It’s not going to look a lot like Christmas for ocean container lines this year, next year and even beyond that.
Although many have managed to staunch the bleeding of red ink that decimated their bottom lines earlier this year, the outlook for their financial recovery appears increasingly dubious in 2013. Instead, the cycle of ups and downs in the container trades is beginning to look even more like a yo-yo than in 2012, with rates going up and down with increasing speed.
The problem, of course, is the glut of vessel capacity hanging over the market. The overhang promises to grow next year, when the global container fleet is expected to increase 9.8 percent, following a 7.2 percent increase in 2012, according to industry analyst Alphaliner. But global demand for vessel space is estimated to grow only 4 to 6 percent in 2013, and is likely to fall again in the critical Asia-Europe trade, where it dropped 4.6 percent in 2012 because of the European recession.
The schedule of new ship deliveries begins to tail off in 2014 because carriers stopped ordering halfway through 2011, indicating that supply might come into balance with demand in 2015, unless carriers refrain from more ordering. But for many carriers, ordering new ships already is getting too irresistible to ignore.
“The temptation to order new ships is getting very strong because of the pricing and the performance,” said Peter Shaerf, managing director of AMA Capital Partners.
The price of new ships has never been so attractive. A new container ship capable of carrying 13,000 20-foot-equivalent units costs about $110 million now, compared with $165 million at their peak in the mid-2000s, when they were hovering around $10,000 a slot. Even a 9,000-TEU ship costs in the low- to mid-$80 million range now and has significantly lower fuel consumption than earlier versions.
“That’s why we are going to see some more orders in the next six months as more carriers come to realize the value of these new eco-ship designs,” Shaerf said. The lemming effect comes into play. When one starts, they all do it.”