Gold Trades to 2012 High and Reverses

Daily Candles

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

After trading to a new high for 2012, gold reversed to close over $15 off of its high. Despite the action, trading from the short side is dangerous. The 1740 area was identified as a high risk area for bulls and that level was not only overcome, but also held as support on 9/26. The next high risk area isn’t until 1856/75. 1753 is now support.

LEVELS: 1736.05 1750.90 1763.25 1791.49 1802.80 1819.05

NEW YORK (Commodity Online):  Global gold prices may remain bullish this week and try to move to the $1,800-an-ounce level as momentum helps to propel prices up.

Global gold prices were down last week and advanced by 5.1% on the month. The most-active December gold contract settled at $1,773.90 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Trade volume in markets may be lighter than usual as China celebrates holidays this week.

“Gold will rise this week and it has become the new Apple for investors, look for this market to move over $2,000 by the end of the year,” said Adam Hewison, president and chief strategist with INO and MarketClub.com.

Several market watchers pointed out last week that gold priced in euros set a new record high last week, and given the current environment for gold, prices may rise further.

According to Commerzbank, the Second largest German bank, the debt crisis in the eurozone has escalated again, for example, as evidenced among other things by what are in some cases violent public protests against the new austerity packages in Spain and Greece.

Spencer Patton, chief financial officer and founder of Steel Vine Investments, said that: “Gold prices are holding above the $1,770-an-ounce level a level that technical-chart analysts say offers some near-term support.” He is bullish on gold and sees the market making a new leg higher.

“Supported by monetary easing by the Federal Reserve and bond-buying by the European Central Bank, in addition to soothing words out of China’s central bank, gold has risen since mid-August and gold’s gained even as equities have wobbled, which for the time being is a good sign for the yellow metal,” he added.

Global gold posted its biggest quarterly gain in more than two years as market stimulus and easy monetary policies by central banks around the world boosted bullion's inflation-hedge appeal.

The metal is within reach of its 2012 high, while open interest for US gold futures surged to a one-year high on heavy buying related to fund positioning before the quarter end.

Last Updated : 01 October 2012 at 21:25 IST

 

Gold ETPs post net inflows of nearly 60Mt in September: Barclays

 

Source :Commodity Online

 

The total metal in trust stands at 2,550 tons, easing from record highs last week but still elevated. This follows a strong August that had inflows of 66 tons.

LONDON (Commodity Online):  Preliminary estimates show a net inflow of almost 60 metric tons of gold into exchange-traded products (ETPs) during September, said Barclays Capital in a commodity research note.

According to the British bank, the total metal in trust stands at 2,550 tons, easing from record highs last week but still elevated. This follows a strong August that had inflows of 66 tons.

For the just-ended third quarter, inflows were 109 tons, making it the strongest quarter since 277 tons in the second quarter of 2010.

“On a regional basis, the bulk of the fresh interest this year has stemmed from Europe, but the inflows over the past couple of months have been primarily boosted by U.S.-listed products,” Barclays concluded. 

Last Updated : 30 September 2012 at 23:00 IST

What 9 data releases mean for Gold prices

Source :Forexpros

  Besides there are important announcements expected from Bank of Japan and Reserve Bank of Australia, in addition to various data outputs from India and other nations like Brazil as well as Great Britain interspersing the week.

Commodity Online
Data can make or mar bulls and bears. Here is a look at 9 important data release points and their implications for gold investors around the globe.

MONDAY (Oct 1, 2012) 20.30 IST: ISM Manufacturing Index

Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) published by Institute of Supply Management or ISM is a widely awaited figure by investors, economists and policy makers as it beams light into the state of the US economy in terms of employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories.

This time around, the figure is forecast to touch 49.7 while earlier on September 4, the figure stood at 49.6. A figure below 50 is indicative of contraction in the industry and draws from a survey based approximately on 400 purchasing managers in the manufacturing segment.

A higher than expected reading would be bullish for USD and therefore bearish for bullion.

MONDAY (Oct 1, 2012) 23.00 IST: Speech by US Federal Reserve Chairman 

This time around, Ben Bernanke is expected to address the QE skeptics and may stress on two things: the QE 3 measure—the third round of Quantitative Easing wherein the Federal Reserve would buy mortgage-backed securities to the tune of $40bn a month until the labour markets recover —has the potential to work well and can be managed well. He will speak on ‘Five questions about Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy’.

As per sources, Federal Reserve may purchase treasuries to the tune of $45 billion a month as and when the Operation Twist comes to an end.

His comments may give further cues to the bullion market.

WEDNESDAY (Oct 3, 2012) 18.45 IST: ADP Nonfarm employment change

Report by Automatic Data Processing (ADP) on national employment measures changes in US non-farm, private employment, based on the payroll data of approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients on a monthly basis.

The private sector report is a good indication and is followed by the government’s report that sets the stage for market movements.

A positive report is bullish for the USD and thereby bearish for bullion. This time around the report may indicate 150K of additional jobs even as the past reports showed 201K on September 6.

THURSDAY (Oct 4, 2012) 18.15 IST: ECB interest rate decision

The six member ECB or European Central Bank Executive Board and governors of 16 euro zone central banks would vote on where to set the interest rates. These short-term interest rates deeply influence currency valuations. This time around the ECB is forecast to set 0.75% in rates which previously was unchanged at 0.75% on September 6, 2012.

A higher than expected rate is expected to strengthen Euro and weaken Dollar, thereby proving bullish for bullion.

THURSDAY (Oct 4, 2012) 19.00 IST: Initial jobless claims

The data is indicative of the number of applicants who filed for unemployment insurance in US. Released by the US Department of Labour, the data, if higher than expected, is bearish for USD and bullish for bullion.

The forecast is pegged at 371K, lower than 359K issued on September 27.

THURSDAY (Oct 4, 2012) 19.00 IST: ECB press conference

The ECB interest rate vote and minimum bid rate announcement is followed by the hour long ECB press meet. The statement that is read by the ECB officials is the initial item on the list and then followed by press conference. The meet focuses on the factors that affect ECB interest rate, economic outlook and inflation the markets swing back and forth depending on ECB officials’ answers to questions by journalists.

FRIDAY (Oct 5, 2012) 00.30 IST: FOMC meeting minutes

Minutes from the FOMC meeting held a fortnight back to the date offer insights into the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve and is read in detail to gleam information on interest rates. Currently the Fed is deemed not to revise the rates until 2015.

FRIDAY (Oct 5, 2012) 19.00 IST: Unemployment rate

The data brings out the unemployment rate in the US job markets. It is a percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment in September. Forecasted at 8.2%, the data may be bearish for USD and bullish for bullion if the rate climbs above the percentage figure. For September 7, the figure stood at 8.1%.

FRIDAY (Oct 5, 2012) 19.00 IST: Non-farm pay rolls

The figure brings out the number of people employed during the previous month ie in September in US. Positive nonfarm pay roll figures mean a positive USD and negative prospects for gold. Currently the figures are forecast to bet at 110K and on September 7, it was at 96K.

Besides there are important announcements expected from Bank of Japan and Reserve Bank of Australia, in addition to various data outputs from India and other nations like Brazil as well as Great Britain. 

 

Last Updated : 30 September 2012 at 12:15 IST

 

After Barclays, more banks may open bullion vaults in London

 

Source :Commodity Online

Gold prices rose to near 2012 high at $1787 an ounce on September 21 as weak US GDP data and QE3 measures earlier stoked inflationary fears leading investors to take bullish bets on gold.

 

Gold Registers Highest Close Since February

Daily Bars

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Gold’s recent decline was nearly entirely retraced today. In fact, the yellow metal registered its highest daily close since the end of February. The advance is no doubt quite mature but the 3 wave decline from 1787.35 suggests that higher prices are in order. Levels of interest in the coming days as gold attempts to extend from the 61.8% of the decline from the record high are from 1790 to 1820.

LEVELS: 1752.91 1761.26 1772.10 1790.55 1807.19 1819.05

LONDON(Commodity Online):  Gold rebounds sharply on negativce US data. It has climbed around $15 to $1768.5/oz. Silver has climbed close to  0.5% at $34.34.  The US second quarter final GDP is stuck at 1.3% compared to 1.7% previous data. Meanwhile, August durable goods orders dipped 13.2% compared to 5.0% expected.

" Comex Gold December is trading above 200 day moving average at $1741.90 and could creep higher targetting 1780 in the short term" , according to Sreekumar Raghavan Chief Commodity Strategist at Commodity Online.

" Support levels are $1750, 1745 while resistance is seen at $1770, $1780." he added. The markets are awaiting pending home sales data for further direction. 

At India's Multi Commodity Exchange, Gold futures for October delivery is trading 0.38% lower at Rs 31190 per 10 gms. Support 31165, 31150, resistance 31240, 31250.

India gold futures weakened on sharp gains in Rupee which rose to four and half months high on Thursday. Indian Rupee traded at Rs 52.99, the highest level since May 10 and closed at 53.

India gold imports are likely to fall by 26% or near 250 tons as higher prices have impacted buying. In Mumbai bullion market prices fel from Rs 31670 to Rs 31425 per 10 gm while silver prices rose from Rs 63580 to Rs 63624 per kg.

Last Updated : 26 September 2012 at 23:55 IST

‘Gold slides on profit taking as Euro weakens’

Source :Commodity Online

Generally, it's profit-taking. Gold had a " good run-up" since the Federal Open Market Committee's announcement of more quantitative easing earlier this month. 

NEW YORK (Commodity Online):  Much of the selling in gold has come in the form of profit-taking, with a softer euro the catalyst, says Robin Bhar, metals analyst at Societe Generale.

The Comex December gold contract was down $24 to $1,742.40 an ounce as of 11:05 a.m. EDT, while December silver was down 37.8 cents to $33.57.

" Generally, it's profit-taking. Gold had a " good run-up" since the Federal Open Market Committee's announcement of more quantitative easing earlier this month,” he says.

Now, eurozone issues have resurfaced, with expectations for Spanish austerity measures provoking protests, as has happened in Greece. " As a result, the euro is taking a bit of a hit," Bhar says.

" There is some profit-taking on long euro positions we saw since the ECB announced their plan to buy sovereign debt again." And with the euro under pressure, some traders are booking profits on gold, he continues.

The decline began Tuesday night when Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser expressed doubt that further Fed asset purchases would result in much economic growth, Bhar concludes. 

 

Gold Breaks Range Only to Snap Back

Daily Bars

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

“The decline from the high in gold is impulsive (5 waves) but that decline could just as well complete a flat. As such, it is best to refrain from the short side until a drop below last week’s low (1752). A drop below would shift to 1715 and probably quickly given the crowded nature of this market.” Today’s action is indicative of a market that was too crowded as those late to the game got stopped out only to see the market snap back and close at the former lows. A test of 1715/25 can’t be ruled out as long as price is below 1775 (spot prices) but Wednesday’s intraday action is more suggestive of consolidation before upside continuation.

LEVELS: 1687 1715 1735 1755 1765 1775

Last Updated : 26 September 2012 at 18:15 IST

US Gold futures witness slump as dollar gains strength

Source :Commodity Online

In recent week, gold had ralled on stimulus measures announced by US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and in Japan to boost economic growth which was interpreted as inflationary and hence positive for precious metals

NEW YORK (Commodity Online): US Gold futures witnessed a sharp fall of close to$20 per ounce to $1747 as strength in dollar and weakness in Euro eroded the safe haven appeal of gold.

Comex Gold for December delivery traded at $1749 and ounce falling $17.4 compared to previous close. Nearterm support for gold remains at $1740, $1730 while resistance is seen at $1755, 1760, according to Sreekumar Raghavan, Chief Commodity Strategist at Commodity Online.

In recent week, gold had ralled on stimulus measures announced by US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and in Japan to boost economic growth which was interpreted as inflationary and hence positive for precious metals.

Commodities and stocks in general have weakened in mid-week as concerns about Eurozone debt crisis, Spain's financial crisis and slowdown in emerging economies of Asia- China and India impacted market sentiments. The sharp fall in Euro against dollar has been cited as the significant reason for the fall in gold prices which is expected to continue in the short run.

Many investment banks and analysts continue to be bullish on gold despite the recent downfall in prices as stimulus measures and uncertainty in global economy continues to favour gold. 

US Silver futures for December delivery has fallen 0.34% to 433.60 an ounce, tracking gold and negative sentiments in metals complex. Immediate support   for US Silver futures is seen at $33, $32.50 while resistance is seen at   $34, $34.50, Sreekumar Raghavan added. 

Markets eagerly await the US new home sales data due to be released in a few hours while gasoline, crude oil inventories data will have some impact on the energy complex. 

US Home Mortgages
Applications for U.S. home mortgages rose last week as interest rates dropped to record lows in the wake of the Federal Reserve's latest stimulus efforts, data from an industry group showed on Wednesday. The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity, which includes both refinancing and home purchase demand, rose 2.8 percent in the week ended Sept 21.