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Dow Outlook
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
01-Aug-2013 16:34
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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European stocks rise after Fed, China data ....LONDON (MarketWatch) -- European stock markets posted solid gains at the open on Thursday, after the U.S. Federal Reserve kept its multibillion-dollar bond-buying program in place and China data signaled an improvement in the manufacturing sector. The Stoxx Europe 600 index added 0.6% to 301.27. Shares of Lloyds Banking Group PLC picked up 4.9% after a well-received earnings report, while Societe Generale SA rallied 5.6% after saying second-quarter profit more than doubled. On a more downbeat note, shares of Royal Dutch Shell PLC dropped 4% after the oil firm reported a drop in second-quarter profit. Among country-specific indexes, the U.K.'s FTSE 100 index rose 0.4% to 6,646.64, while France's CAC 40 index added 0.2% to 3,999.42. Germany's DAX 30 index picked up 0.7% to 8,335.37. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
01-Aug-2013 10:08
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Stocks are hot, so what can go wrong? ...." So what could possibly go wrong?" That's the question Don Rissmiller of Strategas Research Partners posed in a report. It's a good question, given that the Dow Jones industrials nearly set another record closing high Wednesday. While he says he isn't ringing an alarm bell yet, here's his list of worries: 1. Weaker U.S. productivity. It's by no means a major problem now, but if productivity comes under pressure, so will profits and profit margins. 2. Fed tapering. The central bank insists slowing its bond purchases is not akin to tighter policy, but Wall Street keeps linking the two, so Fed-related volatility could persist. 3.Euro bank stocks. Recent political scares in places such as Portugal and Italy that threaten " austerity" and " aid packages" is a reminder that " contagion" risk remains, despite the European Central Bank's commitment to support markets. 4. Emerging markets. Rising rates and a stronger U.S. dollar is creating " additional challenges" in emerging markets that export commodities. 5. Geopolitics. The Egypt crisis is a reminder that risk of an oil price jump remains. " Military risk" is also real, given events in North Korea. 6. China slowdown. " Years of slower growth may lie ahead," he says. 7. U.S. housing market. The " housing is bottoming" story has been durable, but the " rise in interest rates creates some risk." " We're monitoring signs of strain, but for (now), we favor a 'risk-on' trade outside of commodities and emerging markets," Rissmiller says. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
01-Aug-2013 09:00
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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U.S. stocks post July gains after Fed decision ....
Better-than-expected economic reports precede Federal ReserveNEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S. stocks on Wednesday ended little changed, but posted monthly gains, after the Federal Reserve offered few clues on potential changes to its monetary policy. After a two-day meeting, the FOMC kept its bond-buying program unchanged at $85 billion a month and said the economy was expanding at a “modest” pace, a change from the “moderate” pace seen in June. “The main change in the statement appears to be greater recognition of the risk of deflation,” emailed Marc Chandler, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman. “With many observers expecting the Fed to taper in September, disappointment that there was nothing in the statement to support such ideas has seen the dollar fall and stocks and bonds trade higher,” he added. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 21.05 points, or 0.1%, to 15,499.54. The blue-chip index had risen as high as 15,634.32, clearing intraday and closing records reached Tuesday of last week. The Dow rose 4% for July, its eighth monthly rise in nine. “It’s all about the Fed today and then the employment report on Friday,” noted Nick Raich, CEO at the Earnings Scout. The Labor Department will release its July nonfarm-payrolls report on Friday morning. Posting a 5% monthly gain, the S& P 500 index fell a fraction to 1,685.73, with consumer discretionary leading sector gains. The S& P 500 rose to an intraday high of 1,698.43, putting it above its record close of 1,695.78 set last Monday and a fraction below its intraday record of 1,698.78, set the following day. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 9.90 points, or 0.3%, to 3,626.37, leaving it up 6.6% for its best monthly performance since January 2012. Advancers ran just ahead of decliners on the New York Stock Exchange, where 903 million shares traded. Composite volume cleared 3.8 billion. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
31-Jul-2013 21:17
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Three big trends to replace the BRICS .... First, technology. We have already been through one huge wave of technological change, with the rise of computers, the Internet and smartphones. But perhaps we are only just getting stated? Computing is about to transform some very big industries. Such as? The driverless car is on the horizon. Businesses don’t get much bigger than automobiles, but history suggests that it will not be established players like Volkswagen or Toyota that make the running in computer-controlled cars but completely new companies. Traditional broadcast television is about to be taken apart by web-based streaming services — and if TV is blown up, the advertising agencies will not be far behind. E-books are changing the publishing industry, and retail is dying on its feet. The latest wave of technology-driven change will throw up a huge range of new companies — and create incredible opportunities for the investors who get in early. It will make the dot-com bubble of the 1990s look like a practice run. Second, mega-caps. In the 1960s, the markets were obsessed with the Nifty Fifty — a small group of companies that could dominate the world. A new group of mega-caps is emerging. The likes of Apple, Amazon, Samsung and Google are acquiring a global reach and power that makes the General Motors of the 1950s look like a corner-shop operation. Over the next few years, they may well start to achieve a position of dominance in the market, and an ability to set prices, that promises to deliver stellar returns for a generation to come. We have already seen it to some extent with Apple. Apply the same logic to a group of companies — the dominant dozen — and a huge investment theme could emerge. Finally, Africa. A young, fast-growing population. Rising educational standards. Rapid industrialization. A generation ago, that was a description of much of Asia, but these days it applies to sub-Saharan Africa. The region is currently growing at 6% annually, according to World Bank figures — just slightly slower than developed Asia, and faster than any other region in the world. Five of the 10 fastest growing economies in the world are in Africa (Sierra Leone tops the list with 18.2% growth, in case you were wondering). Big countries like Nigeria and Kenya are reaching the takeoff point where growth is self-sustaining. No other geographical theme has the same potential. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
31-Jul-2013 17:09
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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As the world turns, BRICs no longer a slam dunk ....Once the darling of financial markets, the tables appear to have " flipped" for BRIC nations, analysts say, with one market watcher predicting a recession for the economies once famous for their fast growth. Emerging countries such as Brazil, Russia, India and China, often referred to as the BRICS, have dominated stock markets with stellar gains in the past decade, but their performance year-to-date has been miserable. Instead, it's the developed equity markets that have taken the spotlight this year, with many raking in double-digit gains. " I think we've had a really strong bull market in emerging markets for many years. That era has ended and now, we're going to get a very long bull market in European and American stocks," said Clem Chambers, CEO of financial services website ADVFN. " The BRIC story is over and the BRICS will go into recession. Like all things, there's always a party going on somewhere and the party's going to be in America and as an off-set, in Europe." So far this year, both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S& P 500 index have notched up gains of over 18%. In Europe, London's FTSE 100 index has rallied 11% and the Spanish Ibex is up 3.5%. In contrast, China's Shanghai Composite is down 12%, Brazil's Bovespa has plunged over 20% and the MSCI emerging market index has shed about 10%. According to Shane Oliver, chief economist at AMP Capital, the improving conditions in the developed world are occurring even as headwinds build in the developing world, in what he has identified as a new " secular trend." " With the U.S., Europe and Japan rebuilding after a horrible decade (or two in the case of Japan), the key emerging market countries are looking a bit less bright," said Oliver said in a note published on Wednesday. " Risks around the Chinese economy appear to have increased after several years of rapid debt growth," Oliver wrote, while " India, Brazil and Indonesia appear to be facing a less attractive growth and inflation [outlook]." South America and Russia, meanwhile, are vulnerable to " the less favorable outlook for commodity prices," he added. Oliver stressed that the shift in secular patterns doesn't signal alarm bells, but should prompt investors to be more selective in their emerging market picks. " In particular commodity users such as the Asian region are generally more attractive than commodity suppliers such South America and Russia," he said. Chambers at ADVFN was more bearish, saying that he expected the investor shift away from the BRICS towards the world's major economies to be a long-term trend. " The new long-term trend will be ascending first-world in the same way as the old long term trend was descending first-world and an ascending BRICS. That has flipped now, and you'll see China under pressure for a long time, India random as usual and Brazil in recession," he said. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
31-Jul-2013 08:40
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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U.S. stocks edge up, led by technology sector ....
Nasdaq Composite is poised for best month since January 2012NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S. stocks ended slightly higher Tuesday, with the Nasdaq Composite positioned for its best monthly performance since January 2012, as investors mostly adopted a cautious tone a day ahead of a monetary-policy decision from the Federal Reserve. Of the 304 companies that have reported earnings results for the second quarter, 201 have beaten estimates, 76 have missed, and 27 have met, producing a a beat rate of 66%, above the historical average, according to research by Christine Short, an associate director S& P Capital IQ. “Earnings so far are better than expected, but we haven’t seen much in the way of revenue figures,” said Robert Pavlik, chief market strategist at Banyan Partners LLC. After a 72-point gain and a 43-point drop, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended off 1.38 points at 15,520.59. The S& P 500 index advanced nearly 1 point to 1,685.96, with technology leading sector gains and telecommunications falling hardest. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 17.33 points, or 0.5%, to 3,616.47, with the technology laden index up 6.3% for July, on track for its best monthly performance since January 2012. Advancers pulled just ahead of decliners on the New York Stock Exchange, where almost 678 million shares traded. Composite volume neared 3.3 billion. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
30-Jul-2013 16:46
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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European stocks solid after German data, earningsLONDON (MarketWatch) — European stock markets showed broad-based gains on Tuesday, boosted by upbeat German consumer-confidence data and as investors digested earnings reports from prominent firms such as UBS AG, Alcatel-Lucent and Barclays PLC. The Stoxx Europe 600 index gained 0.5% to 300.49, on track for a second straight day of gains. ...more... |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
30-Jul-2013 16:20
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
30-Jul-2013 09:50
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Has the drop to S& P 1500 begun?By Avi Gilburt As we were expecting a market pullback this past week, our expectations were clearly met. As for the larger decline toward 1500, we have no confirmation that it has begun. Therefore, we must still expect at least one more push higher before the larger decline takes hold. In last week’s chart, I presented the 1695 Fibonacci extension as the next level of resistance, which clearly held this market in check, for now. Based upon our primary count, our expected wave iv pullback was seen this past week, and now we are left with the question as to whether it has completed. On the one hand, we pulled back just below the .236 retracement of wave iii, which is usually a minimum target for a 4th wave. However, the pullback has not looked like a standard a-b-c corrective pullback which is complete. ...more... |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
30-Jul-2013 08:50
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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U.S. stocks drop as investors await Fed, data ....NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S. stocks started the week on a down note, posting a modest decline Monday as home sales fell in the wake of higher mortgage rates and investors nervously awaited more data later in the week and a meeting of Federal Reserve policy makers. Losses were limited, however, as a round of weekend deal making fanned hopes for a pickup in merger-and-acquisition activity in the second half of the year, while moving shares of retailer Saks Inc., drug maker Perrigo Co. and advertising firm Omnicom Group Inc. The S& P 500 Index fell 6.32 points, or 0.4%, to settle at 1,685.33, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 36.86 points, or 0.2%, to end at 15,521.97. The Nasdaq Composite declined 14.02 points, or 0.4%, to 3,599.14. Dow and S& P remain camped out just below record highs, while the Nasdaq is near a 13-year high. Overall, market action remains “very healthy and very constructive,” though the market’s reaction to upcoming data will be very telling, said Adam Sarhan, chief executive of Sarhan Capital, in a phone interview. |
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stockmarketmind
Master |
27-Jul-2013 08:56
Yells: "stockmarketmindgames" |
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The rebound in Dow! http://stockmarketmindgames.blogspot.sg/2013/07/dow-jones-dire-rebound.html |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
27-Jul-2013 08:53
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Markets close with slight gains after rough morning ....Major stock indexes closed with slight gains on Friday after investors digested a batch of mixed earnings reports and benchmark stock indexes recovered from steep drops in morning trading. The Dow Jones industrial average index was up 3.22 points to 15,558.83 at closing time. The Dow lost almost 150 points earlier in the day, but made up for the losses in later trading. The S& P 500 index was up 1.4 points, 0.1%, to 1,691.65 and the Nasdaq composite index rose 7.97 points, 0.2%, to 3,613.16. Trading has been quiet in recent days as a lot of people wait for next week's meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee for guidance on the tapering of U.S. government bond purchases. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
26-Jul-2013 20:59
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Q: What to do if I'm afraid of the bull market?  Can I still make money? ....A: Being afraid of the stock market has become very expensive. Investors who panicked and sold out of stocks at the bottom in March 9, 2009, and were too afraid to get back in, missed out on a monster 150% rally. Ironically, the investors who were fearful not only missed a chance to repair their bear market losses, but were left out of big gains. And now that the market has soared, many of these same investors are fearful for different reasons. Investors might think they missed the bull market and that it's too late to get back in. Yes, you can still make money from the market's rally. While the market is not as cheap as it was, the valuation is reasonable and earnings stable. The only way to combat your fear, and still make money in stocks, though, is to create a portfolio of diversified investments that has an expected volatility you can live with. By mixing U.S. stocks with bonds and foreign investments in different portions, you can get a pretty good idea of how volatile a portfolio will be. If you create a prudent portfolio and stick with it, you can allow yourself to make money in stocks and leave your fear behind. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
26-Jul-2013 09:29
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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U.S. stocks rise Facebook buoys Nasdaq Composite ....NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S. stocks rose on Thursday, with the Nasdaq Composite propelled by a surge in Facebook Inc.’s shares after the social-networking company reported better-than-expected results. The Nasdaq Composite gained 25.59 points, or 0.7%, to end at 3,605.19, as Facebook’s shares rallied nearly 30% to end at $34.36, bringing them within $4 of their initial public offering price of $38. The company reported late Wednesday quarterly results that topped expectations and demonstrated significant progress in its mobile-advertising business. The S& P 500 index gained 4.31 points, or 0.3%, to 1,690.25, with materials the best performing among its 10 major sectors. “We got up to just under 1,700 here this week, and had trouble breaking through. From a technical perspective, we need to pause or consolidate a little,” said Phil Orlando, equity market strategist at Federated Investors, referring to the S& P 500, which on Monday finished at a record 1,695.53. “We just enjoyed a 9% rally over a space of the last month or so. Do we have the ability to sustain a 3-7% correction over the next couple of months? The answer is yes,” said Orlando. “The rise in interest rates is a positive reflection of the sustainability of the recovery and moving to expansion,” said David Koenig, investment strategist with Russell Indexes. After falling nearly 87 points, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended up 13.37 points, or 0.1%, at 15,555.61. It posted a record close of 15,567.74 on Tuesday. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
25-Jul-2013 08:50
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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U.S. stocks retreat on mixed earnings ....NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S. stocks declined on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average retreating from the prior day’s record close, amid mixed earnings and rising borrowing costs. “People are naturally going to be a little skeptical. We’re at all-time highs yet signals from companies are somewhat mixed,” said JJ Kinahan, chief strategist at TD Ameritrade. Utilities were hardest hit among the S& P 500 sectors, and only technology remained in positive turf, drawing support from Apple Inc.. In its first back-to-back drop in nearly five weeks, the S& P 500 declined 6.45 points, or 0.4%, to 1,685.94, after rising to an intraday high of 1,698.38, which had it above its all-time finish of 1,695.52 set on Monday. “We got over 1,690 this morning, so we’re in incredible territory as far as the market is concerned,” said Kinahan. A jump in bond yields was a likely factor in U.S. stocks relinquishing gains, noted Peter Boockvar, chief market analyst at the Lindsey Group LLC. Rising for a second session, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note used in determining mortgage rates and other consumer loans rose 11 basis points to 2.583%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 25.50 points, or 0.2%, to end at 15,542.24. It had started higher after Tuesday’s record close, its 28th so far this year. The Nasdaq Composite added a fraction to 3,579.60. Decliners outran advancers more than three to one on the New York Stock Exchange, where 676 million shares traded. Composite volume surpassed 3.3 billion. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
24-Jul-2013 20:37
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
24-Jul-2013 08:44
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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U.S. stocks end mostly lower Dow rises to record ....NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S. stocks ended mostly lower on Tuesday after a decline in a regional manufacturing gauge prompted concern, but the Dow industrials climbed to a record close. Snapping a four-session winning streak, the S& P 500 index fell 3.14 points, or 0.2%, to 1,692.39, with information technology leading losses and telecommunications leading gains among its 10 major sectors. The S& P 500 rose to its 23rd record close this year on Monday. The Nasdaq Composite lost 21.11 points, or 0.6%, to end at 3,579.27 on Tuesday. After a 58-point climb to an intraday record of 15,604.22, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended up 22.19 points, or 0.1%, at 15,567.74, its 28th record close this year. More than 620 million shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange. Composite volume topped 3 billion. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
23-Jul-2013 17:23
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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...Three Green again.... 
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
23-Jul-2013 09:09
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Dow can't seem to drop! .... Dear Friends, DOW today again inch up 16.66 points now at mid noon US time. It just can't seem to drop and this is an indication of bullishness in the market. Like what I did mention last friday when interviewed on radio, we should take the opportunity to enter the market on this bullishness. There are a few reasons for this bullishness. 1) We are entering into a season of earnings. This will take eyes off the global problems. Wallstreet is too occupied covering the companies reports than focus on negative news. 2) The earnings so far shown is relatively good. Though there are a few hiccups to tech companies like Google, Microsoft and Intel, the other companies are doing quite well. Especially the financial sector! The Banks are doing terrifically well this quarter. Good for Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo etc. Almost no banks fail to beat the market this time. 3) Funds are flowing from treasury to stocks 4) The Non farm payroll and the ISM reports are good this month. Confidence are always high when these 2 reports are terrific! So to me, it is obvious that the market can't seem to drop. In fact, even if it does, try to buy into the drop. Any 2-3% drop would be a terrific opportunity to buy into it now. Rgds Daniel www.danielloh.com |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
23-Jul-2013 09:02
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Stocks end slightly higher, S& P 500 sets record ....Stocks ended Monday slightly higher as the S& P 500 closed at an all-time record high -- again. The Dow Jones industrial average finished up 1.81 points to 15,545.55, about 3 points from an all-time high. A disappointing profit report from McDonald's, a Dow component, sent the fast-food chain's shares 2.7% lower Monday. The S& P 500 closed up 3.44 points to 1,695.53, and the tech-laden Nasdaq composite index ended up 12.78 points, 0.4%, to 3,600.39 as Wall Street prepares for earnings reports from social media giant Facebook and device maker Apple later this week. |
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