( ShareJunction Request & Review 8 )( By Simon Loh )( 6 Mar 07 )

Forumer 22 à Fortunegal  ( Posted 8 Feb 07, 1329 hrs )

Reminder for you à Once thing I like to remind you is that when we are in this stock market game, we have to be very very flexible in maneuvering yourself according the the real life & time situation.  The market is ever changing & never fixed ? and when we deal with it ? we also have to be so !  Sometimes, you may have to be as hard as rock and sometimes as soft as water.  As you put water in any shape of a pot or flask, it would take its shape there.  When the market is bullish, we can Cheong ? when the market is unclear, we may have to wait a while or stay sideline, when the market is in doldrums or early stage of its sharp correction like right now, then we may have to exit or stay out for the moment, till the dust fully settle down, then we go in again.  There is no fixed formula or rules on how to be flexible when tackling with the stock market, it all just come through many many years of trading, experiences, concepts learning + many other factors before you can fully master the skill.  It an deep Art !

Conduct Training Class à You have also suggested and requested me to conduct half day sat class for me to share my knowledge with others so that others won?t keep bugging me.  That is really an interesting suggestion ? indeed I believed it is one of the better methods to solve the current massive request traffic jam situation.  Basically, if my time schedule permits ? I have NO PROBLEM with it.  But just one thing à if you people wants me to do that ? you will have to source for the venue for it.  Get it liaise up and just let me know the place & time ? and I should be able to share some of my experience and insight about this stock market game !

Forumer 23 à Hahalol  ( Posted 9 Feb 07, 1706 hrs )

IPC à this counter used to be very speculative but seems no more now.  As time goes by, things change.  As I said earlier, we have to be very flexible in this game.  If it changes, we change also, we play according to its rule and timing.  If it is good to hold long term, we will hold long term but if it best for speculative play, then we will do speculative trades.  Bottom line to get the best out of it !  For the last 9 mths or so ( Jun 06 to Mar 07 ), it has been going on a sideway trend, it fluctuates between $0.155 to $0.18.  As such, you can apply the Fluctuation Play Concept ?. At such a price range, you could have easily made a 16% profit about Ave every 2.5 mths timeframe ( Ave every 10 weeks per up cycle trade ).  That is about 7% gain per mth ? not bad either !  But currently, due to the sharp correction, DO NOT go in yet ? stay sideline, it is expected to go down further and last for at least another 2 ? 3 mths time ( From late Feb 07 to late May 07 ).  Wait till the dust settle,  then we may enter again, by then the opportunity and profits will be HUGE, patience pays off handsomely, worth the waiting !

CSC à This counter is actually quite stabilized already and going to up swing anytime as of end Feb 07.  But due to the recent sudden and sharp correction, it is currently having a tail spin ? dropping and sliding further down.  All in all, starting as early as 9 Jan 07 dropping from a high of $0.27 to a low of $0.175 on 5 Mar 07 ( Dropped 35% in just 2 mths, Ave dropped 18% every mth ).  To date you have already loss 35% and it is expected to drop further from here ? It would be quite subjective whether to cut loss or not ( The % dropped is quite a lot and also a bit late now ).  It will all depends on a lot of factors like knowledge, experience, guts, your math calculation, emotions, personal trading style and preference, holding power and risk appetite etc etc ? ! There are just too many resons for it ?. But if you know that it is going to continue to slide further to say below $0.10 in the next 2 mths or so under a worst case scenario ?. The question is ? are you able to take it ? ???  and is it necessary to go through all this turmoil and mental torture ???  If  I were you,  I would do my math again to confirm and probably still cut loss ? in view that after doing my math and foreseeing the continuous down trend outcome.  But again, when I can do it ? that doesn?t mean you can do it also ? its really subjective from person to person ?.  I have share with you my thinking and logic, you make your call from there ! 

Forumer 24 à Tecky25  ( Posted 10 Feb 07, 0024 hrs )

We have ask for buying tips à Currently, the market is still in continuous down slide ? and is expected to go down further, as such, it is NOT the right time for me to recommend buy further !  I expect the market correction to last for at least 1.5 mths to 3 mths time frame till about Early Apr 07 or End May 07.  Just be patience ? and wait for the market to stabilized and strengthen itself !  ( Note : Infact, if you had read all my reviews carefully ?. from my review advice and outcome ? you can already find a lot of tips there which are from the review source of other forumer?s request à do watch out more for my review advice and outcome the next time : ).

Forumer 25 à ED88ks  ( Posted 11 Feb 07, 2215 hrs + 12Feb 07, 1023 hrs  )

Thank You for your many compliments and praises even at the beginning of this thread.  Really appreciate and enjoy your great support !

Forumer 26 à Maxtwl  ( Posted 13 Feb 07, 1304 hrs )

Fabchem still can buy ? à I have already advised you on Fabchem Cut Loss posted on 3 Mar 07, 0215 Hrs and detail example of Cut Loss Breakdown Mechanism posted on 6 Mar 07, 0114 Hrs.  We have to be flexible in our trading and DO NOT fight with the Market Great Forces !  Wait till it drop enough and stabilized off ? then you can always come back again for a better and bigger catch !  Don?t worry too much ? the right move with flexibility and patience pays off greatly in the future to come ? ! Good Luck !

Forumer 27 à Jackjames  ( Posted 13 Feb 07, 2021 hrs )

You have enquiry on Stock LUZHOU à This counter has healthy trading vol and value.  Ave for the last 3 mths, Ave daily Vol = 4160 lots per day and Ave daily Value = S$3,057, 453 per day.  It has dropped from a high of $0.84 on 5 Feb 07 to a recent low of $0.615 yesterday on 5 Mar 07 ( Dropped 27% in just 1 mth ).  It is actually quite low already now but under such current scenario sharp and continuous sliding ? nothing is predictable and nobody can guarantee that it would not go down all the way to $0.25 under the worst case scenario ? if that happens in the next 2 mths till the end of the down slid ? the question is ? can you accept it ??? If not, do you have the holding power ?  Even if you have holding power ? , why want to go through all this rough patches and suffering ? ??  I know you may be quite reluctant or against Cutting Loss Theory.  I have share with you this much, you think through and made the final decision from there yourself ! Good Luck !

Forumer 28 à

Choohian,  ( Posted 13 Feb 07, 2057 hrs )

Hughsh2004,  ( Posted 13 Feb 07, 2103 Hrs )

I tan888,  ( Posted 14 Feb 07, 1732 Hrs )

All 3 forumers above ?. Thank You for your compliments, support and wonderful feedback !

Forumer 29 à Soonchew  ( Posted 14 Feb 07, 1733 hrs )

For Fabchem advise à see my Cut Loss reply posted on 3 Mar 07, 0215 Hrs and detail example of Cut Loss Breakdown Mechanism posted on 6 Mar 07, 0100 Hrs.  I know you maybe holding quite a large position.  Note that my advice is just my own personal view and opinion; I may be wrong or right  ? pls make your final assessment and decision from there yourself !

Stock Aztech à You bought at $0.415, currently ( 6 Mar 07) at $0.365.  You loss 12% only ? not much !  This can easily be recovered back if you Cut Loss now and buy back later at even a much lower price than now.  ( Note : MACD is going to break through the zero line soon, indicating that it is going to continue to slide further ? do watch out and continue monitor for this DANGER SIGN ).

Stock Penguin Boat à You bought at $0.185, currently ( 6 Mar 07) at $0.175.  This one even better in such a way that you did NOT loss much ? at only 5% loss.  This is easily handled by Cutting Loss immediately.  ( Note : MACD already started to break through zero line, indicating that it is going to massive continue to slide heavily ? do watch out and be prepared for this DANGER WARNING SIGN ).

Forumer 30 à I tan888  ( Posted 14 Feb 07, 1749 hrs )

Stock Nera Telecom à  You asked me on 14 Feb 07 saying it only surge up 1 cent from $0.38 to $0.39 ( Up 3% only ) from its previous day despite of the fact that it has a 3 cent dividend pay out announcement !  Well, I guess sometimes people are a bit slow and at different timeframe when they hear about the announcement news to react ?, it did delayed a few days till 21 Feb 07 before it really surge up.  That is about 6 market days delayed ( or about 1week delayed ).  After that ? it did eventually went up for another week to a high of $0.415 on 26 Feb 07 ( Surge about 9%, all in all total of 2 weeks from announcement date to last day of surge ).  Hence if you position yourself within 2 -3 weeks timeframe after the dividend payout announcement ? you should then see the full surge impact coming in later !

My Opinion on Stock Dividend Payout ? à  For me, I never go for dividend payout because my holding timeframe are usually very short ( from days to weeks to mths )( Note : I used to hold for many years long term timeframe but NOT now anymore ).  I just move from stocks to stocks, opportunity to opportunity ? wherever there are money to be made ? I will be there !  To me, when we go into the Stock Market , we go for the kill ? we want to use the minimum fire power to get the maximum return result in the shortest possible timeframe ? this way is proven to be safer and much much higher returns as compared to the long term holding timeframe.  ( Note : If you know how to do it, the capital gain returns can be many many times more as compared to just waiting for dividend payout, you have to do your math and trades more to find out this secret ).  There is a deep and long concept which I won?t cover here.  However, there are many different types of people with much different views, concepts, thinkings + many other factors to dictates and justify a person action.  For me, it is very simple, if you think your method or stagedy is the best ? and NOT willing to hear other people out ? Then I would say ?, do as what you deem fit and do according to what you think is correct for you. After all, if people are really resistant and stubborn and refused to hear out other people opinion, there is no point argues over with them ?. all they lack is the WISDOM and understanding  !  Simple as that ( Note : I am NOT referring to you, it is just my feeling about some particular special others that all ?! )

Regards

Simon Loh

( Tue )( 6 Mar 07 )( 0005 hrs )

____________  END  ____________

Posting by Simon Loh dated ( 6 Mar 07 )( 0100 Hrs ) :

Correction Market à Waves 2 Begins on 5 Mar 07

Dear Readers,

As predicted of more waves coming, Correction Wave 2 has just began today ( Mon )( 5 Mar 07).  The drop magnitude was 96 pts at 3.1% for STI.  Over other Asia region has also been badly battered as follows :

All these will affect in further down slid of the stock market in the future to come !  To date, our STI has dropped from a recent high of 3308 Pts on 26 Feb 07 to a current of 2982 Pts on 5 Mar 07 ( Dropped about 10% in just 5 market days à typically everyday drops about 2% on ave ).  If the market continues to be on the soft ground, soon ? we will reach a bear market.  Hence, it is advise to be more cautioned and on the safe side ! 

I could not further emphasize to you how important it is to practice the habit of cutting loss.

When you go to bookshop, out of 10 investment books that you see, I would say 7 ? 9 of them will advocate you to cut loss.  In fact, it is by far one of the most important theory and also the most difficult to do.  Even experience traders or investors have difficulties executing it. 

Below is a Case Study of Cutting Loss, we have taken Fabchem as an example and below are the Assumption made :

Bought Assumption Data :

Stock Bought Example : Fabchem.

Bought date : Early Feb 07.

Bought Price : S$0.56

Bought Qty :  30 Lots

Bought Amt :   S$16,800.

Cut Loss Assumption Data  :

Cut Loss Date ( Today ) :  5 Mar 07 ( Mon )

Cut Loss Price :  S$0.49

Cut Loss Qty :  30 Lots

% Loss after Cut Loss :  13%

Amount took back after Cut Loss : S$14,700

Scenario Study :

Assume you cut loss today at $0.49, and later it dropped further to $0.45.  With the cut loss amt of $14,700 left, you could buy back another 33 lots at $0.45.  Assume when the market recovered in future and the price went back to $0.56 original bought level.  You would have sold your 33 lots at $0.56 for $18,293. 

As compared to without cutting loss, you would still be at $16,800 when the market recovered.  What you have just did on your cutting loss has actually gain you an extra profit of $1,493 or 9 % gain by just grabbing it back at a lower price of $0.45. 

Hence, from here, if you know that the market is going to drop much further than that, your gain profit and % would even be more !  However, I have only assumed it recovered back to original $0.56 level.  What if it went even higher than that ? your gain amount and % would even be much greater !

I have done a calculation on that and have attached per below for you to see per below :

Reading Instruction :

The ( Red color ) that you see on the table is your ( Cut Loss price and % loss ).

The ( Pink Color ) is the ( New buy back price and the new profit % gain ).

Summary of Cutting Loss :

From here, you can see that by cutting loss ? it may NOT necessary be a lose deal at all if you know that the market is going to continue to slid further.  Hope this can help you understand a little bit on the important and theory of cutting loss and the detail breakdown of its internal mechanism operation !