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STXOSV
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ksloi1
Member |
28-Jan-2013 21:31
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Upside potential is definitely high after the " dust is settled" . When it dip a little , can load up more (I would think it would fluctuate within a few cents during current period ). Only possible downside risk is if the Final year (2012) results to be announced in Mid Feb are real bad . Nonetheless, it would not go below 1.22. The " risk free" price would be 1.25 (1.22 + 0.03) conservatively, being the offered price + dividend in Apr 2011 based on 2010 final results. The profits for 2012 is not as high as that of 2011 , but it should be between 2010's and 2011's , hence , I would say the dividend announced would fall within 0.03 to 0.10 cents per share, if the management decide to give dividend . For those who still have bullets , you could load up when there is a pull back to maximise your returns....
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triphopper
Member |
28-Jan-2013 21:10
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Appointment of Independent Financial Adviser The Board of Directors (the " Board" ) of the Company refers to the announcement made on 23 January 2013 (the " Offer Announcement" ) by Credit Suisse (Singapore) Limited and Nomura Singapore Limited, for and on behalf of Fincantieri Oil & Gas S.p.A. (the " Offeror" ), a direct wholly-owned subsidiary of Fincantieri – Cantieri Navali Italiani S.p.A., in relation to the mandatory unconditional cash offer (the " Offer" ) by the Offeror to acquire all the issued ordinary shares (" Shares" ) in the capital of the Company, other than those already owned, controlled or agreed to be acquired by the Offeror, its related corporations and their respective nominees. The Board wishes to inform shareholders of the Company (" Shareholders" ) that it has on 28 January 2013 appointed Ernst & Young Corporate Finance Pte. Ltd. (the " IFA" ) as the independent financial adviser to advise the Directors of the Company who are considered independent for the purposes of the Offer (the " Independent Directors" ). A circular containing, inter alia, the advice of the IFA and the recommendation of the Independent Directors in relation to the Offer (the " Circular" ) will be sent to Shareholders in due course. |
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cheerstan2002
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28-Jan-2013 20:50
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Yes, I agree the potential upside is very good ... I am vested and holding too ... Easily reach 1.5 when General Offer deal is done and settled, this is 14 -15% upside and for 680 lots, it is profit of 130K if your entry price is 1.3 .... Fantastic! Cheers |
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ongahhuat888
Member |
28-Jan-2013 20:34
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I am still holding on to my 680 lots. | ||
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
28-Jan-2013 16:19
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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24 Jan look like a hammer to me.... if true, it is more likely to go back to $1.30 and above .. come come wake up and run.. 
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
28-Jan-2013 09:08
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Competition Commission of Singapore
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wei777
Member |
28-Jan-2013 07:43
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hi, may i know what's CCS? | ||
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CWC2929
Senior |
28-Jan-2013 01:43
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Must pray hard CCS not involve......if conform i will temporary OUT ....... 
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
27-Jan-2013 20:10
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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will hold on to STX OSV so long it don't fall below $1.22... | ||
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ksloi1
Member |
27-Jan-2013 19:10
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Agree with you , Peter Pan, on the facts you stated, however, the dividend may not be as high as last year's judging from the lowered profitability in 2012 . Perhaps, they may revert to the 0.03/share similar to that of 2011's . The prices may hover at the current level or dip a little for a while before a good news to push it up again... However, if the Final results to be released in Mid Feb turn out to be bad, the price may dip a little further . CCS may take 30 to 120 days to finalise the findings ... |
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Peter_Pan
Supreme |
27-Jan-2013 18:27
Yells: "did you order dunkin' donuts" |
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At current level and overhang removed and the no need to fear atmosphere nearly established, it takes just a piece of good news or none at all to appreciate the value. | ||
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Peter_Pan
Supreme |
27-Jan-2013 18:16
Yells: "did you order dunkin' donuts" |
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Think will continue loading again. More upside gain plus potential dividend. Cool! | ||
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darkknight
Member |
27-Jan-2013 16:31
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Why would there be a substantial lessening of competition for this transaction?
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cheerstan2002
Member |
27-Jan-2013 14:10
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Published January 26, 2013 Business Times CCS invites feedback on STX OSV deal with Fincantieri By Lynn Kan print |email this article THE Competition Commission of Singapore (CCS) is seeking public feedback on whether Italian shipbuilder Fincantieri's proposed takeover of Singapore-incorporated STX OSV may lead to " a substantial lessening of competition within any market in Singapore" . STX is listed on Singapore Exchange. CCS said in a media release yesterday that it received a notification for decision on Jan 16 from both STX OSV and Fincantieri. The latter said on Jan 23 that it had wrapped up the purchase of 50.75 per cent of STX OSV for 455 million euros (S$730 million), triggering a mandatory unconditional cash offer for the rest of STX OSV. A CCS spokesman said the consultation will be on Section 54 of the Competition Act, which prohibits mergers that result, or may be expected to result, in substantial lessening of competition in any market in Singapore. It is not mandatory here for merger parties to inform the CCS about their merger situation, but they can opt to apply to CCS for a decision on whether the merger would violate Section 54. http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/premium/companies/others/ccs-invites-feedback-stx-osv-deal-fincantieri-20130126 |
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Listing
Senior |
27-Jan-2013 11:50
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If takeover is disallowed then the big dividend will come thru! And price will jump? | ||
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Peter_Pan
Supreme |
27-Jan-2013 10:49
Yells: "did you order dunkin' donuts" |
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THE Competition Commission of Singapore (CCS) is seeking public feedback on whether Italian shipbuilder Fincantieri's proposed takeover of Singapore-incorporated STX OSV may lead to "a substantial lessening of competition within any market in Singapore". STX is listed on Singapore Exchange. | ||
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iPunter
Supreme |
26-Jan-2013 19:00
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It all depend son how much the person has " mau-ed" ... If they had really " mau-ed" , esp by buying more and more, the final losses with another small drop can be substantial... 
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neon31
Member |
26-Jan-2013 18:42
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It seems better to wait and reap at 1.6 as the loss is not that much from current price. | ||
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Peter_Pan
Supreme |
26-Jan-2013 18:15
Yells: "did you order dunkin' donuts" |
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STXOSV $1.555 COME M NEY COME
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Peter_Pan
Supreme |
26-Jan-2013 17:17
Yells: "did you order dunkin' donuts" |
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From: http://www.investinpassiveincome.com/reject-stx-osv-offer-at-1-22/ 18 Responses to “Reject STX OSV Offer At $1.22” |
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Remember that Wheelock sold their SC Global shares in their privatization bid at < than their purchase price?
Shit happens!
Hi so1trg, unfortunately yes it happens. However, the free float for SC Global is lower than STX OSV. Another key point is that SC Global offer is a significant premium 49% over the last traded price before the announcement and 71% over the 12 months weighted average price. Here STX OSV offer is a significant discount to last traded and weighted average price.
Out of curiousity, in your opinion n experience, do you think STX OSV will ever come down to the offer price of Financanteri in the near term?
Hi so1trg, it really depends on many factors. Such as if the free float is low, whether the other bigger shareholders are selling the stakes and so on. For companies with low free float less than 20%, the chances are quite high for a forced delisting. For STX OSV, free float is higher at about 30%.
Gd morning Calvin. What does all this mean? Would pple like us who have invested in the stock be at risk now? What potentially will happen and the impact on our investment? Thanks!
Hi Diana, as of now no. All the analysts have predicted that the general offer will not get sufficient investors to agree to the price. Remember to do your part as well! In the worst case scenario, the free float reduces to less than 10% then they can force remaining minority shareholders to tender their shares at $1.22.
Hi Calvin,
So is it advisable to buy STX OSV at the currrent price of 1.285?
Hi YKH, it is really up to you. As I have mentioned the downside is $1.22 if the general offer goes through. However, the valuation for the company is worth much higher than that and all the analysts are of the opinion that the general offer will not be accepted as the price is too low.
I will do my part. Period
Thanks yokoosi! We need to keep the good companies listed so we can invest!
Hi Calvin,
Thanks very much for your post. I will surely reject the general offer, as instructed by you. FYI, the last 6-mth average TP is $1.91 from online sources.
You mentioned “In the worst case scenario, the free float reduces to less than 10%. Then they can force remaining minority shareholders to tender their shares at $1.22.”
What exactly does this statement mean? What is free float, and the significance of < 10%? Also, what can cause this situation to happen, and will there be a high or low potential of this happening?
Sorry for asking, but too technical for me to understand. Thanks very much.
Hi jojo, thanks!
Based on the listing rules, a listed company cannot stay listed with free float below 10%. Therefore, once free float falls below 10%, the acquirer can force minority shareholders to accept its offer price. Free float is the percentage of shares held by the public investors, excluding the strategic shareholders.
As of now, the consensus among analysts is that the offer will not go through. That is of course unless the current public investors don’t understand the value and sell because they think the stock price might go lower.
Hi Calvin, I will reject the offer. Anyway why does the website of STX OSV say that DBS is their largest shareholder?
1 DBS Nominees Pte Ltd. 861,506,827 73.01
http://www.stxosv.com/investor/stockinformation/shareholders/Pages/default.aspx
Hi Samuel, DBS Nominees is a nominee shareholder who is holding the stocks on behalf of the actual owner. This is governed by a custodial agreement, so the actual owner remains unknown to the public.
Hi Calvin,
If i use Jaya, ASL Marine and Marco Polo using average 8x PER to compare with STXOSV, i believe share price could be value at min $1.5.
As for Fincantieri , my guess is i dont think it will go thrgh at 1.22. It just a mandatory procedure to perform as per listing compliance. They do not show intention to acquire up to 100% therefore maintaining their low GO price.
Well, having say all the positive side i would like to ask your view and reaffirm some negative side in investing in STXOSV
-Fundamentally, do you think STXOSV is worth investing.
-Shipping is in a down cycle. Mgmt has in previous report stated that there are not much enquiry as anticipated
-However given the persistence shipping cycle downturn, im afraid near to mid term prospect is not so bright.
Vested and would like to ask for your view.
Thanks
Sam
Hi Samuel,
I am also of the opinion that the GO won’t go through. If they really wanted to take it private, they would need to revise their offer.
STX OSV is not a standard ship builder. It builds specialized vessels known as OSVs which are used generally in the offshore oil & gas industry. They include AHTS, PSVs, OSCVs etc. So the important factor is oil & gas rather than shipping. Most of the customers are OSV operators such as Farstad and DOF.
As of now, offshore oil & gas remains strong as seen by the strong book orders of Keppel Corp, Semb Corp for rigs. So naturally OSVs will be required to service the rigs. Additionally, the STX OSVs are highly complex vessels which are not easily replicated by competitor yards, giving them a competitive advantage.
Hi Calvin,
I really would like to thank you for writing this post.
At this point of time it’s very much needed and it is important that minority shareholders like ourselves can all unanimously agree that the cash offer of $1.22 is ridiculously low (never mind the down-trending offshore segment blah blah those are still not convincing enough reasons to explain the low-ball offer). Sometimes, a little patience goes a long way.
I am hoping that everyone who is still holding on to the shares of STX OSV will continue to keep their faith in this company just as they have over the past few weeks/months.
The fact remains that STX OSV is a fundamentally strong high-end OSV player, and that STX corporation desperately needed cash to ease its current financial constraints at the time of the selling of STX OSV at $1.22 to the Italian company who so happily bought it up.
So I’m hoping that everyone who are vested in this company would spread the word across forums and the net (though I’m not suggesting for anyone who are not vested to buy into the company now- i’m merely appealing to those who have been vested since last year and do not intend to cut losses just yet because of the potential that they see in STX OSV).
Point is, don’t go into panic selling mode now. Remember, those who look at the fundamentals of the company and are patient with the game will, more often than not, triumph.
Hi Anonymous, no problem!
Yes, the low ball offer came from the fact that STX needed cash, but fundamentally STX OSV by itself is very strong. In fact, under a different parent, SOH may even do better as the parent does not need to keep drawing cash from it.
I am seeing some forums with similar message, so yes do spread the word for current owners to stick to their guns.