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Sembmarine
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krisluke
Supreme |
31-Oct-2011 20:24
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A pause to the current rally is likely in the near-term with 2780- 2830 as support and 2920-2945 as resistance. If key global equity indices (e.g. US indices, FTSE100) are able to hang onto their recent gains, we point to the possibility of a subsequent close above 2945 (post pause) that should send the index higher to the next key resistance at 3100. Finally, we view support at 2780 as critical and a downside break below this level will be a bearish sign. While the immediate danger of the current European sovereign debt crisis spiralling into a GFC situation has subsided for now, we say that it would be mistaken to draw parallels between now and March 2009 when global equity markets bottomed and subsequently embarked on a V-shaped recovery. It is still early days to call for an end to macro uncertainties. News flow wise, it is likely that last week marked the high point in the European leaders’ attempt to halt the debt crisis from spiralling out of control. Excitement about the EU summit’s outcome could turn to scrutiny. Next, global economic growth remains uncertain heading into 2012 and this will affect corporate earnings visibility. |
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krisluke
Supreme |
31-Oct-2011 20:21
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Sembcorp Marine: Secures FSO tanker conversion contract
Summary: Sembcorp Marine (SMM) announced that its Sembawang Shipyard, in a consortium arrangement with PT Scorpa Pranedya, has secured a US$300m Floating Storage Offloading (FSO) tanker conversion contract from Mobil Cepu Ltd, a subsidiary of Exxon Mobil Corporation. SMM will be responsible for the engineering, procurement, construction, commissioning and hook-up work for the Banyu Urip project in Indonesia.
In line with our expectations that we may see more new order flows in the later part of this year, Oct has been a busy month for SMM in terms of contract signings, and the group has secured about S$3.3b worth of new orders YTD, accounting for 74% of our full year estimate.
Maintain BUY with S$5.70 fair value estimate. (Low Pei Han)
Sembcorp Marine: US$300m FSO contract in Indonesia (Buy)
Jason Saw (6232 3871, jason.saw@sg.oskgroup.com) New orders exceed S$600m in Oct 2011. SMM won its third major contract of the month with a new US$300m (S$372m) contract for a FSO in Indonesia. The latest win lifted SMM’s YTD order win to S$3.25b and current net order book of S$6.3b. YTD order replenishment is within our estimate of S$3.5b for 2011. Following the announcement of a S$54.4m tax refund from IRS, we raise our FY11F EPS by 8%. Maintain BUY on SMM with an unchanged TP of S$5.46 FSO to be completed by 1Q14. The FSO project was awarded by Mobil Cepu, a unit of Exxon Mobil, to a consortium arrangement between Sembawang Shipyard (a wholly owned unit of SMM) and PT Scorpa Pranedya, an Indonesian ship owning and ship management company. Under the contract, SMM is responsible for the engineering, procurement, construction, commission and hook up of a VLCC-sized floating storage and offloading (FSO) vessel for the Banyu Urip project in Indonesia. The project will take 27 months to complete from contract award (estimated completion in Jan 2014). Elevated crude oil prices to keep orders coming. We expect new orders to come from: (1) conversion of some of its jackup options to firm contracts. SMM’s customers (Noble, Atwood, and Seadrill) have eight options for newbuild jackup rigs worth S$2b five options will expire by 2011 and three in 2012. (2) SMM is bidding for some semisub projects by Statoil which could materialise by 4Q11 or 1Q12 (source: Upstream)
SembCorp Marine – Pace of order win slow, potential downside to FY12 numbers.
SembCorp Marine has been awarded a US$300m tanker conversion contract from a subsidiary of ExxonMobil. This contract was secured via a consortium with an Indonesian shipowning and ship management company. This contract is a welcome boost to SMM’s FY11 order wins, which have lagged Keppel’s by a significant margin.
Our analyst estimates YTD order wins (ex ship repair) to be S$3.3bn, forming 66% of S$5bn full year order wins assumption.
He estimates current order backlog to be S$4.9bn, after adjusting for orderbook drawdown in 3Q11, translating into a book to bill ratio of 1.3x. Given the pace of orders to date, there is potential downside to FY12 numbers.
> > > btw, who is " He" (dbs vicker's analyst) ? ?? Is he a ex cimb technical team member ? ??
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krisluke
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31-Oct-2011 20:10
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SembMarine (SMM): SMM, in a consortium arrangement with PT Scorpa Pranedya, has secured a US$300m Floating Storage Offloading (FSO) tanker conversion contract from an Exxon Mobil subsidiary for use at its Cepu Block in Indonesia. SMM is responsible for the engineering, procurement, construction, commissioning and hook-up work of a very large crude carrier (VLCC)-sized floating storage and offloading vessel for the Banyu Urip project in East Java, Indonesia. The conversion is expected to be completed in 27 months. The contract size is large compared to SMM’s previous FSO conversion projects. This brings SMM’s ytd order wins to $3.34b, vs $3b for the full year 2010. DMG reiterates Buy with TP $5.46. |
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warrenbegger
Elite |
31-Oct-2011 00:34
Yells: "Anyhow Buy Anyhow Die ^_^" |
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Why? I don't listen to Anal-si...
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krisluke
Supreme |
31-Oct-2011 00:29
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Oh NO ? !!! Cimb technical analysis team HEADACHE LIAO
Anyone bot at $3.28 or during cimb call at $3.20 or lower ? ??
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lowchia
Veteran |
30-Oct-2011 20:24
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On Friday, Sembmar gap up and closed at $4.36 with HIGH volume of 16.97 million shares traded. A rising window occurred (where the top of the previous shadow is below the bottom of the current shadow). This usually implies a continuation of a bullish trend. There have been 7 rising windows in the last 50 candles–this makes the current rising window even more bullish. Both RSI & MACD are bullish as RSI trend upwards. Important Resistance of Sembmar: $4.53 Immediate Support of Sembmar: $4.15 Currently prices are resisted by 100 days MA. On 27/Oct, prices broke the ................. READ MORE |
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krisluke
Supreme |
28-Oct-2011 23:28
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Offshore & Marine: New charters signal renewed interest in semisubs
(Overweight) Jason Saw (6232 3871, jason.saw@sg.oskgroup.com) Re-iterate positive view on the sector. Several newbuild semisub rigs have signed long term drilling commitments in the past month with day rates of around US$475-500k per day, and we believe this could lead to renewed interest for semisub newbuilds. Oil prices continue to stay at a healthy level that encourages drilling and reinvestment. We maintain our Overweight rating on the Singapore offshore & marine sector. Stocks in the sector has risen 23-29% from its three-month low and we believe positive newsflow will continue to re-rate the sector.
We prefer Sembcorp Marine (SMM) (BUY TP:S$5.46) over Keppel Corp (BUY TP:S$11.40):
(1) Petrobras could award the contracts for 21 deepwater rigs in the next couple of months and the award will have bigger impact on SMM’s order book and FY13F EPS.
(2) SMM has more capacity to bid for near term jobs due to lower order win in the past 12 months vs. Keppel. Day rates continue to rise on strong demand for new units. We note that semisub day rates have risen by 15-20% from US$420-430k/day in 2010. Major contracts signed in the past month for semisubs are: (1) Maersk’s US$780m four plus one year contract with BP for Maersk Discoverer with day rate of ~US$500k/day (2) Seadrill’s US$204m contract with Tullow to operate West Leo in Ghana with day rates exceeding US$500k/day.
(3) Seadrill’s US$909m five-year contract with an unnamed oil major in North America for West Capricorn. Implied day rate of US$487k/day.
(4) Ensco has signed a 21-month commitment with Anadarko, Apache and Noble Energy for ENSCO 8505 semisub with a day rate of US$475k/day. Market commentary points towards tightening rig supply demand. This is in contrast to the growing concerns over economic slowdown due to the Eurozone crisis. Recent increase in deepwater drilling permits in the Gulf of Mexico could help to absorb some of the newbuilds.
Big names sourcing for newbuild semisubs. We understand Statoil is looking at three more newbuild semis while BP and Vietsopetro is also looking at one unit each. Statoil’s interest in new semisubs are driven by its recent giant North Sea discovery in the Aldous Major South field which has an estimated 900m to 1.5b barrels of oil. More semisub orders could be placed in the next six months. > > > Good news, dmg is bullish on smm prospects Are they goin' to replace iocbc? ??
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warrenbegger
Elite |
28-Oct-2011 22:48
Yells: "Anyhow Buy Anyhow Die ^_^" |
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Krisluke! I love U!!! U r so hardworking :) |
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krisluke
Supreme |
28-Oct-2011 22:47
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Error Earning announcement 3rd quarter 2011 Sembcorp industries 04th nov 2011 Sembcorp marne 03th nov 2011 |
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krisluke
Supreme |
28-Oct-2011 22:40
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Sembcorp Marine: S$54m gain from tax refund
Jason Saw (6232 3871, jason.saw@sg.oskgroup.com) The news: Sembcorp Marine (BUY, TP: S$5.46) SMM to gain from IRAS refund. SMM will recognise a gain of S$54.4m in 2011 as Jurong Shipyard, a wholly owned subsidiary, has been allowed deduction of its losses from forex transactions for tax purposes for the Years of Assessment 2008 and 2009. The tax had been provisionally paid and a refund will be received from IRAS. We estimate the refund to boost our FY11F EPS by around 8%. SMM will release its 3Q11 results on Thursday, 3 Nov 2011, and we estimate net profit of S$230m, up 54% QoQ but down 24% YoY as 3Q10 was boosted by a one-off gain of S$53m from forex settlement with SocGen and resumption of recognition for a CJ70 rig. Our thoughts: Maintain BUY on SMM with a TP of S$5.46. We prefer SMM over Keppel as we expect stronger newsflow for SMM given more capacity to bid for jobs and higher impact from potential Petrobras win. > > > dmg is supporting sembcorp marine
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krisluke
Supreme |
28-Oct-2011 19:42
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Shanghai and Sensex just abt to retest their psychological (aka obama stimulus package strategy) resistant that could turn into a natural support Shanghai : 2620 Sensex: 17, 800 my personal view is that any breach of such above, the trend will turn from bear to bull. |
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krisluke
Supreme |
28-Oct-2011 19:35
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SilverThe breach of 50% Fibonacci correction could trigger a test of 61.8% Fibonacci as shown above. The ascending triangle formation could also support the upside movement, where the triangle’s suggested target is at 37.80, while 61.8% Fibonacci correction is at 37.25. Therefore, we expect trading above 35.10 to support the upside movement to extend today. The trading range for today is among the key support at 32.95 and key resistance now at 37.80. The short-term trend is to the downside targeting 26.65 as far as areas of 48.50 remain intact. Support: 35.10, 34.40, 34.00, 33.75, 33.40 Resistance: 35.65, 36.20, 36.80, 37.25, 37.80 Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above, we recommend buying silver around 35.10 and take profit in stages at (36.20 and 37.25) and stop loss below 34.40 might be appropriate.
GoldWith a daily closing above SMA50 -colored in red- we started to look at the metal from a pure harmonic point of view. Gold is dominated by a fine Fibonacci symmetry which suggests that a harmonic Bat pattern is in progress where it is currently forming its CD leg as seen on the provided daily chart. Vortex reflects a strong upside trend but we see Stochastic is in need for some kind of relief. We may witness a retest of 50% Fibonacci of XA leg and may be the pivotal support around 1702.00 before moving higher once more towards D point or rather the PRZ of the pattern around 88.6% of CD leg. A break of 61.8% is required to ease the path towards the targeted areas. The trading range for today is among the key support at 1673.00 and key resistance now at 1830.00. The general trend over the short term basis is to the upside targeting 1945.00 per ounce as far as areas of 1475.00 remain intact with weekly closing. Support: 1728.00, 1715.00, 1702.00, 1695.00, 1687.00 Resistance: 1745.00, 1763.00, 1772.00, 1785.00, 1800.00 Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, buying gold around 1724.00 targeting 1785.00 and stop loss below1690.00 might be appropriate.
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krisluke
Supreme |
28-Oct-2011 19:33
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As this week comes to an end, gold gives up some of the huge gains recorded during the week, where the metal advanced sharply ahead of the European summit and benefited from the high level of uncertainty however, the metal returned to decline slightly after leaders were able to quell jitters and rising debt woes. Gold opened today's session at $1744.77 per ounce and recorded the highest at $1752.36 and the lowest at $1735.22, and is currently hovering around $1738.03 per ounce. Over weekly basis, the metal gained in the first four sessions and heads towards large weekly gains, despite the mixed demand today, where the metal opened this week at $1641.00 per ounce and recorded the highest at $1752.36 and the lowest at $1635.27 per ounce, supported by the heavy losses seen for the U.S. dollar. Europe remains the main focus in the market, as investors are looking forward for the implementation of the measures and steps taken by leaders in the October 26 summit however, optimism dominated the market yesterday after the cheerful results, while gold gained heavily in the past session due to the weakening dollar and mixed sentiment. We saw a relief rally yesterday along with rising demand for risky investments, which reflected negative demand for the U.S. dollar and strong demand for gold however, we expect volatility and heavy fluctuations to dominate the market today with lack of major fundamentals from Europe and Asia today and especially as this week comes to an end, where investors will take profit and close their financial positions ahead of the coming week. Markets will also focus today on the income report from the world's largest economy, with a positive outlook that the report will bring more optimism to the market as it will show improvement in income and spending levels, especially after the upbeat gross domestic product figures, which showed that the U.S. economy grew beyond expectations by 2.5%. The income report, which consists mainly of the personal income, the personal spending and the personal consumption expenditures expectations suggest that the personal income could have improved by 0.3% from the previous drop of 0.1%, while the personal spending index is projected to rise by 0.6% from the previous 0.2% expansion. Moreover, sliver opened the session today at $35.05 per ounce, and recorded a high of $35.66 and a low of $34.93, and is trading slightly now around $35.23 per ounce. |
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krisluke
Supreme |
28-Oct-2011 19:32
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Fundamental Analysis Crude oil retreated today to cut some of yesterday's gains that achieved after optimism from U.S. that the economy is doing well, along with a comprehensive plan declared by EU leaders that would be sufficient to contain the crisis from spreading to bigger European economies. At the end of this week, crude oil satisfied with gains that achieved during the week due to hopes from Europe that a deal where reached to support the debt-laden nation and prevent the crisis' ghost from spreading to other nations, especially the bigger ones such as Italy and Spain. Also, the U.S. economy is getting better as GDP figures showed yesterday that the economy is growing by 2.5% at its fastest pace this year, giving signs that the global recovery train will be supported by the fastest growth pace in the world's largest economy, which added more positive momentum to crude oil yesterday. Oil for December delivery is fluctuating around $93.38 a barrel after recording a high of $93.96 and a low of $92.98 after it opened the session at $93.87. Volatility is dominating global markets and crude oil in particular, as it trading within a narrow range but with a negative momentum due to investors that are closing their positions at the end of the week to prevent any surprises that may cost them a lot of money. The chief executive officer of the EFSF said that China may not support Europe as quickly as was thought by buying EFSF' bonds as planned since China is a regular buyer of the fund's bonds, but China is a rich surplus country and it may continue the regular buying steps, where he indicated as well that the Greek bailout deal was an exceptional case and no need to repeat it. China is the main target for EU leaders that would support the continent in these times to ensure containing the crisis and get out of the crisis hole as soon as possible, and if China do not respond to leaders as planned and wont buying bonds as they need to support liquidity in Europe by the Special Purpose Vehicle. Crude oil is expected to maintain its volatile case at the end of the week and ahead of the U.S. income report which will give signs over the economy in general, and it may support crude if it show better than expected figures where it may show a rise by 0.3%. On the other hand, lack of fundamentals are adding more volatility to global markets and especially European markets, which will keep investors looking for any comments that may give more details over the European plan after it relieved the market when it been announced. Technical Analysis The commodity attempted to the resume the upside move, after breaching the intraday bullish flag pattern yesterday, where oil tested areas around 94.35, while trading is uniform within the ascending channel stochastic is in overbought are again, while price is near to to the main descending resistance, accordingly, due to the conflicting signals we will remain neutral for now. The trading range for the day is among the major support at 89.60 and the major resistance at 96.00. The short-term trend is to the downside with steady daily closing below 100.00 targeting 65.00. The provided chart based on GMT+3 Support: 92.95, 92.30, 91.50, 90.60, 89.60 Resistance: 94.00, 94.55, 95.00, 95.60, 96.50 Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above we recommend staying aside awaiting more confirmations
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krisluke
Supreme |
28-Oct-2011 19:29
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As analyse before by one of the local brokerage house ( forget which one liao)... Attractive dividend next year 2012 PLUS a cash rich corp. Guess I'm right on the attractive dividend payout.
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krisluke
Supreme |
28-Oct-2011 19:24
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 SEE  THEN
 stock market omen...
" GOOD NEWS DOESN" T GET REPEATED THRICE..." SO, Today ( FRI ).... REported two good news liao.... 4th Nov 2011 ( FRI ), 3rd Quarter Earning Surprise ? ??
GOOD OR BAD ? ! ? Any one ... ... |
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krisluke
Supreme |
28-Oct-2011 19:11
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PRESS RELEASE SEMBCORP MARINE’S SUBSIDIARY, SEMBAWANG SHIPYARD AWARDED FSO TANKER CONVERSION CONTRACT FROM MOBIL CEPU LTD Singapore, October 28, 2011: Shipyard, in a consortium arrangement with PT Scorpa Pranedya, has secured a US$300 million Floating Storage Offloading (FSO) tanker conversion contract from Mobil Cepu Ltd, a subsidiary of Exxon Mobil Corporation, contractor for the Indonesian Oil and Gas Regulatory Body (BPMIGAS) for Cepu Block. PT Scorpa Pranedya is an Indonesian shipowning and ship-management company. Under the contract, the Shipyard is responsible for the engineering, procurement, construction, commissioning and hook-up work of a very large crude carrier (VLCC)-sized floating storage and offloading vessel for the Banyu Urip project in Indonesia. Mr Ong Poh Kwee, Managing Director of Sembawang Shipyard said “We are very proud to be part of the project. We are committed to work closely with all partners involved in this milestone project for a successful outcome. We believe that with our expertise, we will be able to achieve the desired expectations, in order to help the government of Indonesia in fulfilling the national priority with respect to energy needs.” The vessel is expected to be deployed in offshore Tuban for the Banyu Urip Project, located in East Java, Indonesia. The engineering, procurement, and construction of the project is to be completed 27 months after contract award. The contract is not expected to have any material impact on the earnings per share and net tangible assets of Sembcorp Marine for the year ending December 31, 2011. Sembcorp Marine’s subsidiary SembawangCompany Registration Number: 196300098Z 2 About Sembawang Shipyard Sembawang Shipyard, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Sembcorp Marine, has one of the largest integrated ship repair facilities in Southeast Asia. The shipyard's world-class reputation is based on the company's commitment to high quality standards, Health, Safety and Environment standards, timely delivery, superior customer service and innovative solutions. Besides its proven expertise in the sectors of tankers, bulk carriers and container / cargo vessels, the shipyard is also recognized as a specialist in the niche markets such as FSO / FPSO conversion, offshore upgrading, conversion and newbuilding, LNG carrier, passenger ship conversion / upgrading, damage repairs and repair of chemical tankers, liquefied gas carriers and navy ships. For media and analysts enquiries, please contact: Ms Judy Han Senior Vice President Investor Relations & Communications Tel : (65) 62627203 Fax : (65) 62610738 Email : judy@sembcorpmarine.com.sgWebsite : www.sembcorpmarine.com.sg |
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krisluke
Supreme |
28-Oct-2011 19:07
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Pivot: 2740 Our preference: Long positions above 2740 with targets @ 2915 & 3010 in extension. Alternative scenario: Below 2740 look for further downside with 2665 & 2576 as targets. Comment: the RSI is bullish and calls for further upside. Key levels 3100 3010 2915 2894 last 2740 2665 2576  |
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krisluke
Supreme |
28-Oct-2011 19:06
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Sembcorp Marine: Co. will record a $54.4m refund of tax in its income statement in due to the favourable tax assesment following the settlement of its disputed FX transactions. Grp has been allowed a deduction from its losses from this recorded in FY09 and FY09. As tax had provisionally been paid pending the decision and a refund will be received from IRAS in due course. Kim Eng note that if refunded by this financial yr, this reversal will provide a 7% boost to house forecast for FY11 to $808m. Stress that this is a one-time adjustment, but believe that it may be applied, if SMM so chooses, towards paying out its dividends. The $54.4m represents around 2.6c/share. Fundamentally, house remain sanguine on SMM's prospects and the potential for its share price recovery and keys Buy Call with $4.95 TP. |
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krisluke
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28-Oct-2011 19:04
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Sembcorp Marine (Flash): SembMarine and Indonesia's Scorpa Pranedya have landed long-awaited FSO contracts with ExxonMobil for the multi-billion dollar Banyu Urip oil projeject in Java. No official anncmt or details from SembMarine yet. Both companies have been in the running for the contracts. In Aug, ExxonMobil confirmed the award of the 1st EPC contract for the Banyu Urip to a consortium of Triparta Engineers & Samsung Engrg to build onshore facilities. |
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