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Prepare for risk of double-dip recession
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cheongwee
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11-Sep-2009 00:50
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freeme...did u miss the train in Mar this year???...say thanks to your laziness...otherwise, you would have become another TA expert that miss the train.. can you do a TA and FA for me for Jade and centillion...pls..i am vested here.. |
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buylist
Senior |
11-Sep-2009 00:47
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Double dip risk is there but Feds would be careful not to rise the interest rate too fast to cause foreclosures. Those ppl who take up mortgage loan between 2005 to 2007 have the HARM rate fixed between 2 to 5 years and come 2010, these large chunk would have to go for floating rate. If these groups are not healthy it would trigger next round of foreclosures. The would lead to loans turn bad again, CDS redemption, and all. The cycle repeats again. Do not trust any financial advisors. Just check their portfolio. Most of young and inexperience and act like a saleman selling toilet paper. How many years of experience they have. Not to belittle them, most cant even understand finance and some dont even know the trend. Calling buy when something is falling and vice versa. They just go for product that makes them the most bucks. Even those very very big banks are like that. Gotten quarrel with them from different investment position. They dont even dare to come back after few months cos all the calls they make for me got south. I never trust them..... May be go and meet up and drink kopi and talk c... |
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cheongwee
Elite |
11-Sep-2009 00:45
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look at ferro and celestial...TA -analyst darling....alway call ppl to buy....what happen??? why buy blues? and when you buy them? is important... why blues? they are transparent, their balance sheet can be trusted...and they are really too big to fail( that does not mean they wont fail, but very very unlikely)..SIA, Capitaland, SPH..can they go under??? when you buy them?..just at cirses of in a crises ,,,even now..also can...you are buying at one of the low....but if you bought at the height of 2007...then u wait a long time to see your $$$..but at least. you got dividend, but no capital or min gain...imagine if u bought SGX at $15 ..when will it get there??it will but a long time... now those who bought penny and mid cap are happy...got $$$, but very soon it will be history again. |
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richtan
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11-Sep-2009 00:44
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hahaha, I think I should take a leaf from u n learn to be lazy so less brickbats from those TA detractors saying "TA is lousy, TA is rubbish .. blah...blah...blah.." n be just a silent observer, but it is just not my style as I like to hope tat by my postings, some fellow knowledgeable TA forumers can exchange pointers with me so tat I can discover those blindspots tat I failed to notice.
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kellychang
Master |
11-Sep-2009 00:31
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yes...so now...i dun buy any... i wait one good channce to buy... i believe chance is coming soon....
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freeme
Elite |
11-Sep-2009 00:30
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Ya.. sucking our hard earn money.. making use of our emotion gov will lock our $ to part it to invest even during that lousy period when crisis just started. Then the worst part is, u throw whatever u have into it, even when market bottom, u cannot even bottom up bec ur account is under 20k liao.. see opportunity also lan lan.. suck thumb
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kellychang
Master |
11-Sep-2009 00:30
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yes....same situation... so now...i just wait one chance then to huat big... well...of course this times, i will just go into blues...that is... i can pm u if my shifu asks me to buy when the timing is good...
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cheongwee
Elite |
11-Sep-2009 00:30
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i am sadden by ppl buying stock that is lousy fundamentally...what penny are u holding?..u must realise that if the situation get worse come next yr...penny are in danger of going under.. even mid cap are not spare...look at those reit and trust..ppl are buying saying the yield is solid 20% 30%..u thk those fund selling are stupid...they know the risk of holding these stock..if they cannot get refinance, they will be in deep shit...but some say they got big sponsor...but if in crises even their sponsor also cannot cover their own backside... i suggest hand off reit for now, since they are not blues,,,save captialmall...but that is still no that good....i suggest sell to strength your penny stock...never mind the lose..it is better than zero.. you got chance to recover your losess...be patient..opportunity aplenty...
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learningtheropes
Member |
11-Sep-2009 00:25
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u know kelly?im exactly in the same situation as u haha..my pennies bought from 2007 up till now still down by more than 50%..and I am v cautious now..keep looking but dun dare to buy haha..also working and no time to run on big news.. I also hate my FA so much..last time used to trust him. Last yr ard apr, he say cpf got min cap of 20,000 cannot invest then must hurry up invest before gahmen set the cap..then i go and invest lump sum of watever cpf i have left in..guess wat happened come oct 2008? my cpf dropped so much..and my FA say dun worry keep looooong term SURE earn..ya i know sure earn but i seriously dun think it will earn as much as if i keep in my cpf and earn interest for like 5-8 yrs? the opportunity cost is high, coz gahmen actually give quite gd interest for cpf..FAs are just bullshits..
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richtan
Supreme |
11-Sep-2009 00:20
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Wen Says China ‘Cannot’ Yet Pull Back on Stimulus (Update2) By Bloomberg News Sept. 10 (Bloomberg) -- China’s Premier Wen Jiabao signaled he will maintain unprecedented government spending to drive a recovery from the slowest expansion in almost a decade. “China’s economic rebound is unstable, unbalanced and not yet solid,” Wen said today in a speech at the World Economic Forum in Dalian, a city in northeastern China. “We cannot and will not change the direction of our policies when the conditions aren’t appropriate.” Wen’s remarks reflect a commitment last week from the world’s biggest nations to maintain unprecedented fiscal and monetary measures to secure a recovery from the deepest postwar recession. The comments also may help reassure investors that a slowdown in new loans won’t derail China’s rebound. “The worst has passed, now it’s about whether China can maintain the strong momentum of a recovery that’s primarily been driven by policy stimulus,” said Wang Qing, chief Asia economist for Morgan Stanley in Hong Kong. “Very weak external demand is the key concern.” Nine months of falling exports, overcapacity in manufacturing and elevated unemployment have restrained the recovery generated by record lending in the first half of the year and a 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus package. Stock Market The Shanghai Composite Index plunged into a bear market, or a decline of at least 20 percent, on Aug. 31 amid concern that reduced new lending in the second half could damp growth. The index has since pared the slide to 16 percent, and remains up 37 percent from a year ago. Stimulus steps have “yielded initial results,” arresting a downturn in economic growth, and the government will maintain a moderately loose monetary policy and a “proactive” fiscal stance, Wen said. He cautioned that some stimulus measures will “fade” and others will take time to become effective, he said. Risks for the economy include asset-price inflation, after a record $1.1 trillion of new loans in the first six months. Bank of China Ltd. Vice President Zhu Min said in an interview in Dalian today that ample liquidity has caused “bubbles” in stocks, commodities and real estate. “The potential risk is that a lot of liquidity goes to the asset market,” Zhu said. “So you see asset bubbles in commodities, stocks and real estate, not only in China, but everywhere.” Inflation Risks While China’s consumer prices have fallen for most of this year, Wen said policy makers are on alert for inflation risks. The government said yesterday that the employment situation remains “grave,” underscoring the need to promote economic growth to create jobs and preserve social stability as the Communist Party prepares to celebrate 60 years of rule on Oct. 1. While China’s gross domestic product is 70 times bigger than when Deng Xiaoping endorsed free-market policies in 1978, widening income disparities, corruption, pollution and ethnic tensions threaten to foster unrest. Five people died last week in protests in Urumqi, where ethnic Uighurs and Han Chinese are at odds, following unrest in July which killed almost 200 people. The government’s goals are social harmony and stability and “steady and relatively fast” growth, the premier said today, adding that the government is “taking all possible steps to expand employment.” Rebalanced Economy China also faces the challenge of reducing the economy’s dependence on investment and exports for growth and boosting services and domestic consumption. Achieving that goal could reduce global imbalances in spending and saving that some economists blame for helping cause the global financial crisis. Domestic demand is playing a bigger role in China’s economy, Wen said today. The economy accelerated in the second quarter, expanding 7.9 percent, and economists forecast faster growth for the rest of the year. World Bank President Robert Zoellick said Sept. 2 that the nation’s expansion has aided trading partners and increased the chance of a global rebound. “Asia is recovering faster from the economic downturn than other regions, in part thanks to China’s gravitational pull,” European Union Trade Commissioner Catherine Ashton said in Beijing yesterday. ‘Light of Dawn’ While cautioning of “many uncertainties” for the global economy, Wen said he saw “the light of dawn” and called for the green shoots of recovery to be tended through coordinated moves by world leaders. “Confidence is even more precious” than gold or money, he said. Finance ministers and central bank governors from the Group of 20 emerging and developed nations meeting last week in London vowed to sustain efforts to secure a global recovery. “We will continue to implement decisively our necessary financial-support measures and expansionary monetary and fiscal policies,” they said in a joint statement. China’s premier also today called for a global fight against protectionism in trade. A resurgence of China’s property market, rising auto sales and the fastest expansion of manufacturing in 16 months in August have added to signs that the Chinese economy recovery is maintaining momentum. House Prices China’s house prices in 70 cities rose 2 percent in August, double the gain in July, after sales and investment climbed, the statistics bureau said today. General Motors Co., the largest overseas automaker in China, more than doubled sales in the nation last month to 152,365 vehicles. The government is due to announce August figures for trade, industrial production, fixed-asset investment, retail sales and inflation tomorrow. China’s gross domestic product may increase 9.5 percent in 2010 after an 8.3 percent gain in 2009, the smallest in eight years, according to a Bloomberg survey of 22 economists conducted the week ending Aug. 28. Investors in recent weeks indicated doubt that the recovery will be sustained as exports slide and the government seeks to rein in overcapacity in industries such as steel and cement. For Related News and Information: Most-read stories on China: MNI CHINA 1W <GO> Most-read China economy stories: TNI CHECO MOSTREAD BN <GO> For top economic news: TOP ECO <GO> For top China news: TOP CHINA <GO> Credit crunch page: WCC <GO> Last Updated: September 10, 2009 08:33 EDT
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freeme
Elite |
11-Sep-2009 00:12
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I can see you put in alot of effort in posting ur chart... the reason why i dun do is bec im too lazy..
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thomas_low
Veteran |
11-Sep-2009 00:07
Yells: "Gong Xi Money Made" |
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Today HSBC call me up, a little girl on the phone wanted me to go to my local branch to see her, so she could help me plan my finance, she say I have lots of money not getting good interest, maybe she will share with me how to grow my cash, saying my profile is low risk so go for some low risk product. I asked her you want to sell me some HSBC product, she say no, haha, then why is she so kind to want to see me? Maybe I am good looking or sexy (from database she cant even guess how ugly I am), anyway I think the garmen (yes I know you are reading this forum) need to have rules to only allow serious experienced and client interest focused and qualified with good up to date technical skills and current affairs to be allowed to practice financial planning and should all be fee based and not commissioned based. Of course I sell you the product which give me maximum commission even if this is a dead cat, this is GIVEN ! I can go to do a course in finance or economics and call myself an expert with zero years of investing of own money. The uncle in the coffeeshop who has little education told me one thing, advisor should only tell you the news he gets, the strategies available and the options available to you. You can make up your mind based on educated guess. If he advises me to buy A, and he also buy A of the same amount then I believe him. I dont mind giving him half of my gains after that provided he sell the same time as me too based on his advice. So tha Bank should have such policy, get your customer to buy and match it to prove and put money where the mouth is. Easr if the client make money, pay if the customer lose money. This is the only way to show good will advice. So the same applies to the forum. So the forumn should have a fantasy portfolio for forumners to put money where their mouth is if they wanna brag. | ||||
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richtan
Supreme |
11-Sep-2009 00:06
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Nah... nah... nah... dun learn from me, I no guru, no promise win big big. I m post my charts just to share my views, n exchange pointers, not to educate. May be freeme should learn from cheongwee since she claims to be very astute n better than TA n win big big but if no win big big, then better dun ask her why u play me to "hollan" as I m sure she will turn around n say "I never take a gun n force u to follow, dyodd n BOSAYOR"
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kellychang
Master |
10-Sep-2009 23:59
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ok...thanks u.... i also plan to cut my those rubbish counter...and get more cash to buy my blues....hehe
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cheongwee
Elite |
10-Sep-2009 23:57
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dont worry sick,,,,next leg down i will guide you...but only buy blues..so you dont need to look over your shoulder now and then...and worry ..and also got divident..and as market recover..they pay even more divident..and share appreciation..so all more $$$..and no worry...how??? but if i call you to cut..u must follow thro...till then..gd luck to you.
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kellychang
Master |
10-Sep-2009 23:52
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well...i am working ....cant all the times monitor the market...so big news comes, i dun even have times to react immediately or run road fast... like last time....sian.... so i rather...prepare myself first... even i now play, also nipple small small to earn kopi money... i just need 1 good chance then can huat big... i think timing for enter is very important... well, if i anyhow whack my cash now... if good times comes, i dun even have bullet to buy all the good stocks...then i miss the boat.... well, i rather wait for 1 big chance and huat big that times...safer n can win big...
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freeme
Elite |
10-Sep-2009 23:52
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As long as ur strategy suits you, just stick to it.. im still refining my methods. FA anyhow one la.. just wan to earn commission. Maybe not all are lousy la. Im suai la.. Those FA ask you to do DCA ones at least still got some brain.
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richtan
Supreme |
10-Sep-2009 23:49
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Hi freeme, I m happy to know tat u dun quite agree with my TA, precisely the reason why I post my charts, not to show-off my TA skills (I m still learning as the Chinese sayings "Live till old, learn till old"), not solely seeking for agreement but to hope some knowledgeable TA practitioner can exchange pointers n post their alternate views so I can learn. As per my disclaimer in every of my post: "I may be right or wrong, so dyodd n BOSAYOR" Since u disagree with some of my TA charts, why not be as generous as me by sharing your TA views.
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thomas_low
Veteran |
10-Sep-2009 23:48
Yells: "Gong Xi Money Made" |
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I think is good to see people voicing their view strongly and have charts and justification on it, so it makes people consider, smart one will be alerted and do some research and decide, daft one will simply follows, imagine if Sharejunction forum turns into MarketTalk in CNA, half of the post are useless distraction. This will kill the forum, nowadawys I dont even bother to visit CNA Market Talk. As there are so many people "trying to manipulate (they hope thay can) the market with their news and views", TA sharing is fantastic, Fundamental A also fantastic, but saying this and that will cheong like no tomorrow is just a bit of fun....please remember to put a smiley if you do that. | ||||
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kellychang
Master |
10-Sep-2009 23:46
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well..agreed.. i also hate those FA .....keep asking us use cpf to invest... i still rmb what she told my bf...she last year told my bf..when olympig came, then china market will up...see, olympig came , but china market dropped like hell!!! my bf portfolio now super red... i now rather invest myself.... i think use mine 2:1 strategy ...also not bad... 2/3 capital all goes into blues, then 1/3 capital invest into good mid cap.....
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