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Midas
GoodMorningSir
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23-Mar-2013 09:21     
 
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Hi Cheongs!!

Look like you quite expert in this type of calculation.

Do you mind to share your excel worksheet with us to do this type of calculation?

I want to learn both fundamental and technical but do not have any expert to share..

Can you private msg me? Thanks .
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cheongsl
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23-Mar-2013 08:24     
 
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Hi Shareflux,

Ezion Holding 2009 2010 2011 2012
USD (m) USD (m) USD (m) USD (m)
Total Revenue

57

117.1

107

158.7

Net Income

13.3

40.2

58.1

78.8

Profit Margin 23.33% 34.33% 54.30% 49.65%
EPS USD 0.0953
Share price $2.040
PE 17.13
Midas 2009 2010 2011 2012
CNY(m) CNY(m) CNY(m) CNY(m)
Total Revenue 762.2 1,052.41 1,080.74 869.51
Net Income 190.77 246.02 187.36 25.613
Profit Margin 25.03% 23.38% 17.34% 2.95%
EPS RMB 0.02
Share price $0.515
PE 128.07
1USD = 1.2495SGD 1SGD = 4.9736RMB


Just take a rough calculation, the Ezion Hldg PE is only 17.13 compare to Midas 128.07. The profit margin of Ezion is increaing but Midas decreasing, the Ezion revenue is increasing, but midas seems like stinking. That is just a general comparison.

The recent contract previously in this tread counter, I have already calculate base on per car price, the five contract awarded the pricing is much lesser then the previous order, thus it is most likely a lossing money contract. The recent one is only and average pricing, but the risk involve is long duration, and you can't predict the aluminium pricing in fews year times will it sky rocket, and hedging over long period will cost alots, my feeling is the contract will also end up lossing money. And current order book is less then the last year revenue, and some order actually realise in few years times. Thus the revenue will be decreasing if by middle of this year, you can't see they order book reaching at least 2 x their last year revenue. As the aluminium fabrication process involve the purchase of raw material, design of extrusion die, fabrication of die, extrusion of profile, and machining of the profile. After all this done, packaging delivery, invoice and transfer of payment etc. all takes time. Any order after middle of this year will most likely can be relise in 2014.

Actually you can see from the stock chart very obvious, the stock is being distributing by some institute as the money are flowing out the counter, much more then entering. Refer to below chart.



And if you observe carefully after I release the warning of the counter, seems like the institute player start to block the counter, by setting large volume at 0.52 to distribute and 0.51 to support, as individual when see this large volume of support will feel comfortable and will have no intension for selling. (that is why I believe the market in short term is more an emotional market), and the institute player are unconfortable for the counter to run, as some people are aware of the counter are over value, thus if the price go up to high, people will start to sell off and they will not be able to distribute. Thus they block the price at 0.52, and those that are attract to the new contract will enter to take over the institute shares to facilitates their distribution. As individual will not have the time and leasure to visit every forum to check any information that they are unaware of my post as currently I only post on Sharejunction. But institute player, as their full time is for trading thus any forum tread release they will be aware, and I believe they will also read my tread. They will continue to distribute, until they have distribute all their shares and let the share to survive on their own (usually will experience drastic drop), or they will try to push up after some times when people forget about the warning as they have much more to distribute. They might loss they patient and force up, thus if the price goes up significantly then individual need to run faster then institute as they intend to end the musical chair preadvance.

I suffer huge lost in the beginning few years of my stock investing life, that is why I don't really trust the research report. But there are genuie one, and it require self-thinking and analysis to identify, thus if there is an intension to become an investor, then ones need to take full responsibility of ones action.

shareflux      ( Date: 22-Mar-2013 08:13) Posted:

Mr Cheong, thanks for the analysis and you have certainly open our eyes to the risk involved in this counter.

Just a market observation between Midas and Ezion over the last few trading days. Both counters had announced contract win this week. Ezion runs and Midas stuck in first gear. Does the market trying to tell us something?
Anyway, investing a company in manufacturing with PE>100 require faith, albeit a blind one. Market has shown its decision on Midas contract win, who are we to tell that the market is wrong.

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cheongsl
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23-Mar-2013 06:54     
 
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Hi dakota037,

My theory and your theory is different, my idea is the stock  market is inefficient and illogical market for short terms. In long terms it will slowly realise its value. In short terms, it is more a emotion market, then a financial market.

I don't distinguish between gambling and investing, to me both are the same,  both are probability calculation,  both putting somtheing  to expect the  some gaining,  risky in some sense but essential. Everyone gambles in their life unknowingly, some forms or another. Eg. Election, ones' are betting on the leader will provide better living standard for them. Chosing to be employee/employer, betting of their future, Choosing of the course, betting their future, etc.

For every action that is done it involve certain risk, thus it is essential to have calculative risk in control to minimise the loss.

I believe there are all different types of thoughts that different people held, that is why people are indifferent.

dakota037      ( Date: 23-Mar-2013 00:59) Posted:

Hmm.. I agree that it is good for general guidance. Like a quick glance at the current state of the company it is in. But then again, all the ratios that you mention are the accounting reality of the company, meaning past earnings, current assets, debts, equity etc and as mentioned by shareflux, it is already priced in the market price. Market adjust to new information almost immediately because markets are efficient, institutional buyers making their calculations and taking actions once announcements are released. So what can we do? My take is to figure out the intrinsic value as the present value of future expected performance. Which requires a lot of forecasting and homework such as figuring out the discount rates and free cash flows. And that makes a lot of distinction between gambling and investing (: 

cheongsl      ( Date: 22-Mar-2013 07:33) Posted:

I don't look for sofisticate calculation, I usually look at Net Asset Value per share, PE ratio, for reits I look at divident return, for distributor I look at inventory vs sales, etc. all are just for general guidance
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dakota037
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23-Mar-2013 01:08     
 
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Probably the recent contract wins are not substantial enough to lift Midas earnings. PE> 100 indicating that there are a lot of expectations on future contract wins. But sigh.. the contract wins are trickling in a bit too slowly.

While I like this counter, I've exited it a few weeks back on a backdrop of  under performance  of the Chinese economy and the recent increasing systemic risk from Eurozone.

shareflux      ( Date: 22-Mar-2013 08:13) Posted:

Mr Cheong, thanks for the analysis and you have certainly open our eyes to the risk involved in this counter.

Just a market observation between Midas and Ezion over the last few trading days. Both counters had announced contract win this week. Ezion runs and Midas stuck in first gear. Does the market trying to tell us something?
Anyway, investing a company in manufacturing with PE>100 require faith, albeit a blind one. Market has shown its decision on Midas contract win, who are we to tell that the market is wrong.

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dakota037
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23-Mar-2013 00:59     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Hmm.. I agree that it is good for general guidance. Like a quick glance at the current state of the company it is in. But then again, all the ratios that you mention are the accounting reality of the company, meaning past earnings, current assets, debts, equity etc and as mentioned by shareflux, it is already priced in the market price. Market adjust to new information almost immediately because markets are efficient, institutional buyers making their calculations and taking actions once announcements are released. So what can we do? My take is to figure out the intrinsic value as the present value of future expected performance. Which requires a lot of forecasting and homework such as figuring out the discount rates and free cash flows. And that makes a lot of distinction between gambling and investing (: 

cheongsl      ( Date: 22-Mar-2013 07:33) Posted:

I don't look for sofisticate calculation, I usually look at Net Asset Value per share, PE ratio, for reits I look at divident return, for distributor I look at inventory vs sales, etc. all are just for general guidance.

dakota037      ( Date: 21-Mar-2013 22:36) Posted:

Hi cheongsl, thank you for your detailed analysis (: Is it possible for you to figure out the intrinsic share price value of Midas with all the information that you got? Maybe you can find out the NPV of all future free cash flows, discounted by CAPM or Fama French model
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iPunter
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22-Mar-2013 08:22     
 
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Yes sifu is right too... But my very strong view is that anyone who calls others to buy or sell is wrong.

No matter how profoundly one has studied any company, there is no justification to urge others to buy or sell. One can present one's profound study to be read. But to call others to buy or sell is taboo.


akchua      ( Date: 21-Mar-2013 23:11) Posted:



Hi Lifeis great,

Nothing wrong with cheongsl voicing his view with calculation in this forum. I think he is doing a good job, helping people like me to have a deeper understanding in Midas before investing in it. What we dont want to see is someone shouting " buy" or " sell" without any calculation or news to support their view. Peace.
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shareflux
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22-Mar-2013 08:13     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Mr Cheong, thanks for the analysis and you have certainly open our eyes to the risk involved in this counter.

Just a market observation between Midas and Ezion over the last few trading days. Both counters had announced contract win this week. Ezion runs and Midas stuck in first gear. Does the market trying to tell us something?
Anyway, investing a company in manufacturing with PE>100 require faith, albeit a blind one. Market has shown its decision on Midas contract win, who are we to tell that the market is wrong.
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cheongsl
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22-Mar-2013 07:33     
 
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 Alert Admin 		I don't look for sofisticate calculation, I usually look at Net Asset Value per share, PE ratio, for reits I look at divident return, for distributor I look at inventory vs sales, etc. all are just for general guidance.

dakota037      ( Date: 21-Mar-2013 22:36) Posted:

Hi cheongsl, thank you for your detailed analysis (: Is it possible for you to figure out the intrinsic share price value of Midas with all the information that you got? Maybe you can find out the NPV of all future free cash flows, discounted by CAPM or Fama French model.

cheongsl      ( Date: 21-Mar-2013 21:57) Posted:



Thanks I was actually searching for the order book information and can't find in their financial statement. If the research report is true then my assumption that the performance is getting worst  might come  true, as the total order book currently which is only 700m not even reaching the total revenue of 2012 and some contract are also not realise by 2013, thus the revenue will be even be lesser then current order book, if there is no new major contract most likely 2013 will be negative earning.

  31/12/12 31/12/11 31/12/10 31/12/09 31/12/08 31/12/07 31/12/06
CNY(m) CNY(m) CNY(m) CNY(m) CNY(m) CNY(m) CNY(m)
Total Revenue 869.51 1,080.74 1,052.41 762.2 701.96 713.44 532.36
Net Income 25.613 187.36 246.02 190.77 166.05 162.17 129.92
Diluted Normalized EPS RMB 0.02 0.15 0.24 0.22 0.18 0.19 0.16
Profit Margin 2.95% 17.34% 23.38% 25.03% 23.66% 22.73% 24.40%


 
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akchua
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21-Mar-2013 23:11     
 
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Hi Lifeis great,

Nothing wrong with cheongsl voicing his view with calculation in this forum. I think he is doing a good job, helping people like me to have a deeper understanding in Midas before investing in it. What we dont want to see is someone shouting " buy" or " sell" without any calculation or news to support their view. Peace.
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Lifeisgreat
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21-Mar-2013 22:46     
 
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 Alert Admin 		cheongsl, since you are so keen to audit and challenge every single number in these reports by making your own assumptions, suggest you go straight to the house writers or even the management of company to clarify all the doubts you have in mind before making your final call of investing in this counter.    
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dakota037
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21-Mar-2013 22:36     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Hi cheongsl, thank you for your detailed analysis (: Is it possible for you to figure out the intrinsic share price value of Midas with all the information that you got? Maybe you can find out the NPV of all future free cash flows, discounted by CAPM or Fama French model.

cheongsl      ( Date: 21-Mar-2013 21:57) Posted:



Thanks I was actually searching for the order book information and can't find in their financial statement. If the research report is true then my assumption that the performance is getting worst  might come  true, as the total order book currently which is only 700m not even reaching the total revenue of 2012 and some contract are also not realise by 2013, thus the revenue will be even be lesser then current order book, if there is no new major contract most likely 2013 will be negative earning.

  31/12/12 31/12/11 31/12/10 31/12/09 31/12/08 31/12/07 31/12/06
CNY(m) CNY(m) CNY(m) CNY(m) CNY(m) CNY(m) CNY(m)
Total Revenue 869.51 1,080.74 1,052.41 762.2 701.96 713.44 532.36
Net Income 25.613 187.36 246.02 190.77 166.05 162.17 129.92
Diluted Normalized EPS RMB 0.02 0.15 0.24 0.22 0.18 0.19 0.16
Profit Margin 2.95% 17.34% 23.38% 25.03% 23.66% 22.73% 24.40%


 

Lifeisgreat      ( Date: 21-Mar-2013 13:55) Posted:

DBS VICKERS Securities says...
MIDAS HOLDINGS | BUY | TP: S$0.60
Midas announced that it has won a €22.7m (approximately Rmb182.8m) contract from Ural Locomotives Limited Liability Company (" Ural Locomotives" ), a joint-venture company between Siemens AG and Russia's Sinara Group  Midas will supply aluminium alloy extrusion profiles for use in the manufacture of 100 electric train sets (1 train set = 5 train cars), or 500 electric train cars for commuter passenger service.  This is a fairly significant win for Midas in the export market, which shows their capability to win contracts outside of China.As deliveries are spread over 7 years from 2013 to 2019, the annual contribution of this contract to the top line is relatively small at c. Rmb25m but nonetheless grows the group's order book to c. Rmb700m, compared to just Rmb400m at the end of Feb.  This is the second significant supply con tract won this month, with the first being a c. Rmb110m contract to supply for 5 metro train projects in China.
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cheongsl
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21-Mar-2013 21:57     
 
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Thanks I was actually searching for the order book information and can't find in their financial statement. If the research report is true then my assumption that the performance is getting worst  might come  true, as the total order book currently which is only 700m not even reaching the total revenue of 2012 and some contract are also not realise by 2013, thus the revenue will be even be lesser then current order book, if there is no new major contract most likely 2013 will be negative earning.

  31/12/12 31/12/11 31/12/10 31/12/09 31/12/08 31/12/07 31/12/06
CNY(m) CNY(m) CNY(m) CNY(m) CNY(m) CNY(m) CNY(m)
Total Revenue 869.51 1,080.74 1,052.41 762.2 701.96 713.44 532.36
Net Income 25.613 187.36 246.02 190.77 166.05 162.17 129.92
Diluted Normalized EPS RMB 0.02 0.15 0.24 0.22 0.18 0.19 0.16
Profit Margin 2.95% 17.34% 23.38% 25.03% 23.66% 22.73% 24.40%


 

Lifeisgreat      ( Date: 21-Mar-2013 13:55) Posted:

DBS VICKERS Securities says...
MIDAS HOLDINGS | BUY | TP: S$0.60
Midas announced that it has won a €22.7m (approximately Rmb182.8m) contract from Ural Locomotives Limited Liability Company (" Ural Locomotives" ), a joint-venture company between Siemens AG and Russia's Sinara Group  Midas will supply aluminium alloy extrusion profiles for use in the manufacture of 100 electric train sets (1 train set = 5 train cars), or 500 electric train cars for commuter passenger service.  This is a fairly significant win for Midas in the export market, which shows their capability to win contracts outside of China.As deliveries are spread over 7 years from 2013 to 2019, the annual contribution of this contract to the top line is relatively small at c. Rmb25m but nonetheless grows the group's order book to c. Rmb700m, compared to just Rmb400m at the end of Feb.  This is the second significant supply con tract won this month, with the first being a c. Rmb110m contract to supply for 5 metro train projects in China.
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Lifeisgreat
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21-Mar-2013 13:55     
 
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 Alert Admin 		DBS VICKERS Securities says...
MIDAS HOLDINGS | BUY | TP: S$0.60
Midas announced that it has won a €22.7m (approximately Rmb182.8m) contract from Ural Locomotives Limited Liability Company (" Ural Locomotives" ), a joint-venture company between Siemens AG and Russia's Sinara Group  Midas will supply aluminium alloy extrusion profiles for use in the manufacture of 100 electric train sets (1 train set = 5 train cars), or 500 electric train cars for commuter passenger service.  This is a fairly significant win for Midas in the export market, which shows their capability to win contracts outside of China.As deliveries are spread over 7 years from 2013 to 2019, the annual contribution of this contract to the top line is relatively small at c. Rmb25m but nonetheless grows the group's order book to c. Rmb700m, compared to just Rmb400m at the end of Feb.  This is the second significant supply con tract won this month, with the first being a c. Rmb110m contract to supply for 5 metro train projects in China.
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wesely2k
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21-Mar-2013 09:33     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Ko Buay Cheong........Kun Ah!
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cheongsl
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20-Mar-2013 20:46     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Calculation is just a form of analysis, I don't consider my calculation precision as it is estimation. Calculation provide guidance for investment. It is not necessary that it will ensure that the market will follow your analysis, but it prevents people from getting  over enthusiastic for  something that is already  over heated. It is just a matter of time when the musical chair will stops, and those on the chair will result in many times loses, as the share price have escalated so many times above its true value. 

Lifeisgreat      ( Date: 20-Mar-2013 13:59) Posted:

aiyo...many professional ppl are preoccupied with being right. engineers like yourself believe that everything can be calculated with precision. trading/investing in stocks involves a lot more than precision la... many professionals lose money in the markets! why? certainly not for lack of intelligence, but for lack of humility and flexibility. 

cheongsl      ( Date: 19-Mar-2013 21:20) Posted:



This should be a neutral news.

Reason being:

1) The 22.7Euro (182.8million RMB), for 500 car,  translated to per car is 365k per car. Russian Ural locomotive car length is ~34m, but China metro car length is ~22.5m, thus equivalent pricing should be 241k per car, which is around their average pricing for China metro project supply.

2) For this contract there stand two different risk due to long period of contract delivery till 2019, thus the aluminium prices and Euro vs RMB are two major risk for this contract. Euro currency compare to RMB for the last five years have been declining, and currently the Euro crisis still have not over. Thus chances of RMB getting stronger against Euro will continue.
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Lifeisgreat
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20-Mar-2013 13:59     
 
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 Alert Admin 		aiyo...many professional ppl are preoccupied with being right. engineers like yourself believe that everything can be calculated with precision. trading/investing in stocks involves a lot more than precision la... many professionals lose money in the markets! why? certainly not for lack of intelligence, but for lack of humility and flexibility. 

cheongsl      ( Date: 19-Mar-2013 21:20) Posted:



This should be a neutral news.

Reason being:

1) The 22.7Euro (182.8million RMB), for 500 car,  translated to per car is 365k per car. Russian Ural locomotive car length is ~34m, but China metro car length is ~22.5m, thus equivalent pricing should be 241k per car, which is around their average pricing for China metro project supply.

2) For this contract there stand two different risk due to long period of contract delivery till 2019, thus the aluminium prices and Euro vs RMB are two major risk for this contract. Euro currency compare to RMB for the last five years have been declining, and currently the Euro crisis still have not over. Thus chances of RMB getting stronger against Euro will continue.

NICHOLASCHUA      ( Date: 19-Mar-2013 17:47) Posted:

NEWS RELEASE
MIDAS WINS €22.7 MILLION RUSSIAN CONTRACT
- For the supply of aluminium alloy extrusion profiles to the Russian railway market
Singapore & Hong Kong, March 19, 2013 - Midas Holdings Limited (麥 達 斯 控 股 有 限 公 司 ) (“Midas” or the “Company”, together with its subsidiaries, the “Group” SGX-
ST stock code: 5EN SEHK stock code: 1021) is pleased to announce that its subsidiary, Jilin Midas Aluminium Industries Co., Ltd (“Jilin Midas”) has won a €22.7 million (approximately RMB182.8 million1) contract from Ural Locomotives Limited Liability Company (“Ural Locomotives”), a joint-venture company between Siemens AG and Russia’s Sinara Group.
Mr Patrick Chew (周 華 光 ), Chief Executive Officer of Midas, said, “This contract from Ural Locomotives is significant as it is our first international contract this year and an
affirmation that our diversification strategy and efforts in growing our international markets are bearing results. Our success in securing this export order is a further testimony of the international recognition of Jilin Midas’ technical capabilities and quality output. This positions the Group well to grow its orders from both international and PRC markets.”
Under the terms of the contract, Midas will supply aluminium alloy extrusion profiles for use in the manufacture of 100 electric train sets (1 train set = 5 train cars), or 500 electric train cars for commuter passenger service. Delivery for the contract is slated to take place progressively from 2013 to 2019. This contract is expected to contribute positively to the Group’s financial performance for the financial years ending 2013 to 2019.
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SJ-Stomp
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20-Mar-2013 11:52     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Then ung ung jia bee hoon!:))

Lifeisgreat      ( Date: 20-Mar-2013 11:46) Posted:

patience is a virtue! :)
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Lifeisgreat
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20-Mar-2013 11:46     
 
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 Alert Admin 		patience is a virtue! :)
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GorgeousOng
Elite
20-Mar-2013 11:36     
 
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Yells: "Hehehaha...enjoy life n live to the fullest..."
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 Alert Admin 		If anyone losing patient for this baby, you may let go....but ...you may make some kopi money though...:))
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Octavia
Elite
20-Mar-2013 11:13     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Can average out all their TPs for a guidance.

Peter_Pan      ( Date: 20-Mar-2013 11:01) Posted:

It is now UOBKH's call vs. OCBCS & DBSV's calls.....

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