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OLAM_OLAM
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EZ3626
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01-Nov-2013 10:47
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Com'on don't take too long to come to your senses ..... which Olam's pillars/legs you want to support.  Cantonese's saying " 没 眼 看 ? cannot bear to see the end of it 。 。 。   |
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Obfuscate
Senior |
01-Nov-2013 10:41
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Olam has a good portfolio of products but its funding policy is pulling it down. It is drowning in debt. Here is the best indicator: total debt at 30 Jun $8.85 bn. Total mkt cap  today $3.68 bn. I am very interested to see how it is going to fund its operations going forward. | ||||
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Obfuscate
Senior |
01-Nov-2013 10:32
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Rosesyrup already said he/she is in the money, meaning he/she bot below current mkt px. Its on record.
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danytan
Senior |
01-Nov-2013 10:04
Yells: "Up up and away!" |
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Sis, are you vested in olam? | ||||
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Rosesyrup
Veteran |
01-Nov-2013 10:01
Yells: "Get your own opinion, don't follow blindly." |
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LOL Who game over?
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Octavia
Elite |
01-Nov-2013 08:40
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Muddy Waters: Game over for Olam if Temasek pulls out Almost a year after it first released its report on Olam International, shortselling research firm Muddy Waters is not letting up on the agri-commodities trader yet. " My view is that if Temasek decides tomorrow that it wanted out of this investment, it would be game over within months for them, without Temasek's backstop," its research director Carson Block told The Business Times in his first visit to Singapore since launching its report against Olam last November. " For us, the be-all and end-all when we're looking at Olam is free cashflow. It's a company that seems to be in general wholly-incapable of generating free cash flow. It takes on more and more debt, and eventually, this debt has to be repaid." The shortseller had late last year accused Olam of relying on accounting tricks to boost its bottomline, spending too much on poor quality assets, and said it valued Olam on a " liquidation basis" . The attack, the first of its kind in Singapore, caused Olam's shares to fall 20 per cent to a low of $1.395 at the height of the saga, and subsequently led to an overhaul of Olam's plans after a strategic review. The firm said that it now aims to be free cashflow positive from the 2014 financial year onwards, a year earlier than its original target of FY2015, and has laid out plans to cut planned capital expenditure, monetise its balance sheet and divest certain assets. Mr Block said of these: " The company's saying the right things. The question is whether it actually does those things. It might have become slightly more selective, but you still see substantial cash burn in the company." " Maybe they can finance their way out of it, however many more times, but there will come a day - it might be sooner, it might be later - when the market will not be open to this company." In August, Olam reported a negative free cashflow of $316 million for the 2013 financial year, compared with negative $661 million a year before. Olam's net gearing now stands at 1.93 times, as compared to 2.20 times the previous quarter, and 1.81 times at the end of FY2012. When asked if Muddy Waters still retains a short position on the firm, Mr Block said it does not usually comment on its positions aside from the release of its reports. But in a hint that Muddy Waters is still short on Olam, he added: " Obviously we're usually used to winning within a shorter period of time. Fortunately for many of the names we've shorted in the past, we haven't really had to think to answer that question. Olam is different." Shares for Olam, and Muddy Waters' target after that, US cellphone antenna operator American Towers, had not dropped as much as the shortseller's earlier targets, leading to talk that its influence has faded. In a sign that its streak of lacklustre results is ending, however, Muddy Waters' latest report launched last Thursday against Chinese mobile services provider NQ Mobile led to its shares falling more than 60 per cent within an hour. Temasek moving into the ring to support Olam was a move that the shortseller had not foreseen, Mr Block admitted. " We looked at it from a purely economic standpoint, which is that it is not an investible company, and maybe we ignored the political elements of this, the psychological element, the issues that were more systemic in Singapore that could interest a sovereign in a bailout," he said. Two weeks after Muddy Waters spoke out against Olam, Temasek, then the firm's second-largest shareholder, threw its weight behind Olam by agreeing not just to take up its pro-rata entitlement of Olam's US$1.25 billion bonds-cum-warrants rights issue, but also sub-underwrite it. The issue was eventually 1.1 times subscribed. Temasek has also since then progressively increased its ownership of Olam, from an initial 16.3 per cent before the Muddy Waters attack to 24.07 per cent now. In Mr Block's view, Temasek had stepped in because of the wider implications that an Olam collapse would have posed to the commodity-trading industry in Singapore. " If Olam had failed, what would the banks have done with the other commodity houses that are borrowing in Singapore?" he said. " It's reasonable to assume that if the banks had to write off losses to Olam, you could have a real funding freeze for the commodity trading industry in Singapore. " Temasek's spokesman Stephen Forshaw said the Singapore investment company's reason for investing in Olam remained the same: " We have been, and remain, supportive of its publicly known strategy to take the opportunity, in recent years, to add on more upstream and midstream capabilities and capacities. " We also acknowledged that no business is without risks. But that said, at the time of the investment, we were comfortable with Olam's credit position and longer term prospects, and were very pleased to have another opportunity to invest in the company, alongside others." |
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beginners
Senior |
31-Oct-2013 23:06
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It's ok bro, some times it's fun to have Some guessing view to take away some stress mood from stock market :) Huat ah
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roostertan
Member |
31-Oct-2013 21:16
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Lots of things are very dark and we may not know.  Just some guessing games.
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beginners
Senior |
31-Oct-2013 19:32
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Hmm... You mean the CFO run road and "sell" news to MW?
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roostertan
Member |
31-Oct-2013 19:29
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Thanks Bros Beginners and Vincente.    It does make me wonder whether the timing of their CFO resignation and few weeks later followed by Muddy Waters attacks is co-incidental or not.  Or is there some insider leakage of confidential substances which we may not aware of?
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vincente
Senior |
31-Oct-2013 15:04
Yells: "hope for the best" |
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Sad to hear yr predicament.Shld have exited earlier then.Looking back, I remember a lot of gd intention sifus have given warning at that time during the MW saga and I count myself lucky to have avoided it altogether.
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beginners
Senior |
30-Oct-2013 21:32
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Bro don't get discourage. Who knows the Indian mgt can create happening! Just like the commonwealth game! Bridge, bed collapse, bird shit in the pool still able to complete the "mission impossible". | ||||
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roostertan
Member |
30-Oct-2013 21:19
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When Olam share price was at 2.40, the news released that their CFO has resigned.  Honestly, I was rather nervous when I heard that.    Also, not that I am been rascist, but, I do feel uncomfortable when I realised that the senior management team are all  indians.    Coupled with Temasek been involved in their investments make me even more terrified.  These are my personal heart feelings that I would like to share with all of you.  Sorry, if I am been too strong in my words.  Sure enough, the price plummeted from 2.40 till today after their CFO has resigned followed by Muddy Waters attacks.  I would not have ponder that moment and should have quickly released my holdings at 2.40 since strange feelings have  invaded me.  Sad to say, I  am  still holding to this baby till today. 
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sun233
Member |
30-Oct-2013 16:25
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Amateurs......sigh. | ||||
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EZ3626
Member |
30-Oct-2013 09:24
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Shall I give you a Spoon. I share the same opinion as Dippyboy " Olam is going down below $0.50 .." watch and see |
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Rosesyrup
Veteran |
30-Oct-2013 01:12
Yells: "Get your own opinion, don't follow blindly." |
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Yawn, your response is  within expectation. As usual, you still decided to move on to other arguments before clarifying the previous one. If Dippyboy argument is the same as yours why would I prefer his over yours? Something worth pondering. Anyway, this should be my last response to your baseless claim. Goodluck.  
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EZ3626
Member |
30-Oct-2013 01:04
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Rosesyrup, like to hear sweet thing, Silly the content is the same, it is just the packaging is different.  Dippyboy is kind, this news is nothing new.. wonder how on earth you decide to buy Olam. Hope you didn't buy Olam because of what your parrot said or I like the name Olam. Hokkien sound like Oh Lam (hug). Like that you better sell ... listen to parrot. Singapore raise children not EZ still raise parrot. If not because of Temasek support you think the rights issue can go through .... Judicial Management liao Do you know how long is the window for Olam dividend ??? Very long ... please do your homework. By right want to leave, by left decide to stay :) |
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Rosesyrup
Veteran |
30-Oct-2013 00:11
Yells: "Get your own opinion, don't follow blindly." |
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Fair, I like your analysis. At least you are complete opposite of that EMZ guy.  Don't know who thumbs down you but I will thumbs up you just to encourage more logical analysis like yours- normally I don't bother with the thumb up/down system.
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dippyboy
Member |
29-Oct-2013 23:57
Yells: "Plsdoyourownhomework.Personalopinion,Disclaimerapplies." |
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  They paid a high price to Temasek rights support in the form of high interest and warrents. The total real returns are around 13% on top of the existing high finance cost for the remainding bonds and these will be first paid to them and not to ordinary shareholders. As of now since listed ,the cashflow is not positive and it has been spending more moola than it can generate from its investment. Along the way there are numerous operational difficulties in the vast investment in gabon and other farm sources it poured money in all these years. Ultimately it hopes all these investment will bring to fruits . To be fair, commodities as an asset class is not doing well globally but tide can turn with a synchoronised global recovery with the US leading the way after it fully deleverages in 5 years more. However there is a real risk of major difficulties in this period if china does goes to a recession pulling down europe. It is not comforting to know Olam consumes vast amount of cashflow to sustain these investment and real net return from them is yet to be fully paid back. True profitability is better gauged from real cashflow returns and EVA since inception. How much is the shareholder getting back on $1 invested since listed? Even if Olam does started generating net positive returns , most of them is first going to the bond holders to clear the debts. The question is, if the expected recovery in commodities doesnt come in this 5 years. Where is the new money to be coming from? New Bonds at reasonable interest is unlikely due to the rising usd and interest rates and poor sentiment given its history of promises. If things are still bad down the road , by then it will feel like its a ponzi scheme..... using new money at even higher interest to pay back old. Rights issue is very much the only way to repay previous bond holder to avert a default. I would like to pay only 50c per share to hold such risks.  |
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Rosesyrup
Veteran |
29-Oct-2013 23:55
Yells: "Get your own opinion, don't follow blindly." |
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A very unconstructive and irrational  post. Normally I would encourage people to stay and share regardless of their stands. But for your case, I guess you made the right choice to leave. Having you here any longer, this forum can soon be trading on rumors and fairy tales.
If you ever want to post here again, remember to clarify your earlier arguments (highlighted in red). Otherwise don't bother jumping from claims to claims, when none of them is sound. Just saying.  
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