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Latest Forum Topics / SingTel    Last:3.05 --  Post Reply
Singtel Bullish???
winsontkl
Elite
26-Jun-2008 22:29     
 
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Is that what drag down the price today???

 



shplayer      ( Date: 26-Jun-2008 11:28) Posted:



Interesting article.

SingTel
Twice shy
Reading Australian politics badly: Chief executive Chua Sock Koong may not want to play in another game that she is going to lose, says Business Spectator.
Jun 25, 2008

Commentery by Alan Kohler
Citigroup analysts have calculated that A$770 billion needs to be spent on Australian infrastructure over the next 10 years, and without doubt the most important piece of this is the national broadband network.

But as things stand the government is in danger of getting no bids at all for its broadband tender.

The key player right now is not Telstra, but Singapore Telecom. Telstra definitely wants to build and operate a new fibre broadband network (but only on its own terms) but does Singtel, really?

After its debacle over the 'Broadband Connect' Opel joint venture with Elders, industry talk is that SingTel is now wavering over fibre-to-the-node (FTTN).

SingTel made a dreadful mistake by doing a cosy deal with the former minister, Helen Coonan, for A$958 million of government funding just a few months before an election that everyone knew she and her party were going to lose.

Sure enough, the new minister, Stephen Conroy, quickly found an excuse to cancel that deal and the Singaporeans were made to look foolish.

Now bids are soon due for the Labor government’s version. Yesterday we examined in detail Telstra’s position, which is clear and tough: it wants full ownership of the network (no other shareholders), it wants it integrated fully into its business and is now considering walking away and doing something else.

Today let's look at the G8, or Terria as it’s now called – a consortium of eight Telstra competitors/customers led by SingTel Optus.

If Telstra builds FTTN on its own terms then the investments in Dslams by all of these firms – that is the equipment needed for ADSL broadband – would be worthless and their independent network businesses would disappear.

They would become pure mendicants to a dominant competitor and no matter what the regulatory protections were, the value of their enterprises would fall – a lot.

Therefore they must come up with an alternative bid for the network to stop that happening.

The trouble is that SingTel chief executive Chua Sock Koong would not want to play in another game that she is going to lose. Losing face once is barely acceptable; twice is out of the question.

If I were advising Ms Chua now, I would tell her that SingTel is in the box seat because, in my view, the Terria consortium merely has to show up in the contest with a credible bid to win it.

That’s because if it can actually produce a tender that resembles what was originally proposed by the G9 in 2006, the government would have little choice but to accept it: it would be an open access, investor-owned network that guaranteed much lower access prices than Telstra.

The only thing Telstra would have going for its bid is the confidence that it can build a good network quickly, because it did it with 3G. But it’s bid would be integrated in its business, and the access price would be high.

The government has not spelt out the criteria for winning the NBN tender, which is why there is so much noisy and pointless blarney going on at the moment.

All that was said in the Request for Proposals is that the government is looking for the “best value for money”. But whose money? The government’s, or the consumers?

That is – highest return to the government’s Building Australia Fund, which will supply the cash, or lowest access prices for retailers? No one knows.

The original G9 proposal involved an operating company, called SpeedReach, that would be an industry joint venture, and an ownership company, called Fanoc.

The proposed monthly access cost per customer was A$22.92 and, based on the then average revenue per user of A$72 a month, the retail margin would have been US$49.08 for access-seekers – a profit margin of 68 per cent.

That was based on having 2 million customers producing revenue of $550 million to service a A$3 billion network cost.

Fanoc’s equity would be supplied by private investors (not the G9) and the rest of the money would come from bank and securitised debt.

But that was before the credit crunch and when the project was targeted at metropolitan areas and would cost just A$3 billion. Now it must cover 98 per cent of the country and will cost something like A$15 billion.

On that basis, can the Terria network still offer 68 per cent profit margins to its wholesale customers and an access price of A$22.92?

There are two keys to this, one only partly known and one totally unknown: the government’s A$4.7 billion, and Telstra.

Specifically, would any of Telstra’s traffic go on the network? It owns 70 per cent of the customers. The 30 per cent of the market in the hands of SingTel and the others would not support a A$15 billion national network build.

The government might legislate to ensure that Terria’s FTTN is the only FTTN, by prohibiting anyone else from installing neighbourhood nodes, but would it – could it – force Telstra to buy access from the network? No.

Telstra is now talking about upgrading and extending its 15-year old HFC network and also using the 3G wireless network, so it doesn’t have to buy from Terria or anyone else. Maybe it would buy some access, but only to fill in the gaps.

So it comes down to whether the government’s A$4.7 billion would be enough to support a Terria network that didn’t get Telstra’s traffic, and that depends on the return the government wants on the money.

If it’s just the government bond rate in return for taking equity risk, that might do it, but it’s a complicated funding equation.

The trouble is that no one knows what the government wants, which is why they’re so nervous in Singapore.

They thought they understood Australian politics last year but found they did not. Now they have to take another punt on it, but they’re not, by nature, punters.

 
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AK_Francis
Supreme
26-Jun-2008 12:14     
 
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shplayer
Elite
26-Jun-2008 11:28     
 
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Interesting article.

SingTel
Twice shy
Reading Australian politics badly: Chief executive Chua Sock Koong may not want to play in another game that she is going to lose, says Business Spectator.
Jun 25, 2008

Commentery by Alan Kohler
Citigroup analysts have calculated that A$770 billion needs to be spent on Australian infrastructure over the next 10 years, and without doubt the most important piece of this is the national broadband network.

But as things stand the government is in danger of getting no bids at all for its broadband tender.

The key player right now is not Telstra, but Singapore Telecom. Telstra definitely wants to build and operate a new fibre broadband network (but only on its own terms) but does Singtel, really?

After its debacle over the 'Broadband Connect' Opel joint venture with Elders, industry talk is that SingTel is now wavering over fibre-to-the-node (FTTN).

SingTel made a dreadful mistake by doing a cosy deal with the former minister, Helen Coonan, for A$958 million of government funding just a few months before an election that everyone knew she and her party were going to lose.

Sure enough, the new minister, Stephen Conroy, quickly found an excuse to cancel that deal and the Singaporeans were made to look foolish.

Now bids are soon due for the Labor government’s version. Yesterday we examined in detail Telstra’s position, which is clear and tough: it wants full ownership of the network (no other shareholders), it wants it integrated fully into its business and is now considering walking away and doing something else.

Today let's look at the G8, or Terria as it’s now called – a consortium of eight Telstra competitors/customers led by SingTel Optus.

If Telstra builds FTTN on its own terms then the investments in Dslams by all of these firms – that is the equipment needed for ADSL broadband – would be worthless and their independent network businesses would disappear.

They would become pure mendicants to a dominant competitor and no matter what the regulatory protections were, the value of their enterprises would fall – a lot.

Therefore they must come up with an alternative bid for the network to stop that happening.

The trouble is that SingTel chief executive Chua Sock Koong would not want to play in another game that she is going to lose. Losing face once is barely acceptable; twice is out of the question.

If I were advising Ms Chua now, I would tell her that SingTel is in the box seat because, in my view, the Terria consortium merely has to show up in the contest with a credible bid to win it.

That’s because if it can actually produce a tender that resembles what was originally proposed by the G9 in 2006, the government would have little choice but to accept it: it would be an open access, investor-owned network that guaranteed much lower access prices than Telstra.

The only thing Telstra would have going for its bid is the confidence that it can build a good network quickly, because it did it with 3G. But it’s bid would be integrated in its business, and the access price would be high.

The government has not spelt out the criteria for winning the NBN tender, which is why there is so much noisy and pointless blarney going on at the moment.

All that was said in the Request for Proposals is that the government is looking for the “best value for money”. But whose money? The government’s, or the consumers?

That is – highest return to the government’s Building Australia Fund, which will supply the cash, or lowest access prices for retailers? No one knows.

The original G9 proposal involved an operating company, called SpeedReach, that would be an industry joint venture, and an ownership company, called Fanoc.

The proposed monthly access cost per customer was A$22.92 and, based on the then average revenue per user of A$72 a month, the retail margin would have been US$49.08 for access-seekers – a profit margin of 68 per cent.

That was based on having 2 million customers producing revenue of $550 million to service a A$3 billion network cost.

Fanoc’s equity would be supplied by private investors (not the G9) and the rest of the money would come from bank and securitised debt.

But that was before the credit crunch and when the project was targeted at metropolitan areas and would cost just A$3 billion. Now it must cover 98 per cent of the country and will cost something like A$15 billion.

On that basis, can the Terria network still offer 68 per cent profit margins to its wholesale customers and an access price of A$22.92?

There are two keys to this, one only partly known and one totally unknown: the government’s A$4.7 billion, and Telstra.

Specifically, would any of Telstra’s traffic go on the network? It owns 70 per cent of the customers. The 30 per cent of the market in the hands of SingTel and the others would not support a A$15 billion national network build.

The government might legislate to ensure that Terria’s FTTN is the only FTTN, by prohibiting anyone else from installing neighbourhood nodes, but would it – could it – force Telstra to buy access from the network? No.

Telstra is now talking about upgrading and extending its 15-year old HFC network and also using the 3G wireless network, so it doesn’t have to buy from Terria or anyone else. Maybe it would buy some access, but only to fill in the gaps.

So it comes down to whether the government’s A$4.7 billion would be enough to support a Terria network that didn’t get Telstra’s traffic, and that depends on the return the government wants on the money.

If it’s just the government bond rate in return for taking equity risk, that might do it, but it’s a complicated funding equation.

The trouble is that no one knows what the government wants, which is why they’re so nervous in Singapore.

They thought they understood Australian politics last year but found they did not. Now they have to take another punt on it, but they’re not, by nature, punters.

 
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AK_Francis
Supreme
26-Jun-2008 01:24     
 
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Yells: "Happy go lucky, cheers."
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 Alert Admin 		global sentiment seems good now, this burger will lift a bit higher 2morow but may invite profit take in the afternoon or Fri.
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winsontkl
Elite
25-Jun-2008 22:17     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Wow...have we reach the bottom??? Today cheong 8 cents....
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zhuge_liang
Supreme
25-Jun-2008 00:34     
 
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 Alert Admin 		SingTel's 3G iPhone deal could help it hang on to customers despite Singapore's move to mobile number portability (MNP), says Credit Suisse; reiterates Outperform call, unchanged $4.20 target price. Broker says SingTel theoretically most exposed to MNP as it has entrenched dominance in postpaid sector, but agreement with Apple to launch 3G iPhone by year end may help it retain higher-than-average data revenue per user. Adds, iPhone launch for associates in India, Indonesia, Philippines may also bring boost; "iPhone could also finally deliver a tangible benefit from SingTel's extensive regional diversification."
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winsontkl
Elite
24-Jun-2008 21:56     
 
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 Alert Admin 		But sentiments now taking a sudden change...
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yunglee
Member
24-Jun-2008 20:24     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Singtel released annual report... result seems fine.
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AK_Francis
Supreme
24-Jun-2008 01:08     
 
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Yells: "Happy go lucky, cheers."
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 Alert Admin 		if u wish, get 6.9 div loh.
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winsontkl
Elite
23-Jun-2008 21:57     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Today down 6 cents with 31m transacted....BB offloading??? Or is it a good time to load up???
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winsontkl
Elite
21-Jun-2008 19:08     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Noticed the recent fluctuation of STel price with a downward trend and high volume ..... might be a method for BB to offload ....any TA expert to share their view???
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Naproxen
Veteran
21-Jun-2008 16:27     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Come Monday we will see it down again. Good time to stock up again.
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AK_Francis
Supreme
21-Jun-2008 01:43     
 
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observation, normally after closed market, any up trend on stock is buying up, by BBs. For huge lot its genuine one but for few lots it could be speculation for room for earning for next trading day.
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darylwj
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20-Jun-2008 23:41     
 
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Thanks Blastoff for your help in explaining. I'm afraid I still can't see it. Looking at the transaction history below is all I can see.

17:05:01 3.770 2,988,000 X
16:59:59 3.770 4,000 Sell Down
16:59:57 3.770 2,000 Sell Down
16:59:57 3.770 2,000 Sell Down
16:59:54 3.770 2,000 Sell Down
16:59:43 3.770 10,000 Sell Down

And the list goes on all the way to the opening trade. I'm using POEMS and did not subscribe to the market depth so I can't see the 50 most recent queues for BU/SD. I guess probably there is a limit that I can see and analyse on the data.



Blastoff      ( Date: 20-Jun-2008 20:40) Posted:

You can't actually tell based on this information. The only way to know is during the 5 minutes after 5pm in which you can see the amount and quantity of sell down and buy up.

darylwj      ( Date: 20-Jun-2008 17:20) Posted:



There is is transaction done at 17:05hr. How to tell whether it is a buy up or sell down? Anyone sifu can advice? Thanks. :) 



17:05:01 		3.770 2,988,000 X


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Blastoff
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20-Jun-2008 20:40     
 
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 Alert Admin 		You can't actually tell based on this information. The only way to know is during the 5 minutes after 5pm in which you can see the amount and quantity of sell down and buy up.

darylwj      ( Date: 20-Jun-2008 17:20) Posted:



There is is transaction done at 17:05hr. How to tell whether it is a buy up or sell down? Anyone sifu can advice? Thanks. :) 



17:05:01 		3.770 2,988,000 X

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darylwj
Member
20-Jun-2008 17:20     
 
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There is is transaction done at 17:05hr. How to tell whether it is a buy up or sell down? Anyone sifu can advice? Thanks. :) 



17:05:01 		3.770 2,988,000 X
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ywyeap
Member
20-Jun-2008 16:14     
 
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 Alert Admin 		What trigger this counter to Chiong today?
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zhuge_liang
Supreme
20-Jun-2008 00:42     
 
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 Alert Admin 		UOB-KayHian keeps Neutral call on Singapore's telecommunications sector; broker says while all three telcos guided for stable EBITDA earnings in 2008, implementation of number mobile portability June 13, Starhub's recently launched promotion to add new postpaid subscribers may increase margin pressure on sector. Repeats Hold call, $3.76 target price on SingTel.
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newgal
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19-Jun-2008 16:38     
 
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Hi H,

How much did you get this for? :o)



HLJHLJ      ( Date: 19-Jun-2008 15:55) Posted:

I'm happy i'm holding this counter. No regret though dropped slightly. In times like this, it is still in very good level. High oil has no much effect on Singtel? Maybe. In future, due to high prices, teleworking, teleconferencing etc will benefit telecommunication companies. Sending electrical signals do not need much power. However, economic slowdown will affect them indirectly, if recession is severe. Lets hope the economy to churn again.

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SupremeA
Veteran
19-Jun-2008 16:32     
 
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 Alert Admin 		high fuel costs good for telcos. Less biz travel, more biz calls = more revenues
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