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Victorian2 kantangs for 2nd half of the year
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TradeChancellor
Veteran |
09-Aug-2007 17:21
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Thanks Victor for your advice. Really appreciate your help in organizing the 4Aug session and sacrificing time and energy in helping value investors wannabes like me. My name is Woo Tsung Liang, my hp and email is in the 4Aug list. Stay in contact. regards, tsung liang. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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victorian2
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09-Aug-2007 15:52
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Repost: Here's an amended repost of the my kantang's revised for the 2nd half of the year. Some I've large positions in the last 7weeks & some exited to take advantage of large price movements ie false breakouts/whipsaws, I'm waiting to re-enter at the right time or add more positions when the dust settle a little more. Looking at the way the US markets are reacting. It's quite clear sub-prime is being put back into the back burner as usual & bad results absorbed & further provisions made so it'll be price into the market as usual. What I've done is to take into consideration what has taken place in the last 2-3 weeks to affect the shareholding composition & those that were on the verge of breaking but got shot down......I will need the next 2-3 weeks to get the team to do further writeups individually and factor in all the reporting results of the coys. Kantangs Money Flow Idex (MFI) still above 60s CEI (57), Action Asia (73), East Tech (78), PNE (76), Hiap Hoe (56), SMB (65), Metal Component (54) The above were poised to surge but went down on very thin vol in the last 2 weeks with the exception of East Tech which had lots of contras/force selling took place in the last 5-10days. The other stocks that have declining MFIs below 50s BBs continue to flush out weak holders & forced margins calls are as follows even when the market is recovering. it's just this course of actions that BB will use to consolidate their hold/cornering of the stock for a more sustained ride up in the later stage. a. 2nd chance , b. Nippecraft , c. Eng Kong, d. Poh Tiong Choon e. Penguin, f. Kings SW, g. Allied Tech, h. Casa, i. 8telecom j. Oniontech, k. Pharmesis All in all, there are 18 stocks above I'm watching and monitoring very closely their fundamentals and their cashflow. All have positive cashflow with the exception of Guangzhuo. The 1st half results of these counters will tell a lot how much emphasis are they placing on growing profit vis-a-vis operating, finaning and investing cashflow. Usually, the strive to improve net profits have some correlation to a negative cashflow. That's another sign that coy is moving towards shareprice managment on the upwards. High operating cashflow with large capex, provisions etc have the effect of lowering net profits & even cause losses to "hide profit" legally. By end of August, these numbers would be clear. Almost all the 2nd set of kantangs had some form of 2-3 breakouts to tighten the float. This mini-meltdown is perfect for them to tighten the screws on the float even harder weeding out lots of contras & weakholders & they will continue to do so during this period, depressing the prices all around deliberatly. So piece of advice, if u can hold on to your stocks, hold as most of these are now trading at book value or even discount. It's makes them very attractive once again Basserahmed, I've decided to drop EDMI, ASA as I want to see their results 1st before commenting further esp ASA. The rest, I've seen 1st quarter results in May for some & they look good from proftaiblity & cashflow perspective esp 8telecom & Guangzhuo from profit levels & Action Asia from cashflow Pharmesis, luxking and Spindex are still on my list. Just that they have damn tight floats & very hard to collect the stock meaningfully with major price movements. They also have limited brokerage margin support esp SPindex & Pharmesis. Only one brokerage with significant margin support. Sorry. miss them out |
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victorian2
Senior |
09-Aug-2007 15:03
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As one can see, there has been 1. serious accumualtion of the stock since the published annual report in March 16. more than 131m done in the last 5mths (with the exception of last 7 trading days) hence stock is seriously cornered. 2. a price spread from 9.5c to a high of 18c and it hover between 15c to 17c for a few weeks in june before showing signs of a major break above 18c after 3 false breakout. One in 20 June and another in 14th July but broke down after the 1st sell down on 16thJuly and the last one 24th July with the 2rd selldown on the 25th July. If not for these two big sell downs, AA was poised to break just like Easttech, Metal component, Casa and CEI. *sigh* 3. To demonstrate how cornered this stock is now. From 29 July to 080807 or 7 market days just about 5m was traded or about 750 lots a day with the big selldown just generating 380lots. Pricemovements were very deliberartly by BB to create panic to induced forced selling in the last 3 days with deliberate shorts but bounced back yesterday 2 1/2c. If the stock was not cornered, the selling down in vol would be very pronouned like East Tech and any other top 30 speculatives. 4. In my opinion, this counter is one that will bid its time & will act when the time is right with the correct newsflow, results etc. OCBC securities has a 4m margin cap on this, UOB KH has a C grade margin on this counter which means a single account has up to $1m with borrowed funds of $700k to fund injection of just $300k. For OCBC securities, at 4m, each margin account has margin access for 4m shares so at 15c, that's $600k in total with funding facilities of $400k for $200k cash. That's very serious firepower for the BB to tap on from OCBC and UOB KH. -------------------------------------------------- In conclusion, Action Asia has what it takes to be a good blockbuster in the 2rd half of the year. a. serious liqudity ie funds from 2 major houses OCBC and UOB KH for BB and investing public b. growing & highly growing operating cashfllow showing 2yr restructuring efforts are bearning fruit c. proven evidence of serious shareholder action in the early accumualtion phase with 3 false breakouts... shut down by early US events. d. MFI even at this stage is at 73.. showing money is in the counter. e. the thin sell quotes above 13c ie 20lots, 50lots, 40lots truely shows a cornered stock that has been controlled by the BB downwards just to seriously play punk with ppl like me that has large positions and want to kick me out... hahahah similar situations like SMB earlier in the year, PTCL and Eng Kong. Nothing new to me. Next week barring some stability in the US markets, I'm readying my guns for some serious averaging from my avg 15.5 cost. till the next counter and all kudos to Rosanne, one of my research assistants who has done a good job doing the 1st cut research on this counter. |
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victorian2
Senior |
09-Aug-2007 15:01
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Action Asia Part II: Shareholder Analysis and 4 month trading patterns 1 Year Stock Price High: 0.18 Low: 0.07 6-mth Stock Price High: 0.175 Low: 0.09 Shareholder Structure
Top 20 Shareholders
Note: All changes in shareholdings are only for the top 10 shareholders ------------------------------------------- Trading volumes in the last 4 mths & 3 weeks
As one can see, there has been 1. serious accumualtion of the stock since the published annual report in March 16. more than 131m done in the last 5mths (with the exception of last 7 trading days) hence stock is seriously cornered. 2. |
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baseerahmed
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09-Aug-2007 12:25
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victorian2 : just curious ... have the following been dropped from ur watchlist : ASA group, EDMI, Luxking, Pharmesis and Spindex ....? | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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victorian2
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09-Aug-2007 12:19
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reposting : Screwed up format due to the excel spreadsheet in earlier post. (can someone notify admin to remove earlier post. Can't seem to notify admin) ------------------------------------------- Action Asia Ltd Core Business Action Asia was founded in 1987. It is an investment holding company and has subsidiaries in Malaysia, China, Hong Kong and Singapore. Its principal activities are the design, manufacture and assembly of audio and video entertainment products incorporating innovations such as Thin Film Transistor-Liquid Crystal Display (TFT-LCD) technology and can be categorised into mobile entertainment products and portable indoor and outdoor products. Mobile entertainment products are mainly used in automobiles and commercial vehicles while their portable indoor and outdoor division produces for homes and hospitals. Its sales are primarily derived from US and are sold mainly to customers who in turn sell them to automobile manufacturers/dealers, automobile accessories dealers and hypermarkets in the US. Year Event 2004 Listed on SGX Incorporated Shanghai Action Tech Co., Ltd Incorporated Action Singapore Pte Ltd 2005 Incorporated Action Asia (Shenzhen) Co. Ltd Incorporated ASD Electronics Ltd (51%) 2006 Acquired Action-Tek Sdn. Bhd. (100%) Incorporated Action Multimedia Solutions Sdn. Bhd. Management Team Dato? Peng Chiun Ping (Non-Executive Chairman) - Bachelor?s Degree in Accounting from Tamkang University in Taiwan - Appointed on November 26, 2003 Peng Wen Chih (Managing Director) - Bachelor?s Degree in Business Administration from Tamkang University in Taiwan - Appointed on January 31, 2003 Dato? Lai Pin Yong (Executive Director) - Former Intel and Motorola Vice-President - Appointed on November 10, 2005 Hew Koon Chan (Independent Director) - Appointed November 16, 2006 - Current MD of Integer Capital Pte Ltd Li Yuan Chen @ Jack Li (Independent Director) - Bachelor?s degree in Accounting from Fung Chia University and a Graduate Diploma in Business from the National Australian Maritime College. - Appointed on January 31, 2003 Yung Pang, Hsu (Independent Director) - Masters Degree in Finance from the National Chenchi University. - Appointed on January 7, 2005 Competitive Edge Has an experienced management with the Managing Director having more than 29 years of experience in the electronics manufacturing business. Key executives have also between 7 and 25 years of experience. 2. Has the ability to integrate components with multi-function capabilities such as performing system integration of TFT-LCD panel, integrated circuit unit, CPU and DVD player, allowing our finished products to perform multiple functions. This requires experience and technical know-how. Action Asia was granted pioneer status for the manufacture of Digital Versatile Disc players with colour television LCD receivers/monitors in Malaysia for a period of 5 year commencing 1 March 2003. It also has the capability to develop the CPU and MCU software for use in the products to better customise the products for customers. 3. Has good relationships with customers resulting in a high level of repeat orders. Financials Price (As at 17 July 2007) 0.17c as of 17th July & 12.5c as of 080807
Action Asia featured prominently in my mid-term porfolio ie 6-9mths for the following financial reasons : 1. restructuring stock/recovery stock 2. Operating cashflow for 1st Quarter of this year is highly positive. $3.25m (number in red above) as compared for the whole year of 2006.If they continue to deliever such operating cashflow with hardly any financing & investing cashflow, they are on their way to solid profitablility. 3. Losses are due to continued provisions or writedowns which are accounting treatment. The diversification of markets will lower these numbers. Cost control is also featuring very prominently in the restructuring efforts in the last 2 years. 4. Look at their cash per share. 7.3c per share. Another Nippecraft type. So nutshell from a financial standpoint. cost restructuring, revenue/market diversifications, highly positive operating cashflow to prove tangible efforts in restructuring and lots and lots of cash in the bank. at 12.5c close, it's a steal once again just under its NTA. --------------------- In my next post, I'll focus on shareholder changes...... the greatest predictor of historical, current and future share price movements other than charts. |
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victorian2
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09-Aug-2007 11:09
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TradeChancellor, I have been getting similar requests from those who attended for a more drilldown course but it will take several sessions, theories, practical, similution and casestudies with the charts/price actions history & correlation with newsflow. Even got one who tailored a suggested course outline when I asked him what he was looking for. I'm thinking about it but will this time keep the group smaller plus get the right people for certain aspects. I also am training a group of young but solid group facilitators so I need a bit of time for that. I'm looking at early September to October. Like I've said, last sat was just a intro and I'm happy to have started off well. Off course, I'm sorry to have disappointed those who were looking for stock tips but that is not the objective. I want to teach ppl how to fish, not to give stock tips. If that's the case, better listen to your broker, he will give better tips than me. I'm just the boring FA guy that doesn't need to much excitement in the market. |
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TradeChancellor
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09-Aug-2007 04:10
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Hi Victor, I have attended your Intro to FA last Saturday and found it to be extremely good. I am wondering if you are able to help me by recommending anyone or maybe yourself to give tuition services for me as I am struggling to tabulate certain FA figures like ROE, PE ratio etc from a company's latest finanical results e.g 2Q raw data. I am thinking of a few tuition sessions so that after the few lessons, i can tabulate figures from raw data in the future and understand concepts better. Thanks for your advice. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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victorian2
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09-Aug-2007 03:17
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Here's an amended repost of the my kantang's revised for the 2nd half of the year. Some I've large positions in the last 7weeks & some exited to take advantage of large price movements ie false breakouts/whipsaws, I'm waiting to re-enter at the right time or add more positions when the dust settle a little more. Looking at the way the US markets are reacting. It's quite clear sub-prime is being put back into the back burner as usual & bad results absorbded & further provisions made so it'll be price into the market as usual. What I've done is to take into consideration what has taken place in the last 2-3 weeks to affect the shareholding composition & those that were on the verge of breaking but got shot down......I will need the next 2-3 weeks to get the team to do further writeups individually and factor in all the reporting results of the coys. Kantangs Money Flow Idex (MFI) still above 60s CEI (57), Action Asia (73), East Tech (78), PNE (76), Hiap Hoe (56), SMB (65), Metal Component (54) The above were poised to surge but went down on very thin vol in the last 2 weeks with the exception of East Tech which had lots of contras/force selling took place in the last 5-10days. The other stocks that have declining MFIs below 50s BBs continue to flush out weak holders & forced margins calls are as follows even when the market is recovering. it's just this course of actions that BB will use to consolidate their hold/cornering of the stock for a more sustained ride up in the later stage. a. 2nd chance , b. Nippecraft , c. Eng Kong, d. Poh Tiong Choon e. Penguin, f. Kings SW, g. Allied Tech, h. Casa, i. 8telecom j. Oniontech All in all, there are 18 stocks above I'm watching and monitoring very closely their fundamentals and their cashflow. All have positive cashflow with the exception of Guangzhuo. The 1st half results of these counters will tell a lot how much emphasis are they placing on growing profit vis-a-vis operating, finaning and investing cashflow. Usually, the strive to improve net profits have some correlation to a negative cashflow. That's another sign that coy is moving towards shareprice managment on the upwards. High operating cashflow with large capex, provisions etc have the effect of lowering net profits & even cause losses to "hide profit" legally. By end of August, these numbers would be clear. Almost all the 2nd set of kantangs had some form of 2-3 breakouts to tighten the float. This mini-meltdown is perfect for them to tighten the screws on the float even harder weeding out lots of contras & weakholders & they will continue to do so during this period, depressing the prices all around deliberatly. So piece of advice, if u can hold on to your stocks, hold as most of these are now trading at book value or even discount. It's makes them very attractive once again |
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