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Singtel Bullish???
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frosin
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08-Oct-2009 21:23
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Moving from $3.06 down to $3.04, Singtel lost another S$318.536m today adding to a total of S$3,822.432m from before the fall. Bharti last trade is at Rs 334.65. From its previous of Rs 435.5, the share has lost about 23.2% or Rs 383 billion (S$11.5b). At 30%, Singtel lost S$3.46b. Comparing S$3.82b losses of Singtel market capitalization to S$3.46b losses in terms of holding Bharti shares mark to market, it can be said that the losses is efficiently reflected into Singtel's share prices at S$3.04. It is possible that Singtel is under valued by S$0.36b or S$0.02. Bharti short term outlook is as illustrated by the indian market analysts. It is generally expected that the stock stay afloat above Rs 350 and target of Rs 356.Latest is by Mohindar in an interview on CNBC mentioned that despite the shorts are limited, there will be a long bottom before the share picks up strength to move up. Oct 08, 2009 Bharti Airtel can slip 4-5%: Mohindar Given the immense downside already, I think this price of $3.04 is fairly reasonable. In fact, it might be slightly ahead of the fall. Bharti vs Singtel market capitalisation is S$38,271,828,230.32 vs S$48,417,472,000.00 as of market close. Breaking into parts, Singtel currently have 30% or S$11,481,548,469.10 in Bharti. The remaining of Singtel market cap worth S$36,935,923,530.90, or $2.32 per share, is elsewhere. Each time Bharti fall(rise) by Rs 1.39, Singtel lose(gain) an amount equivalent to 1 cent per share. 5% downside is Rs 16.73 or 12 cents equivalent. Rs 15.35 minimal upside is 11 cents upside. This will create a trading range between S$2.92 to S$3.15 purely in response to Bharti news. However, Singtel has a large portion of other businesses that is unaffected and still doing well or improving. Earning season is coming again. Singtel's strong earning growth remains intact and is likely to announce some healthy results despite the net asset valuation expected to fall if the mark to market was done for Bharti. Singtel's recent initiatives and iPhone sales are likely to improve operating income. Moreover, the EPL rights are still "valuable". Bharti, too, is expected to grow rapidly and report strong results. It should still be noted that the recent market movement were on the basis of speculation of a highly likely government regulation for more competition. This would affect future earnings of telecoms. However, Bharti is diversifying from India already but not as much as desirable to not be affected by this news. I believe next month's earning will send Singtel back to $3.30 and above. *one other point is that past Bharti surges in stock prices did not affect Singtel by as much or as efficiently. It might be true that Singtel is undervalued.
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maxcty
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08-Oct-2009 18:10
Yells: "always a learning day for me in trading" |
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then he can hug both and cry liao..
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nickyng
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08-Oct-2009 17:49
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gee..hedging with same sector ?? ayo...wat if both WENT DOWN together?? hee... :P
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erictkw
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08-Oct-2009 17:45
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=DJ UPDATE: Singtel Optus To Price USD Bond Later Thursday-Source (Adds trading levels of comparable bonds, company background) By Ditas Lopez Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)--Singtel Optus Pty Ltd., one of the larger telecommunications companies in Australia, is looking to raise US$500 million in 10-year bonds that could price later Thursday, according to a person familiar with the deal. The bond, to be issued by Optus Finance Pty Ltd., is being offered to international investors outside the U.S. via Citigroup Inc, HSBC Holdings and J.P.Morgan Chase & Co., the person said. The telco, a wholly owned subsidiary of Singapore Telecommunications (Z74.SG), is looking to pay a spread of around 155 basis points over comparable U.S. Treasury yield, he added. The spread guidance was 30 basis points above the yields of comparable 2019 bonds recently issued by Singapore Technologies Engineering Ltd. (S63.SG) and PSA International Pte. These bonds, both rated AAA, were trading Thursday at around 125 basis points over Treasurys. Singtel Optus has ratings of Aa3 from Moody's Investors Service and A+ from Standard & Poor's Ratings Services. |
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lowchia
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08-Oct-2009 17:24
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lol anyway i dun care as well. I vested in both singtel and starhub. I bought both at the bottom. So either one has good news, i just stop loss on one and ride on the other stocks to gain profit
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nickyng
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08-Oct-2009 17:09
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DJ MARKET TALK: Daiwa Cuts SingTel Target To S$3; Keeps At Hold STOCK CALL: Daiwa cuts SingTel's (Z74.SG) sum-of-parts target price to S$3.00 from S$3.19 after reducing FY10-12 EPS forecasts by 2%-6% to assume lower profit contributions from Bharti (532454.BY) as competition in India's cellular market intensifies. New target implies 13.1X FY10 P/E, 10% below average for Asian telcos. Notes recent launch of per-second billing by Tata DoCoMo, rollout of flat mobile tariff plan by Reliance Communications (532712.BY); "we think this could be the beginning of a long-drawn-out tariff war for the mobile sector, and believe Bharti Airtel may be forced to join the race." Keeps Hold call on SingTel. Shares off 0.3% at S$3.05. |
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frosin
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08-Oct-2009 16:58
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"SingTel continues to be the leader in Singapore's wireless market. We expect that SingTel's subscriber base will be growing over the next five years, and it will reach 3.46 million by the end of 2013," said Nizar Assanie, Vice President (Research) at IEMR. "In terms of market shares, we forecast that SingTel's share of total subscribers will increase from 46.4% in 2008 to 48.5% in 2013. In contrast, MobileOne's market share will go down from 25.7% in 2008 to 24.0% in 2013 while StarHub's market share decreases from 27.9% in 2008 to 27.5% in 2013." "In terms of ARPUs, our model predicts that SingTel's monthly ARPU will decline from SGD 54.05 in 2008 to SGD 50.73 in 2013. Also, MobileOne's monthly ARPU will decrease from SGD 38.88 to SGD 36.04, and StarHub's ARPU will decrease from SGD 51.04 to SGD 49.53 over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013," said Mr. Assainie. Singtel sets to continue as Singapore market leader in the coming years. Stock market analysts have maintained 'buy' rating on Bharti Airtel with an intraday target of Rs 366. According to them, interested traders can purchase the stock between Rs 358-360 with a strict stop loss of Rs 350. If the stock market remains positive, the stock pricing becomes more attractive, and reach above Rs 372. India market analysts called for value buy on Bharti based on current trading range. MTN explained his side of the story. MTN was hoping to gain full management control of Indian operator Bharti Airtel over time, according to a report this week in an SA financial journal. According to a cover article in the 9 October edition of the Financial Mail, MTN Group president and CEO Phuthuma Nhleko, pictured, had been aiming to wrest management control of Bharti in collaboration with Singaporean operator SingTel. The magazine bases this on information it has gleaned from unnamed sources. “Nhleko and the board had a crafty plan. It wouldn’t be immediate, but MTN was eventually gunning for majority ownership of its Indian counterpart,” the FM says. “In the first phase of the transaction, MTN would have been only the second-largest shareholder in Bharti with a 25% stake. Independent Singaporean investor SingTel already owns about 30%. “MTN and SingTel could have formed a powerful force with 55% of the largest telecoms player in India — a force that would eventually have taken control of Bharti. It’s hard to see this through the haze of regulatory hurdles and the secrecy, but that was the ultimate prize for Nhleko, say sources.” The FM says the Bharti deal would have been the “final coup in [Nhleko's] acquisitive trail through Africa and the Middle East”. Nhleko has previously said he may not seek to have his contract renewed when it expires in June 2010. The four-month-long talks between MTN and Bharti fell apart last month with Indian operator blaming the SA government for placing hurdles in the way of a deal that would have created the world’s third-largest mobile operator by subscriber numbers. The SA government is believed to have insisted on a dual-listed structure. However, Indian law does not allow for dual listings. — Staff reporter, TechCentral |
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frosin
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08-Oct-2009 15:52
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I am on the same opinion. it is about time for IDA to map out the future direction for this broadcasting industry. we need a versatile framework that would allow fair competition, which will drive down subscription cost while concurrently supporting multiple content provider. Most importantly, it must blend into part of this futuristic network that the government spent so much on. It cannot be S1 says lets work with telephone line hdtv and S2 says lets watch cable hdtv. What if M3 says lets do wifi hdtv? how many standards do we as a small country able to support for their economy of scale. also, S1 tries to overbid S2, M3 tries to overbid S1. it is endless. ultimately, we all know firms are there to make money. like our bus and mrt services which integrates and serve different routes, no one is complaining that they are profitable and getting bonuses. people are upset because suddenly they have to pay more. Singtel can claim a lot when it comes to comparison to say its cheaper than before. but things don't come in one by one, like our government's favourite thing "package". there are people contracted in package 1 or 2, your new item just don't fit in and yet it is why they contracted to get in the first place. Starhub is not going to say sorry to subscribers for not getting epl in their sports package, they have singtel to thanks for overbidding. singtel subscribers are not going to thank singtel, they have more subscriptions to pay to get what they want. talk about disservice to the nation, while we know singtel is very singapore and very government, this is the talk of the town i guess.
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tonylim
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08-Oct-2009 15:40
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My two-cent worth of comments : 1. Starhub did not make from the Sports channels previously 2. Singtel needs to spend $$$$ to upgrade its system and connectivity/capture areas 3. Not many Starhub subscribers will switch over and will just retain it for other entertainment/news/documentary channels 4. The ROI will take years for Singtel 5. Getting the rights is just to save face for Singtel and Starhub in this instance is prudent. 6. M1 and Starhub may just join force to break the monopoly - our IDA may also do something about this as there are so many unhappy subscribers.
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frosin
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08-Oct-2009 15:33
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unfortunately no one trades on words. Frankly I do not care if Singtel breaks $3 or not. too me, I do both TA and FA. I can tell you the resistance support is at $2.98, not $3.06. True there is a lot of trades before we hit the resistance level but Singtel just tend to have such high volumes. MACD might indicate a reverse of the swing. Well, like you said market is based more on news than FA or TA. There is no likelihood of any good news till results. Hence, good luck with guessing where the turn around point for the TA swing is. Fundamentally, the stock no longer worth $3.06 till Bharti goes up.
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lowchia
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08-Oct-2009 15:23
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I play TA and i can tell u 3.06 is a strong support. (I vested at 3.06). MACD signal a buy signal. Even if it managed to break, i doubt it can go below $3. Mark my words. Nowadays if u play FA then u can quit stock liao.....if stocks like capitaland and Genting can soar based on good news then u will noes market buy stock dun based on FA. |
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tonylim
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08-Oct-2009 14:53
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Singtel is overpaying for the Sports rights (it will run at a loss). Starhub will benefit instead.
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frosin
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08-Oct-2009 14:37
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no worries its a great stock. one of the titan of singapore. not going to go down even if india telco collapse. at the very long term, sure to make money. short term wise, it is clearly overvalued. even at $3.06, it is not worth buying. If you have it, hold it for a while.
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frosin
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08-Oct-2009 14:33
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Bullish people should consider that Singtel Market Cap at $3.06 is S$48,736.008m a.k.a S$48 billion. It has drop from its recent peak of $3.28 to $3.06 which means the market cap fell from S$52,239.904m to S$48,736.008m translating to S$3,503.896m losses. This is more than the losses realized in India. Even if considering the S$400 million invested in EPL, the share price is fair. Singtel would be neutral. Bearish people should consider that Singtel Market Cap at $3.06 is S$48,736.008m a.k.a S$48 billion. It has drop from its trading normal of $3.20 to $3.06 which means the market cap fell from S$50,965.76m to S$48,736.008m translating to S$2,229.752m losses. This is less than the losses realized in India. Also, if considering the S$400 million invested in EPL, the share price is too high. Singtel would be underweight. |
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stockseeker
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08-Oct-2009 14:29
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Doesn't look good the selling volume's inching upwards and prices are inching down. Alittle frustrated here cos vested.
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frosin
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08-Oct-2009 14:19
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Market Capitalisation (as on Oct 07, 2009)Approx. Rs.1,361 billion Closing BSE share price = Rs. 358.35 today's drop of 3.54% translate to Rs 48.18 billion. Good money washed away. Previously at 435.5 to 345.65, this means a loss of maybe like Rs 340 billion. Out of which, Rs 100 billion is on Singtel. At 1.00 SGD = 33.2095 INR, it is not so bad. Singtel only lost like S$3 billion when mark to market. It probably still is in profit for the overall investment. |
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frosin
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08-Oct-2009 14:09
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Anyway, nothing is good for singtel... Kimeng's recommendation just dive deeper today. BHARTI AIRTEL LTD INR5(Bombay: BHARTIARTL.BO)
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frosin
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08-Oct-2009 14:00
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It depends how we see this... First view, if successful, it means the market is willing to fund the company and see no further risks in its long term repayment capability. this is because the benchmark rates are the minimum acceptable interest over treasury rates that compensates buying non-treasury bond. Second view, current treasury rates are higher than in normal times, issuing now means you are paying more interests even if it is benchmark. Third view, optus is in crunch problem? Never heard of any requirements for cash previously during results. Fourth view, major plans coming up for optus. is there such a market still in aussie? no disclosure so far. A long time ago, i remember all the companies like debt and like to stay leveraged. this is because the market's valuation method actually accredit more value for being leverage. those were the past. now people see leverage as risk and share needs to be traded at appropriate discounts from the potential for people to take such risks. Until more details, it is generally not good news.
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frosin
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08-Oct-2009 13:52
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HONG KONG/SYDNEY, Oct 8 (Reuters) - Optus Finance, a unit A benchmark size issue usually means $500 million. Preliminary pricing suggests around 160 basis points over Citigroup (C.N), HSBC (HSBA.L) (0005.HK) and JPMorgan The borrower is Optus Finance Pty, the financing arm of The issue is expected to be rated Aa3 by Moody's and A-plus SingTel Optus, which is owned by Singapore (Reporting by Cecile Lefort and Umesh Desai) |
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stockseeker
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08-Oct-2009 10:43
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Does this translate to good / neutral / bad news?
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