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billywows
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30-Aug-2006 02:31
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Dow & Nasdaq smelled the flat line ..... now down again after digesting the last paragrapgh of the Fed's minutes. Remember that the meeting was held on 08th Aug. But when everyone weighs the recent economic data again and then expects another rate pause in 20th September - markets will swing up again. Hope my analysis is right ... :P |
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billywows
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30-Aug-2006 02:18
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Fed Minutes below. Dow & Nasdaq up now .... Shiok! See how Dow shoots up after 2am. THE FED
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - A new Fed staff forecast of below-trend growth over the next year and a half was a key factor in the central bank's decision to stop tightening after two years of steady rate hikes, according to the minutes of the meeting released on Tuesday.
The Fed staff presented a new forecast at the closed door meeting indicating that real gross domestic product would grow below-trend for the next year and a half.
Factors behind the lower growth rate were "the slowdown in the housing market, the effects of higher energy prices on household purchasing power, the waning impetus of household wealth effects on consumer spending and the effects of past policy tightenings."
A majority of FOMC members cited the slower growth outlook was one of the central forces that could push core inflation down gradually in coming months.
"Most FOMC members thought that, with energy prices possibly leveling out, aggregate demand moderating and long-term inflation expectations contained, core PCE inflation likely would decline gradually from its recent elevated level, though the upside risks to inflation were significant," the minutes showed.
There seemed to be some, but not a great deal, of sympathy on the FOMC for Richmond Fed president Jeffrey Lacker's dissent at the August meeting in favor of additional tightening.
The minutes show that "nearly all FOMC members" favored the August pause, the first since the Fed began steady rate increases in June 2004.
A rate pause would allow the FOMC to gather more data about the economy. Another argument to hold rates steady was the uncertain impact on the economy of the 17 rate hikes.
"The full effect of previous increases in interest rates on activity and prices probably had not yet been felt, and a pause was viewed as appropriate to limit the risks of tightening too much," the minutes said.
FOMC members generally saw "limited risk" in deferring a rate hike, as inflation expectations remained contained.
On the other hand, "many" FOMC members saw the decision as a "close call" and agreed further rate hikes might be needed.
Greg Robb is a senior reporter for MarketWatch in Washington. |
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billywows
Elite |
30-Aug-2006 00:17
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Starts at 2am, Ralphguy, but the reporters sure run out to 'big mouth' them cos the whole world waiting for the minutes ... Dow and Nasdaq will go ding-dong. Btw, for TA experts, do you think this is true below? Cos I expect a good rally in September. http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/story.aspx?guid=%7B1162619D-669E-4AC9-8030-20CEA6389844%7D |
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ralphguy
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29-Aug-2006 23:08
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FOMC at 2am??? do you mean announce at 2am or 2am then start? this seems to have quite a big impact le... hopefully is GD one.... |
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billywows
Elite |
29-Aug-2006 22:32
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$INDU] Dow industrials down 32 pts at 11,320
$COMPQ] Nasdaq Composite down 10 pts at 2,151
[$SPX] S&P 500 Index down 4 pts at 1,298
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billywows
Elite |
29-Aug-2006 22:24
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Dow & Nasdaq just slight down ... volume is low too. Awaiting the 2am's FOMC minutes now, which is the BIG ONE. |
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billywows
Elite |
29-Aug-2006 22:08
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U.S. consumer confidence falls sharply in August |
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billywows
Elite |
29-Aug-2006 21:50
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Consumer confidence data coming out in 10 minutes time ... watch Dow & Nasdaq. Both flat like pan cake at 0.00 point now. |
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billywows
Elite |
29-Aug-2006 18:55
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STI 'chiong-ed' up 1.17% to close at 2,455.33 today! Tonite's US trading is very interesting at 2am S'pore time .... Hope can wake up to see 'Live' chart (www.matchwatch.com) of Dow & Nasdaq dancing up or down to the tune of the Fed's minutes. ----------------------------- S&P 500 futures rose 1.1 points at 1,304.80 and Nasdaq 100 futures were up 2 points at 1,572.50. Dow industrial futures rose 13 points.
The Dow industrials rose nearly 68 points and the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 indexes also improved on Monday, helped by crude oil futures reaching a two-month low as Tropical Storm Ernesto veered away from the Gulf of Mexico and from Wal-Mart Stores' August sales growth.
For Tuesday, the minutes from the FOMC meeting are due at 2 p.m. Eastern, and while inflation concerns are expected to be sounded, they're not seen as strong enough to derail the market's opinion that will rates will be kept on hold for the time being. (*Green-color for 'LUCK")
Also on the agenda Tuesday will be the Conference Board's August consumer confidence poll, expected to fall to 102.7 from 106.5 in July.
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tanglinboy
Elite |
29-Aug-2006 08:41
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The Dow was up 67 points yesterday! Oil prices also fell quite a lot yesterday. STI today will chiong!!! |
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billywows
Elite |
29-Aug-2006 05:43
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Dow & Nasdaq up good! MARKET SNAPSHOT NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks closed sharply higher Monday, after a weakening of Tropical Storm Ernesto relieved investors and sent crude prices lower.
Positive momentum was reinforced by news that energy transporter Kinder Morgan accepted a $22 billion buyout and by other bits of mergers and acquisition news.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 67.96 points at 11,352.01, after earlier touching 11,387 -- its best intraday level since mid May.
The S&P 500 ended 6.69 points at 1,301.78, and the Nasdaq Composite Index added 20.41 points to 2,160.70.
Volume was light ahead of the Labor Day weekend. There were a little over 1.15 billion shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange, where rising shares outnumbered decliners by 23 to nine. A little more than 1.37 billion shares were traded on the Nasdaq, with nine stocks advancing for every five retreating.
"Today's rally was driven by three things. The first was the decline in crude prices," said Charles Campbell, a senior sales trader at Miller Tabak. "The second was strong sales news from Wal-Mart. And the third thing was the continued resiliency of mergers and acquisitions."
Peter Cardillo, chief market strategist at S.W. Bach said the decline in crude prices had added "flavor to the market."
In addition, "there are a lot of economic numbers later in the week," according to Jay Suskind, director of trading at Ryan Beck & Co. "The market is going to wait for more information about the economy. People are wondering whether we are going to get a hard landing or a slow landing."
Investors also monitored Ernesto, Suskind said. "There are still a lot of concerns about the storm. It's good that it may miss the Gulf of Mexico, but there is still a lot of concern about what it may do to other areas," he added.
The data highlight of the week should come Friday in the form of the employment report for this month, Suskind observed. "But we may not have a lot of people to hear it because we have skeletal crews."
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billywows
Elite |
28-Aug-2006 23:55
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Volume is 50% lower than normal in US .... Dow up 67 points and Nasdaq up 18 points. Lower oil in play now. |
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billywows
Elite |
28-Aug-2006 22:43
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MARKET SNAPSHOT
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billywows
Elite |
27-Aug-2006 14:39
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billywows
Elite |
26-Aug-2006 23:02
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What's up in US next week .... Long but informative. --------------------------------- Saturday August 26, 10:06 PM Summer's end may be stormy for stocksBy Jennifer CooganNEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street's summer comes to a close next week with what could be a toxic mix for stocks: No major earnings, an overload of A-list economic data, a storm headed for the Gulf of Mexico and trading desks staffed with third-string dealers. August payrolls and minutes from the Fed's last meeting may lead to choppy trading when plenty of market players will be on vacation during what for many is the last week of summer in the United States before schools reopen after the Labor Day holiday on September 4. "If you think volume stunk this week, wait until you see next week," said Barry Ritholtz, fund manager at Ritholtz Capital Partners in New York. "Volume has been really light, so whatever activity you see going on in the market, you have to take with a grain of salt. It's kind of like the kids are redecorating the living room and then, when the parents come back, they put it back the way it was." Looming over the market is a mounting debate among strategists and economists over whether the United States is heading for a gradual economic slowdown, or a full-fledged recession, especially after weaker home sales this week. "The slowdown in the housing market is bigger than people thought and the market is worried about the knock-off effect of the slowdown in consumer spending," said Kurt Karl, chief U.S. economist at Swiss Re New Markets in New York. Investors will get a sense of how worried the consumer really is on Tuesday with the release of consumer confidence data, forecast to show a decline this month from July. The University of Michigan will release the final reading of its August consumer sentiment survey on Friday. A WAGES AND WEATHER The week's most widely watched indicator will be the August nonfarm payrolls report, due on Friday. Economists polled by Reuters forecast that 120,000 jobs were added in August, up from 113,000 in July. With the Federal Reserve remaining vigilant about inflation, the market will be on the alert for any unexpected increase in average hourly earnings. The forecast calls for wages to go up 0.3 percent in August, after July's gain of 0.4 percent, the Reuters poll showed. The August unemployment rate is pegged at 4.7 percent, down from July's 4.8 percent. Investors may get a sense of where the Fed stands on inflation and growth on Tuesday when minutes from the last Federal Open Market Committee rate-setting meeting are released. In addition to wages and inflation, the weather will be on Wall Street's watch list. Bad weather brewing in the eastern Caribbean Sea could be dubbed Tropical Storm Ernesto later on Friday and could grow into a full-fledged hurricane by next week, forecasters said. "The ghost of Katrina is arriving right on schedule in the form of the next Caribbean storm. That's going to be on people's minds," said Fred Dickson, market strategist and director of retail research at D.A. Davidson & Co. in Lake Oswego, Oregon. "It will play into oil concerns and whether there will be any interruption to transportation and industry in the Gulf Coast states." Hurricane warnings could put the shares of insurers, oil producers and refiners in the spotlight next week. "The good news is that it looks like insurance carriers will be less vulnerable this year" since they were able to raise rates and reduce their exposure to insured properties, Dickson said. On Friday, both the Dow and the S&P 500 ended the session lower after the storm threatening the Gulf of Mexico sent crude oil prices higher. Traders were reluctant to have positions open over the weekend. The Nasdaq rose slightly. For the week, all three major U.S. stock indexes fell. The Dow declined 0.9 percent, while the S&P 500 shed 0.6 percent for the week and the Nasdaq dropped 1.1 percent. U.S. crude oil for October delivery rose 15 cents to settle on Friday at $72.51 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. For the week, the price of NYMEX October crude was up 0.6 percent. Iran's dispute with major world powers over its nuclear ambitions will stay on Wall Street's radar screen in the coming week. The deadline is Thursday for a United Nations nuclear watchdog report that will certify whether Iran has stopped uranium enrichment-related activity or not. "No one's been around as you've seen, the volume has been pretty light, and we're subject to more volatility that will continue into next week as well," said Tim Woolston, portfolio manager at Boston Advisors Inc. Among the major economic indicators on tap are "preliminary" data, actually a second look, at second-quarter gross domestic product, on Wednesday, followed by August indexes from purchasing managers in the Chicago and New York areas, plus July factory orders -- all due on Thursday. Those traders and strategists who aren't on the beach will be watching for key inflation data before Thursday's opening bell with the release of July personal income and consumption data. That report will include one of the Fed's favorite inflation measures, the core personal consumption expenditures index, or the core PCE index. It excludes volatile food and energy prices. The Institute for Supply Management is scheduled to report its August reading on U.S. manufacturing activity on Friday. The ISM index is expected to edge higher. Domestic car and truck sales for August, which are expected to come in at a slower pace than July's sales, also will be out on Friday. |
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tanglinboy
Elite |
26-Aug-2006 13:23
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Dow ended up down by 20 points last night. Monday STI will follow. |
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billywows
Elite |
25-Aug-2006 23:14
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Tornado warning for New York City area cancelled |
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billywows
Elite |
25-Aug-2006 23:08
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billywows
Elite |
25-Aug-2006 23:00
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Tornado warning issued for New York City area |
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billywows
Elite |
25-Aug-2006 22:31
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MARKET SNAPSHOT
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