from January 1 2006. According to the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), eating saturated fat and trans fats raises low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels. This means, trans fats - listed on food labels as partially hydrogenated vegetable oil - can raise bad cholesterol and lower healthy cholesterol, increasing the risk of heart attacks. Many food manufacturers in the US add hydrogen, in the presence of a chemical catalyst, to soya oil and canola to harden them into bakery fats. Hydrogenation increases the melting point of fats and gives food a longer shelf life but it results in harmful trans fats. The FDA warned that these artificial trans fat is so common that the average American eats about 2kg of artery-clogging trans fat in a year. Palm oil, on the other hand, is a healthier choice for use in processed food because it is not genetically modified and does not contain harmful trans fat. Rising palm oil consumption in the US could also be attributed to a patented fat blend that uses up to 50 per cent palm oil, discovered by Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) and Brandeis University biomedical scientists Dr Kalyana Sundram and Dr K.C. Hayes, 13 years ago. They had since licensed US Nasdaq-listed Smart Balance Inc to market the patented blend in America. Last year, Smart Balance posted US$160 million (RM521.60 million) in margarine sales alone. While it is not the No.1 margarine brand in the US, Smart Balance is fast eating into its rivals' market share because the patented blend is proven to help improve cholesterol ratios. "Since 1996, Smart Balance has been paying royalty to MPOB and Brandeis University for the patented blend. This will expire in 2015," Dr Kalyana Sundram said. When asked to estimate America's increasing appetite for Malaysian palm oil, he replied: "This year, the US could buy a million tonnes. So far, in the first half of this year, we've shipped more than 450,000 tonnes there. "A million tonnes is not much because it is less than three per cent of the total edible oils consumption there. There is still tremendous growth potential." Palm oil is richer in mono-unsaturated and poly-unsaturated fatty acids than any other saturates, even more than the average olive oil. When it comes to blood cholesterol, palm oil is scientifically proven to be just as heart healthy as olive oil. In Malaysia, fastfood outlets like Dunkin' Donuts, Burger King, McDonald's Corp, Wendy's, Kenny Rogers Chicken Roasters, Starbucks, A&W, KFC and Pizza Hut have long been using trans fat free palm oil in their food preparation. The above article should be quite encouraging for holders of palm oil counters. Import from America is likely to increase over the years. Looks like the long term prospect of palm oil is good. As more and more consumers realise the risks of consuming trans fat and its strong correlation with coronary artery disease (heart attacks), strokes; the demand for a healthier choice like palm oil will go up. So the saying goes; nothing is more important than health. A lower but more sustainable crude palm oil price will also make it more viable for its use as a biofuel. |
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Fishcake
Member |
28-Jul-2008 10:18
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Hopefully this will help to stablish the CPO prices ---------------------------------------- KUALA LUMPUR : Malaysia will put in place a series of measures to stabilise plummeting global palm oil prices including selling off crude stocks, a report said on Sunday. Peter Chin, minister of plantation industries and commodities, told the Sunday Star newspaper the government wanted to make sure that the almost 25-percent drop in prices in recent months did not become a long-term trend. "The ministry expects palm oil to contribute up to 60 billion ringgit (19 billion dollars) in revenue to the country's coffers this year, but the substantial drop in the global price may upset this target," he said. "We are worried this may be the start of a further decline in the price of palm oil and we will take counter-measures to maintain a good price," the newspaper quoted him as saying. In the past week, palm oil prices fell to 3,095 ringgit per tonne from 3,500 ringgit. The price early this year was at 4,000 per tonne. Chin said Malaysia will export crude - not refined - palm oil to China, India, Pakistan and the Middle East. It will also increase exports to Western countries where palm oil can be used as bio-fuel during the upcoming northern hemisphere winter, he said. Chin said other measures include increasing the usage of crude palm oil for bio-fuel production in Malaysia. Oil palm cultivation occupies 67 percent of Malaysia's total agricultural land, and some 500,000 people are engaged in the sector. Malaysia hopes palm oil production will hit 20 million tonnes by 2020. - AFP/de |
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investor38
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24-Jul-2008 21:27
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Insider buying up of FR and Goldenagri bodes well for palm oil stocks in general. If crude oil prices stabilises or goes back up again, there will be another big scramble back into commodities to hedge against inflation.
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investor38
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24-Jul-2008 16:43
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Agriculture Commodity futures besides palm oil all in positive territory. |
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AK_Francis
Supreme |
24-Jul-2008 15:50
Yells: "Happy go lucky, cheers." |
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in that case, Kencahna Agri, initial IPO of 0.35cts got chance to climb tomorrow while commences trading. anyone, heng heng kena ballotted? though the offer to public is small qty. |
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investor38
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24-Jul-2008 15:49
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Error: I mean support for CPO rather crude oil. |
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investor38
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24-Jul-2008 15:44
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CPO futures rebounding despite crude oil price dropping. Looks like support of crude oil is there. Decoupling from crude oil prices. Shortist better watch out for reversal..
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investor38
Senior |
24-Jul-2008 09:59
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A lower crude oil prices is actually positive for palm oil counters. The greatest problem of high crude oil prices is the resultant high inflation that will have a dampening effects on world wide economic growth and even trigger a recession. All businesses will be impacted including the palm oil industries. With the fall of CPO prices to a more reasonable level, palm oil demand may actually increase because it is now more worthwhile to develop it as an alternative source of alternative fuel. The recent drop in crude oil prices takes away some of the speculative element of its recent high prices. A Lehman report release yesterday shares the same view and in fact it has a buy call on Wilmar. Therefore good time to accumulate Golden agri, Indo agri, FRand Wilmar at low prices before release of results and re rating of counter. Just my opinion. Caveat emptor. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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investor38
Senior |
22-Jul-2008 14:39
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CPO futures turning positive. Should be positive for palm oil counters which should be moving up after recent sharp correction. Caveat emptor . | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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investor38
Senior |
22-Jul-2008 12:10
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Volume Distribution chart shows significant big volume buy up even at 1.88. Yesterday's chart showed more buy up than sell down indicating collection in progress since yesterday. Palm oil counters in Malaysia probably also sold down because of political uncertainty. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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