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From SGX - Notice of Interest/Interest change

Octavia
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02-May-2013 09:50

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UOB Kay Hian maintains Buy but lowers TP to $1.03. House note that in the property valuation report released in Guoco Group’s offer document on Monday, the fair value of GLL’s hotel properties in the UK and development property in Molokai is $1.7b and $253m respectively. This is S$300m (13%) lower than house SOTP valuation. The revised SOTP valuation based on the fair value of GLL’s hotel properties and development properties as per valuation report is $1.47/share. House note however that in the long run, believe Guocoleisure remains an attractive undervalued asset play with stable earnings, as the fundamentals of the company are still intact. Fair value of the assets is still at a premium of $0.37/share ($560m) to the assets held at cost on balance sheet. As per its previous closing price of $0.88, GLL is trading at a 17% discount to its NAV ($1.05/share), and a 40% discount to its RNAV of $1.47/share based on the fair value of assets on the latest valuation report. Technically, the stock has retraced from S$0.98 and a break below $0.85 is likely to see more selling pressure towards $0.79. The potential resistance could be seen at $0.98/1.05.

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wanglausern
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02-May-2013 03:41

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Most unlikely lah. Frying over liao.

clickshop1628 ( Date: 01-May-2013 17:02) Posted:

So current price is way below valuation price of $1.47.

UOBKayhian not happy? No wonder BBs played it down on Monday to collect cheap cheap. Luckily got other brokers recommending this stock. Hopefully some big foreign broker come and mob up the shares since it is grossly undervalued and Mr Kwek may make a bid for it like in 2005.

radiantforce ( Date: 30-Apr-2013 11:34) Posted:

here's the report.

http://www.irasia.com/listco/hk/guoco/circulars/c108017-e_compositedocument%28englishversion%29.pdf

scary thick.

summary (UOB):

The valuation report for Guoco Group has been released yesterday.

We have extracted the valuation reports for the assets of GuocoLeisure,

Based on the valuation report, the fair value of Guocoleisure’s UK hotel assets and Molakai development properties as at 31 Jan 2013 is S$1.9b, which is S$300m (13%) below our SOTP valuation.

We are currently reviewing our recommendation and target price.

	As per valuation report
	GBP$m	US$m	S$m	S$ per share	Comments
Hotel	890	1,380	1,701	1.28	As per valuation report
Development property		202	253	0.19	As per valuation report

Oil & gas royalty		367.74	459.67	0.35	UOB’s DCF valuation
Casino		54.90	68.63	0.05	as per B/S on 30 June 2012
Trade and receivables		78.60	98.25	0.07	as per B/S on 30 June 2012
Cash		19.50	24.38	0.02	as per B/S on 30 June 2012
Less liabilities		(522.30)	(652.88)	(0.49)	as per B/S on 30 June 2012
SOTP valuation		1,581	1,951	1.47

Thanks

Regards

Loke Chunying
UOB Kay Hian Research

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clickshop1628
Veteran

01-May-2013 17:02

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radiantforce ( Date: 30-Apr-2013 11:34) Posted:

	As per valuation report
	GBP$m	US$m	S$m	S$ per share	Comments
Hotel	890	1,380	1,701	1.28	As per valuation report
Development property		202	253	0.19	As per valuation report

Oil & gas royalty		367.74	459.67	0.35	UOB’s DCF valuation
Casino		54.90	68.63	0.05	as per B/S on 30 June 2012
Trade and receivables		78.60	98.25	0.07	as per B/S on 30 June 2012
Cash		19.50	24.38	0.02	as per B/S on 30 June 2012
Less liabilities		(522.30)	(652.88)	(0.49)	as per B/S on 30 June 2012
SOTP valuation		1,581	1,951	1.47

Thanks

Regards

Loke Chunying
UOB Kay Hian Research

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radiantforce
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30-Apr-2013 11:34

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	As per valuation report
	GBP$m	US$m	S$m	S$ per share	Comments
Hotel	890	1,380	1,701	1.28	As per valuation report
Development property		202	253	0.19	As per valuation report

Oil & gas royalty		367.74	459.67	0.35	UOB’s DCF valuation
Casino		54.90	68.63	0.05	as per B/S on 30 June 2012
Trade and receivables		78.60	98.25	0.07	as per B/S on 30 June 2012
Cash		19.50	24.38	0.02	as per B/S on 30 June 2012
Less liabilities		(522.30)	(652.88)	(0.49)	as per B/S on 30 June 2012
SOTP valuation		1,581	1,951	1.47

Thanks

Regards

Loke Chunying
UOB Kay Hian Research

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sunview
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30-Apr-2013 11:04

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My broker sent me this:

Based on the valuation report released yesterday , the fair value of Guocoleisure’s UK hotel assets and Molakai development properties as at 31 Jan 2013 is S$1.9b, which is S$300m (13%) below our SOTP valuation.

We are currently reviewing our recommendation and target price.

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clickshop1628
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30-Apr-2013 09:28

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Deep value yet whack down? Anyone got news of the report? Where to get?

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Singer88
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29-Apr-2013 11:13

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Report on 24th April 2013 and should expect some movement once the report is out.......

The HK$100/share offer is 13.6% higher than the previous offer of HK$88/share and a 2.6% premium to the previous closing of Guoco Group. It is to encourage previous disinterested shareholders to accept the privatization offer.

As at FY12, the BV/share for Guoco Group is HK$134.35/share.

In our view,
The increase in offer by Guoline indicates that they see deep value in Guoco Group, which may be visible in the pending valuation report to be released by 30 April.
Since Guocoleisure is a subsidiary of Guoco Group, we believe this is positive news for the stock as it does have a portfolio of undervalued assets (London hotels and Oil and gas royalty) held at cost on balance sheet.

We currently have a buy recommendation on Guocoleisure, with a TP of $1.19

Loke Chunying
UOB Kay Hian Research

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Singer88
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26-Apr-2013 16:26

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GuocoLeisure just achieved a new four-year high again recently. It has been in an uptrend for around three months since December 2012. Looking at the weekly chart, we find that after the breakout of recent high, it has entered into a no-resistance zone. The next significant resistance is at $1.12.

It may go up higher after the recent consolidation. Because it is likely to have a consolidation after the thrust on 23 April, one may consider buying on weakness during the current pull-back. It is important to be aware of the release of earnings especially for short-term trading setups. GuocoLeisure is likely to release its earnings report between 6 May to 10 May according to Thomson Reuters news.

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hello123
Senior

25-Apr-2013 21:08

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Yells: " google ' sgx swinger ' - for how stock operators work "

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students entered at 87c one day before breakout to 98c and exited at 96c before the flush down

for more details , see my guocoleisure chart .tq

hello123 ( Date: 14-Apr-2013 16:47) Posted:

student e-entered Guocoleisure at 85.5 post reaction

for more details , see my guocoleisure hart( click here)

SJ-Stomp ( Date: 25-Mar-2013 17:28) Posted:

You are very "chun"

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Octavia
Elite

24-Apr-2013 18:04

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Relax.See tmor can take some decent profit.

92 shld be a strong support.

Kong75 ( Date: 24-Apr-2013 17:57) Posted:

Ya man, a bit heartache.. lesson learnt..mai too greedy n take profit..keke

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Kong75
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24-Apr-2013 17:57

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Ya man, a bit heartache.. lesson learnt..mai too greedy n take profit..keke

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Octavia
Elite

24-Apr-2013 17:22

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Sorry msg meant for bro Kong75.

Octavia ( Date: 24-Apr-2013 17:20) Posted:

You bought at 90.5 yesterday and today it went up to 98,you did not manage to contra off?

What a waste.

clickshop1628 ( Date: 24-Apr-2013 17:17) Posted:

Why kena sold down instead? Tomorrow should start to cheong till 30 Apr....

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Octavia
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24-Apr-2013 17:20

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You bought at 90.5 yesterday and today it went up to 98,you did not manage to contra off?

What a waste.

clickshop1628 ( Date: 24-Apr-2013 17:17) Posted:

Why kena sold down instead? Tomorrow should start to cheong till 30 Apr....

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clickshop1628
Veteran

24-Apr-2013 17:17

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Why kena sold down instead? Tomorrow should start to cheong till 30 Apr....

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Kong75
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24-Apr-2013 16:45

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Swinging to and fro...very headache..

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Octavia
Elite

24-Apr-2013 10:10

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Guocoleisure / Guoco Group: In an announcement by Guoco Group released yesterday night, the grp revised their previous offer: unconditional cash offer of HK$88/share to 1) an unconditional cash offer of HK$88/share if privatization condition is not satisfied or waived, and an additional HK$12 (total cash offer of HK$100) if privatization condition is satisfied or waived 2) new conditional cash offer of HK$100 if privatization condition is satisfied (shareholders can choose either one of the options) The HK$100/share offer is 13.6% higher than the previous offer of HK$88/share and a 2.6% premium to the previous closing of Guoco Group. It is to encourage previous disinterested shareholders to accept the privatization offer. As at FY12, the BV/share for Guoco Group is HK$134.35/share. UOB Kay Hian note that the increase in offer by Guoco indicates that they see deep value in Guoco Group, which may be visible in the pending valuation report to be released by 30 April. Since Guocoleisure is a subsidiary of Guoco Group, believe this is positive news for the stock as it does have a portfolio of undervalued assets (London hotels and Oil and gas royalty) held at cost on balance sheet. House currently have a buy recommendation on Guocoleisure, with a TP of $1.19

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chongpin
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24-Apr-2013 08:53

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-23/guoco-group-says-quek-increases-buyout-offer-to-1-2-billion.html

Guoco Group Says Quek Increases Buyout Offer to $1.2 Billion

By Joshua Fellman - Apr 24, 2013 12:18 AM GMT+0800

A group led by Malaysian billionaire Quek Leng Chan increased its offer to take Guoco Group Ltd. (53) private to HK$9.37 billion ($1.2 billion) after some investors said the initial HK$8.25 billion bid was too low.

In addition to the original per-share payment of HK$88 the buyers will pay HK$12 a share when the buyout provision of the deal is either satisfied or waived, the company said in aHong Kong stock-exchange filing yesterday. The buyout group won’t further increase the offer, Guoco said.

The revised offer of HK$100 per share is 2.6 percent more than the closing price of HK$97.45 on April 22. The stock was suspended yesterday pending the increased offer and will resume trading in Hong Kong today. The stock has surged 38 percent since the day before Quek group first made its offer on Dec. 12.

The original HK$88 offer was “unfair” and “absurd,” given that Guoco’s balance sheet alone could support a higher price, without Quek contributing, Sandy Mehta, Hong Kong-based chief executive officer of Value Investment Principals Ltd., said on Dec. 13. Mehta’s fund then owned Guoco shares.

The company has cash and short term funds of HK$11.6 billion on Dec. 31, rising from HK$8.8 billion on June 30, according to the company’s interim report for the six months through December.

The proposal will give Guoco Chairman Quek more control of the company’s 14 percent stake in Bank of East Asia Ltd., Hong Kong’s biggest family-run bank. Quek is making the bid together with related parties, including a unit of Hong Leong Co., in which he has a 49 percent stake.

Guoco, based in Hong Kong, gained 1 percent on April 22, the last date of trading before the suspension.

To contact the reporter on this story: Joshua Fellman in New York atjfellman@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Andreea Papuc at apapuc1@bloomberg.net

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Octavia
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23-Apr-2013 23:04

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Read from the GGL website the Offeror intends to offer to acquire the Offer Shares, subject to the Privatisation Condition being satisfied or waived, at the Enhanced Offer Price of HK$100.00 per Share. Trading to resume tmor.

That means the asset report could have valued Guocoleisure higher as the house analysts have predicted.

Good news to all those vested.

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clickshop1628
Veteran

23-Apr-2013 18:53

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WOW, broke out of 92 resistance with volume. Should be good news from Mr Quek and SCB. May be heading towards $1.25 (target by RHB-OSK). Huat ah.........

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Octavia
Elite

23-Apr-2013 17:56

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Thanks, my good friend.

Win some here to cover other counter loss...lol

halleluyah ( Date: 23-Apr-2013 17:31) Posted:

Bro Octavia, arhhhhh......congrats!!! well done.

Octavia ( Date: 23-Apr-2013 16:15) Posted:

Huat Arhhhhh!!!

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