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NOL Post Reply Rate topic
sgng123 Veteran	26-Nov-2012 10:18        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Currently nol share steady at 1.15 but support wane fast as it go up to 1.165 then down. retailer taking profit after US rally last fri. don go in yet wait till BB make their move, need a sustained BB involvement ( a few sessions of heavy trade in the green lol ).
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harley22ez Senior	25-Nov-2012 16:02        harley22ez About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Would expect NOL to surge to 1.21! GRI on 1st jan will take place. i dunno so much about singapore export market whihc is like mickey mouse compared to asian/usa/regional markets sgng123      ( Date: 24-Nov-2012 11:51) Posted: info is mostly a summary of all the GRI happening this year and as i mentioned carriers is on their own, they are pressurised by their lenders to be profitable. But no matter what happen to freight rate, the single most important thing for NOL share price is sentiment. If US + China economy is picking up steam, then NOL would go up.1Q  2012 US non farm payroll job is like 200K average, BB go in market and jack up nol from 1.1 to 1.5. But later in 2Q, US job data drop drastically and nol sink like a sub. China HSBC PMI also play important hint to share price recovering. Cos china make stuff for US, if PMI > 50 = US demand = business for NOL. For nol, as long as asia-us rate remain stable then nol is ok since  50%  revenue is US based, europe is  like 20%  the rest make up 30%. US fiscal cliff is biggest obstacle to nol share price recover, once that is overcome time for ship to move with strong wind from fed reserve  unlimited QE3  in 2013.  nol share price showing resilent friday, rising to 1.135 .  US stock  up 172 last nite, the positive trend might continue next week. hopeful BB would come in and provide support.
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khng2012 Master	24-Nov-2012 18:25        khng2012 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Do you think the possibility of turn over in final year result? Some company they recognize some revenue and profit to early or late quarter and try to maintain or push up their share price during Window dressing period Feb to April. Reason, the company will grant their management or staff with share as bonus. Pushing share price up seem like giving a lot of bonus to them and retain them in the company. My previous company always do this and we are so happy to take the bonus and stay longer. Till Sept, share price drop drop and pick up again in year end to cheer us for another batch of share. But the job no life and need to work 6 to 7 days. I quit at the end. sgng123      ( Date: 24-Nov-2012 16:12) Posted: Anyone in shipping industry know anything about the peak session surcharge for US route. Carriers look like never implemented it during 3Q and checking NOL 3Q result, the revenue/volume is unchanged compared to 2Q. Very weird as US trade is strong this year and TSA put a recommended 500 surcharge on it. I check with other carriers 3Q results and same no mention of US peak session surcharge.
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sgng123 Veteran	24-Nov-2012 16:12        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Anyone in shipping industry know anything about the peak session surcharge for US route. Carriers look like never implemented it during 3Q and checking NOL 3Q result, the revenue/volume is unchanged compared to 2Q. Very weird as US trade is strong this year and TSA put a recommended 500 surcharge on it. I check with other carriers 3Q results and same no mention of US peak session surcharge.
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sgng123 Veteran	24-Nov-2012 11:51        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	info is mostly a summary of all the GRI happening this year and as i mentioned carriers is on their own, they are pressurised by their lenders to be profitable. But no matter what happen to freight rate, the single most important thing for NOL share price is sentiment. If US + China economy is picking up steam, then NOL would go up.1Q  2012 US non farm payroll job is like 200K average, BB go in market and jack up nol from 1.1 to 1.5. But later in 2Q, US job data drop drastically and nol sink like a sub. China HSBC PMI also play important hint to share price recovering. Cos china make stuff for US, if PMI > 50 = US demand = business for NOL. For nol, as long as asia-us rate remain stable then nol is ok since  50%  revenue is US based, europe is  like 20%  the rest make up 30%. US fiscal cliff is biggest obstacle to nol share price recover, once that is overcome time for ship to move with strong wind from fed reserve  unlimited QE3  in 2013.  nol share price showing resilent friday, rising to 1.135 .  US stock  up 172 last nite, the positive trend might continue next week. hopeful BB would come in and provide support.
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harley22ez Senior	24-Nov-2012 00:28        harley22ez About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Bro, where did you obtain such information?looks ok for local singapore market as it is small but not 100 percent true for regional and global. sgng123      ( Date: 23-Nov-2012 20:26) Posted: Mostly it gona be -150+ for europe and -80+ for US west. It a vicous cycle, next year carrier gona double all trade lane rate 1000 GRI and most likely they would get 800 lol. The GRI would get more and more frequent since freight rate cannot stablilise, it is crazy. It is like 300 > 400 > 500 > 800 .... In the end, we the consumers going to get hit with price increase on export good. big fight between carriers and  exporters aka the new rate war?  With all the capacity cut going at break nexk speed, soon we go from over supply to under supply cos carriers don want to lose money on poor rate.
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sgng123 Veteran	23-Nov-2012 20:26        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Mostly it gona be -150+ for europe and -80+ for US west. It a vicous cycle, next year carrier gona double all trade lane rate 1000 GRI and most likely they would get 800 lol. The GRI would get more and more frequent since freight rate cannot stablilise, it is crazy. It is like 300 > 400 > 500 > 800 .... In the end, we the consumers going to get hit with price increase on export good. big fight between carriers and  exporters aka the new rate war?  With all the capacity cut going at break nexk speed, soon we go from over supply to under supply cos carriers don want to lose money on poor rate.
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harley22ez Senior	23-Nov-2012 15:59        harley22ez About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	lines are finiancing on their own ...ie maersk has loads of money.   the poorer one will be selling building, selling ships/contaimner and relaesing them again. misc is oredi bankrupt.those without deep pockets will be out of business if they dont have big brother to support. one thing for sure ifs dat rates will be going up.usd1500 is too ambitous but it whus go up.  sgng123      ( Date: 23-Nov-2012 12:47) Posted: European bank had pulled out loan for carrier due to europe crisis. now carriers had no silver bullets left for market share fight. maserk basically telling us they not gona interested in getting more market share, divert investment to other business. We had been enjoying subsidised shipping rate for donkey years it just like in singapore our govt artifically hold down our salary to attract investment. after 2012 election, 1 GRC down 5 MP out, they tell us going to increase salary by 30% lol. March-Jul 3 rate hike basically jack up rate from 1500 to 3800 250% increase!! crazy shit as we are in middle of europe crisis. They might do it again early next year looking at how they force big GRI 500 in the weakest quarter for shipping not to mention another big dipper of 600 is coming on dec .... they are gona kill off those exporters lol. Today NOL is very steady , now is at 1.13 but still monitoring , not going to go in till US fiscal cliff is resolved. Need BB to commit first before i rush in lol safety first.
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khng2012 Master	23-Nov-2012 15:46        khng2012 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	http://www1.chineseshipping.com.cn/en/indices/scfi.jsp This week Shanghai Contrainer index, no so good drop -5%. Monday will know which region drop the most. This is the reason why almost all the container lines want to hike rate in Dec. It break their breakeven line.
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sgng123 Veteran	23-Nov-2012 12:47        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	European bank had pulled out loan for carrier due to europe crisis. now carriers had no silver bullets left for market share fight. maserk basically telling us they not gona interested in getting more market share, divert investment to other business. We had been enjoying subsidised shipping rate for donkey years it just like in singapore our govt artifically hold down our salary to attract investment. after 2012 election, 1 GRC down 5 MP out, they tell us going to increase salary by 30% lol. March-Jul 3 rate hike basically jack up rate from 1500 to 3800 250% increase!! crazy shit as we are in middle of europe crisis. They might do it again early next year looking at how they force big GRI 500 in the weakest quarter for shipping not to mention another big dipper of 600 is coming on dec .... they are gona kill off those exporters lol. Today NOL is very steady , now is at 1.13 but still monitoring , not going to go in till US fiscal cliff is resolved. Need BB to commit first before i rush in lol safety first.
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harley22ez Senior	23-Nov-2012 10:33        harley22ez About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	next year still gonna be bad bro.expect 2013 to be choppy for shipping lines but ratewise, it will improve as strategies have changed.lines will be playing one another out as usual in order to maintain market sher but it will not be downrite rate undercutting.... nol shud be 1.30 soon )
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sgng123 Veteran	23-Nov-2012 10:28        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Agreed. Now all the carriers are working together, taking out capacity to balance demand. Hope they rock the spot freight rate high high next year then NOL can get a higher rate when they renewed yearly contract in april/may for both US and europe.  Hopefully NOL would get a proper share valuation, share price now is like pricing in a 2009 style economy depression.
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harley22ez Senior	23-Nov-2012 09:25        harley22ez About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	shud not thank maybank but shuld thank Maersk....   Maersk Line, the world’s biggest operator of container ships, expects rates to rise on trans- Pacific routes next month because of an industrywide push and a recovering U.S. housing market. “We are optimistic that we will get something,” Thomas Knudsen, head of Maersk Line’s Asia Pacific operations, said in an interview today in Singapore. He declined to comment on how big the potential increase may be. The A.P. Moeller-Maersk A/S unit and other container lines have agreed to seek a $400 per 40-foot box increase in Asia-U.S. west coast fees next month as they lay the groundwork for upcoming annual contract negotiations. A pickup in homebuilding is also boosting volumes, helping lines counter declines of more than 10 percent in Asia-Europe cargos, Knudsen said. Maersk, based in Copenhagen, said Oct. 12 that it will remove 19 ships from Asia-Europe routes in a bid to revive rates. The cut brings its total 2012 capacity reduction on the sector to 21 percent. Hanjin Shipping Co., Cosco Container Lines Co. and other lines have also cut services for the traditionally slower end of the year. The cuts mean that Maersk may able to get some rate increases on Asia-Europe routes ahead of the Chinese New Year, which falls in February, Knudsen said. “The initial indications are looking significantly better than they were last year,” he said. “We are quite optimistic about the contracting season.” Asia-Europe rates have slumped 35 percent since the end of June to $1,225 per 20-foot box last week, according to the Shanghai Shipping Exchange. RS Platou sees cash break-even at between $1,250 and $1,350. Spot rates for cargo hauled to the U.S. west coast have fallen 13 percent to $2,224 per 40-foot box. Trans-Pacific ships are fuller than those traveling to Europe, Knudsen said. Still, on both lanes utilization rates are “not super,” he said. Maersk expects a marginal increase in full-year trans- Pacific volumes this year, compared with a decline on Asia- Europe routes. The Transpacific Stabilization Agreement, a group for container lines operating on Asia-U.S. routes, has set a guideline to raise rates by $800 a box in annual contracts that takes effect around May 1. The group has limited antitrust protection. Confidence among homebuilders, as measured by the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo index, held at 41 in November, the highest since June 2006, data today may show, according to a Bloomberg survey. Readings lower than 50 mean more respondents still said conditions were poor. Maersk Line reiterated this month that it expects a “modest” profit in 2012. It cut its estimate for global container demand growth to 3 percent compared with a 4 percent prediction made in August. To contact the reporter on this story: Kyunghee Park in Singapore at kpark3@bloomberg.net To contact the editor responsible for this story: Neil Denslow at ndenslow@bloomberg.net khng2012      ( Date: 22-Nov-2012 11:17) Posted: You should thank maybank. All brokers target to NOL is above 1.30 now. Let's see how it go. But no vested yet since freight rate is still bad due to over capacity and just NOL itself will add 10% capacity in 2013. harley22ez      ( Date: 22-Nov-2012 11:07) Posted: up 5.5cts oredi today! for those who doubted me .... have faith.but dont be greedy and make while u can. there are madatory GRI in place by some big liners....
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raykee Senior	22-Nov-2012 15:25        raykee About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	wow NOL got wat news? burst 0.055.....................
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sgng123 Veteran	22-Nov-2012 14:05        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Let pray GRI in dec go through. Don be too worry about the big decline in buy/sell position , it is common as long the long term trend is positive. nol  is high beta stock, big movement in share price is very common once BB move in. Going up/down 5% is norm for nol.
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khng2012 Master	22-Nov-2012 13:36        khng2012 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Agreed that NOL is moving better position. The problem is still on the freight rate. Hopefully, it will be up in Dec. sgng123      ( Date: 22-Nov-2012 13:32) Posted: HSBC china PMI 50.4, if this trend remain intact NOL would be steady moving forward. Now just need to wait for US congress to strike compromise with their tax reform then it time for NOL to move. By the way NOL is renewing their fleet in 2013, lot of chartered ships would be returned and this would result in lowering of operating cost lol. In fact this year NOL total  cargo capacity strink a bit due to fleet renewal. more shrinkage of capacity is expected as bigger capacity ship would replace lot of smaller ships in 2013. Asian shippers are asking for reform to shipping regulation to avoid  overcharging by carriers   lol  age of subsidised shipping is over.
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sgng123 Veteran	22-Nov-2012 13:32        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	HSBC china PMI 50.4, if this trend remain intact NOL would be steady moving forward. Now just need to wait for US congress to strike compromise with their tax reform then it time for NOL to move. By the way NOL is renewing their fleet in 2013, lot of chartered ships would be returned and this would result in lowering of operating cost lol. In fact this year NOL total  cargo capacity strink a bit due to fleet renewal. more shrinkage of capacity is expected as bigger capacity ship would replace lot of smaller ships in 2013. Asian shippers are asking for reform to shipping regulation to avoid  overcharging by carriers   lol  age of subsidised shipping is over.
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bbwolf82 Member	22-Nov-2012 11:45        bbwolf82 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Signs of NOL coming down loh..   Dun understand how it can happen. At 11.35, there are queues for 1.115 and 1.120. Someone bought up. Then suddenly, sellers at 1.120 disappeared and become all buy up at 1.115. 11:43:44 1.115 1,000 Buy Up 11:42:37 1.115 5,000 Buy Up 11:42:37 1.110 1,000 Sell Down 11:41:37 1.115 1,000 Buy Up 11:37:05 1.115 44,000 Buy Up 11:37:04 1.115 50,000 Buy Up 11:37:04 1.115 8,000 Buy Up 11:37:04 1.115 5,000 Buy Up 11:37:04 1.115 21,000 Buy Up 11:37:04 1.115 5,000 Buy Up 11:37:04 1.115 1,000 Buy Up 11:37:04 1.115 33,000 Buy Up 11:37:04 1.115 5,000 Buy Up 11:37:04 1.115 10,000 Buy Up 11:37:04 1.115 100,000 Buy Up 11:37:04 1.115 42,000 Buy Up 11:37:04 1.115 10,000 Buy Up 11:37:04 1.115 5,000 Buy Up 11:37:04 1.115 8,000 Buy Up 11:37:04 1.115 10,000 Buy Up 11:37:04 1.115 10,000 Buy Up 11:37:04 1.115 42,000 Buy Up 11:35:53 1.120 2,000 Buy Up
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khng2012 Master	22-Nov-2012 11:17        khng2012 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	You should thank maybank. All brokers target to NOL is above 1.30 now. Let's see how it go. But no vested yet since freight rate is still bad due to over capacity and just NOL itself will add 10% capacity in 2013. harley22ez      ( Date: 22-Nov-2012 11:07) Posted: up 5.5cts oredi today! for those who doubted me .... have faith.but dont be greedy and make while u can. there are madatory GRI in place by some big liners....
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harley22ez Senior	22-Nov-2012 11:07        harley22ez About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	up 5.5cts oredi today! for those who doubted me .... have faith.but dont be greedy and make while u can. there are madatory GRI in place by some big liners....
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