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Dow Outlook
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
03-Jul-2013 09:07
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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The odds for a strong second half for stocks ....How will the market perform between now and Dec. 31?.... How you react to this column will depend on whether you see the glass as half full or half empty. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
03-Jul-2013 09:00
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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x 1 Alert Admin |
U.S. stocks finish lower as jobs report looms ....SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) ? U.S. stocks ended lower Tuesday, losing steam gained from reports showing solid growth for car sales and factory orders as investors anticipated the jobs report at the end of the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 42.55 points, or 0.3%, at 14,932.41, with shares of General Electric Co. and Boeing Co. the day?s worst performers. The Dow industrials had traded as high as 74 points earlier in the session. The S& P 500 slipped 0.88 point to close at 1,614.08, with industrials and materials lagging the most. The index was up as much as 9 points earlier. The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.09 points to finish at 3,433.40, even though Apple Inc. shares finished the day up 2.3%. Earlier, the index was up as high as 19 points. Volume should be relatively light this week, with many traders taking vacations around Thursday?s Independence Day holiday. Besides shutting down Thursday for the holiday, U.S. stock markets will close early Wednesday. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
02-Jul-2013 11:19
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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A dirty little secret about financial media is that many pundits make wild calls because their audience has a short attention span and will never hold them accountable.  By Jeff Reeves ....
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
02-Jul-2013 10:39
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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x 0 Alert Admin |
S& P 500 to hold above 1525 with bottom likely in mid-July: Deutsche Bank analystsAnalysts at Deutsche Bank say second-quarter financial results won’t be good enough to resolve continuing uncertainty over the U.S. economy. However, in spite of the recent selloff, equities remain a safe bet over the long term, argue David Bianco, Priya Hariani, and Ju Wang. The analysts cite commodity and currency strength since stock selloff started in late May. “To our relief, oil prices held up very well with WTI $92-98 and the Euro e successfully defended $1.30, this supports S& P EPS.” Some 40% of S& P 500 SPX earnings per share come from outside the United States, with 25% coming from developed markets, and 15% from emerging markets, the analysts point out. China accounts for 5% of the the S& P 500’s earnings directly, but more indirectly because of its influence on commodity prices and capital expenditures. They conclude that the S& P 500 should hold above 1,525 during the rest of the summer with a bottom likely in mid July (ie 七 翻 身 ), given preliminary signs that 10-year yields are stabilizing at 2.5%. – Tom Bemis .... |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
02-Jul-2013 09:44
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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June's 'Sell Side indicator' says time to join buy side Why U.S. stocks could be 24% higher next JulyIn the short run, the stock market is a voting machine. But although the S& P 500 Index has soared more than 20% over the past year, Wall Street strategists are still reluctant to cast their ballot for stocks, which is exactly what you want as an investor. To clarify, when Wall Street strategists are bullish on stocks, you should be cautious – looking at selling assets in your portfolio that others want to buy. It’s the same buy-low, sell-high rationale that would have you unloading a house in San Francisco and buying in Cleveland, but with far cheaper moving costs. The June reading of the monthly Bank of America Merrill Lynch “Sell Side Indicator” suggests that bullish Wall Street strategists are still a rare sight, while the bears are not hibernating in their glass-paneled offices. Strategists are recommending that investors keep 49.8% of their portfolio in stocks. That’s the highest level in 13 months, but significantly below the traditional benchmark weighting of 60% to 65%. That’s bullish for stocks – implying an expected 12-month return of 24% for the U.S. market, which would put the S& P 500 at 1955. Historically, when the Sell Side Indicator is below 50, as it stands now, the U.S. market’s total return has been positive 100% of the time, with median 12-month gains of 30%. “Wall Street’s bearishness on equities remains at extreme levels relative to history,” BofA strategist Savita Subramanian wrote in a report to clients, published Monday. “Given the contrarian nature of this indicator, we remain encouraged by Wall Street’s ongoing lack of optimism.” – Jonathan Burton .... |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
02-Jul-2013 09:33
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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U.S. stocks rise on manufacturing dataSAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — U.S. stocks closed higher Monday, but well off session highs reached after a survey of U.S. manufacturers added to positive economic reports from Europe and Japan. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished up 65.36 points, or 0.4%, at 14,974.96, after trading up as much as 174 points during the session. It’s the fifth session out of the past 21 where the Dow has not closed with a triple-digit move. The S& P 500 advanced 8.68 points, or 0.5%, to close at 1,614.96, coming off an earlier gain of 20 points. Cyclical stocks led the charge with industrials and materials the best performers, while defensive stocks such as telecoms and utilities closed lower. Both the Dow industrials and S& P 500 have closed higher four out of the past five sessions. The Nasdaq Composite had its fifth day of consecutive gains, adding 31.24 points, or 0.9%, to close at 3,434.49, after being up as much as 51 points intraday. ....the market is treating good news as good news again .... |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
01-Jul-2013 11:14
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
胡 立 阳 ： 下 半 年 美 股 将 大 跌 不 要 买 房 .... |
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beginners
Senior |
29-Jun-2013 14:35
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I still don't quite understand the stock market. Is it a real fear? Or is it a fake fear created by big fund or fund managers. Or is it a real fear from investors? Any shifu can enlighten me? Thks. | ||
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tanglinboy
Elite |
29-Jun-2013 11:29
Yells: "hello!" |
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Markets are yoyo now. Until the fear ends. | ||
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
29-Jun-2013 08:55
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Stocks finished mixed as month, quarter ends ....Stocks fluctuated Friday and ended the day mixed as investors took a breather after the first three-day winning streak for the Dow Jones industrial average since late April. The Dow Jones industrial average closed down 114.89 points, 0.8%, to 14,909.60, after gaining 365 points the previous three days. The broader S& P's 500 index ended down 6.92 points, 0.4%, to 1,606.28 and posted its first monthly loss since October. The index still finished June with the best first half of a year since 1998, when it gained 17.7%, including dividends. The index has gained 13.8% so far this year. Mixed economic news put a damper on buying as a key measure of consumer confidence remained near its highest level in six years, but a closely watched index of business in the Chicago area had its biggest monthly drop since 2008. " Investors don't know what to make of the news," said John Toohey, vice president of stock investment at USAA Investments. " I wouldn't be surprised to see more ups and downs." The Nasdaq composite index finished up 1.38 points to 3,403.25, despite major losses for smartphone manufacturer Blackberry. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
28-Jun-2013 10:55
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Emerging Market Growth Hits Lowest Since Financial Crisis ....Emerging market (EM) growth has slowed to its weakest pace since the global financial crisis, research firm Capital Economics said on Thursday. Average growth in emerging Asia, Latin America and emerging Europe slowed to 4% year-on-year in the first quarter of this year, according to data from Capital Economics and Thomson Datastream. In comparison, EMs grew by an average of 6.4 % during the past decade. GDP numbers from April suggest the second quarter could be no better, with all the regions posting slowing or very weak growth. " Our GDP Tracker suggests that growth weakened again in April, and that the emerging world as a whole is now growing at its slowest pace since the global financial crisis," said Gareth Leather, Asia economist at Capital Economics, in a research note published on Thursday. The news will come as a blow to economists and policymakers hopeful that EMs can be the engine of global economic growth and boost anemic demand in the developed world. Indeed, Leather said that some developing economies would themselves be hampered by low global demand. " The smaller more trade-dependent economies look set to remain weak until there is a meaningful recovery in global demand," he said. Meanwhile, the slowdown in the biggest EMs is more likely due to structural factors, said Leather. " Overall, our GDP Tracker provides a reminder that the next year is likely to prove difficult for most EMs, and that a strong and sustained recovery remains some way away," he said. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
28-Jun-2013 08:34
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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U.S. stocks climb as tapering fears tamed ....Reports show improvement in wages, spending jobs and housingU.S. stocks surged for a third session on Thursday on upbeat economic data and reiterations from Federal Reserve officials that monetary policy depends on the economic outlook. “The interesting thing is we can have some decent economic numbers and the market doesn’t head to the cellar, given the usual worry about the Fed turning the spigot off,” said Bruce McCain, chief investment strategist at Key Private Bank. On track for Wall Street’s first up week in three and first monthly drop this year, stocks retreated in recent weeks after Ben Bernanke told Congress on May 22 that the central bank could curb its bond purchases as long as the economy continues to improve. The S& P 500 index on Thursday remained about 55 points from its record closing high hit on May 21, and ended up 9.94 points, or 0.6%, at 1,613.20. Financials led the gains and materials was the sole laggard among its 10 major sectors. “We’re setting up for a little better third quarter, maybe not gang busters, but as long as we don’t lose Uncle Ben’s help, that would argue for some decent market action,” said McCain at Key Private Bank. Making its 15th triple-digit move for June, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 114.35 points, or 0.8%, at 15,024.49. “Volatility has picked up, but that’s probably a good sign, because it was abnormally suppressed,” said McCain. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 25.64 points, or 0.8%, to 3,401.86. |
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LoveToInvest
Veteran |
28-Jun-2013 06:19
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x 0
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Ole !!!!! STI chiong ah,
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
27-Jun-2013 22:29
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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US Economy Could Grow 5% in Late 2014: Fund Manager ....Despite pullbacks in stocks, the bull market likely has a " way to go" in anticipation of " much more robust economic growth" over the next few years than many economists expect, portfolio manager Ed Keon says in his mid-year outlook. " The call is a 5% quarter?maybe two, but I think one?sometime in the second half of next year," Keon of Prudential's Quantitative Management Associates said on CNBC Thursday. " The U.S. economy is like Secretariat with a sumo wrestler as a jockey," he joked in a " Squawk Box" interview, saying that if the federal government steps aside " the underlying strength of the private economy will shine through." He added that the 2013 tax increases knocked down growth by 2 to 3% but by next year the impact should diminish. " At the same time," he continued, " you had cuts in both federal and state and local government spending that in the first quarter also pulled about 1% out of what GDP growth would have been otherwise." Keon also pointed out that state and local government tax collections were up 10% from the first quarter. " You'll start to see that state and local governments will be positive contributors to GDP," he said. The resilient U.S consumers are also " back and feeling better" because of their increase in wealth due to the gains in the stock market and the recovery in housing, he wrote in his mid-year outlook. He also made the case that the bull market will only end when stocks become overvalued, and " we are still far away from that." " [So] if you sum our rough estimates above and add a 2% current GDP run rate, you would get GDP of 5% to 6 %," he wrote. " This might seem implausibly high today, but if we are correct, it could be routine in a couple of years." |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
27-Jun-2013 08:45
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Stock rebound gains traction, Dow jumps ....Stocks rose for a second straight day Wednesday as a report that economic growth was smaller than originally estimated eased concerns about the Federal Reserve pulling back on its stimulus program. The Dow Jones industrial average index jumped 149.83 points, or 1.0%, to 14,910.14. The S& P's 500 index gained 15.23, or 0.9%, to 1,603.26 and the Nasdaq composite index rose 28.34, or 0.8%, to 3,376.22. Traders bought bonds and yields fell after the government reported that the U.S. economy grew at a significantly slower rate than previously thought in the first three months this year. The annual rate is now estimated at 1.8%, compared with an earlier forecast of 2.4% . |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
26-Jun-2013 21:21
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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x 1
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43 of 45 global markets look oversold: BofA/Merrill Lynch ....Global markets have endured some fierce selling in recent weeks, so much so that Bank of America Merrill Lynch strategists say something called the Global Breadth Rule has been invoked, meaning selling has been overdone. That rule ?quantifies the extent to which global equity markets are overbought or oversold and whether there are still marginal sellers on the sidelines.? Michael Hartnett, the firm?s chief investment strategist, says in a note dated June 25 that 43 out of 45 markets are now ?oversold? ? trading below their 200- and 50 day-moving averages. History shows that this Breadth Buy signal tends to be followed by 6% to 7% gains in the subsequent four to six weeks. However, before you get too excited, Hartnett also notes that the Breadth rule is contrarian and only argues for a short-term equity bounce. To get a more sustained rally, ?requires policy changes to force shift in investor behavior,? he says. In addition, the two markets that aren?t in that buy territory right now are the U.S. and Japan ? which just happen to be two of the biggest stock markets in the world. Of course, the rule isn?t exactly foolproof. It failed in July 2008, when deleveraging across asset prices triggered an equity-market meltdown. One of the most oversold markets, according to Hartnett, is the Chinese market, which has been trashed in recent sessions but is heavily domestic. Another trade that is overdone are markets that tap into the so-called carry trade, in which cheaper funding is used to buy an asset that yields more, allowing an investor to capture the yield spread. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
26-Jun-2013 16:48
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
26-Jun-2013 16:45
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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x 1
x 0 Alert Admin |
Guess Who Was Buying Amid the June Sell-Off ....Fears arising from a tapering of stimulus in the U.S. may have resulted in a sell-off in global equity and bond markets in June, but a recent survey shows institutional investors' confidence was high that month with a healthy appetite for risk. An index - developed by the investment research arm of Wall Street firm State Street Corporation - which measures risk appetite based on stock buying and selling patterns of institutional investors rose to 106.8 in June, up over 12% from May. A reading of 100 is considered neutral - where investors are neither increasing nor decreasing their long term allocations to risky assets. According to Harvard University professor Kenneth Froot, who co-developed the State Street global Investor Confidence Index (ICI), the " robust" increase in the index number shows that institutional investors took somewhat contrarian positions in June. Paul O'Connell of State Street Associates, who also developed the index, added: " While the prospect of an end to QE in the U.S. has caused a spike in bond yields and a sell-off in equities, institutional investors have viewed this as an opportunity to add equity risk at the expense of bond holdings." U.S. benchmark indexes - the S& P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average - are both down more than 5% from yearly highs hit in May. They are down over 2% in June alone, while the MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan stock index has also fallen 11% over the past month. But despite fears of the Fed scaling back its stimulus, risk appetite in June was driven largely by North American institutional investors, according to the survey. There was a more than 11% increase in risk appetite to 114 points among North American institutional investors in June from May, while confidence among European and Asian institutions increased 5% and over 3%, respectively. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
26-Jun-2013 09:23
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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x 1
x 1 Alert Admin |
Goldman Sachs: We Were Wrong, but Stocks Will Rally ....Global stock markets may be in the middle of a correction as this year's bull run slowly vanishes, but Peter Oppenheimer, Goldman Sachs' European equities strategist told CNBC that equities will continue to rally after a " processing" period comes to an end. ... " The Fed's own forecast for growth this year is stronger than our own by about half a percent. And to justify bringing Fed tapering forward, growth has really got to be stronger and that ultimately will be supportive for risky assets." " We believe the next phase for equities will really be driven by fundamental profit growth as opposed to valuation expansion." ... " The stronger the correction, the sooner it is likely to end. From an economic standpoint, investing in equities is likely to prove worthwhile again only towards the end of the third quarter of 2013]," the bank said in a research note on Friday. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
26-Jun-2013 08:58
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
U.S. stocks rally on upbeat economic data .... China helps calm market concerns, saying rates will be reasonable U.S. stocks rose sharply on Tuesday as Wall Street cheered upbeat economic data showing increases in durable-goods orders, new-home sales and consumer confidence. “For the first time in this current cycle, we’ve looked at good economic data as good news. If we continue to get the market reacting positively to good economic data, we’ve gotten to the place we should be,” said Art Hogan, market strategist at Lazard Capital Markets LLC. “If we can continue to root for good news in the economic-data stream, that’s going to be a major transition” from worrying about what the reports mean for U.S. monetary policy, Hogan added. “Good news for the economy should be good news for investors and this report is good,” emailed Dan Greenhaus, chief global strategist at BTIG LLC, referring to the durable-goods report. After closing at its lowest level since April 22 on Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average on Tuesday climbed 100.75 points, or 0.7%, to end at 14,760.31, with only four of its 30 components ending in negative territory. During Tuesday’s session, the Dow rose as much as 152.47 points. The S& P 500 index added 14.94 points, or 1%, to 1,588.03, with all of its 10 major sectors ending in positive territory. Telecommunications and financials posted the biggest sector gains. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 27.13 points, or 0.8%, to 3,347.89. On Tuesday, 810 million shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange. Composite volume topped 3.6 billion. |
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