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Latest Forum Topics / Midas    Last:0.192 --  Post Reply
Midas
ruanlai
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17-May-2013 10:30     
 
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All here talk like god.......

 
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Stormer
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17-May-2013 10:29     
 
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Date Open Price Target Price Upside/Downside Price Call Source News
16/05/2013 0.475 0.54 +0.065 (13.68%) BUY OCBC Price Target News
16/05/2013 0.475 0.75 +0.275 (57.89%) BUY Maybank Kim Eng Price Target News
15/05/2013 0.46 0.595 +0.135 (29.35%) BUY OCBC Price Target News
15/05/2013 0.46 0.60 +0.14 (30.43%) BUY DBS Vickers Price Target News
15/05/2013 0.46 0.70 +0.24 (52.17%) BUY CIMB Price Target News
13/05/2013 0.49 0.595 +0.105 (21.43%) BUY OCBC Price Target News
25/04/2013 0.50 0.70 +0.20 (40.00%) BUY CIMB Price Target News


From www.i3investor.com

For our reference.

Strange and interesting counter. Either huat big big or lose until teng kor (remove  pants). Trade with  your own risk, take care. 

Not vested.
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Tomique
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17-May-2013 09:40     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Thanks.   Was thinking to switch same price with Dukang, but it has gone to 49.5 cents. Too slow to switch, so waiting for opportunity when the two are with same pricing.  

Huatahearnmoney      ( Date: 17-May-2013 09:30) Posted:

Woah... Bro tom.. This counter also? Lol...
I think this counter, can run, just run. Lol unless you can hold until Q3/Q4

Tomique      ( Date: 17-May-2013 09:24) Posted:

May like to go to 51 cent to close the gap before deciding up or down, wehehehe
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Huatahearnmoney
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17-May-2013 09:30     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Woah... Bro tom.. This counter also? Lol...
I think this counter, can run, just run. Lol unless you can hold until Q3/Q4

Tomique      ( Date: 17-May-2013 09:24) Posted:

May like to go to 51 cent to close the gap before deciding up or down, wehehehe!

cheongsl      ( Date: 17-May-2013 07:17) Posted:

$0.46 is the 200EMA currently, if unable to hover above this might be going into a long terms decline
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Tomique
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17-May-2013 09:24     
 
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 Alert Admin 		May like to go to 51 cent to close the gap before deciding up or down, wehehehe!

cheongsl      ( Date: 17-May-2013 07:17) Posted:

$0.46 is the 200EMA currently, if unable to hover above this might be going into a long terms decline.

Peter_Pan      ( Date: 16-May-2013 21:07) Posted:

After the recent developments in the China railway industry, there appears to be more cons than pros. If the price can sustain above 0.445 by this month then it will appear stable, otherwise may see 0.38.
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cheongsl
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17-May-2013 07:17     
 
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 Alert Admin 		$0.46 is the 200EMA currently, if unable to hover above this might be going into a long terms decline.

Peter_Pan      ( Date: 16-May-2013 21:07) Posted:

After the recent developments in the China railway industry, there appears to be more cons than pros. If the price can sustain above 0.445 by this month then it will appear stable, otherwise may see 0.38.
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cheongsl
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17-May-2013 07:11     
 
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 Alert Admin 		If you want to hope you can only hope DBS vickers or CIMB where their % is increasing, but unfortunately they are not substantial shareholder, any change in % they don't need to report, thus 2months ago holding might not be supportive that they are not distributing now.

cheongsl      ( Date: 17-May-2013 06:53) Posted:

Maybank Kim Eng  reduce it percentage from 0.98% last year to 0.91% two months ago, do you think they are accumulating? But you check their price target increase from $0.48 to $0.75.

Blanchard      ( Date: 16-May-2013 21:15) Posted:



Huatahearnmoney,

Two months ago, MAYBANK KIM ENG SECURITIES PTE LTD was Midas top 19 shareholder holding 0.91%. Hope a Midas price raise would eventually be realized as expected...



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cheongsl
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17-May-2013 07:02     
 
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We will see the bond issue in 23 of may  by railway corporate. The goods news of this bond is this bond is still clasified under government support, the bad news is the bank borrowing, and bond purchase is reaching the limit, will they pick up some more, and will the public sector support the bond.

 

中 铁 总 下 周 发 行 200亿 中 票 明 确 为 政 府 支 持 债 券

　 昨 日 ， 中 国 铁 路 总 公 司 (下 称 “中 铁 总 ”)宣 布 ， 定 于 5月 23日 在 银 行 间 债 券 市 场 发 行 200亿 元 中 期 票 据 ， 期 限 为 5年 。 这 是 铁 道 部 改 制 以 来 ， 新 成 立 的 中 铁 总 首 次 发 债 融 资 ， 亦 是 铁 道 债 全 面 升 格 为 政 府 支 持 机 构 债 券 之 后 ， 首 次 亮 相 银 行 间 债 券 市 场 。

　 　 本 期 债 券 由 工 商 银 行 和 中 国 银 行 担 任 联 席 主 承 销 商 ， 通 过 银 行 间 债 券 市 场 债 券 发 行 系 统 公 开 招 标 ， 采 取 余 额 包 销 方 式 。 经 联 合 资 信 综 合 评 定 ， 发 行 人 主 体 长 期 信 用 级 别 AAA 级 ， 本 期 中 期 票 据 信 用 级 别 AAA级 。

　 据 披 露 ， 截 至 目 前 ， 中 铁 总 及 下 属 企 业 已 发 行 尚 未 到 期 的 债 务 融 资 工 具 总 计 为 7641亿 元 ， 其 中 铁 路 建 设 债 券 合 计 金 额 为 6220亿 元 、 公 司 债 90亿 元 、 中 期 票 据 合 计 金 额 为 910亿 元 、 短 期 融 资 债 券 合 计 金 额 为 421亿 元 。

　 　 本 报 记 者 从 中 央 国 债 登 记 结 算 公 司 了 解 到 ， 从 本 月 起 ， 2013年 以 来 中 铁 总 发 行 的 债 券 以 及 原 铁 道 部 发 行 的 所 有 债 券 ， 均 被 划 入 政 府 支 持 机 构 债 券 ， 总 额 高 达 7010亿 元 (不 含 短 融 和 下 属 企 业 债 券 )， 进 一 步 强 化 了 政 府 信 用 。 不 过 ， 时 至 今 日 ， 中 铁 总 与 相 关 监 管 部 门 ， 并 未 就 此 事 进 行 公 告 说 明 。

　 　 然 而 ， 对 投 资 者 而 言 ， 中 铁 总 的 基 本 面 依 然 堪 忧 。 财 报 显 示 ， 截 至 今 年 3月 末 ， 中 铁 总 经 审 计 的 汇 总 资 产 总 计 为 4.56万 亿 元 ， 总 负 债 2.84万 亿 元 ； 一 季 度 ， 中 铁 总 利 润 总 额 为 100.78亿 元 ， 若 扣 除 156.07亿 元 税 后 建 设 基 金 和 14.50亿 元 所 得 税 后 ， 则 净 亏 69.79亿 元 。

　 　 本 期 中 票 募 集 说 明 书 指 出 ， 未 来 随 着 铁 路 “十 二 五 ”发 展 规 划 的 逐 步 实 施 ， 中 铁 总 资 产 负 债 率 仍 可 能 进 一 步 上 升 ， 存 在 资 本 支 出 进 一 步 增 加 的 风 险 。 中 铁 总 计 划 今 年 安 排 固 定 资 产 投 资 6500亿 元 。

　 　 面 对 居 高 不 下 的 投 资 压 力 ， 中 铁 总 在 筹 资 方 面 亦 “压 力 山 大 ”。 一 个 至 关 重 要 的 原 因 是 ， 商 业 银 行 对 铁 道 部 的 单 一 客 户 贷 款 比 例 已 经 接 近 甚 至 超 过 15%， 导 致 超 标 银 行 对 铁 道 部 提 供 贷 款 或 购 买 其 债 券 已 经 面 临 上 限 约 束 。
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cheongsl
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17-May-2013 06:53     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Maybank Kim Eng  reduce it percentage from 0.98% last year to 0.91% two months ago, do you think they are accumulating? But you check their price target increase from $0.48 to $0.75.

Blanchard      ( Date: 16-May-2013 21:15) Posted:



Huatahearnmoney,

Two months ago, MAYBANK KIM ENG SECURITIES PTE LTD was Midas top 19 shareholder holding 0.91%. Hope a Midas price raise would eventually be realized as expected...


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Blanchard
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16-May-2013 21:15     
 
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Huatahearnmoney,

Two months ago, MAYBANK KIM ENG SECURITIES PTE LTD was Midas top 19 shareholder holding 0.91%. Hope a Midas price raise would eventually be realized as expected...

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Peter_Pan
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16-May-2013 21:07     
 
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 Alert Admin 		After the recent developments in the China railway industry, there appears to be more cons than pros. If the price can sustain above 0.445 by this month then it will appear stable, otherwise may see 0.38.
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Huatahearnmoney
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16-May-2013 20:57     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Very kelong leh their call... Lololol... I heard that they buy in alot to keep... that's why TP so high...

paul1688      ( Date: 16-May-2013 20:53) Posted:

Kim Eng has an even more bullish TP

Investment Theme in tact. Midas reported a net loss of RMB5m for 1QFY13 as guided by the company last weekend. Our investment theme for Midas remains to be a bet on improving order flow in 2013 and a turnaround in earnings in 2014. We don’t expect too much further downside from here because share price has reacted negatively post company’s profit warning last weekend and is now trading at book value. We maintain BUY and target price of SGD0.75, pegged to 1.25x FY14 book value. Key catalyst for the stock is continuous order wins and the resumption of high speed train tender in China.

Earnings still suffering as expected. 1Q13 revenue dropped by 12% yoy to RMB202m due to the slowdown in the PRC railway industry. Bottom line declined to RMB5m loss from RMB15m gain last year. The main reason for the loss is RMB4m loss from NPRC, a JV company between Midas and CSR. Current low utilization of only 40% also increased per unit production cost which in turn lowered the margin. Weak earnings delivery will continue in 2Q13 at least.

Key takeaways from conference call. 1) The management expects RMB400-500m order win from metro sector and similar amount of order win from overseas market. This implies further RMB500-600m order win for the rest of the year on the top of current RMB650m order book. 2) On the high speed rail sector, management remains optimistic on the likelihood of the high speed train tender resumption in 2H13. It will be a significant catalyst for the stock if it materializes.

BUY maintained. We reiterate our BUY call on Midas and keep our target price of SGD0.75. Midas share price is largely driven by contract wins and YTD Midas has won more than RMB370m worth contracts. Although earnings will continue to suffer in the short term, we expect a better order flow this year, which will drive a turnaround in 2014 earnings. Midas is trading around book value currently, which in our view provides a floor to share price. 28.0x FY13 PER looks not cheap but if Midas can manage to turnaround the business in the next two years, FY14/15 PER will look reasonable.
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paul1688
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16-May-2013 20:53     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Kim Eng has an even more bullish TP

Investment Theme in tact. Midas reported a net loss of RMB5m for 1QFY13 as guided by the company last weekend. Our investment theme for Midas remains to be a bet on improving order flow in 2013 and a turnaround in earnings in 2014. We don’t expect too much further downside from here because share price has reacted negatively post company’s profit warning last weekend and is now trading at book value. We maintain BUY and target price of SGD0.75, pegged to 1.25x FY14 book value. Key catalyst for the stock is continuous order wins and the resumption of high speed train tender in China.

Earnings still suffering as expected. 1Q13 revenue dropped by 12% yoy to RMB202m due to the slowdown in the PRC railway industry. Bottom line declined to RMB5m loss from RMB15m gain last year. The main reason for the loss is RMB4m loss from NPRC, a JV company between Midas and CSR. Current low utilization of only 40% also increased per unit production cost which in turn lowered the margin. Weak earnings delivery will continue in 2Q13 at least.

Key takeaways from conference call. 1) The management expects RMB400-500m order win from metro sector and similar amount of order win from overseas market. This implies further RMB500-600m order win for the rest of the year on the top of current RMB650m order book. 2) On the high speed rail sector, management remains optimistic on the likelihood of the high speed train tender resumption in 2H13. It will be a significant catalyst for the stock if it materializes.

BUY maintained. We reiterate our BUY call on Midas and keep our target price of SGD0.75. Midas share price is largely driven by contract wins and YTD Midas has won more than RMB370m worth contracts. Although earnings will continue to suffer in the short term, we expect a better order flow this year, which will drive a turnaround in 2014 earnings. Midas is trading around book value currently, which in our view provides a floor to share price. 28.0x FY13 PER looks not cheap but if Midas can manage to turnaround the business in the next two years, FY14/15 PER will look reasonable.
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cheongsl
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16-May-2013 19:37     
 
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Today OCBC issue another BUY call.

Midas Holdings' 1Q13 net loss attributable to shareholders of CNY4.9m (1Q12: PATMI of CNY15.3m) was larger than our forecast for a net loss of CNY3.2m. This was attributed largely to a wider-than-estimated share of loss of CNY4.0m from its associated company, NPRT. Looking ahead, we believe that strength of Midas' recovery will depend heavily on the resumption of new high-speed railway (HSR) tenders. As the timeline of this is still uncertain, we believe that a more significant recovery in Midas' financial performance would likely come in FY14, versus our previous FY13 expectations. Paring our FY13 revenue and PATMI estimates by 9.7% and 59.1%, respectively, and lowering our valuation peg from 1.2x to 1.1x FY13F P/B, we derive a fair value estimate of S$0.54 (previously S$0.595). But we maintain our BUY rating as we expect the eventual HSR tenders resumption and subsequent contract wins by Midas to provide a re-rating catalyst for the stock.

The report really ????

It mention 2013 Q1 loss is mainly due to wider-than-estimated  share of loss from its associated company?? But 2012 Q1 loss due associated is 4.625million and 2013 Q1 is 4.049million, isn't 2013 Q1 a reduce in loss from its associated company?

Push back the recovery to 2014, from initial 2013 1H to 2013 2H now is 2014, clearly a distributing around 50cts.

 

Midas Holdings (Midas) has issued a negative profit guidance prior to its upcoming 1Q13 results release, saying that it expects to report an unaudited net loss. This is mainly due to lower revenue and gross profit margin given the change in product mix and weaker utilisation rates, as well as higher operating expenses and finance costs and a share of loss from its associated company, Nanjing SR Puzhen Rail Transport (NPRT). This profit guidance comes as no surprise to us as we had forecasted Midas to record a net loss of CNY3.2m in 1Q13. We still expect Midas to stage a recovery in 2H13, but the strength of this recovery will be dependent on the developments in China's high-speed railway sector. Midas will report its 1Q13 results on 14 May after trading hours, while an analyst conference call has been scheduled the day after. We will provide more updates then. For now, we have a BUY rating and S$0.595 fair value estimate on the stock.

  We view Midas Holdings (Midas) as a proxy play to the economic recovery story of China in 2013, which would be driven in part by rising urbanisation and railway investments. The latter could amount to CNY600-650b, according to media reports. We believe that China's Ministry of Railways could resume high-speed passenger train car contract tenders in 1Q13. We expect this to translate into order wins for Midas from its customers in 1H13, with deliveries possibly happening from 2H13. Despite Midas' recent share price surge, we believe that more upside potential exists. This is premised on the improved optimism of the industry recovery prospects, which has led to a sector re-rating. Coupled with a more " risk-on" approach adopted by the market, we raise our fair value estimate on Midas from S$0.50 to S$0.60 as we ascribe a higher FY13F P/B peg of 1.2x (previously 1x). Maintain BUY.

cheongsl      ( Date: 15-May-2013 21:48) Posted:



You know the most buy call issue for the last half a year is OCBC. But you can check the annual report of 2011 and 2012, you will find that OCBC have reduce their holding of Midas from 1.53% to 1.10%, why reduce when you issue a buy call???

S/N Name Top 20 holder for Midas 12Mar2013 %holder 2012 Holder Rank 12Mar2012 %holder
1 DBS NOMINEES PTE LTD 7.61% 3 6.80%
2 CHEW HWA KWANG PARTRICK 6.68% 4 6.68%
3 CITIBANK NOMINEES SINGAPORE PTE LTD 6.10% 2 8.81%
4 BANK OF EAST ASIA NOMINEES PTE LTD 5.13% 5 5.09%
5 CHEN WEIPING 4.22% 10 1.59%
6 HSBC (SINGAPORE) NOMINEES PTE LTD 3.12% 1 9.33%
7 DBSN SERVICES PTE LTD 2.67% 9 1.69%
8 RAFFLES NOMINEES (PTE) LTD 2.21% 15 0.97%
9 UNITED OVERSEAS BANK NOMINEES PTE LTD 2.17% 7 2.06%
10 PHILLIP SECURITIES PTE LTD 2.07% 8 1.72%
11 SING INVESTMENTS & FINANCE NOMINEES (PTE) LTD 1.48%    
12 HKSCC NOMINEES LIMITED 1.35% 6 2.95%
13 CIMB SECURITIES SINGAPORE PTE LTD 1.32% 12 1.29%
14 TOMMIE GOH THIAM POH 1.18% 13 1.18%
15 OCBC SECURITIES PRIVATE LTD 1.10% 11 1.53%
16 DBS VICKERS SECURITIES (S) PTE LTD 1.05% 17 0.72%
17 CITIBANK CONSUMER NOMINEES PTE LTD 1.01% 18 0.57%
18 UOB KAY HIAN PTE LTD 0.99% 16 0.90%
19 MAYBANK KIM ENG SECURITIES PTE LTD 0.91% 14 0.98%
20 BANK OF SINGAPORE NOMINEES PTE LTD 0.79%    
  OCBC NOMINEES SINGAPORE PTE LTD   19 0.53%
  HONG LEONG FINANCE NOMINEES PTE LTD   20 0.53%
53.16% 55.92%


EddieLeong      ( Date: 15-May-2013 21:34) Posted:

The buy call really base on spectuate 2H major contracts win and china push on high speed rail. What if things don't work out the way it expected? Even if it win contract, the revenue may not able to recognised so fast.

Something to think about!
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Peter_Pan
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15-May-2013 22:16     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Lets wait and see if it will test 0.445 again this month..
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cheongsl
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15-May-2013 22:08     
 
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Hi oldflyingfox,

Do you really think the railway industries can revitalise after it go public? Without the government support and guarantee  do you think the bank will continue to finance with cheap lending? The 2.8trillion debt own by the railway corporation will be a big burdent for it to continue to have new development, I believe in short terms they will try to reduce cost and increase revenue. As for new orders for highspeed rail, I don't think it will be exercise.

Below is the railway corporate report for first quarter release in April this year, they are making a loss of 6.8billion.

铁 路 总 公 司 一 季 度 巨 亏 68亿 货 运 提 价 效 果 有 限

因 铁 道 部 重 组 ， 于 3月 成 立 的 中 国 铁 路 总 公 司 近 日 交 出 首 份 “成 绩 单 ”： 一 季 度 净 亏 损 68.8亿 元 ， 负 债 总 额 为 2.84万 亿 元 。

4月 26日 ， 中 国 货 币 网 发 布 了 原 铁 道 部 2012年 审 计 报 告 ， 原 铁 道 部 总 资 产 为 44877.00亿 元 ， 负 债 合 计 为 27925.62亿 元 ， 负 债 率 达 62.2%。 报 告 显 示 ， 原 铁 道 部 在 2012年 实 现 税 后 利 润 1.96亿 元 ， 比 2011年 3100万 元 增 长 532%。

oldflyingfox      ( Date: 15-May-2013 20:30) Posted:

I think it was mainly related to the Chinese gov restructuring the railway dept after the high speed train accident.

cheongsl      ( Date: 15-May-2013 20:16) Posted:



Have take a look at Q1 2013 Financial statement, the situation have get worst.

The inventories have increased. Based on first quarter revenue, it take almost 1 year for them to clear off the inventor.

Inventories $787,675.0
Revenue $202,391.0
Inventories/ Revenue 3.9 Quarter


Trade and other receiver have also increase quite significantly. At current level, it already more then 1year.

Trade and other receiver $1,076,080.0
Revenue $202,391.0
Receiver/Revenue 5.3 Quarter


Isn't current asset suppose to clear within one year, anything above one year should be classified as bad debt?? or even reclassified under long term asset as account receivable.

For the Payable portion it also increase, but taking the ratio is slightly more then 1/2 years.

Trade and other payable $411,070.0
Cost of sales $151,318.0
Payable/Cost of sales 2.7 Quarter


Why did they pay their supplier within 2.7 quarter, but get the payment from their customer within more then 5.3quarter?

Why did they buyin their goods and fabricate and keep it in their storage for nearly 1year??

What does this means, they buy the material and fabricates until money receive is 5.3+3.9 = 9.2quarters = 2.3years.

They get the material and pay the supplier within 2.7quarter = 0.7years. Thus money did not comein within 1.6years???????

Based on the cash flow statement and financial statement, which we can deduce that 76.8% of the revenue does not translate into payment.

Change in inventories & Trade receiver $155,345.0
Revenue $202,391.0
Change in I & TR / Revenue 76.8%


Change in Trade and other payable $43,936.0
Cost of sales $151,318.0
Change in T & OP/Cost of sales 29.0%


But they only retain 29% of the payment to their supplier??
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Peter_Pan
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15-May-2013 22:00     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Today's bounce is perhaps a dead cat bounce to trap retailers...
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cheongsl
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15-May-2013 21:56     
 
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Now I know your chinese is also lossy too.

对 联 营 企 业 和 合 营 企 业 的 投 资 收 益 , this is the column talking about the subsidiary profit/loss. The financial report show is a +ve again, but Midas show is -ve so contradicting.

ynnek1267      ( Date: 15-May-2013 21:29) Posted:



http://www.csrgc.com.cn/manager/uploadfiles/1367024505846.pdf

The JV company is one of the subsidiary under CSR, what the subsidiary do is to manufacture MRT train. The financial report is never transparent but only show the overall CSR performance. Even in 2012 full year report, can only see the revenue of the subsidiary but not the profit.

This is china company, under government. There will not be any transparent. Wahahahahahah!!!!!!!!!!!

Peter_Pan      ( Date: 15-May-2013 21:13) Posted:

Is there any way to read midas' jv company's financial report? Loss sharing with it is another drag also. Not very transparent..
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New123
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15-May-2013 21:56     
 
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 Alert Admin 		precisely !with the same price i will go for Ums that gives 8-10% yields . Nav of 52 cents ,zero debts .

EddieLeong      ( Date: 15-May-2013 21:34) Posted:

The buy call really base on spectuate 2H major contracts win and china push on high speed rail. What if things don't work out the way it expected? Even if it win contract, the revenue may not able to recognised so fast.

Something to think about!
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Peter_Pan
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15-May-2013 21:52     
 
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 Alert Admin 		The 2Q2013 earnings results likely another negative quarter at the rate the situation is developing.
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