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Rubber prices
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
02-Apr-2008 23:01
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Rubber futures on TOCOM gathered steam again Wed afternoon, snapping a brief setback toward the morning close. The benchmark, most distant Sep '08 contract traded at 286.1 yen per kg at 3:45 p.m. Tokyo time, expanding its gain from Tue to 4.8 yen. |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
02-Apr-2008 12:02
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Tokyo rubber futures are likely to stay below 300 yen in Apr, with the yen surging to multi-year highs against the dollar, but record high oil, tight stocks and steady demand from main consumer China would cushion a decline. The most active contract on TOCOM, currently Sep '08, would trade at 280 yen (US$2.81) per kg by the end of Apr, down 15.8% from the previous forecast of 332.5 yen, a Reuters poll showed on Tue. It has struggled to stay above the psychological level of 300 yen since spiking to 324.3 yen on Feb 26, its highest since Jun '06. It hit a 3-month low of 266.1 yen on Mar 21 on a heavy sell-off in commodities, with a firm yen adding to the pressure. But Tokyo futures could rebound to 288.8 yen by the end of May, with movements in other commodities expected to dictate prices, according to a median forecast of 10 analysts. "Demand is still intact especially from China," said Suryadi Mulya of CV Dramaga in Indonesia's West Java city of Bogor. "The rubber market is highly influenced by other technical factors, such as oil, gold, stocks and currencies. Funds could buy back if those factors support." Tokyo's recent gains have been partly driven by record oil above US$100 a barrel, which in theory makes prices of NR more affordable than SR, a petrochemical product whose prices move in line with oil. However, surging Japanese currency deflates yen-based rubber prices and spurs selling from speculators, though analysts said lower inventories in Japan as well as tight supplies in Southeast Asia would offer much-needed support. "Considering that inventories usually drop around May, I think TOCOM prices are expected to stay strong," said Hisaaki Tasaka of Ace Koeki in Tokyo. "Other commodities prices also play an important part to determine the price outlook." Japan's crude rubber inventories fell 1.9% to 12,069 tonnes by Mar 10 from 12,304 tonnes in the previous survey to Feb 29, according to the Rubber Trade Association of Japan. The stocks, measured roughly every 10 days, were 32.2% below the 17,807 tonnes on Mar 10 '07, reflecting tighter supplies in main producers Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia. "Farmers would resume tapping in Apr, but it doesn't mean that production will rise immediately. Rubber trees need time to rejuvenate," said a dealer in Thailand's Hat Yai rubber centre said. A survey of six dealers in the three producing countries showed cash prices would drop slightly by the end of Apr, when most farmers resume tapping, but demand from China could limit the fall. China buys rubber from main producers Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia as well as Vietnam. It imported 1.65 million tonnes of NR in '07, up 2.2% from a year earlier. |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
01-Apr-2008 23:01
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Tokyo rubber fell 2.6% on Tue on heavy stop-loss selling triggered by a sharp decline of oil and gold prices. The benchmark rubber contract on TOCOM for Sep delivery fell 7.2 yen, or 2.6%, to 281.3 yen (US$2.81) per kg. TOCOM rubber prices rallied about 3% to a 2-week high on Mon in volatile trade on short covering after recent steep declines. But falls of crude oil prices on Tue prompted investors to sell contracts in a bid to stop losses, dealers said. TOCOM prices were likely to be supported after finishing above the key psychological level of 280 yen per kg, dealers said. "TOCOM may rebound on Wednesday if oil prices don't fall below US$100 a barrel," one said. Limited supply in the world's top 3 producing countries -- Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia -- still provided support to TOCOM, traders said. In the physical market, rubber prices were quoted mostly lower, tracking TOCOM falls, but the dip was likely to lure buyers, including Chinese firms, back to the market, traders said. Physical prices were expected to remain firm over the next few weeks as tapping in Thailand and Malaysia was still suspended, traders said. The wintering dry season, when tapping stops, is coming to a close in Thailand and Malaysia. But full-scale tapping was unlikely to resume until the 2nd half of Apr, due partly to a holiday in Thailand, a trader said. |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
31-Mar-2008 23:36
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Rubber futures on TOCOM strengthened on renewed buying Mon afternoon, wiping out the losses in the morning session. The benchmark, most distant Sep '08 contract traded at 283.4 yen per kg at 3:45 p.m. Tokyo time, up 2.4 yen from Fri. |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
28-Mar-2008 19:43
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Rubber futures on TOCOM remained under selling after 4 days of rise Fri afternoon. The most distant Sep '08 contract traded at 281.5 yen per kg at 3:45 p.m. Tokyo time, down 4.2 yen from the previous day. The contract briefly slipped below 280 yen, rewriting its listing-to-date low at 279.8 yen. |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
27-Mar-2008 21:34
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Tokyo rubber futures edged higher on Thu for a third straight session due to a jump of oil prices and supply concerns. The benchmark rubber contract on TOCOM for Sep delivery rose 2.3 yen to end at 286.3 yen per kg at 3:45 p.m Tokyo time. Crude oil held gains from Wed's rally of more than US$4 a barrel after a U.S. government report showed larger-than-expected drops in fuel stocks and declining fuel production in the world's top oil consumer. U.S. light crude for May delivery was up 43 US cents at US$106.33 a barrel at 0245 GMT. Expectations of strong physical rubber demand from China were also lending support to the Tokyo market, traders said. "I think a challenge toward 288 yen is well in sight as the current tight supply/demand conditions stay intact until May," said a manager at a Japanese commodities brokerage, referring to the distant month contract. "There are downside risks if pre-Olympics demand from China dwindles, contrary to the market's expectations. But I don't think that's likely to happen," he said. In China, irregular weather has forced plantations in the south to postpone tapping and reduced rubber stocks, he added. In Thailand and Malaysia, farmers have stopped tapping during the dry season, when trees stop producing latex. They should resume tapping in late Apr. Physical rubber prices were higher. Trade was likely to be busier with most European tyremakers back from holidays while Chinese and Japanese buyers were expected to replenish falling stocks, traders said. |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
27-Mar-2008 00:22
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Rubber futures on TOCOM moved up Wed afternoon, shrugging off weakness toward the morning close. The benchmark Aug '08 contract rose 2.8 yen from Tue to 282.8 yen per kg at 3:45 p.m Tokyo time. The new Sep '08 contract stood at 284.8 yen, slightly down from its debut price of 285 yen. |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
25-Mar-2008 23:08
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Rubber futures on TOCOM expanded gains on continuous buying Tue afternoon. The benchmark, most distant Aug '08 contract rose 4.8 yen from Mon to 278.9 yen per kg at 3:45 p.m Tokyo time. |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
24-Mar-2008 22:31
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Natural rubber futures in Tokyo closed unchanged after falling toward a 3- month low as a rally in stocks raised speculation that investors may shift money away from commodities into equities. "Investors who had bought commodities as an alternative to the U.S. currency and stocks may be unwinding the positions amid speculation the worst may be over for the U.S. financial market turmoil," Takaki Shigemoto, an analyst at Tokyo-based commodity broker Okachi & Co., said by telephone today. Rubber for Aug delivery fell as much as 1.1% to 271 yen a kg (US$2,709 a metric ton) on TOCOM before ending at 274.1 yen. The most-active contract reached 266.1 on Mar 21, the lowest since Dec 6 and a 17% drop from a 20-month high of 321.7 yen on Feb 20, when record oil prices and a weakening dollar boosted the appeal of commodities as an inflation hedge. Rubber futures were underpinned by rising demand from China, the world's largest rubber user, Shigemoto said. China's imports of natural rubber grew 34.6% from a year earlier to 134,311 tons in Feb, data from the Beijing- based Customs General Administration showed today. Rubber is used as a raw material to make vehicle tyres. China's passenger-car sales rose 17% to 488,900, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said Mar 10. The growth followed a 20% increase in Jan. "Chinese demand is strong and giving support to rubber prices," Shigemoto said. Nissan Motor CEO Carlos Ghosn said Mar 21 that sales of Japan's 3rd-largest carmaker will rise next fiscal year on demand from emerging markets. Global demand for natural rubber rose 5.4% to 9.72 million tons last year, led by growth in China, according to the International Rubber Study Group. Chinese consumption rose 5.6% to 2.53 million tons, representing 26% of global demand, the London-based group said in a report. "The market was supported by short-covering after being sold repeatedly in the last several weeks," Kanetsu Asset Management analyst Jun Nishimuta said. Physical rubber supplies were scarce as farmers in Thailand and Malaysia have stopped tapping in the dry season which should last until late Apr. Supplies in Indonesia were also tight due to the onset of the dry season in northern Sumatra, which usually lasts through May, and tapping in other producing areas was disrupted by heavy rain. |
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Nostradamus
Supreme |
19-Mar-2008 23:39
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The whole world is reading this forum, you know? Rubber futures on TOCOM came under renewed selling Wed afternoon, losing all or part of the morning gains. The benchmark, most distant Aug '08 contract traded at 282.8 yen per kg at 3:45 p.m. Tokyo time, trimming its gain from Tue to 0.4 yen. |
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Nostradamus
Supreme |
19-Mar-2008 23:34
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Bearlish. Is there such a word? It's not a genuine mistake because you did it twice. The world world is reading this forum, not just Singaporeans. Plssss don't shame us because the global audience think this is our standard of English. |
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Stockking
Master |
19-Mar-2008 22:41
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From bullish to bearlish! From "hit 18c soon" to "was a bubble at20c"! From "Market already factor in the POOR result" to "it could fall to around $0.12". Definitely, the -44.9% drop in profit despite great run in the NR price is having a negative impact!! I can see the fear! |
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Nostradamus
Supreme |
19-Mar-2008 00:36
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Isn't there synthetic rubber? In fact, consumption of SR is higher than that of NR. Rubber futures on TOCOM lacked strength Tue afternoon, hovering in a lower range amid continuous selling. The benchmark, most distant Aug '08 contract fell 8.7 yen from Mon to 280.2 yen per kg at 3:45 p.m Tokyo time. |
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shplayer
Elite |
18-Mar-2008 23:57
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For weather, try this http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/world/africa/#no_url For political situation, try google. |
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DeepThoughts
Member |
18-Mar-2008 23:41
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already vested in this counter since EML. you are absolutely right that political situation and also weather condition will afffect the output in their plantations. Any leads to keep track the weather and polical situation of the above? I have no doubt that the supply and demand situation for rubber will not ease for the next 10 years due to under investment in rubber plantations. BRIC countries, Brazil, Russia, India and China are expected to be the driving force in this century. There is still no potential synthetic replacement for natural rubber. |
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shplayer
Elite |
18-Mar-2008 22:02
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DeepThoughts, Precisely my point.........I prefer to invest in counters that are trading close to or at a discount to a 'undervalued' NAV and with financially sound operations. Of course, a company with assets revalued is more transparent and easier to assess.......but then, so can everyone else.....so it tends to be more fully valued. On the issue of rubber wood, I am not sure it is entirely a good thing. This implies that some of their plantations have reached its productive life and are being felled and the wood sold (mainly for the furniture industry). The question is, does this mean a loss in production? or have they got a replanting program to ensure output is not affected. Bear in mind, rubbers trees becomes productive about 7 yrs after planting. Another concern is the political unrest in the Ivory Coast........the smaller of the 2 African plantation........how will it affect production? Currently not vested.....but closely monitoring. |
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DeepThoughts
Member |
18-Mar-2008 21:00
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Last years drop in earnings was due to bad weather. you can see that 4th quarter results has improved tremendously compared to the previous quarters. additional production capacity from Kalimantan will also add to sales and profits this year Company also recently set up new subsidiary dealing with rubber wood products. NTA was nearly 14cts as at Dec 2007. it's time to bottom fish for those with 6 to 12 months outlook |
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DeepThoughts
Member |
18-Mar-2008 20:42
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shplayer If you compare the gross profit of GMG and Golden Agri. GMG is higher at 46% compare to 35% for Golden Agri. As for Asset Revaluation, it reflects the potentian hidden value of the company. This is similar to Property Counters or Reits. A fair value reflects the actual worth of the company assets. Eg UIC price has also shot up due to Asset Revaluation. Not just increase in profits only. The management of GMG has kept a very low profile as compared to other Commodity Counters such as Golden Agri, Wilmar etc. It is just a matter of time that this counter will get the attention from investors and BBs. |
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Stockking
Master |
18-Mar-2008 18:26
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Drop again today.... From bullish to bearlish! From "hit 18c soon" to "was a bubble at20c"! From "Market already factor in the POOR result" to "it could fall to around $0.12". Definitely, the -44.9% drop in profit despite great run in the NR price is having a negative impact!! I can see the fear! |
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shplayer
Elite |
18-Mar-2008 08:45
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DeepThoughts, Asset revaluation impacts P&L and BS....but has no impact on Cash Flow. Personally, I prefer to put more weighting on the operational performance of a company rather than fianacial 'juggling'. |
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