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Nikkei Outlook

guoyanyunyan
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02-Aug-2013 08:47

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Nikkei Opens Up On Dow's Record High, Dlr's Rise Vs Yen

TOKYO (NQN)--Tokyo stocks opened higher Friday, with the Nikkei Stock Average jumping 172 points to the upper-14,100 range, the highest level since July 26.

The Dow Jones industrial average hit an all-time high overnight in line with the release of improved economic gauges in the U.S. The dollar's rise to the mid-99 yen level is also prompting investors to buy a broad range of issues.

Sony Corp. and Sharp Corp. opened bid-only after the consumer electronics makers released their April-June earnings Thursday evening.

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guoyanyunyan
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01-Aug-2013 15:56

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Tokyo Shares End With Best Gain In 3 Weeks On China PMI, Earnings

Tokyo stocks posted strong gains Thursday as generally solid earnings reports, along with surprisingly good China manufacturing data helped the Nikkei Stock Average notch its best gain in three weeks.

The Nikkei added 337.45 points, or 2.5%, to 14,005.77, following the prior session's 1.5% fall, its best percentage gain since July 9.

The strong August start follows marginally lower monthly results in May, June, and July.

The Topix index of all the Tokyo Stock Exchange First Section issues added 31.69 points, or 2.8%, to 1,163.39, with all 33 subindexes ending in positive territory. ...more...

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guoyanyunyan
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01-Aug-2013 15:13

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Nikkei Stock Average(*Close)

14,005.77
+337.45 (+2.47%)
Open	13,674.50	(09:00)
High	14,005.77	(15:28)
Low	13,645.61	(09:14)

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guoyanyunyan
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01-Aug-2013 11:55

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China official PMI rises to 50.3 in July ....

China's manufacturing sector managed to stay in expansionary phase in July, according to official government data on Thursday, defying forecasts of a contraction.

Official manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 in the month from 50.1 in June, and better than a Reuters consensus estimate of 49.9. The key 50 threshold demarcates expansion from contraction.

The data drew swift reaction from markets. The Australian dollar, whose recent weakness has been attributed to the slowing growth in China, rose a quarter of a percent to trade at $0.8964.

China's Shanghai Composite rose 1.4% to a one-week high, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 1% to a two-month high.

According to Peter Morici, professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, the figure means China's economy isn't looking at bad as many doomsayers have warned, but stressed that the slight rise in the index doesn't mean things are looking up.

" Let's be clear. Things aren't looking terrible. (But) a movement of two-tenths of a percentage point in an index number, not even a hard number, is not statistically significant," said Morici on CNBC Asia's Squawk Box. " The markets will make something out of it, but I would read it as the same."

The official PMI data came even as a private gauge of manufacturing activity showed a far more downbeat picture.

The final reading of the HSBC China PMI, also released on Thursday, fell to an 11-month low of 47.7 in July from 48.2 in June, in line with its flash estimate released last week.

HSBC's Frederic Neumann puts the divergence in the readings to the different audiences in both surveys.

" That's an interesting divergence, you have it occasionally but this time it's interesting," said Neumann, managing director and co-head of Asian economics research at HSBC.

" What we had in China is stress in the financial system and that affects smaller companies more than state owned enterprises. Official PMI is more skewed to larger companies and the HSBC figure reflects the smaller companies and that is where you get this divergence," he added.

There have been increasing concerns of a credit squeeze in China in recent months, which saw the the benchmark seven-day repo rate surge to a record high of 11.2% in June.

On Tuesday, China's central bank attempted to ease tightening liquidity conditions by injecting cash into local money markets, after the repo rate spiked to 5%. The rate is currently holding at the 5% handle.

According to HSBC's Neumann, more stimulus measures will be coming.

" I think they [authorities] are getting cold feet. One of the risks is that the stress in the interbank market that you saw in past couple of months that hasn't completely vanished is impacting financial conditions, leading to further downside risk for growth," he said.

" So, I do think stimulus is needed. They are already being more supportive at least in rhetoric and that's what's really required to put a floor under growth," Neumann added.

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guoyanyunyan
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01-Aug-2013 10:51

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China manufacturing activity at 11-month low: HSBC ....

LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) -- A privately compiled gauge of China's manufacturing activity sank to an 11-month low, the index's publishers HSBC and Markit said Thursday.

The HSBC manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 47.7, down from June's final reading 48.2. The result contrasted with an official version of the manufacturing PMI, which unexpectedly rose to 50.3 from June's 50.1. Any reading above 50 indicates activity is expanding, and the July data marked the third straight month the HSBC registered contraction, and also the third month the two PMIs differed on whether factory activity was rising.

HSBC's PMI covers a smaller number of firms and focuses on smaller manufacturers, while the official PMI includes more of the large state-run firms. Some economists also pay more heed to the HSBC edition, seeing official Chinese data as more vulnerable to manipulation.

HSBC's survey also showed new orders falling at their fastest rate in almost a year, though pace of the contraction for new export orders slowed. Chinese stock markets showed little reaction to the data, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index still up 0.9%, off of a 1.1% gain before the HSBC report. The Shanghai Composite Index traded 0.8% higher. But Australia, which counts China as its top trading partner, saw its S& P/ASX 200 stock index fall 0.1%, swinging from a 0.3% rise pre-data. The Australian dollar was little moved by the HSBC numbers, trading at 89.73 U.S. cents.

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guoyanyunyan
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01-Aug-2013 09:37

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China PMI Rises 0.2 Point To 50.3 In July

HONG KONG (NQN)--China's purchasing managers index for July rose 0.2 point from June to 50.3, surpassing market expectations, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing reported Thursday.

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guoyanyunyan
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01-Aug-2013 08:48

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Nikkei Opens Tad Higher Ahead Of China PMI Release

TOKYO (NQN)--Tokyo stocks opened slightly higher Thursday, with the Nikkei Stock Average climbing 6 points to begin the day at 13,674 before hovering around Wednesday's close.

After Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. booked a sharp increase in the April-June profit Wednesday evening, investors, who are pursuing companies with strong earnings, have been buying megabank stocks.

Meanwhile, stocks' upward momentum appears limited, with the dollar falling to the upper-97 yen level. Market players are also taking a cautious stance ahead of the release of the purchasing managers' index for July by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing at 10 a.m.

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guoyanyunyan
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31-Jul-2013 16:00

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... smartphone market very competitive ne ....

NEC: To Pull Out Of Smartphone Market ....
HTC: Tough times for the ‘biggest victim’ in smartphone war ....

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guoyanyunyan
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31-Jul-2013 15:04

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China's growth plan 'pretty persuasive': O'Neill ....

Just back from China, renowned economist Jim O'Neill told CNBC on Tuesday that the " incessant focus" on whether the Chinese GDP numbers are accurate and whether GDP there even matters for the rest of the world " seems to be misplaced."

O'Neill—former chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management—said he found the Chinese government's growth plan " pretty persuasive," despite predicting the world's second-largest economy is going to " slow even further" while reforms take hold.

He said the Chinese business owners and senior policymakers he met with during his trip are willing to accept a slowdown in the near term to " improve the quality and long-term sustainability of growth."

" Amongst the things they are moving towards is more freedom of their currency and ... much more flexibility of their own interest rate market," explained O'Neill, who coined the term BRICS—referring to the economies of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.

In the second quarter, China said its economy expanded 7.5%, but that was the ninth slowdown in the past 10 quarters and a dip to the low end of the official government economic growth target for 2013.

" It baffles me as to why people still persist with this notion of China deliberately fiddling its numbers," O'Neill said. If that's the case, he continued, why wouldn't the government there make sure the " numbers were above or in line" with its forecasts.

He added that Chinese GDP is not the measure most important to the rest of the world, except for commodity producers and heavy industry companies. " If the China GDP slips from 10 to 6%, but the consumption rate is staying as strong or strengthening, that's what should be mattering," he said.

" The winners and losers of the new China are very different from the past," O'Neill said. " Caterpillar won't be at the front of the likely winners, nor would many other heavy industry and commodity-related companies."

O'Neill stressed that companies focused on " what China is going to consume" should be big winners such as " things that people just buy in shops or health-care and educational things."

—By CNBC's Matthew J. Belvedere.

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guoyanyunyan
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31-Jul-2013 14:48

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China faces its worst economic crisis: water ....

China has a serious problem, bigger than the slowdown in manufacturing growth or the housing-price bubble. It’s water, and it’s a catastrophe that could affect the rest of Asia and the larger world.

In testimony to the U.S. Senate last week, the Council on Foreign Relations’ Asia director Elizabeth Economy said China is facing a water crisis with “profound implications” if the government doesn’t get a grip on it over the next few years.

According to China’s own water-resources officials, more than 400 Chinese cities lacked enough water last year, with 110 of those facing “serious scarcity.”

The key culprit is industry, which Economy said uses 4 to 10 times more water per unit of GDP than similar economies and is polluting the nation’s existing water resources at an alarming rate. She cited a February 2013 report by the Geological Survey of China saying a full 90% of the country’s groundwater was polluted, while the Ministry of Environmental Protection said the water from about 25% of China’s major river systems was so filthy that it couldn’t be even used for industry or agriculture.

Tap water is mostly undrinkable, and those who do drink it run major health risks. And the contamination is making it into the food system, resulting in cadmium-tainted rice among other threats, she said.

It’s not like the government isn’t aware of the problem, but solutions such as raising the price of water have moved ahead at a snail’s pace. And “of the 1.3% of GDP that Beijing currently spends on environmental protection … half finds its way into other local priorities such as infrastructure development,” Economy told U.S. lawmakers.

The result of all this may be a health crisis in China, and outright conflict with its neighbors. China controls the headwaters of many of Asia’s most important rivers, such as the Irtyush, Mekong, and Brahmaputra, and these “are raising regional tensions as China develops plans upstream that may have dramatic impacts on the lower reaches,” she said.

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guoyanyunyan
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31-Jul-2013 14:31

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Nikkei Ends Down On Dollar's Fall

TOKYO (NQN)--Tokyo stocks closed lower Wednesday, with the Nikkei Stock Average falling 201.50 points, or 1.45%, to end the day at 13,668.32.

The benchmark index came under selling pressure on profit-taking due to the previous day's rise of more than 200 points and the dollar's fall to around 98 yen on Wednesday.

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guoyanyunyan
Elite

31-Jul-2013 11:03

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10 most expensive cities in the world ....

Luanda, Angola
Moscow
Tokyo
N'Djamena, Chad
Singapore
Hong Kong
Geneva, Switzerland
Zurich
Bern, Switzerland
Sydney

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guoyanyunyan
Elite

31-Jul-2013 10:16

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Shanghai, Hong Kong stocks rise property gains

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- Mainland Chinese and Hong Kong stocks rose Wednesday after the Communist Party's politburo pledged to maintain steady growth in the second half of 2013, lifting shares of property developers and financials.

The Shanghai Composite climbed 0.7% to 2,004.89, returning back above the 2,000-point level. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index rose 0.1% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index gained 0.4%, reflecting caution ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy decision later in the day.

Shares of Poly Real Estate Group Co. soared 6.5%, Anhui Conch Cement Co. rallied 4% and China Life Insurance Co. gained 2.2% in Shanghai trading. The Hong Kong-listed shares of Anhui Conch and China Life rose 2% each, while China Resources Land Ltd. climbed 3.2%.

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guoyanyunyan
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31-Jul-2013 08:59

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Nikkei weakness these few days may have halted, so does local indices?

Dear Friends,

The recent Asian indices weakness may be attributed to Nikkei weakness. Nikkei recently touched a high of around 15000 peak which I mentioned as a temp resistance. The best place to short Nikkei is definitely at 16000. Now it is at 13875. It has dropped 1000 points since the 15000 peak.

Of course, Nikkei is now one of the most exciting trading index now the world follows. If you are looking into Asia, we better pay attention to Nikkei too. We think that recently quite a few singapore stocks went down a bit because of this weakness in Asian indices. STI reaches a high of 3280 before retracing to 3241.

But having said that, we feel the short term bull run is intact. Nikkei will once again revive itself after running like a wild horse from 12200 points.

Today looking at our chart based on our Cash Ringing System (a system to identify short term trend), Nikkei short term downtrend these few days may have halted. This is good news for short term players. Look at our chart below.

We think that STI should pick itself up to head for 3300 again, should there not be any big problems to US's non farm payroll this Friday. Please pay attention to it too. It shall reveal how the QE episode is heading too.

We shall also give our prediction for Non farm payroll in our blog soon... stay tuned.

Rgds
Daniel
www.danielloh.com

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guoyanyunyan
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31-Jul-2013 08:34

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Nikkei Opens Lower On Dollar's Fall Vs Yen

TOKYO (NQN)--Tokyo stocks opened lower Wednesday, with the Nikkei Stock Average tumbling 136 points to begin the day at 13,733.

The dollar weakened to around 98 yen in early morning trade, prompting selling of exporters. With the results of the FOMC to be released Wednesday, U.S. time, investors are gradually moving to the sidelines, which means heavy selling is unlikely to continue.

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guoyanyunyan
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30-Jul-2013 17:08

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China acts to ease credit crunch - why the change of heart?

China's central bank on Tuesday did something it hasn't done in five months: it actively injected cash into local money markets, easing concerns of a repeat of the credit squeeze last month that sparked panic in global markets.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) pumped in 17 billion yuan ($2.7 billion) into the money markets via seven-day reverse bond repurchase agreements. It was the first time the central bank has participated in open money-market operations since June 20 and the first time it has injected funds since early February.

...more...

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guoyanyunyan
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30-Jul-2013 14:27

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Tokyo Stocks Rebound On Weaker Yen, Bargain-Hunting

TOKYO (Kyodo)--Tokyo stocks rebounded sharply Tuesday on a weaker yen and bargain-hunting, after the Nikkei index dived more than 1,000 points over the last four sessions, while investors awaited the outcome of a U.S. monetary policy meeting and Japanese corporate earnings for the April-June quarter.

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guoyanyunyan
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30-Jul-2013 14:24

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Nikkei Stock Average(Close)

13,869.82
+208.69 (+1.53%)
Open	13,634.20	(09:00)
High	13,909.45	(13:47)
Low	13,613.78	(09:54)

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guoyanyunyan
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30-Jul-2013 11:06

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Could Japan fall back into recession next year?

Even before Japan can stage a convincing growth rebound, fears are already building over a sharp slowdown in the world's third largest economy, with one analyst warning of a possible recession next year.

Economic indicators published on Tuesday including weaker-than-expected industrial production and household spending for June, highlighted the fragility of the recovery.

...more...

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guoyanyunyan
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30-Jul-2013 09:13

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Nikkei Stock Average(10:10)

13,678.62
+17.49 (+0.13%)
Open	13,634.20	(09:00)
High	13,753.11	(09:28)
Low	13,613.78	(09:54)

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