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Cruising with the ship ..Yangzijiang Post Reply Rate topic
ascend88 Senior	23-Oct-2013 10:32        ascend88 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	1.20.....nice....
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Hawkeye Veteran	20-Oct-2013 23:29        Hawkeye About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	YZJ seals kamsarmax series Singapore-listed and China's private-owned Yangzijiang Shipbuilding turns out to have penned a contract to build up to six kamsarmax bulkers from the UK shipowner Graig Shipping. Graig placed an order at Yangzijiang for two firm 82,000 dwt bulkers for 2015 and 2016 delivery terms, which contains four options, reported TradeWinds. Newbuilding price is said to be coming at $27.60m apiece. Considering the current market level reaching above $28m apiece, the contract seems to have been inked a few months ago. The Chinese shipbuilder is showing dynamic newbuilding activities with $2.1bn new orders inked so far this year, reaching its yearly order target, $2bn, for 2013. Published : October 15, 2013 moneycow      ( Date: 17-Oct-2013 11:03) Posted: Small volume. Shortist 's work .
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moneycow Master	17-Oct-2013 11:03        moneycow About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Small volume. Shortist 's work .
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bookwormy Member	17-Oct-2013 10:45        bookwormy About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Debt ceiling raised, U.S. govt is back in business!
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bookwormy Member	17-Oct-2013 09:38        bookwormy About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Good morning 1.19!
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ascend88 Senior	16-Oct-2013 17:17        ascend88 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	closed 1.185....nice
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ascend88 Senior	16-Oct-2013 16:52        ascend88 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	16:51:12 1.185 153,000 A 16:51:10 1.185 136,000 A
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ascend88 Senior	16-Oct-2013 16:34        ascend88 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	selling for the whole day....still at 1.18/1.185.... solid ah....wonder today got bb go and short this counter at 1.185/1.19...??
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dippyboy Member	16-Oct-2013 16:33        dippyboy About Contact  Quote this Post!   Yells: "Plsdoyourownhomework.Personalopinion,Disclaimerapplies."
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Guys you got to do your own homework.   P/S : Do you know why it can hit < 28c?   Ans: Because there is still so many blindsided bulls left to sell.      Good luck!
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ascend88 Senior	16-Oct-2013 10:29        ascend88 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	yeah... :)....bro cheong ah .... cheongsl      ( Date: 16-Oct-2013 09:27) Posted: calling me :) ascend88      ( Date: 16-Oct-2013 09:02) Posted: cheong ah ....1.185...
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frozentouch Member	16-Oct-2013 10:23        frozentouch About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Cheongsl: I like your name. Lol
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cheongsl Master	16-Oct-2013 09:27        cheongsl About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	calling me :) ascend88      ( Date: 16-Oct-2013 09:02) Posted: cheong ah ....1.185...
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Oldbird Senior	16-Oct-2013 09:13        Oldbird About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Hi Frozen , You are probably right for your workout.. Here are some data I pulled from ppt 2Q 13. HTM n Micro finance revenue 394M (1Q), 383M (2Q) RMB For total HTM asset of 12,156M Which is about 10% gross return, including finance cost n impairement should be around 7.5% YZJ Also enjoys some exchange gain since they borrow in SGD/ USD ~ 1 to 2 % loan inRMB... frozentouch      ( Date: 16-Oct-2013 01:40) Posted: Hi Dippyboy I can't get the info on the HTM returns in the 2Q2013 report, so I have computed based on Annual Report 2012. Revenue from HTM is 1,096,331,000 RMB (Note 4 AR 2012), impairment of held-to-maturity financial assets is 98,970,000RMB (Note 39 AR2012), interest expenses is 23,037,000RMB and impairment loss on loan to a non-related party is 132,198,000RMB (Note 39 AR2012). So the net return is 842,126,000 RMB. The total HTM asset is 11,376,710,000 RMB (Note 16 AR2012). So the net return percentage is 84,2126,000RMB/ 11,376,710,000 RMB = 7.4% Care to share which data you use to derive 1-3%?
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cheongsl Master	16-Oct-2013 09:09        cheongsl About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	US debt ceiling is political issue, but US debt can't be resolve by just continously increase the debt ceiling. It will finally turn into default which will affect all parties. The one with credit bubble is US not China currently. China is the Main holder of this credit bubble, thus will be seriously affect if it really happen. But before you comment on their HTM as risky, please provide the HTM portfolio that their are investing in. Gross return net off financial cost and impairments. Do you have the breakdown? It is not shown in the annual report, and by taking the borrowing to net off, it is not accurate since you can't really identify the borrowing is for HTM, shipbuilding, investing (like purchase of Xinfu), etc. but you are consolidate all the burrowing  interest to HTM. and also the impairment loss? foreign exchange loss??by HTM?? should be ship building etc. and what about the interest gain, it seems that it is ignored. Unless you have the full accounting book otherwise the % of return will be totally inaccurate. Since it have breakup the company into 2 units which is shipbuilding unit and investment unit. By the way why do you think by investing the HTM sum will be able to monopolise China shipyard. There are many big shipbuilding company in China. Eg China Shipbuilding indutry (601989), which build navy ship and commercial ship. Do you think Yang have the financial to take over? dippyboy      ( Date: 15-Oct-2013 22:30) Posted: Hi, i happen to think exactly the opposite. US debt ceiling is a political problem which will eventually be resolved. Moreover it is just a systemic risk not that relevant relative to YZJ unlike a specific material business risk of the HTM portfolio in YZJ. My opinion is that the HTM portfolio cannot be redeemed at will in shortperiod. The net returns of the HTM portfolio does not commensurate with the risk since gross returns needs to net off finance cost and impairments . I get estimates like 1-3% net returns which is laughable since one can put it in RMB FD for the same returns risk free .No sane one would take so much risk for so little a return. The money.....   its like it can only be seen but not retrieved or used , its stuck! and will implode on a eventual systemic credit crisis forcing massive impairment writeoffs. Additionally, using common sense strategic thinking ,   such a massive portfolio could always be used to acquire the current countless high quality distressed shipyards and to entrench and become the leading monopoly shipyard however it is wasted in mindless speculation. What a waste...... cheongsl      ( Date: 15-Oct-2013 07:35) Posted: Personally, I don't feel that China Credit and property is having bubble, and it is still under well control by the China government. But the US debt ceiling can post a treat to China existing problem, which might turn it into uncontrollable situation. China as the major debt holder will be seriously affect if US really default
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kenkenken Senior	16-Oct-2013 09:03        kenkenken About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Although im still waiting for your spaceship contract, I have to praise you that you are very resourceful and hardworking and getting all those article.   samson      ( Date: 15-Oct-2013 10:59) Posted: China: Shipbuilding industry struggles to keep head above water Monday, 14 October 2013 | 00:00Chinese shipbuilders have been sailing toward bankruptcy in recent years, with China trying to consolidate the industry and bail it out from the woe of overcapacity.With delays in deliveries, order cancellations and price decreases for newly-built vessels, shipbuilding firms have been in a slump since late 2008, when the global financial system was in free fall.Cash-strapped shipping companies froze expansion plans by scrapping or delaying orders. The euro crisis from late 2009 made the situation even worse.Statistics from China Association of National Shipbuilding Industry showed in the first half of 2013, 80 major enterprises made a combined business revenue of 120.3 billion yuan (19.6 billion U.S. dollars), down 18.5 percent year on year. Total profit dropped 53.6 percent to 3.58 billion yuan.In terms of production, it is estimated there will be a fall of around 50 percent in 2013, according to a Ministry of Finance report in August."The color of the industry was gray in 2011. It was black last year. For this year, it's red, bloody red," said Chen Qiang, president of Rongsheng Heavy Industries Group Co., China's largest private shipbuilder. Operating revenue for 2012 at the company stood at 7.9 billion yuan (1.29 billion U.S. dollars), down 50 percent year on year.China's shipbuilding industry was in a "golden age" in 2004, when shipyards, especially those with private investment like Rongsheng, mushroomed as a symbol of the country's booming economy.Before 2000, the number of shipyards in China were in the hundreds. The industry quickly ballooned to more than 3,000 by 2007 under a "get-rich-quick" mindset. China entered the world's top three in terms of shipbuilding, together with Japan and the Republic of Korea (ROK).Now, the industry is a shadow of its former self.Though bankruptcies remain rare despite mounting losses even at well-connected state-owned firms, many are teetering on the brink.In eastern China's Jiangsu Province, the country's largest ship builder, companies have been warned that if there are no new orders, the backlog will merely be enough to "feed" enterprises for another two years.According to the provincial commission of economy and information technology, ship completion and current orders in Jiangsu dropped by 32.9 percent and 17.5 percent year on year respectively in the first half of 2013. Among 66 shipbuilding enterprises, only 23 received new orders.Even those with orders are not positive."Profit margins are already razor thin as prices are being pushed down," said Tang Yong, chief financial officer of Dayang Shipbuilding Co., Ltd. in Yangzhou.The price for a new ship is the lowest in a decade, said Tang.Many firms are not willing to go out of business, as China lacks a bankruptcy mechanism to allow creditors to be compensated. Many believe the one that sticks it out stays alive."The industry itself is a ship so bloated that a slimming plan is in dire need to shift it in the right direction," said Song Songxing, a business management professor with Jiangsu-based Nanjing University."If not, low-end products will continue snowballing until it drags down the whole industry," said Song.Li Yanqing, director of China Shipbuilding Information Center, said low value-added products like bulk carriers, oil tankers and container ships, dominated shipyards. Li said Chinese shipbuilders were far behind Japan and the ROK in production management, work efficiency and developing high value-added products for ocean engineering projects."Chinese ship builders are competing fiercely with each other on the easy-to-make-but-cheap products, while few are willing to invest in the development of high-end products, which is no good for the long-term health of the industry," said Li.SIGNPOST ON THE SEAThe central government has also identified the need for deeper structural reform to remedy the inefficient and debt-laden industry.The State Council, or China's cabinet, issued a three-year plan to consolidate the industry in August, which includes measures to halt approvals for new shipbuilding projects and freeze credit support for expansion of facilities.Meanwhile, the cabinet has vowed to prioritize the development of ocean engineering products, for example deepwater drill ships and rigs, which there is a rising global need for as the world seeks energy resources from the sea.Chinese yards are trying to tap into the ocean engineering market, as advance payments and more bank credit are available.Chang Jianhua, Rongsheng's vice president, told Xinhua in August that the company plans to accelerate development of ocean engineering products, which is estimated to bring 40 percent of firm's total income by 2015.By then, the profit margin of Rongsheng's shipbuilding business is expected to rise to 20 percent from the current 5 to 10 percent. "The more difficulties, the more opportunities," said Chang.However, ocean engineering products demand high technology, which is an achilles' heel for the country's shipbuilders, especially private yards, said Ni Tao, general manager of the China Ocean Shipping Company."That's why most Chinese firms are subcontractors or co-builders in the international ocean engineering market," said Ni. "We need government support to develop ocean engineering products based on home-grown technology."Rongsheng invested heavily in a new research and development (R&D) hub in Singapore last year besides having one in Shanghai. It wants to combine foreign know-how with Chinese national identity to guarantee a sustainable revival."Traditionally, Singapore is a talent pool for ocean engineering product development and management. We set up the new R&D center there, which allows Rongsheng to speed up the product-development cycle," said Chen Qiang.Experts, however, warn that the government should stop micromanaging the industry while it upgrades. Instead, it should try to ensure the market runs smoothly by establishing a level playing field and stronger rules."To develop ocean engineering products is the right direction, but local governments should learn lessons from last time, when they blindly gave policy support to build new yards more than what were needed," said Song.Source: XinhuaNext articleBack to listPrevious 15/10/2013 00:00 - Zhenjiang Sopo Shipyard in financial dispute15/10/2013 00:00 - Drydocks World in Talks With Suez Canal Authority
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ascend88 Senior	16-Oct-2013 09:02        ascend88 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	cheong ah ....1.185...
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frozentouch Member	16-Oct-2013 01:40        frozentouch About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Hi Dippyboy I can't get the info on the HTM returns in the 2Q2013 report, so I have computed based on Annual Report 2012. Revenue from HTM is 1,096,331,000 RMB (Note 4 AR 2012), impairment of held-to-maturity financial assets is 98,970,000RMB (Note 39 AR2012), interest expenses is 23,037,000RMB and impairment loss on loan to a non-related party is 132,198,000RMB (Note 39 AR2012). So the net return is 842,126,000 RMB. The total HTM asset is 11,376,710,000 RMB (Note 16 AR2012). So the net return percentage is 84,2126,000RMB/ 11,376,710,000 RMB = 7.4% Care to share which data you use to derive 1-3%?
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dippyboy Member	16-Oct-2013 00:11        dippyboy About Contact  Quote this Post!   Yells: "Plsdoyourownhomework.Personalopinion,Disclaimerapplies."
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Net returns = gross returns from HTM- finance cost of borrowings- impairments
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frozentouch Member	15-Oct-2013 23:06        frozentouch About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Hi Dippyboy   May I know how did you derive the figure of 1-3% net returns.   I think I agree with you that since YZJ is winning orders compared to the order struggling shipyards in China, YZJ should  expand its capacity if the orders it is winning is outstripping its capacity.
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dippyboy Member	15-Oct-2013 22:30        dippyboy About Contact  Quote this Post!   Yells: "Plsdoyourownhomework.Personalopinion,Disclaimerapplies."
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Hi, i happen to think exactly the opposite. US debt ceiling is a political problem which will eventually be resolved. Moreover it is just a systemic risk not that relevant relative to YZJ unlike a specific material business risk of the HTM portfolio in YZJ. My opinion is that the HTM portfolio cannot be redeemed at will in shortperiod. The net returns of the HTM portfolio does not commensurate with the risk since gross returns needs to net off finance cost and impairments . I get estimates like 1-3% net returns which is laughable since one can put it in RMB FD for the same returns risk free .No sane one would take so much risk for so little a return. The money.....   its like it can only be seen but not retrieved or used , its stuck! and will implode on a eventual systemic credit crisis forcing massive impairment writeoffs. Additionally, using common sense strategic thinking ,   such a massive portfolio could always be used to acquire the current countless high quality distressed shipyards and to entrench and become the leading monopoly shipyard however it is wasted in mindless speculation. What a waste...... cheongsl      ( Date: 15-Oct-2013 07:35) Posted: Personally, I don't feel that China Credit and property is having bubble, and it is still under well control by the China government. But the US debt ceiling can post a treat to China existing problem, which might turn it into uncontrollable situation. China as the major debt holder will be seriously affect if US really default. dippyboy      ( Date: 15-Oct-2013 03:12) Posted:   China credit and property bubble is very serious and my opinion is that it will burst rather soon within the next few years depending on whether the govt postpones it with monetary policy or take the pill now. All these wealth management product which has   just been restricted from selling now and replaced with asset managment products plus the stalling real estate price is an indication of the end of unlimited credit and ponzi finance which marks the beginning of the end of the bubble. Exactly when it burst is anybodys guess .Joe zhang a veteran china shadow banker had written a book on the insider account of shadow banking which i recommend reading. The latest revelation of company director Yu Kebing taking the opportunity to dump his entire 55m shares during the recent 50% pushup of the stock is as clear a warning as it gets. All the upside is already priced in but not the downside. My price target < 28cents when the HTM bomb implodes. All other news is immaterial relative to the size of that. Good luck.
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