| Latest Forum Topics / User Research/Opinions |
 Post Reply
|
|
Stocks To Buy Recommendation
|
|
|
ed88ks
Senior |
11-Feb-2007 22:15
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Simon, sorry to ask me hope you will review my counters too, you got a very interesting presentation, and very much indepth... hope you to hear from u soon ,tks |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
A&C2004
Member |
11-Feb-2007 21:46
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Hi Guru Simon, thank you for taking time to reply my request. Really appreciate your expertise advice!!! I do agree with you that i have spread my resources too thin by holding too many stocks.......Will unload one or two in order to have more fire power =) Thank you once again! |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
|
|
|
Simonloh
Member |
11-Feb-2007 02:15
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Dear Readers, Pls refer to below for my New Reply dated 11 Feb 07 at 0207 hrs ! Regards Simon Loh |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
Simonloh
Member |
11-Feb-2007 02:07
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
ShareJunction ( Request & Review 5 by Simon Loh )( Sat )( 10 Feb 07 )
Forumer 11 ( ZhouYu )
( Posted 4 What?s your view on
( A ) Fundamental :
1. China Sun Principal Activities à company engaged in the processing of corn kernels and the production of modified starch and other corn-based products in various locations in the PRC, namely, Shenyany, Tongliao, The corn starch produced is sold for use in various applications, including food processing such as refining sugars and corn sweeteners, making processed meat such as sausages and producing monosodium glutamate, manufacturing of pharmaceutical products such as dextrose, vitamins and antibiotics and other industrial applications such as the production of papers, textiles, building materials and personal care products etc.
2. 2004 Dec à Profit Approx RMB 172 Millions ( Approx S$34 Millions )
2005 Dec à Profit Approx RMB 242 Millions ( Approx S$48 Millions )
Increased of Profit RMB 70 Millions ( S$14 Millions or 41% ) as compared to previous yr à Fundamentally Good & Healthy Sign !
( B ) Technical :
1. 2. 3.
( C ) Observation & Comments :
However, it?s share price still keep on dropping and dropping from 3 Aug 06 ( 6 mths ago ) till now. It dropped from a high of S$0.89 on 3 Aug 06 to a low of S$0.625 on 29 Jan 07 ( Dropped 30% in 6 mths, ie every mth = 5% lost ). As you can see, in Stock & Share, it can be a complicated thing. If you were to just analyze the fundamentals alone, it is still not enough ! It has to combine with Technical plus many other factors involved to make it a ?Profitable Deal? ! This is just 1 example here, in the real world, there are still ?many many? of such cases happening à so called ?UNCOLELATED? with fundamental. That?s why I said your ?Physical Experience? in Stock Market Trading is Important ! You have to ?GET IN? the real world to learn and experience before you can become a good trader or investor ! Whatever the reasons for its drop is NOT important ! Bottom line, if the stock keep dropping ? you can?t make money !
You said you are vested in this counter, but what price, date & amount ? ( You did NOT specify with much information, too late now ! ). If you want me to review, try to give COMPLETE information. It really DIFFICULT for me to access and advise you from here, the situation can be very different from case to case !
Currently, this stock is still in it?s down trend mode and still dropping, I would advise you NOT to go in now & DON?T accumulate more. Wait till it stabilized, then consider again. AVOID GOING IN FOR NOW ! ( Note : this counter was once used to be a high gain stock but NOT at the moment ).
__________________________________________________________________________________
Forumer 12 ( Novocaine & Jackjames )
( Posted 4 Can you comment on Stock LMA ?
( A ) Fundamental :
1. LMA International ( Company?s Background and Information ) :
LMA International N.V. designs, develops, markets and distributes medical equipment, principally the LMA? laryngeal mask used by physicians to allow respiration, provide ventilation to and support the airway of patients undergoing surgical procedures and life-saving interventions. LMA currently offers eight different laryngeal mask formats (five reusable and three single-use) in a range of sizes (from pediatric to adult) for use in a variety of clinical applications and settings. The Company markets and distributes its products in over 100 countries including the
2. LMA International ( Company?s Financial Status ) :
2005 Dec à Profit Approx US$25 Millions ( Approx S$38 Millions )
2006 Dec à Profit Approx US$23 Millions ( Approx S$36 Millions )
Dropped US$2 Millions ( S$2 Millions or Dropped 6% ) as compared to previous yr à Fundamentally Sound & Healthy Sign, not too bad !
( B ) Technical :
1. LMA current share price = S$0.585 ( 10 Feb 07 ).
2. LMA ( Ave Volume for the last 3 Mths ) : 1,088 Lots per day à Technically Healthy Volume.
3. LMA ( Ave Value for the last 3 Mths ) : S$636,078 per day à Technically Healthy Value.
( C ) Observation & Comments :
LMA company is currently ?in the profit?. 2005 Dec financial yr is approx US$25 Millions ( or approx S$38 Millions ).
However, it?s share price has been dropping since Mar 05 listed ( About 2 yrs ) till now. It dropped from an initial listed high of S$0.915 on 21 Mar 05 to a low of S$0.585 on 9 Feb 07 ( Dropped 36% in 1 yr & 10 mths, ie every mth = 2% lost ).
This is basically a down trend stock with some ?Up & Down Cycles? in between. Since it is a down trend stock and still continue in its down trend mode. It is advised to exercise caution despite of it?s good financial result & background. As you can see, what ever the reasons of its down trend is NOT important ! As long as it is in the long term down trend mode and continue ? you can?t make good money from there! If you go in, your gain will be limited and your risk is high à NOT worth the RISK ! After the end of its down trend mode, it may still take a while to ?STABILIZED? before moving on to its up trend mode again. Wait till it is stabilized and about to up swing, then you may go in !
For now, the decision to buy this stock or not is SIMPLE ! If there are so many good fundamentals stocks out there, and all in the ?Uptrend Mode?, with ?Safer Technical Indicators? and ?Lower Risk Factors?, WHY should we ?Die Die? consider for this one ?
Forumer 13 ( A&C2004 )
( Posted 4 Please comment on the few stocks that I am holding now per below ! Should I sell before the market correction on Mar 07 or buy more on the dips ?
Dear Forumer A&C2004,
1. You bought ( Hiap Seng )( S$0.455 )( 12 Jan 07 )( 5 Lots )( S$2,275 )( Cash )
Currently ( 10 Feb 07 )( S$0.765 )( Up 68% in 1 mth )( Hence, gain per mth 68% ).
Your Profit = $310 X 5 Lots = $1,550 ( Ex Comm ).
The current situation for this counter is ?HIGHLY DANGER & SPECULATIVE?. It is already in its all time record high, you need to observe with care. If you want to play this counter now, YOUR TIMING MUST BE SUPER GOOD, if not very easy to get burn ! As I see, it?s currently on its cycle low and should have one more ?Burst Upwards? before the next major correction. Try to wait till the cycle high & sell off in about 1-2 weeks time from now. After that, change to another ?safer counter? like Pan United ( Item 6 per below ) etc !
2. You bought ( Midas )( S$1.46 )( 11 Jan 07 )( 4 Lots )( S$5,840 )( CPF )
Currently (10 Feb 07 )( S$1.51 )( Up 2% in 1 mth )( Hence, gain per mth 2% ).
Your Profit = $50 X 4 Lots = $200 ( Ex Comm ).
This counter is in the ?Uptrend Mode? since 31 Oct 05 ( Approx 1 yr 4 mths ago ) till now. If there is no major issues or bear coming ?. you may continue to hold for the longer term ( Note : Not much Up / Down Cycle Trend to gain à go for the longer term ! ). You may add more if you really want to but it is no need for now as I see !
3. You bought ( Rotary )( S$0.58 )( 2 Aug 06 )( 4 Lots )( S$2,320 )( Cash )
Currently (10 Feb 07 )( S$0.895 )( Up 54% in 6 mths )( Hence, gain per mth 9% ).
Your Profit = $315 X 4 Lots = $1,260 ( Ex Comm ).
You may select to ?Hold Long Term? OR use ?Short Cycle Trend Method?. Both methods are fine ! However, if you have the time, it is better to do on short cycle mode à Higher Returns in the long term & safer stagedy too. Currently on CYCLE HIGH, you can let go at a high price between $0.9 - $0.945 range. After that wait for a few weeks & go in at the cycle low again !
4. You Ave Up again ( Rotary )( S$0.86 )( 1 Feb 07 )( 4 Lots )( S$3,440 )( CPF ) + Rights
Currently (10 Feb 07 )( S$0.895 )( Up 4% in 1 week )( Hence, gain per mth 16% ).
Your Profit = $35 X 4 Lots = $140 ( Ex Comm ).
Same advise as above Item 3.
5. You bought ( Labroy Marine )( S$1.50 )( 2 Aug 06 )( 2 Lots )( S$3,000 )
Currently (10 Feb 07 )( S$1.93 )( Up 29% in 6 mths )( Hence, gain per mth 5% ).
Your Profit = $430 X 2 Lots = $860 ( Ex Comm ).
This counter has been ?STANGANT? for the last 4 mths since 11 Oct 06 before shooting to current $1.93 level. Currently on cycle high, you can let go at a high price between $1.90 - $1.97 range. After that, observe whether it is still in its uptrend mode, if yes ..... go in at the cycle low again ! If not up trend mode, change counter !
6. You bought ( Pan United )( S$0.93 )( 22 Jan 07 )( 3 Lots )( S$2,790 )
Currently ( 10 Feb 07 )( S$0.895 )( Down 4% in 3 week )( Hence, lost per mth 5% ).
Your Lost = - $35 X 3 Lots = - $105 ( Ex Comm ).
The record high price for this counter was on _______________________________________________________________________________
( A ) Your Portfolio Summary :
Your ?Total Portfolio Cost? to date ( 10 Feb 07 )( S$19,665 = Approx S$20K )( Cash + CPF ).
Your ?Total Portfolio Profit Gain? to date ( 10 Feb 07 )( S$3,905 - $358 total comm = Nett $3547 = Approx Nett S$3.5K ) ( After minus of Commission )( Cash + CPF ).
( B ) Your Portfolio Performance :
Your Nett Gain Amt = Nett S$3547 ( Nett S$3.5K ).
Your Ave Holding Timeframe = 2.5 Mths.
Your Ave Gain % = 18% per stock per trade.
You got 18% gain in 2.5 mths à that is about 7% gain per mth or 87% gain per yr.
( B ) My Advise & Comments :
Your performance is Excellent ! Not many people out there can match it !
However, you can further improved on your stagedy and timing skills. Your ?Hit Rate? or Success Rate is quite good but your ?Fire Power? is rather weak due to holding too many stocks ! Currently you are holding about 5 Stocks, since your hit rate is quite good, you may reduce your holding to about 3-4 stocks ( Item 2,3,5 or 6 à Counter Midas, Rotary, Labroy Marine or Pan United is fine ), and concentrate your ?Fire Power? on them !
Remember, if you are holding too many stocks, that would take up a lot of time to monitor and your ?Money Resources? or fire power would be weaken too and in the bear market it is also difficult to ?RUN? ! Too weak a ?Fire Power? will not achieve OPTIMAL RESULT ! Good Luck in your Future Trading but do LOOK OUT for the BEAR also, BE VIGILANT at all time !
______________________________________________________________________
My Review Ends at Forumer ?A&C2004? dated ( 4 Feb 07 )( 2209 hrs ).
Will carry on Forumer ?Davecsh? request dated ( 4 Feb 07 )( 2225 hrs ) on Counter Plastoform at a later stage when I have the time !
Regards
Simon Loh
( Sun )( 11 Feb 07 )( 0200 hrs )
________________ END ________________
Forumer 11 ( ZhouYu )
( Posted 4 What?s your view on
( A ) Fundamental :
1. China Sun Principal Activities à company engaged in the processing of corn kernels and the production of modified starch and other corn-based products in various locations in the PRC, namely, Shenyany, Tongliao, The corn starch produced is sold for use in various applications, including food processing such as refining sugars and corn sweeteners, making processed meat such as sausages and producing monosodium glutamate, manufacturing of pharmaceutical products such as dextrose, vitamins and antibiotics and other industrial applications such as the production of papers, textiles, building materials and personal care products etc.
2. 2004 Dec à Profit Approx RMB 172 Millions ( Approx S$34 Millions )
2005 Dec à Profit Approx RMB 242 Millions ( Approx S$48 Millions )
Increased of Profit RMB 70 Millions ( S$14 Millions or 41% ) as compared to previous yr à Fundamentally Good & Healthy Sign !
( B ) Technical :
1. 2. 3.
( C ) Observation & Comments :
However, it?s share price still keep on dropping and dropping from 3 Aug 06 ( 6 mths ago ) till now. It dropped from a high of S$0.89 on 3 Aug 06 to a low of S$0.625 on 29 Jan 07 ( Dropped 30% in 6 mths, ie every mth = 5% lost ). As you can see, in Stock & Share, it can be a complicated thing. If you were to just analyze the fundamentals alone, it is still not enough ! It has to combine with Technical plus many other factors involved to make it a ?Profitable Deal? ! This is just 1 example here, in the real world, there are still ?many many? of such cases happening à so called ?UNCOLELATED? with fundamental. That?s why I said your ?Physical Experience? in Stock Market Trading is Important ! You have to ?GET IN? the real world to learn and experience before you can become a good trader or investor ! Whatever the reasons for its drop is NOT important ! Bottom line, if the stock keep dropping ? you can?t make money !
You said you are vested in this counter, but what price, date & amount ? ( You did NOT specify with much information, too late now ! ). If you want me to review, try to give COMPLETE information. It really DIFFICULT for me to access and advise you from here, the situation can be very different from case to case !
Currently, this stock is still in it?s down trend mode and still dropping, I would advise you NOT to go in now & DON?T accumulate more. Wait till it stabilized, then consider again. AVOID GOING IN FOR NOW ! ( Note : this counter was once used to be a high gain stock but NOT at the moment ).
__________________________________________________________________________________
Forumer 12 ( Novocaine & Jackjames )
( Posted 4 Can you comment on Stock LMA ?
( A ) Fundamental :
1. LMA International ( Company?s Background and Information ) :
LMA International N.V. designs, develops, markets and distributes medical equipment, principally the LMA? laryngeal mask used by physicians to allow respiration, provide ventilation to and support the airway of patients undergoing surgical procedures and life-saving interventions. LMA currently offers eight different laryngeal mask formats (five reusable and three single-use) in a range of sizes (from pediatric to adult) for use in a variety of clinical applications and settings. The Company markets and distributes its products in over 100 countries including the
2. LMA International ( Company?s Financial Status ) :
2005 Dec à Profit Approx US$25 Millions ( Approx S$38 Millions )
2006 Dec à Profit Approx US$23 Millions ( Approx S$36 Millions )
Dropped US$2 Millions ( S$2 Millions or Dropped 6% ) as compared to previous yr à Fundamentally Sound & Healthy Sign, not too bad !
( B ) Technical :
|
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
musicwhiz5
Senior |
10-Feb-2007 00:43
|
|
x 1
x 0 Alert Admin |
At the current moment, nothing is very cheap with regards to valuation versus business prospects. If you wish to buy for the long haul, you must make sure the company is still around 3-5 years later ! Also, competition should not eat into its margins and profits such that it becomes a laggard while the rest of the companies are showing earnings growth. Pan-United Marine is a good company and was on my radar since $1.20, when it was good to buy at 9x P/E. Currently, with the 10 cents CD, it is at $1.60+ but is still affordable as the business can scale up and their order books are full. Competitors in the market would include Cosco but I believe their customer base may be different. Sadly, not too much details on how they plan to grow their operations although I saw a report which says they plan to refurbish their Batam yard. My advice: make an independent and thoughtful assessment of the company, its industry and growth prospects. Based on that, project its earnings forward and come up with a forward EPS and P/E. If the price today is reasonable, then it is worth a BUY and HOLD. I do not set target prices for selling for any company as it depends on individuals on when they wish to "take profit". If a business has a good model and is growing, I don't see the need to have a short-term view of taking profit just for the sake of "locking in the gains". Cheers and good luck to all ! |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
|
|
|
tecky25
Member |
10-Feb-2007 00:24
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Anyone buying advance holding at this moment. guess the stock is at the bottom now and very defensive at the moment. Tiongwoon may be another great buy. Any comment? Hi Simon, any more tips coming in? We want to make big big money from the stock market |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
hahalol
Member |
09-Feb-2007 17:06
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
hi simon, me have hold ipc corp at 16 cents for 4 mths , would like to hear ur views about this laggard stock , nw the price is 18 cents , should i continue holding or... and csc now 24 cents , i buy at 27 cents, again should i hold or sell it to minimise loss , would like to hear ur views soon ? many thanks |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
ed88ks
Senior |
09-Feb-2007 16:46
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
musicwhiz5 Member , hope you could also recommend some FA counters for all of us...base on your reasoning too... |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
|
|
|
fortunegal
Senior |
08-Feb-2007 13:29
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Simon, I read through all your postings to others here and I have learnt quite a lot..thanks. I bought Equation at (0.20 at 20 lots) on 19.01.07, StarCruise(0.565 at 5 lots) on 24.01.07, BBR (0.165 at 25lots) on 24.01.07. All losing money now. You have already feedback to HOLD StarCruise and BBR in earlier posts. perhaps you can open a half day Sat class to share your knowledge to many of us and we wouldn't bug you often...... *just kidding...i know you are a busy man*.... :) |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
JenniferLow
Member |
08-Feb-2007 13:18
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
simon, i have been holding ouhua since ipo @55, should i hold on ? Thanks in advance. |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
10bagger
Member |
08-Feb-2007 13:17
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
simon, any opinion on chinamilk? thks |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
Fairygal
Veteran |
08-Feb-2007 12:08
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Hey, Mr SimonLoh, you are amazing! Can I call you Dr Loh? |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
|
|
|
musicwhiz5
Senior |
08-Feb-2007 11:46
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
ZhouYu, Yes by all means please create a new thread called "Value Investing - An Analysis of Companies". I am still new to this forum so am unsure how to do it. Many thanks. |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
ZhouYu
Member |
08-Feb-2007 11:06
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Hi MusicWhiz5 Since you r more into longer time frame of ivesting, y not having a new thread of posting on research for value investments on companies.... I too have compute a list of companies from warren buffett way of investments, but would like to share with ppl like you to correct the mistakes I made in companies stocks valuation. Best regards |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
musicwhiz5
Senior |
08-Feb-2007 08:51
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Dear all, Thank you for the feedback. My initial posting was meant for information sake and was not addressed to anyone in particular. Just hope that I can contribute positively to the analysis of companies and businesses and help to share some knowledge. That's what forums are for ! I will periodically post some of my thoughts on certain companies operating in certain industries. With the reporting season coming up, there are lots of numbers and ratios to churn, and a lot of MD&A to read. Please note that my reviews shall be based on business fundamentals and prospects alone; no mention shall be made of the price of the counter. It is up to the individual to analyze what the information means. |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
iPunter
Supreme |
08-Feb-2007 08:25
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
To both Simonloh and Musicwhiz5... :) Thanks very much for your valuable advice. Appreciate your kindness... :) |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
ed88ks
Senior |
08-Feb-2007 04:15
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
musicwhiz5 Member Great reminder , member must have fear too, without it you will lose money. and for greed we have to be sure we move with the right stock ...good reminder... Simon, i am looking forwrd for you review too... for my counters.. |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
Simonloh
Member |
08-Feb-2007 03:04
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Dear Musicwhiz5, I have seen and read your posting and I will do my comments on it when it is "YOUR TURN" for me to reply to you. That maybe a few days time from now, as you know there is a long list waiting requesting for my reply ... I have to give priority to those who post their question to me first .... ! Meanwhile, if there is anybody else in the forum that have others comments or views, you may "voice ahead" first and share with us all ! Regards, |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
ZhouYu
Member |
08-Feb-2007 02:48
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Hi musicwhiz5 what is saying is true, for those who going for long term... Like me I am using the value investing strategy for my long term fund and i also set aside another fund of money to trade based solely on TA. It fun and trill to see sometimes that the TA really work along your plans, and this fund of money come whenever there signals of buy/sell calls. |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |
|
ZhouYu
Member |
08-Feb-2007 02:26
|
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Thank you simon :) Really learn alot from you. Hope to learn more TA stuffs from u too. Thanks again |
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |