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krisluke
Supreme |
19-Jan-2011 23:26
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Crude Palm Oil price trend sustainability Robust demand in the fourth quarter last year and lower than usual supply caused price to surge in October from RM2,700 to RM3,888 in three months. Total crude palm oil output for the month of October to December 2010 is 4.33 million tons, 15% lower than the same period period in 2009. Total export for October to December 2010 was almost the same as the previous year at 4.2 million tons. Price of CPO immediately pulled back from RM3,888 and now, two weeks later, is at RM3,680. The question now is whether the price of CPO is sustainable at current levels and whether it will break the record high price set in 2008. In October last year, I presented a paper on crude palm oil price forecast in an international palm oil trade conference in Kuala Lumpur organized by the Malaysian Palm Oil Council and Palm Oil Board (MPOC and MPOB) and forecasted that price would increase to RM3,600 by the first half of 2011 and I made the same forecast in Cairo, Egypt a month later. I did not expect the price to reach this level this fast. Now that it is already at this level and beyond, will the price start to consolidate? Fundamentally, exports may continue to be robust at least until February when Chinese celebrates Chinese New Year. Supply may continue to be tight because of severe weather conditions. These factors may support the current CPO price. The stronger Malaysian Ringgit against the US dollar also contributes to the support of the current CPO price trend. Technically, CPO price is still in an uptrend. Price is supported well by the short, medium and long term 30, 60 and 90 day moving averages since September last year. So far, the up trend is supported well by the short term 30-day moving average. Since September last year, the price rebounded from this moving average three times in October, November and December last year. Now, CPO price is at this moving average while the 60 and 90-day moving averages are at RM3,440 and RM3,200 respectively. I would expect price to rebound from current level but not too optimistic about price climbing higher than RM3,880. This is because the momentum indicators, which includes the Relative Strength Index (RSI), MACD and Momentum Oscillator, this time shows weaker up trend momentum as compared to the previous three price rebounds from the moving average. Furthermore, the weekly RSI is at a level similar to that in year 2008 when price peaked. Technically, there is a low chance for the current uptrend to continue and make new highs when the momentum gets weaker. weekly bursa 17th jan 2011 |
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rotijai
Supreme |
19-Jan-2011 23:07
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i am not si fu too.. just got 'killed' by my own greed many times.. so i always advise ppl to make smaller profit instead of losing $..
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icetomato
Elite |
19-Jan-2011 22:51
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you know how those fortune tellers can help people see their path... but always cannot save themselves....
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muifan
Master |
19-Jan-2011 22:50
Yells: "Take the leap of faith dont regret 20 years later!" |
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Good luck, I wont be around for 2 days, guess I wont be putting in stop loss. Hope for the best be positive! cheers, mf
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icetomato
Elite |
19-Jan-2011 22:43
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Hey you, calling me? don't call me sifu lah. I so bu gan dang. Yup queued last Fri and got it (STXOSV). I sold too. Bladez and roti sifu suggested one (haha arrow them if anything happens). Always got to queue first then the rest leave it to fate till I have time to check recently.
Ok lah. Hope market crash more when I have more time to monitor. Did someone mentioned before around end of Jan will have good buys? Or I remembered wrongly? CNY coming, will be dead period or not?
I also queued and got some Noble. Yesterday. 2.30. Clueless on the direction it's heading. This morning no time queue sell. Dangerous. Tsk...
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muifan
Master |
19-Jan-2011 22:27
Yells: "Take the leap of faith dont regret 20 years later!" |
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Totally agree with you,
but I always practice the opposite and thus is very bad habbit, I always think of a trade with the itention to contra. Must stop this nonsense.
I feel the biggest enemy in trading is actually ourselves , haizz.
mf
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james87
Veteran |
19-Jan-2011 22:27
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lol...I also vested YZJ at 2.06. Right, shall see tml. cut loss if have to...haiz
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muifan
Master |
19-Jan-2011 22:22
Yells: "Take the leap of faith dont regret 20 years later!" |
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Just came home from makan , and found out I tio makan by YZJ.
Anyway I was vested $2.06, so you got a better price.
DO not worry for now cause no one knows what will happen tomorrow, might rebound become $2.10 or sinking of the titanic to $1.96 , be positive.
Hope my SGX become $9 !
cheers,
mf
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iPunter
Supreme |
19-Jan-2011 21:39
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One should contra a trade (cash) when a good profit is quickly made. Unless one is highly experienced, one should not enter a trade with the intention to contra . This is the most common reason for losses of newbies. .. |
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Breakout
Member |
19-Jan-2011 21:18
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hi daniel thanks for the reply. well.. am using cfd to buy it got 10 lots nia.. haha.. alrdy holding for 2 weeks plus.. since it formed a triple top just a few days ago the resistance shld be quite strong at 0.305 rite? think i know wad to do liao.. thanks!
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Leinadgnow
Senior |
19-Jan-2011 21:15
Yells: "Retired" |
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i hardly use 50% fib line unless on a trend to see if it might be a possible bounce point or a signal for me to go long or short.. however, that said, 61.8 and 32.8 are usually a much better bounce points as compared to the 50% .. this is base on my own experience trading and i suggest you seek other people's advice if you plan on trading the 50% fib line.
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Leinadgnow
Senior |
19-Jan-2011 21:13
Yells: "Retired" |
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Hi break out.. do you have the money to hold? if you do then hold it cause usually when the economy does well it will all appreciate..
If you are playing contra or you feel that you cna use the money else where to invest then i suggest you get out.... 0.29 is the support currrently for gmg .. unfortunately for you.. macd is on the down tick and so is stochs, momentum and rsi. 5,8,21 ema downwards ... 20,62,200 also downwards.. breach the support at 0.29 and it goes to 0.28 ...
what is your stop loss or your current investment in this gmg? if whatever y ou have place inside and the loss is more then 3% i suggest you get out.
This is my own financial opinion.. i am neither a certified financial analyst or broker much less a seer.. use the advice at your own risk :)
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iPunter
Supreme |
19-Jan-2011 20:30
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Since no one knows the trend, a trend can only be assumed. Since a trend is only an assumed fact (by the application of extrapolation, intelligent deduction and a hoard of other 'pointers', no one can be sure of the final outcome, regardless of time-frame. And this is the very reason why the concept and practice of 'stop-loss' or 'cut-loss' have come into existence. Because long-term holders ostensibly do not mind having big losses in a downtrend, they will not be keen about stop loss, since any loss is still painful to them. Because of the bigger risks they take, they deserve bigger gains... |
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Breakout
Member |
19-Jan-2011 19:55
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hi daniel.. can u advice on GMG, Ziwo and china gx for the moment? most impt is gmg dunno if shld cut loss coz i got it at 0.315.. appreciate your help! =) |
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krisluke
Supreme |
19-Jan-2011 18:40
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leinadgnow, what do you think of fib 50%. I read an article that if price is in an lasting uptrend / downtrend. 50% fibos would be the "lifeline" meaning may either to 61.8 % or 32.8 %. which could mean a possible buy/sell if violate the 50% fibos. I think your 8 sma (fast) vs 21ema (slow).. .. maybe i go and study on this setting : ) | ||||
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eastcivic
Elite |
19-Jan-2011 18:31
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hmmm thanks! i'll go read up..... i actually use 8 sma and 21 sma..... but not because of fibo retracement values.... thanks! i learn something new today! :D
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Leinadgnow
Senior |
19-Jan-2011 18:26
Yells: "Retired" |
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gaecia.. why u make me sound so mean? :( East civic.. . cause 8 SMA and 21 EMA are both fibonacci retracement values.. go read more about them :D i think they make good support/resistances. |
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eastcivic
Elite |
19-Jan-2011 18:09
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lol i very curious ma.....
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Gaecia
Elite |
19-Jan-2011 18:05
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u will get an earful from him.
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eastcivic
Elite |
19-Jan-2011 18:02
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8 and 21 ema? i think not many people use 8 and 21..... no offence intended..... just a curious remark here... :D
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