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Nikkei Outlook
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guoyanyunyan
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30-Jul-2013 09:08
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Nikkei 225, Japan stock ETFs at knife’s edge ....After the Nikkei 225 slid  7.6% over the past four days–taking it below its 50-day moving average along the way–Japan’s main stock index could stand at a decisive level, according to technical analysts. “As we head into the last couple days of July, the action may very well may define the medium-term direction of the Japanese market,” Jonathan Krinsky, chief technical analyst at Miller Tabak, wrote in a note out Monday afternoon. “If the bull market is still healthy, the correction should hold at current levels. If not, then any bullish thesis will likely be put on the back burner for now.” Japanese ETFs such as the iShares MSCI Japan and WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund have slumped along with the Nikkei, leaving them up 14% and 21% in 2013 to date. To put some numbers to the latest Japanese sell-off, Krinsky says of the Nikkei: “A break of 13,660 implies near-term downside risk to the 13,200 level, with a possibility of a full retracement back to the June lows around 12,400.” The index fell hard in late May through early June before recovering, as shown in the chart above. MacNeil Curry, head of global technical strategy at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, is another chart watcher who views the Nikkei as on an edge. He said it’s near “a significant breakdown and resumption of its larger bear trend.” The Nikkei remains up 31% in 2013 to date, but it’s 13% off its May 22 high. Later this evening, investors will take in reports on Japanese unemployment and industrial production that might help the Nikkei. They’re expected at 7:30 p.m.  Eastern and 7:50 p.m., respectively. Economists predict a jobless rate of 4% and a 1.5% decline in industrial production after a 1.9% gain in May, according to FactSet. The Nikkei’s 2013 gain has mostly been attributed to Abenomics, which a recent Wall Street Journal article described as “a high-stakes gamble to escape a cycle of paltry growth and falling prices using a combination of government spending, easy money and an ambitious overhaul of Japan’s hidebound economy.” |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
30-Jul-2013 08:58
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Nikkei Holds Steady On Buybacks After SellingTOKYO (NQN)--Tokyo stocks opened down Tuesday, falling 26.93 points, or 0.20%, to 13,634.20 at the open. The September contract for Nikkei Stock Average futures fell on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange overnight, which fueled selling in the early going on the Tokyo market. Investors were also selling stocks to correct their positions due to concern over the yen's rise. However, investors began buying back shares when the yen fell against the dollar, pushing the Nikkei average into positive territory just after the opening bell.   |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
29-Jul-2013 14:51
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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China to support growth with 'targeted' measures ....BEIJING--Chinese Finance Minister Lou Jiwei 楼 继 伟 said Friday that China's economy still faces numerous difficulties and authorities will step up efforts to support economic growth with " targeted measures." " The domestic economic situation has been largely stable so far this year, with major economic indicators within reasonable ranges," Mr. Lou said in a statement on the ministry's website. " But we still face a lot of difficulties and challenges." The minister didn't give precise details of the targeted measures though he said the government will step up efforts for more efficient use of funds transferred from the central government to local governments. Authorities will also overhaul existing preferential tax policies and continue to tighten administrative spending, he added. The minister's remarks echoed the statements of other officials on the need for modest support for economic growth, even as the economy appears to lose steam. People's Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan 周 小 川 said China would maintain a prudent monetary policy as it steps up lending to smaller companies, according to a statement published Friday by the central bank. The Chinese economy expanded 7.5% on year in the second quarter, after growing 7.7% in the first quarter. Fiscal revenue rose 7.5% on year to 6.859 trillion yuan ($1.12 trillion) in the first half of the year, while spending climbed 10.8% to CNY5.971 trillion.   |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
29-Jul-2013 14:41
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Kuroda Says BOJ Easing Having Positive Effects On Econ, MktsBank of Japan Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda said Monday he sees the monetary stimulus that the central bank introduced April as having positive effects on financial markets, the economy, and expectations for price rises, but cautioned that the BOJ is still some ways off from achieving its 2% inflation goal. " Not all of these favorable developments are attributable to (the April easing), nevertheless it most certainly is an important factor," Mr. Kuroda said in a news conference. In April, the BOJ's took unprecedented easing measures, which have helped the core consumer price index increase for the first time in 14 months. Data released by the government Friday showed the index logged a 0.4% rise on year in June. Little less than four months after Mr. Kuroda launched the easing stimulus, some analysts say the BOJ's efforts have started paying off, while skeptics say a sustained rise in the CPI appears difficult, as the latest gains came mostly from rising energy costs and a weaker yen. Mr. Kuroda also stuck to his view that the index will likely reach its target of 2.0% in the latter half of the central bank's projection period through the end of March 2016. Earlier this month, the BOJ upgraded its assessment of the economy, using its most optimistic language in more than two years in describing the economy as starting to " recover moderately."   |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
29-Jul-2013 14:37
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Nikkei Ends Down On Dollar's Fall, Futures-Led SellingTOKYO (NQN)--Tokyo stocks closed lower for the fourth straight trading day Monday, with the Nikkei Stock Average tumbling 468.85 points, or 3.32%, to end the day at 13,661.13. It is the first time since July 1 for the benchmark index to close below 14,000. The dollar briefly fell to the 97 yen level, prompting selling of exporters and other stocks on profit-taking. The Nikkei average extended its losses toward the close on futures-led selling. The trading value on the first section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange totaled 2.19 trillion yen on a preliminary basis.   |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
29-Jul-2013 08:49
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Nikkei Opens Below 14,000 On Yen's RiseTOKYO (NQN)--Tokyo stocks opened lower Monday, with the Nikkei Stock Average plunging 230 points to start the day at 13,899 before widening its losses to the upper-200-point range. It is the first time for the benchmark index to fall below 14,000 since July 4. The weakening of the dollar and the euro against the yen is prompting selling of exporters. Carmakers, including Toyota Motor Corp. and Fuji Heavy Industries Ltd.  , are trading in negative territory across the board. Nomura Holdings Inc. is falling more than 3%.   |
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superstunner
Member |
27-Jul-2013 21:46
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but before that expect a rebound on Nikkei to at  least  14600 |
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sibeiho
Member |
26-Jul-2013 18:46
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The Nikkei and the JPY is ready for some major retracement...the JPY will at least hit 91....the Nikkei will move down till then...if you follow closely the movement of the JPY...it is highly correlated to the price of gold since Nov last year....check out this blog and it will become clearer as currently the opportunity lies with shorting the US market....http://sibeiho.wordpress.com/ | ||
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
26-Jul-2013 15:30
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Nikkei Ends Sharply Lower On Yen's Rise, Earnings ConcernsTOKYO (NQN)--Tokyo stocks continued lower Friday, with the Nikkei Stock Average plunging 432.95 points, or 2.97%, to end the day at 14,129.98. The loss was the largest since June 13, when the index dropped 843 points. The yen's rise prompted selling of a broad range of issues, exporters in particular. Disappointing earnings results are also raising investor concerns. Japanese institutional investors sold off blue chips ahead of earnings announcements, with Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. and other major banks falling significantly. After the afternoon session began, selling of stock index futures increased. The Nikkei Stock Average fell 3.2% on a weekly basis, down for the first time in six weeks. The trading value on the first section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange totaled about 2.37 trillion yen on a preliminary basis.   |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
26-Jul-2013 12:53
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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BOJ And MAS Agree On Framework To Provide Banks Singapore Dollars In Exchange For JGBsTOKYO--The Bank of Japan and the Monetary Authority of Singapore said they have agreed to set up a framework aimed at enabling foreign banks in Singapore to secure Singapore dollars using Japanese government bonds as collateral. The measure, announced Friday, is aimed at giving commercial banks more flexibility in their procurement of the local currency, as they expand their businesses in Southeast Asia. The region, with growing middle-classes in some countries, is increasingly becoming a market for Japanese companies, rather than just serving as a manufacturing base. That has also translated into more business opportunities for Japanese banks. This will be the second such agreement between Japan and another Asian nation enabling the use of JGBs as collateral, following one with Thailand that was established in 2011. Friday's announcement was timed to coincide with Japanese Prime Minster Shinzo Abe's visit to Singapore. " This collaboration reinforces the BOJ and MAS' commitment to support the long-standing economic and financial relationship between Jana and Singapore," the central banks said in a statement. The two central banks will aim to finalize in several months the details of the framework, which in practice will be an expansion of the MAS's existing liquidity facility. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
26-Jul-2013 09:19
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Nikkei Falls Below 14,300 On Yen's RiseTOKYO (NQN)--Tokyo stocks are widening their losses Friday morning, with the Nikkei Stock Average down more than 300 points to fall below 14,300. It is the first time since July 11 that the benchmark index has gone below that level during trading hours. The yen's uptrend and concerns about China's economic slowdown are prompting the sale of exporters.   |
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Tomique
Master |
25-Jul-2013 09:44
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A year ago, Nikkei was around 8500.   Now it is a whopping 14657 (current time) almost 6100 points for 12 months.   All this despite the aftermath of the devastating earthquakes and tsunami.   I think it has been helped by global upsurge in stock markets during the last 2 years. | ||
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
25-Jul-2013 09:32
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Abe Leaves On Trip To 3 Asian Nations To Deepen Ties With ASEANTOKYO (Kyodo)--Prime Minister Shinzo Abe embarked Thursday on a trip to Malaysia, Singapore and the Philippines to deepen economic and security ties with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, his third visit to the fast-growing region since retaking the premiership late last year. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
25-Jul-2013 09:28
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Nikkei Seesaws On Wait-And-See Mood For EarningsTOKYO (NQN)--Tokyo stocks were moving in a tight range after the opening bell Thursday, with the Nikkei Stock Average briefly falling below 14,700 before climbing back above that threshold. The dollar's rise to the 100 yen level is prompting buying. However, the earnings performance of Caterpillar Inc. of the U.S. is serving as a negative factor, as it contributed to the slight overnight decline in the Dow Jones industrial average. Many investors are hesitant to buy shares, preferring to see how earnings pan out for Japanese firms for the April-June and January-June periods.   |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
24-Jul-2013 16:06
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Here’s when to get out of the Nikkei rally .... Japan's Nikkei is the world's best performing major equity market this year and is tipped to head higher on yen weakness. So, at what point is it time to exit from the stock-market trade of the year? The answer is when inflation hits the Bank of Japan's 2% target, says Harmen Overdijk, the head of portfolio management at EFG International, a private banking group. Japan's core consumer prices, which exclude food, stopped falling in May and data due out on Thursday is expected to show they rose 0.3% in June from a year earlier, according to a Reuters poll. " The government will do anything to push inflation higher and I am convinced that they will succeed this time. This will lead to a weaker yen and to higher equity prices," said Overdijk, who expects the Nikkei to rally towards 18,000 to 21,000 over the next 12 to 18 months, implying a gain of at least 23% from current levels. " However, there is no long-term plan to deal with structural challenges like the ageing population, low productivity and huge relative debt position," he added. " The day the government announces they have 2% inflation, market sentiment will be very positive, but that will be the time to sell all your Japanese assets," said Overdijk, whose firm is long Japanese stocks and REITs. Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has pledged to transform Japan's economy, hampered for years by deflation and weak growth. But there are some concerns that a decisive win in elections to Japan's upper house of parliament at the weekend could make Abe less determined to deliver long-term economic reforms. The Nikkei traded around 14,715 in early Asia trade on Wednesday, undermined by weaker-than-expected Japanese export data. Still, after a correction in May and early June, the Nikkei appears to be back on track for stronger gains and is up almost 19% from a two-month low hit in June. Abe's weekend election win could push the Nikkei to 20,000 and the yen above 105 against the dollar, Charles Beazley, the CEO of Nikko Asset Management, one of Asia's largest regional asset managers told CNBC earlier this week. The Nikkei has surged about 40% this year, driven higher by aggressive monetary stimulus, a sharp fall in the yen that has boosted exporters and optimism that Japan may finally be emerging from a period of deflation. Gains in other major markets pale in comparison to the Nikkei. The S& P 500, which hit a record high this week, is up about 19% this year, while the FTSEurofirst 300 index of pan-European stocks has rallied about 7%. " After a series of bond market reverberations in April and May, the equity market was a stealth outperformer in June. Indeed it was one of the few developed markets to post absolute gains in June," equity strategists at Jeffries, an investment banking group, said in a note this week. " The improving breadth of the economic recovery and equity market as well as the turnaround being experienced in the housing and property sector leads us to lift our Nikkei target to 15,500 based on a year -end dollar/yen target rate of 110," they added. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
24-Jul-2013 15:52
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Nikkei Ends Lower On Profit-TakingTOKYO (NQN)--Tokyo stocks closed lower for the first time in three trading day Wednesday, with the Nikkei Stock Average falling 47.23 points, or 0.32%, to end the day at 14,731.28. Investors were selling stocks to lock in gains amid concerns about an overheating of the benchmark index. Also spurring sales is the fact that the yen-based liquidation price for Nikkei Stock Average futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange fell overnight below the intraday price recorded on the Osaka Securities Exchange. In contrast, Nidec Corp. climbed after it announced the previous evening that it upgraded its group net profit outlook for the year ending March 2014. Alps Electric Co. and Taiyo Yuden Co. also rose, supported by Apple Inc.'s better-than-expected sales of iPhones for the April-June quarter. The overall market was underpinned by individual stocks. The trading value on the first section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange totaled about 2 trillion yen on a preliminary basis. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
24-Jul-2013 11:22
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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HSBC July Preliminary China Manufacturing PMI Falls To 47.7BEIJING--The preliminary HSBC China Manufacturing PMI, a gauge of nationwide manufacturing activity, fell to 47.7 in July, compared with a final reading of 48.2 in June, HSBC Holdings PLC said Wednesday. The reading is an 11-month low. A figure above 50 indicates expansion from the previous month, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction. " The lower reading of the July HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI suggests a continuous slowdown in manufacturing sectors thanks to weaker new orders and faster destocking," HSBC economist Qu Hongbin said in a statement. " As Beijing has recently stressed to secure the minimum level of growth required to ensure stable employment, the flash PMI reinforces the need to introduce additional fine-tuning measures to stabilise growth," he said. The preliminary PMI figure, also called the HSBC Flash China PMI, is based on 85% to 90% of total responses to HSBC's PMI survey each month, and is issued about one week before the final PMI reading.   |
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Tomique
Master |
24-Jul-2013 09:04
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After the Tsunami, the global fear of radioactive contamination is going to be a headache for Japan because its exports will continue to decline until people are confident that clean up is in totality.   Otherwise the fear will still linger one.   We in Singapore has already banned food and veggies from Japan in a cautious move. Sad.
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Tomique
Master |
24-Jul-2013 09:00
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Euphoria usually dies when reality sets in.   Nikkei giving back some gains this morning.
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
24-Jul-2013 08:37
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Nikkei Opens Lower On Profit-TakingTOKYO (NQN)--Tokyo stocks opened lower Wednesday, with the Nikkei Stock Average sliding 58 points to begin the day at 14,719 before trimming its losses to about 50 points. Investors are selling stocks to lock in recent gains on concerns about an overheating, after the benchmark index rose to within about 200 points of the psychologically important 15,000 mark Tuesday. The yen-based liquidation price for the September contract for Nikkei Stock Average futures reached 14,715 on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange overnight, 65 points lower than the intraday price recorded on the Osaka Securities Exchange. Because of that, futures are being sold in Tokyo as well. The Nikkei average is also being pushed down in part because Fast Retailing Co. and Fanuc Corp., which greatly influence the index, are becoming targets of arbitrage selling.   |
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