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seed_destiny
Member |
03-Mar-2007 13:45
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me vest at $0.66 But I think global situation, not good. DJIA cut cross 120MA, STI cut cross 50MA. further more it is still in major down trend. better wait and see. One problem with me, is I have all the advance Tool, Omega prosuite, metastock, Price downloader, but no discipline to follow TA hor. Those who vest.. all the best. |
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francisd
Veteran |
03-Mar-2007 12:47
Yells: "BUY LOW SELL HIGH" |
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I am also vested in this counter @ .59 and .62 cents. Looking at the reports published by DMG and CLSA. it gives me heart to hold on to this counter, wheather they get the ethonal licience or not. The price target is over 1 dollar. Great buy or to average at this price. Please look at SGX research for the detailed report. | |||
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jackjames
Elite |
03-Mar-2007 08:10
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the next immediate support point is 0.46... 21% rooms to drop... ( which is possible, correction just started, not even half way if we compare the correction time zone to last year) | |||
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jackjames
Elite |
03-Mar-2007 08:06
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you are very right, the strong support point at 0.575 cannot be broken, else, it is draining down fast... again, when it will rise? well, at least when the global market sell down is clear off, then, it will easily, 10%, 20% up no problem.. just look at the june correction, and you can see the price fly back so fast and so fierce, exact scenario now.. but, looking at the good results is not enough, Luzhou is good example now, why the year profit increased 70% !! but the price drop to 0.675? shit man.. China Sun is worth to go in definitely ( but enter with a good price, wait until the market sell down is over, when it is over? you got to monitor closely then.. for me, 3 days continuous strong rebound, I will consider to go in ) |
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lucky168
Veteran |
03-Mar-2007 00:46
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worth a bet at this price level 58c - triple bottom! |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
03-Mar-2007 00:10
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China against too many corn-based ethanol projects. China Sun may not get the ethanol licence. So the eps at current price is 30.9 fen? |
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brizy88
Member |
25-Feb-2007 12:50
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Apparently there is this SJ member guy Simon Loh has posted on this counter. Only happen to come across his postings by chance while searching through forum. Quite an interesting fella spending an awful lot of his own time answering requests from virtually anyone in the forum. Seems to have a good followings from fellow forumers. Good on him. I am reproducing below his response to a request on ChinaSun for info to all. His other review-and-request postings make some interesting read. Cheers .... Forumer 11 ( ZhouYu ) ( Posted 4 What?s your view on
( A ) Fundamental : 1. China Sun Principal Activities à company engaged in the processing of corn kernels and the production of modified starch and other corn-based products in various locations in the PRC, namely, Shenyany, Tongliao, The corn starch produced is sold for use in various applications, including food processing such as refining sugars and corn sweeteners, making processed meat such as sausages and producing monosodium glutamate, manufacturing of pharmaceutical products such as dextrose, vitamins and antibiotics and other industrial applications such as the production of papers, textiles, building materials and personal care products etc.
2. 2004 Dec à Profit Approx RMB 172 Millions ( Approx S$34 Millions ) 2005 Dec à Profit Approx RMB 242 Millions ( Approx S$48 Millions ) Increased of Profit RMB 70 Millions ( S$14 Millions or 41% ) as compared to previous yr à Fundamentally Good & Healthy Sign !
( B ) Technical : 1. 2. 3.
( C ) Observation & Comments :
However, it?s share price still keep on dropping and dropping from 3 Aug 06 ( 6 mths ago ) till now. It dropped from a high of S$0.89 on 3 Aug 06 to a low of S$0.625 on 29 Jan 07 ( Dropped 30% in 6 mths, ie every mth = 5% lost ). As you can see, in Stock & Share, it can be a complicated thing. If you were to just analyze the fundamentals alone, it is still not enough ! It has to combine with Technical plus many other factors involved to make it a ?Profitable Deal? ! This is just 1 example here, in the real world, there are still ?many many? of such cases happening à so called ?UNCOLELATED? with fundamental. That?s why I said your ?Physical Experience? in Stock Market Trading is Important ! You have to ?GET IN? the real world to learn and experience before you can become a good trader or investor ! Whatever the reasons for its drop is NOT important ! Bottom line, if the stock keep dropping ? you can?t make money !
You said you are vested in this counter, but what price, date & amount ? ( You did NOT specify with much information, too late now ! ). If you want me to review, try to give COMPLETE information. It really DIFFICULT for me to access and advise you from here, the situation can be very different from case to case !
Currently, this stock is still in it?s down trend mode and still dropping, I would advise you NOT to go in now & DON?T accumulate more. Wait till it stabilized, then consider again. AVOID GOING IN FOR NOW ! ( Note : this counter was once used to be a high gain stock but NOT at the moment ). |
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lpkoh5
Senior |
24-Feb-2007 20:52
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It's a matter of time that this stock will go up but i knw your question.............WHEN! ;p | |||
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brizy88
Member |
24-Feb-2007 08:04
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Yeah - same observation too about Luzhou. Both are corn sweetner and starch related. Hwr CEssence in potato starch has just lifted off. Anyone aware of any biz fundamentals that are holding back these 2 counters... pls throw some light. Cheers ... |
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lucky168
Veteran |
23-Feb-2007 23:53
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chinasun in few months downtrend since Aug-06. why still so stubborn? if the stuck funds in this stock had been used to invest in other stocks, could have salvaged the opportunity cost another of this kind is Luzhou |
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shplayer
Elite |
23-Feb-2007 23:44
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brizy88, As I said, I am not familar with the business of corn starch and modified starch, ethanol, corn sweetners etc. However I managed to extract CS 3Q 06 results and some of their announcements. Q3 06 bottomline was affected by the new FRS 32 ruling, by restating their convertible bonds as liability to the tune of approx 40.24 mil Rmb. However, this should be a one off hit. 9 mths 06 eps 22.67 rmb cts, NAV 135.75 rmb cts. My forecast for FY 06 is eps 31 to 32.5 rmb cts , NAV 144 to 145 rmb cts. Taking the higher end, and based on today's closing of 61.5 sgd cts (rmb:sgd xchange 1 rmb : 0.19 sgd) eps 32,5 rmb cts = 6.17 sgd cts, P/E = 10X NAV 145rmb cts = 27.55 sgd cts. Price/Book = 2.23X FY 05 div was 1 sgd cts => historical yield 1.62 %. however, I would expect FY 06 div will be 2.0 - 3.0 sgd cts. Assume 2.5 sgd cts div... yield = 4.06%. Company is on an aggressive expansion plan....ethanol plant completed Nov 06 and in Jan 2007, it announced plans to build a 120,000 MT corn sweetener plant (whatever that is).. If all goes well, the next couple of years should continue to see double digit revenue growth and hopefully similiar profit growth. Company's cash position, P&L and balance sheet are healthy. Reported existing capacity utilisation is healthy. Some concerns:
Looking at the TA charts, this counter has been on a general downtrend since Aug 2006. Whilst the FA looks reasonable to good, is the market telling us otherwise through TA? Like you, I can't seem to get my fingers on it. |
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shplayer
Elite |
23-Feb-2007 10:23
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brizy88, I am not familiar with this counter nor the business and industry its in. Will need time to research it and will revert in due course. I skimmed through the posts by members in this thread......the thing that strikes me to be of concern is the restriction by the Chinese Govt to build ethanol plants using corn? If this is the core business of CS, then I will proceed cautiously. I will not give too much weight to the dismissal by its CO, Herman Wang, that this ruling will not adversely CS.....of course he has to say this.....what else can he say? As you yourself said...' I just can't get my finger on this counter comfortably'. My investment philosophy is, if you are not comfortable, then stay out of it.....STI offers you about 1400 counters to choose from.....surely, there will be some that you will be comfortable with. |
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brizy88
Member |
23-Feb-2007 06:33
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thanks singaporegal, as usual your input is very helpful to ensure some balance in my outlook. Over the past 1 year trend, are you seeing it still continuing the down trend or benign/sideways from here? sorry for probing you again 'cos somehow i just can't get my finger on this counter comfortably. Hello shplayer, are you able to comment? Thank you again everyone and for the corn postings. |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
23-Feb-2007 01:58
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Corn rose to a 10-year high in Chicago and soybeans extended this year's rally to 15% as wet weather threatens to prevent U.S. farmers from planting enough to meet surging demand for crop-based fuels.
Above-normal rains are forecast in March and April from St. Louis to Columbus, Ohio, when most Midwest fields are planted, said Joe Widenor, a meteorologist at CropCast Services Inc. in Rockville, Maryland. Wet fields during planting can reduce the number of viable plants. Corn has jumped 90% in the past year and soybeans are the highest since June 2004. "Production risks are growing and prices will rise," said Terry Jones, vice president for Russell Consulting Group in Williamsburg, Iowa, who farms 5,000 acres of corn and soybeans. "The market has finally concerned itself that these are unusual demand circumstances that will require good growing weather." Corn futures for May delivery rose 1.5% to US$4.455 a bushel at 11:18 a.m. on the Chicago Board of Trade, after reaching US$4.47, the highest for a most-active contract since June 1996. Prices have surged as record ethanol production and rising demand for livestock feed reduced world inventories for a sixth time in seven years. Soybean futures for May delivery rose 0.8%, to US$8.045 a bushel in Chicago, after earlier reaching US$8.0775. Prices have jumped 47% in the past five months on speculation that increased returns from growing corn will cut U.S. plantings of soybeans. U.S. farmers, the world's biggest producers and exporters of both crops, probably will plant 90.14 million acres of corn this spring, up 15% from 78.33 million last year, to profit from a rally in prices, Cedar Falls, Iowa-based Professional Farmers of America said in a newsletter Feb. 2 after surveying farmer clients. Some 66.9 million acres of soybeans will be planted, down 11% from 75.52 million last year, the group said. The U.S. Department of Agriculture said last week that corn seeding will rise 8.9% to 86 million acres this year, based on estimates from last month. The department will release an updated forecast on March 1 at the annual agricultural outlook forum in Washington. "Prices will go high enough to attract more farmers to shift to corn,'' said Jones, who forecasts planting of 86 million acres because of the increased costs of producing, harvesting and storing corn relative to soybeans. "The next 1 million acres will cost more and yield less,'' because fields are less productive when planted in successive years, he said. Prices have risen almost 4% in the past week on speculation a La Nina weather pattern will cause hot, dry conditions from June to August and crop damage in the U.S., the largest exporter of corn. A La Nina system will begin in April and continue through the rest of the year, affecting the central U.S., World Weather Inc., a private forecaster in Kansas City, Kansas, said on Feb. 16, citing a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast. NOAA's model shifted last week, showing the conditions may damage crops, World Weather said. Most Midwest soil temperatures at 8 inches are below freezing according to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Web site. Soil moisture will be as much as 40 millimeters above normal from Missouri to New York at the end of March, the Climate Prediction Center said Feb. 19. Warm, dry weather has helped farmers sow the three largest plant populations in record time during the past three years, data from the USDA show. Early planting in warm, dry soils increases yield potential. ``Soil temperatures are cold and with wet soils, you will be slower to warm up and dry out for planting,'' said Dale Durchholz, a market analyst for AgriVisor Services Inc. in Bloomington, Illinois. ``The anxiety level about planting the crop is rising.'' |
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seed_destiny
Member |
23-Feb-2007 00:09
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lucky168
Veteran |
22-Feb-2007 21:48
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58-62 is a good entry point for me! | |||
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singaporegal
Supreme |
22-Feb-2007 21:27
Yells: "Female TA nut" |
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Hi brizy88, Since I last posted, this counter has been on a downtrend. I don't really see any sign of change anytime soon. |
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brizy88
Member |
22-Feb-2007 19:00
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singaporegal, this counter is a little laggard. pls let me know what is your TA view and which the indicators are relevant here? short-term wise there seem some signals of reversal on 21/2 which is confirmed today, but i am still still not quite sure. shplayer, this is a very wierd counter 'cos it has a pretty good 3Q with decent topline and bottomline growth but maybe I am missing on something here. The standout item in 3Q is the RMB43m expense charge as reqd by FRS32 for their option in their issue of convertible bond. Even so the share price has dropped about S$0.10cts between Sep and Dec - so I expect this charge on the option value for full year to be lower at around RMB25m. Can you pls take a look and let me know what you think? Thanks everyone .... |
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singaporegal
Supreme |
10-Jan-2007 22:08
Yells: "Female TA nut" |
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Looks to be still on downtrend | |||
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EastonBay
Master |
10-Jan-2007 13:05
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INTERVIEW - Singapore-listed China Sun still hoping for fuel ethanol licence ---- by Lynette Khoo ---- SINGAPORE (XFN-ASIA) - China Sun Bio-chem Technology Group Co Ltd, a producer of modified starch, says it remains hopeful that it will secure a licence to make ethanol for fuel in China despite recent moves by the government there to restrict the licensing of new ethanol projects. The Chinese government recently announced a policy to halt new ethanol projects involving corn as it seeks to regulate more closely the production of the fuel because of concern about rising grain prices and excessive use of agricultural products for purposes other than food. China Sun chief financial officer Herman Wong said this policy did not affect his company much. "The granting of the license will slow, but I don't think it's negative to our application," Wong told XFN-Asia in a recent interview. But the company cannot be certain of getting a fuel ethanol license in China, so it is studying the possibility of entering ethanol markets in other countries, China Sun chairman Sun Guiji said. At present, China Sun is producing non-fuel ethanol at its 100,000-ton, 270 mln-yuan ethanol plant. This is expected to contribute to the group's earnings in the second quarter of this year, Sun said. "There are 100 downstream products for corn," Sun said. "Ethanol is one of them, so even without the fuel ethanol license, China Sun still has much room for growth." The group is keen to expand its capacity to make starch and to further process modified starch to meet demand in China. China Sun's capacity expansion in recent years has fueled growth in its earnings. In the first nine months of last year, China Sun's sales grew by 58 pct year-on-year to 989.20 mln yuan, surpassing the 882.12 mln yuan-worth of sales it made in the whole of 2005. However, its net profit in the first nine months slipped to 176.69 mln yuan from 180.23 mln yuan, largely because of derivatives losses the company suffered in the third quarter. Sun said: "Two-thousand-and-six was better than a year ago because our capacity enjoyed increased utilization and international corn prices have been rising, which is good news for us." He said that increasing downstream use of corn in the US was driving up corn prices there, which in turn was increasing the prices of China Sun's corn products. Sun estimates that demand in the modified starch industry in China has been growing at 20 pct a year for the past five years. "We are very optimistic about our business prospects because, as China's economic growth accelerates, it will further drive demand for our products," Sun said. Sun said he believed the government there would eventually lift restrictions on the production of modified starch and ethanol, which were intended to keep corn prices down, because of the shortage of these products. About one-third of starch produced in China is used to make modified starch and ethanol, he estimates. "China needs more than 10 mln tons of starch a year, but it still depends on imports to fulfill some 15 pct of its requirements, because its development of starch product types is still not as rapid as that overseas. Hence, our growth area is in replacing imports," Sun said. |
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