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Dow Outlook
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
16-Jul-2013 11:07
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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• Prices of stock alternatives. It's hard to think stocks are expensive until investors can get better prices on other assets, such as bonds, says Doug Sandler of RiverFront Investment Group. When yields on the 10-year Treasury hit between 3.0% and 3.5%, some investors might consider shifting back to bonds, Sandler says. But that's not imminent, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury still at 2.56%. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
16-Jul-2013 11:04
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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• When earnings-based valuations get out of line. If companies in the S& P 500 earn $108 a share this year as expected, says Paul Mangus of Wells Fargo Private Bank, that gives the market a P-E of 15.6. But that P-E is far from excessive, Mangus says, pointing out the valuation is still well below 2007 levels. Investors were paying nearly 30 times forward earnings at the end of 2007, says S& P Dow Jones Indices. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
16-Jul-2013 11:01
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Market rally puts stock prices in questionInvestors watching the market's steady march higher can only start to wonder when stocks will finally get too expensive. The stock market's rise is pushing stocks to never-before-seen levels. The S& P 500 index rose another 2 points Monday to 1683, rising for eight straight days and notching all-time records on a daily basis. Investors have scored more than $13 trillion in wealth since the market bottomed on March 9, 2009, Wilshire Associates says. Yet, since much of the rally has been fueled by stocks rebounding from their deep-discounted prices in 2009, the natural question is when will stocks get too pricey. The rally " is making some investors nervous because they think it is too expensive," says Craig Johnson of Piper Jaffray. Investors and analysts, though, are looking for any signs to see if stocks get overvalued by considering: ...continue... |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
16-Jul-2013 10:02
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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How pros are trading ahead of Bernanke testimony ....Wall Street will turn its attention to Washington on Tuesday, as Ben Bernanke heads to Capitol Hill for his annual testimony on the economy. Though no one knows for sure what Bernanke will say on Capitol Hill, his comments will likely move the markets. They got a boost last week after Bernanke said monetary policy would remain accommodative for the near term, even if unemployment hits the Fed's target of 6.5%. " I personally think the data is going to be kind of disappointing," said Larry Lindsey, who served as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System from November 1991 to February 1997. " I am one who thinks the Fed is going to be tapering in September, as many do." To position ahead of Bernanke's comments, Dennis Gartman, founder and editor of The Gartman Letter, is long both equities and gold. " The trend in stock prices has been upward. It will continue to be upward. Nobody will like this answer, but it will continue to be upward until it stops," Gartman told CNBC's " Fast Money." " As long as the Fed continues to supply reserves and tapering continues to mean that they will supply reserves—although at a slightly slower pace—the trend [for gold] is probably going to still be from the lower left to the upper right," he said. To Karen Finerman of Metropolitan Capital, when the Fed will start tapering doesn't matter so much as that it's changing its policy at all. She is looking to get long a steepening yield curve for Treasurys by way of bank stocks, though she doesn't specify any bank stock in particular. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
16-Jul-2013 08:56
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Prepare for the next crash right now ....... And the point of all this is of course to prompt you and I to take action and actually follow through on the trimming and selling again while we’re at these euphoric new highs and while rates are in an up trend. Don’t panic, don’t sell it all. Just take profits and keep raising cash while the stocks are up and then you’ll be ready and flexible for the next move, whether the markets are higher or lower from here this time next year. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
16-Jul-2013 08:37
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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DJ: U.S. Stocks Notch Another Record ....
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
15-Jul-2013 22:10
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Merrill Lynch raises 2013 S& P 500 target to 1,750 ....NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch boosted their 2013 target for the S& P 500 Index to 1,750 on Monday from a previous target of 1,600, penciling in " modest upside from current levels, attributing to expected earnings growth." BofA Merrill's previous target had stood at 1,600--a level initially surpassed in May. The index posted a record close at 1,680.19 on Friday. " While the decline in the equity risk premium (ERP) has been more than twice what we expected, we think it is justified by diminished tail risks, positive surprises in the U.S. economy, and, as expected, a continued decline in earnings volatility. Thus, our new target is largely driven by our Fair Value model, where we lowered our year-end ERP forecast from 600 [basis points] to 475 [basis points], partially offset by a 50 [basis point] increase to the normalized real risk-free rate," the strategists wrote. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
15-Jul-2013 17:07
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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European stocks climb after China GDP dataLONDON (MarketWatch) ? European stock markets climbed on Monday, with banks and resource firms in the lead, after growth data from China met analysts? expectations and fueled investor optimism. ...more... |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
15-Jul-2013 16:11
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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...probability of new record high this week is high .... 
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
14-Jul-2013 14:14
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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After the Fed, Here Is Who Can Save the Markets ....The Bank of Japan's hefty monetary stimulus should compensate for any unwinding of the U.S. Federal Reserve's ultra-easy monetary policy, lending some support to markets, analysts tell CNBC. ... Menon added, " As long as the tapering happens on the back of stronger economic growth [in the U.S.] then eventually markets will take its focus away from tapering and go back to fundamentals." |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
13-Jul-2013 08:54
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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U.S. stocks rise to record-closing highs ....
Nasdaq Composite’s win streak longest since July 2011NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S. stocks on Friday recorded a third week of gains, with the Dow industrials and the S& P 500 tallying record closes following upbeat earnings from two major banks. “There’s plenty of action in individual names,” emailed Elliot Spar, market strategist at Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., while noting the S& P 500’s 8-point range during Friday’s session. That said, “a couple of stock-specific issues are not going to derail the bulls as the buyers still have momentum at their backs. However, if the stock-specific issues start to add up with respect to earnings shortfalls or pre-announcements, then that would be enough ‘cover’ for people to take money off the table,” Spar added. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 3.38 points to 15,464.30, an all-time closing high that had it up 2.2% from the week-ago close. Up 3% for the week and also finishing at a record, the S& P 500 added 5.17 points, or 0.3%, to 1,680.19, with financials pacing its gains. Up for a seventh session in its longest winning stretch since July 2011, the Nasdaq Composite gained 21.78 points, or 0.6%, to 3,600.08, giving it a weekly rise of 3.5%. Advancers just outpaced decliners on the New York Stock Exchange, where 681 million shares traded. Composite volume approached 3.1 billion. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
12-Jul-2013 08:12
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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U.S. Stocks Surge Into Record Terrain ....NEW YORK (Dow Jones) Signals that the Federal Reserve will keep its easy-money policies in place for the long haul energized investors across the globe and sent U.S. stock indexes soaring to all-time highs. The spark came from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, who said late Wednesday that the economy still needs " highly accommodative monetary policy for the foreseeable future." U.S. stock futures bolted higher after Wednesday's closing bell, triggering overnight advances in Asia and Europe and ultimately big gains on Wall Street Thursday. Mr. Bernanke's comments also prompted a selloff in the dollar, a decline in Treasury yields and a rise in gold prices. Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Standard & Poor's 500-stock index closed at records. The blue chips chionged 169.26 points, or 1.1%, to 15460.92. The S& P 500 shot up 22.40 points, or 1.4%, to 1675.02. All 10 of the S& P 500's sectors rose, led by materials and technology stocks. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 57.55 points, or 1.6%, to 3578.30, gaining ground for the 11th time in 12 sessions. " The market is no longer worried about [the Fed] taking the punch bowl away," said Craig Gentry, chief investment strategist at Destination Wealth Management, which oversees $1.3 billion. " What we've come to expect from the Fedis still intact for the foreseeable future." |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
11-Jul-2013 22:50
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Stocks back at record highs ....U.S. stocks opened in record territory Thursday, bouncing back from the previous day's pullback as investors welcomed comments from Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke. The S& P 500 rose more than 1%, also topping its record closing high. The Nasdaq jumped 1.1%,. European markets also gained around 1% in midday trading, and major Asian marketsended with big gains. The global rise in equities is being attributed to comments late Wednesday by Bernanke, who said monetary policy would remain " highly accommodative" for the foreseeable future. Recent moves and comments by global central banks have helped boost equities as they continue to pump more money into the system in a bid to get the economy growing. Investors clearly viewed Bernanke's comments as good news for the markets. David Jones, chief market strategist at IG Markets in London, said the comments were not " fantastically bullish," but it may have been the lack of bad news that truly motivated the rally. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
11-Jul-2013 12:02
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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...Dow on the way to record high ...July...?....
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
11-Jul-2013 09:15
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Fed pull back? Wall Street doesn't caveStocks closed mixed Wednesday after briefly surging when the minutes of the Federal Reserve policy meeting of June 18-19 were released at 2 p.m. ET. The yield on the bellwether 10-year Treasury jumped to 2.68% from 2.62% Tuesday, suggesting bond investors weren't too pleased with what the Fed had to say about its most recent policy-making session. The price of crude oil stayed above $106 a barrel spike it had breached earlier in the trading session. The Dow Jones industrial average swung from a 20-point decline to 25 points higher before retreating back to a 8-point drop to close at 15, 291.66. The broader S& P 500 index was flat after an initial pop and closed up 0.30 to 1,652.62. It remains slightly below its all-time closing high of 1,669.16, set on May 21. The tech-laden Nasdaq composite index rose 16.50, or 0.5%, to 3,520.76, adding onto gains Tuesday, when the index closed at the highest level since October 2000. The Russell 2,000 index of small cap stocks continued to trade at all-time highs above 1,020. Joe Deaux, an economist at TheStreet.com, said the minutes reiterated what Fed Chief Ben Bernanke said at his press conference after June's two-day meeting. .... |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
10-Jul-2013 09:44
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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IMF Flags Top Three Threats to Global Growth ....The IMF downgraded its global growth outlook for 2013 on Tuesday, and warned of three " new risks" that threaten to derail the global economic recovery. " The first one is China. China has a very delicate rebalancing to do between investment and consumption, and the risk is that investment declines before consumption can really recover," Blanchard said on Tuesday, following the release of the report. " This would lead to lower growth in China, even below the downward revision we have already done." The IMF revised its growth outlook for China down to 7.8% in 2013, and 7.7% in 2014. The second key threat was Japan's radical measures to boost its economy, or " Abenomics" , Blanchard said. " Abenomics is a very ambitious program — but it's a very risky one. And it seems to us that at least two of the arrows haven't quite been totally refined yet," Blanchard said. He added that fiscal stimulus without fiscal consolidation was " worrisome." Blanchard identified the scaling back of the Federal Reserve's asset-purchasing program as the third risk facing the global economy. " The third risk... is the risk from the exit from QE in the U.S," he said. " This can lead to a lot of volatility…. We think the volatility will calm down, but one cannot be sure." ... |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
10-Jul-2013 08:43
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Charting an increasingly bullish backdrop ....
CINCINNATI (MarketWatch) — The Technical Indicator starts its eleventh year this month.
The bigger picture... the July recovery attempt is intact. Each major U.S. benchmark has reached two-week highs, also reclaiming its 50-day moving average. And in the bigger picture, recent strength follows a successful test of genuinely major support. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
10-Jul-2013 08:35
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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U.S. stocks rise S& P 500 nears record ....
Early earnings optimism boosts the case for equitiesNEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S. stocks climbed on Tuesday, pushing the S& P 500 to within 1% of its all-time closing high, as Wall Street embraced an improving economy and higher interest rates. “The market is voting itself that things are improving, with interest rates going higher without taking the stock market down,” said JJ Kinahan, chief strategist with TD Ameritrade. The S& P 500 index added 11.86 points, or 0.7%, to 1,652.32, with materials pacing sector gains. “From a technical point of view we need to test 1,650 to go higher,” Kinahan added of the level last breached three weeks ago. The market can now make a run for the May 21 record close of 1,669.16, he added. The benchmark indexes ran up to three-week highs as Alcoa Inc. started off earnings season, with the aluminum manufacturer the first Dow member to report earnings for the second quarter. “Alcoa has become a little like the ceremonial first pitch of a baseball game we’re waiting for later this week for J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo & Co. to really start the game,” said Kinahan of the banking powerhouses slated to report at the end of the week. Comments from Alcoa’s CEO playing down worry about the impact of a Chinese slowdown on the company’s bottom line did cheer the market, Kinahan said. Extending a winning streak that has benchmark indexes up for a fourth session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 75.65 points, or 0.5%, to 15,300.34. The Nasdaq Composite rose 19.43 points, or 0.6%, to 3,504.26, lifting it above its May 21 close of 3,502.12, which was its highest finish since the year 2000. For every stock falling, roughly three gained on the New York Stock Exchange, where nearly 692 million shares traded. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
05-Jul-2013 08:12
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Fireworks start early as stock futures jumpKey nonfarm payroll data due to top off holiday shortened weekMADRID (MarketWatch) — Comments from European central bankers Thursday suggesting low rates will continue helped light a fuse under U.S. stock futures. ECB President Mario Draghi said low rates are not going away soon, and the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee also surprised with a statement alluding to that effect. Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 122 points, or 0.8%, to 15,038, while those for the S& P 500 index climbed 13.6 points, or 0.8%, to 1,622.60. Futures for the Nasdaq 100 index jumped 27 points, or 0.9%, to 2,964.50. “Transatlantic monetary policy divergence could not be any clearer,” said Kit Juckes, strategist at Société Générale, in a note to investors. “The Fed is at the start of a very long drawn-out process of normalization and the ECB and [Bank off England] are both still thinking about easing further and clearly discomforted by the recent back-up in rates.” U.S. markets are closed Thursday for the Independence Day holiday. Trading in U.S. futures was confined to European venues. Wall Street also had a shortened day of trading on Wednesday, in which markets closed higher. Nonfarm payroll data due Friday will command attention. A strong jobs report will likely be bad for markets, since it likely signals the economy is recovering faster and can withstand moves by the Fed to taper off its bond purchase program. A weak report is likely to boost equities, since it will signal the Fed can continue buying bonds. The U.S. economy is expected to have added 155,000 jobs in June, according to economists polled by MarketWatch. That’s less than the 175,000 gain seen in May. The report is due to hit the markets at 8:30 a.m. EDT Friday. .... |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
04-Jul-2013 08:51
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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U.S. stocks rise on upbeat jobs data .... SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — U.S. stocks closed higher Wednesday in advance of the Independence Day holiday, as positive jobs data countered international concerns in the abbreviated trading session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 56.14 points, or 0.4%, to close at 14,988.55, with shares of Boeing Co. and Cisco Systems Inc. leading the way. Earlier in the session, the Dow was down by as many as 73 points. The S& P 500 advanced 1.33 points, or less than 0.1%, to finish at 1,615.41, overcoming an earlier 9-point deficit, with tech and consumer discretionary stocks performing the best. The Nasdaq Composite finished up 10.27 points, or 0.3%, at 3,443.67, as Apple Inc. gained 0.6%. Earlier in the session, the Nasdaq had been down by as many as 15 points. |
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