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CoscoCorp
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elfinchilde
Elite |
07-Aug-2008 15:27
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strictly speaking: insider trading is if you buy/sell a counter when you are privy to price-sensitive news that the market does not know yet. such as the winning of a big contract, or the change of management, as per cosco's case. but it is very, very difficult to prove. since a lot of times, it may just be market rumors--how to find the source when practically everyone knows it--or it may be BB changing portfolio legitimately, or it may be experienced techies: eg, personally i'd have called a trading sell on cosco @ 2.97 on aug 4 based on candlesticks: vol up, px closed down, not a good sign at all. classic sell signal. why the tanking happens worse is because once the news is out, you have genuine distribution, plus shorting going on by the opportunists. You can count the no: of shortists by the short covering at the day's end. esp the closing bell's lots. so really, mostly, a person is caught for insider trading only if he's idiotic enough to be the ONLY one buying/selling on privileged news, AND someone reports him. Which is not how BBs operate. Neither is it how SGX acts. haha. i just created a thread, go see it. hopefully it may help the n00bs some. 
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Ryanwong
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07-Aug-2008 15:08
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Actually I dunno how they define it also. Sometimes you can see some selling before the news and we always say these were the TA people and maybe some insider news etc. But for COSCO the trading volume on 5th Aug was very high. Highest since 10th April (that one we know is now insider trading as it was after the news of the cancellation) Any old birds can enlighten what is and what is not insider trading?
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elfinchilde
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07-Aug-2008 15:07
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zionbee, there was an earlier discussion on what constitutes insider trading in this thread. Essentially, ALL BBs get news faster than retailers. Insider trading is difficult to prove, since what is insider trading is "news that is not known to the general public." Who's to say that the BBs are not part of the general public? ryanwong, perhaps it's a different track we're talking about. Not insider news. For those of you with brokers, esp if you don't know how to read BUSD: ask your broker who the counterparty is. There are certain names and numbers to avoid, especially if you're on their opposing side. quite simply, they have too much fire power. |
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zionbee
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07-Aug-2008 15:00
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Do you consider this is as insider trading if the institutional player or the BB sell when they get the news before the retailiers? As the annoucement on SGX website is only later trading hours. | ||||
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cyjjerry85
Elite |
07-Aug-2008 14:50
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From CIMB:Cosco Corp (COS SP, $2.37): Share price dropped 12.2% a 18-month low on news of its president Ji Hai Sheng's shock exit.. This news will affect the stock sentiment in the short-term as it is not expected by the market. Although this may seem like a lost of leadership, we believe it will not affect yard operations as each yard is headed by own executive chairman who manages the overall execution. We have a BUY rating for this counter with target price of $4.39. |
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Ryanwong
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07-Aug-2008 14:48
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I have a good relationship with my broker. He is my wife's cousin. But he does not have insider news. This is insider trading we are talking about. Not every broker has access to that kind of information. I didn't buy this counter recently. I bought it in April. Back then the outlook was different with the BDI still tracking upwards, oil prices looked firm and oil rigs were still in demand. So I am not crying from a recent failed scalp or anything. But I am disappointed with the way COSCO does certain things. Anyway lesson learnt for me with regard to China stocks. It's ok we all learn. I'm very new. Only monitor stocks for 1 year +.
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nickyng
Supreme |
07-Aug-2008 14:27
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wow..this iswhat DMG says: Sudden retirement of Company President Ji Hai Sheng. Cosco Corporation (Cosco) announced the sudden retirement of Ji Hai Sheng, the Vice Chairman, President and Executive Director of Cosco with immediate effect late last evening. Mr Ji has been the President of Cosco since 20 Nov 2000. He was appointed as the Vice Chairman of Cosco effective from 14 Feb 2006 and was very much seen as the face of Cosco. Mr Ji would be succeeded by Mr Jiang Lijun. Background of the successor, Jiang Lijun. Mr Jiang, 53, is a shipping industry veteran who embarked on his Cosco career in 1974 and climbed the ranks to become Chief Executive Officer of Cosco Shipping in 2002. He was a manager of Financial Department of Chinese-Tanzanian Joint Shipping Co., Chung Lin Marine Service Co Ltd, Cosco UK, Hong Kong Yifeng Shipping Co Ltd, deputy general manager of Florens Container Holding Co Ltd, deputy general manager of Cosco Pacific Ltd, manager of Financial Division and deputy manager of Business Division of Cosco Japan, general manager of COSUZ Corporation and deputy general accountant of Cosco Container Lines. We also understand that Mr Jiang is an accountant by training and speaks fluent English. Drastic changes in leadership within the Cosco family. We note that there have been a series of re-designations within the Cosco family in the past recent two months. This may stem from streamlining roles and responsibilities to better manage each subsidiary. Weakening in share price likely. A confluence of concerns over possible cancellation orders and rising steel prices has plagued global shipyards in the past week. Cosco has not been spared. This led to a slump in investors’ confidence over Cosco shares. A new and sudden change in a key management role does not bode well in this weak investor climate, in our view. We believe that the share price is likely to be pressured, at least in the near term. Maintaining our earnings forecast and target price at S$3.82. Given that a transition period is required for the new President to spearhead China’s largest shipyard group, as in the case of any business, it is too quick to ascertain whether there would be any changes made to the operational business model and directives. While we take caution and await the new President’s report card, we maintain our earnings forecast and target price at S$3.82, on the back of a strong orderbook of US$7.4b. |
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cleong
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07-Aug-2008 14:19
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Quoting from Kim Eng • The stock has broken below the key support at $2.75 (previous March low) • MACD has triggered a sell signal. • Momentum indicators RSI, Stochastic and ADX are all exhibiting weakness hovering at the lower ranges. • Next target at $2.27 may be tested in near term. • Last night, the company made a shock announcement on the `resignation’ of vice-chairman and president Ji Hai Sheng. This follows the recent departure of chairman Wei Jia Fu and FC Teo Chuan Teck. • Recommend trading sell. Luckily took the advice to observe for a while. |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
07-Aug-2008 14:15
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haha. wbwee88, do your own homework. ppl love to rely on tips; but that doesn't make one a good trader/investor in the long run. it only creates a lazy mindset. besides, 'cheap' can be defined in many ways. a penny counter is cheap. but btwn a penny and a solidly backed blue chip, the blue is likely to go up faster. |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
07-Aug-2008 14:00
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to clarify some stuff for newbies/people in this counter (note i'm not vested): yes, institutional players and brokers normally get wind of news before the retailers. which is why you must have a very good relationship with your broker, so that you get the news as early as possible. esp if you can't read charts. if you want to buy this counter: question yourself why first. what signs show buy? is it worth a hold, or is it just a scalp counter/for you? pointless getting worked up. this is the market. As for SGX, personally, i think they are paper tigers. They can't do anything except send queries to the company, which often results in the usual "we know of no material reason for the sudden increase/decrease in price/vol." Expect to see furious short covering later but down again tomorrow. It is how it is. |
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wbwee88
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07-Aug-2008 13:57
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Any gd & CHEAP COUNTERS to buy in ?
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elfinchilde
Elite |
07-Aug-2008 13:53
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on 5th aug, cwquah and i (we're independent, unrelated techies) already warned not to touch this counter. plus, i gave added warning to wait at least one day if you want to buy, and that there were lots of other valuable counters. no surprise that this counter is down. in first place, its FA is not strong, all its profits have been priced in already. in second place, note how often the directors trade this stock, as well as how often the analysts change from buy call to sell call, to buy call (i had said on 19 or 20th jun that since they've now issued buy call, it means they're going to start selling). fundamentals do not change overnight. What changes, however, is sentiment. as well as how the BBs manipulate it. Retailers would do well to learn this. have personally called cut on this counter since 7.5. just let it find its natural bottom now. market's a savage place, make no mistake about that. the Houses in this are damn good tho. Never go against them.
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wbwee88
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07-Aug-2008 13:50
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Any comments whether cosco will drop further or nw gd time to buy in ? thks
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Ryanwong
Member |
07-Aug-2008 13:47
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Look at the volume of trades on 5th August 2008. On 4th August 2008, COSCO announced their results. Did the results look like they justified a sell off of that volume? The volume of trades done on 5th August is only lower than the volume done on 10th April 2008. On 10th April the sell off was justified by analysts who were saying that the cancellation of ONE order would lead to several more cancellations etc. The volume of selling was so high. All investors selling? Or shorting? Looking at the volume of trades done on 5th August and the trading patterns my opinion is that the counter was severely shorted. And investors were scratching their heads asking why? And then we have the news of Mr Ji being "retired" on 6th August 2008. How perfect the reason to explain what happened on the 5th. I dunno but I can never understand why when it is so obvious, why SGX doesn't go and investigate. |
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zionbee
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07-Aug-2008 13:39
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Do COSCO brief the institutional player before the actual annuoucement? | ||||
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Ryanwong
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07-Aug-2008 13:29
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COSCO is extremely poor in managing public relations. Previously the handling of the cancellation of order and lack of deposits was very poor. And now this. Let Mr Ji do the media briefing for company financial results on Monday and then announce that he has to "retire" on Wednesday. Excellent piece of work. What's the purpose in doing it like that? Did they find out Mr Ji did something so horrible between Monday and Wednesday that he had to go right away? Mr Ji himself said he did not know of this move to "retire" him. If indeed Mr Ji did something really bad.....well this stock is going to drop further. The other possibility is that this is just how China COSCO likes to do things. Well then I'd say they can forget about confident investors. In fact I suspect that COSCO doesn't give two hoots about retail investors. The institutional players were given the heads up about this and they started shorting it like mad already. How convenient. Extremely poor. COSCO's public relations madness allows it to be manipulated severely. A counter for the gamblers. No longer vested cut at big loss but feel a lot better. I expect that we will never hear why Mr Ji was "retired" or maybe hear some reason a few months later (just like their CFO's "personal reasons" for leaving being kena charged for insider trading). |
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investsgx
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07-Aug-2008 13:09
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As known, Ji do not have huge Cosco share which may affect the share price. The concern mainly is the prospect under the new managment. When I post the entry http://investsgx.blogspot.com/2008/08/can-cosco-corp-stand-out.html, my guess is how the good set of result will manage to counter the general external bad working condition, ie. raising material price, weaker market outlook etc. The 'retirement' has come at the worst possible timing. However, judge from the volume and price trend a few days before the announcement, someone insider, or some insider group, already shorting like mad. |
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zionbee
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07-Aug-2008 12:47
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Do Ji Hai Sheng have any COSCO shares? If yes, is he selling it this few days? Please advise. | ||||
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exchange23
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07-Aug-2008 12:00
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beating up marine sector...... think dont watch market better |
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nickyng
Supreme |
07-Aug-2008 12:00
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wow...40000lots TOP vol today siah ?!?!?! hee...is this another CAO?? hee....oops... :D |
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how long have you been playing/observing the market?