Back

Latest Forum Topics / Biosensors

Post Reply

Is Biosensors a good buy? Post Reply Rate topic
ekekeg Veteran	11-Aug-2007 18:03        ekekeg About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I believe many people are still net short either in borrowed stocks or sold CFDs in Biosensors.  This round is very dangerous for them because the acquisition is not just about buying a company.  There are more to that.  The long term benefits in Biosensors is limitless.  For its past R&D expenses alone, the goodwill and hence intrinsic quality/value, is huge and should not be overlooked.  Personally basing on this R&D, I have made Biosenors my long term stock to hold whether bear or bull market.  Biosensors' share prices can skyrock upwards anytime.  Those who are short are well advised to cover at the earliest opportunity, even at a loss, otherwise woes. Furthermore after trading closes on Monday, a stunning good performance in the results to be announced would deal a davastating blow on shortists.  Please beware and cover short on Monday, otherwise get burnt. Happy investing.
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
787180 Master	11-Aug-2007 17:14        787180 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	It is not Biosensor being taken over but Biosensor is incurring $$$ buying a co in China..nothing to crow about.Limited upside back to> 70cts level but safer to buy <60cts...wanted to buy when it was 90cts luckily the charts show once broken 90cts will head further...Biosensor subject to so many regulatory approvals in Europe/US?japan...and the time taken for China to approve will take at least 2 years...and Biosensor is incurring a string of losses ..very soon its paid up capital will be wiped out and the $$$ spent on reasearch will continue to eat into its profits without any tangible results..strong sell
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
bengster Member	11-Aug-2007 14:55        bengster About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Allow me to clarify some of my earlier mistakes and projections: 1. JW medical's net profit last year was US$8.5m based on 9 months sales from Apr to Dec 2006. If we extrapolate it, the 12 months net profit should be around US$11.3m for 2006. DES market in China growing by 100% per year, plus EXCEL stent proven to be a much superior stent at lower cost and is canibalising market share of other DES like the inferior FIREBIRD (local made), CYPHER (JNJ, Cordis) and TAXUS (Boston). Their internal projection for JW's net profit is about US$25m for 2007. The US$10m cash paid for the 50% share in JW will be earned back within this year of 2007. I believe JW can capture 40% of China's market share by 2010. In fact, Biosensors still want to buy over Shandong Weigao's remaining 50% shares (Hong Kong deal) and are still negotiating with them. What we are seeing now is the first part of China M&A story via buying over the chinaman founders/management shareholdings. The Medtronic/Weigao JV is still in jeopardy because it breaches Biosensors/Weigao JV agreement and i believe we will see another announcement soon on Biosensors acquiring the other 50% of JW from Weigao. Negotiations i believe are still soon the way. It like: if weigao wants to have another partner (Medtronic), Biosensors will have the custody of the child JW Medical. We know weigao wants medtronic JV more desperately than JV with biosensors. 2. The brown hair CEO is an honest and nice chap. He looks quite beng but he is an ang tao moh beng. Im the hokkien ang kong beng. Yes, Biosensors will still report loss for full year in 2007 due to costly clinical trials like LEADERS and STEALTH2 but i believe this quarter they will report a profit of about US$10m if they recognise Abbott's US$15m settlement and Terumo's US$5m milestone payment as earnings. I just feel he is naive in the sense that the Netherlands CE is the most stingy of all the the whole of europe and he should have passed over the scheduled CE panel and wait for another group of CE panelists from other lesser stingy countries like England, Germany, etc. whereby he have confidence of using strong lobbying from a big brother to ensure smooth approval process. One of the Netherlands CE panelist has been know to be close to a stent rival company and thats the biggest problem for the delay. Biosensors is over-confidence and naive in the whole CE process. We all can see how fast the China operations is literally printing money when approval is obtained. If the projections of US$25m net profit for 2007 is correct, multiply by PE of 30 times (being china gowth story for listing in USA), JW is actually worth US$750m. 50% of US$750m is US$375 (S$570m) and Biosensors is paying only S$64m for the 50% stake. Definitley good deal for Biosensors. DES industry is so profitable and high quality stents like Biomatrix are in huge demand all over the world whereby people dont have a better option of the poor quality DES currently available. Your product may be the best but if you need to buck up in lobbying and getting regulatory approvals to start selling your products.
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
bengster Member	10-Aug-2007 17:46        bengster About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Bloomberg news is correct. Biosensors acquiring only 50% of JW. I think Weigao and Medtronic refuses to barge. But Biosensors will be controlling the management by appointing the CEO of JW. They will pay USD10m plus do a share swap. The rescue boat is smaller than what i expect. Anyway, the good news is China DES is expected to be growing over 80% per annum so in 2 years time, it will be bigger than Japan market (currently USD$600m). In fact, comparing H1 2006 China DES sales VS H1 2007 is USD89m VS USD184m. That is over 100% growth while other places in the world like USA or Europe are declining. Asia is a very important market for DES going forward so this is definitely a good deal for Biosensors. They will do another deal in India also. JW last year profit at USD$8.5m. They only started selling EXCEL stent from 2nd quarter onwards so the US$8.5m profit reflects only 9 months of DES net profit. Now Biosensors are buying them at valuation of 15 times 2006 PE. If we proportion them, effectively, Biosensors buying them at 11.25 times 2006 PE since the first 3 months of 2006 no DES sales. I estimate JW will make USD$12m this year and USD20m next year. JW can actually list in US late this year or early next year with valuation of 30 times 2007 PE at company's valuation of USD360m. The way i look at it is biosensors buying earnings (for now and future) but at shareholder's dilution. Overall, it is still a good deal for Biosensors. Such corporate deals are hard to reach a consensus and we can only blame the shortist as these are the bast#@ds the are causing long-term holders of this stock more share dilution. But look at it in a better way, now we are paying total of USD64m for USD180m worth (50% of USD360m). Thats about one third JW's company worth. So its a good deal for Biosensors. Hope you guys get it what i mean
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
jackjames Elite	10-Aug-2007 17:26        jackjames About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	well, the JWMS bought biosensor shares at 0.63, what a discounted price !!! Good for JWMS !!!!!!!
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
swissvic Member	10-Aug-2007 15:37        swissvic About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Biosensors Announces Agreement To Acquire Fifty Percent Of JW Medical Systems Limited
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
bengster Member	09-Aug-2007 23:43        bengster About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I also posted the China M&A story in this forum on 12/07/2007 and 24/07/2007 abt what happended at the AGM. The hints are already there, but no one dare to picked it up at below 70 cts. I have the guts, I went in again to average down. We will see how this stock rocket on Monday trading. It will be a big trend reverse for this stock. Any selling during the past 2 weeks at below 80 cts the sellers are desperados and confirm selling at a loss. This is an event driven stock so if at such low price still want to push your luck further and wait until drop to 50cts, you will miss the bottom fishing.Let me say again, the fundamentals of Biosensors are still intact and my takeover hypotheses by either JNJ, MDT, ABT & BSX is still firmly on track.
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
bengster Member	09-Aug-2007 23:26        bengster About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I posted China & India M&A possibility one month ago and reposted it again last week at CNA forum. Posted: Sun Aug 05, 2007 12:33 am    Post subject: Thanks for your encouragements brothers. Maybe I will stick to what I am good at...... studying events. I believe events causes the major movement for event driven stocks like biosensors and that is why i take particular interest in studying them. On 15 Apr 2007, Medtronic signed a non-binding MOU with Shangdong Weigao (HK listed) to have 15% equity participation. I knew that would brew trouble with Biosensors. Biosensors and Weigao had collaboration dating back in 2004 and they have a JV stent company JW Medical based in China. Under the JV, Biosensors will provide licensing of drug and biodegradable polymer technology. Biosensors is given free 10% equity in JW Medical. Presently Biosensors owns 10% of JW, Weigao owns 50% and 40% by Chinaman founders. Biosensors also have a 10% option of JW exerciseable at US$10m. All Hong Kong stock analysts applauded Weigao's move of having Medtronic as strategic equity partner as this can help weigao scale to higher level on global level. Weigao does many other medical products so Medtronic and Weigao's collaboration would be beautiful for both parties. But one mountain cannot hide 2 tigers. In Biosensors/Weigao JV agreement to create JW Medical, Weigao is not allowed to have a stent competitor like Medtronic coming in the picture. Biosensors can sue Weigao for breach of JV agreement and stop all licensing agreement. This will render JW Medical in total jeopardy. JW made US$8m last year and it is on track to meet US$12m target this year. This company owns one of the best selling DES stent called "EXCEL" using biosensor's technology. If JW is in jeopardy, the heaviest loss is Weigao since they own 50%. Biosensors owns only 10% (and they didn't pay a cent for it anyway) so Biosensor's will suffer the least damage if this whole JV company close down. Furthermore, since Biosensor's technology is already proven in China and already help to create the top selling DES EXCEL stent in china, there should be many eager and bigger China medical companies approaching Biosensors to start another JV company giving Biosensors very favourable terms. This is the power of patents and proprietary drug and technology. Do not underestimate this intangible asset for biomed companies. People are eager to collaborate with you and rivals want to buy you over because you have all these intangible assets. You are basically the principal and you have leverage negotiation power with your licensee. Meanwhile, Biosensors is a pre-earnings stock so having the whole JW Medical to themselves would be wonderful share price booster. Knowing Biosensors is still a pre-earnings stock, I feel most likely Biosensors will issue new shares to purchase over JW Medical and make JW Mediacl a wholly owned subsidiary. The other Chinaman founders will have no problem because basically china businessmen love their assets to be liquid (listed shares) and can put them overseas. I feel Biosensors and Weigao will definitely work out a meaningful solution so it benefits all parties instead of all die together. Of course anything that they worked-out must have the blessings of Medtronic or else Weigao/Medtronic JV would also be affected. If this deal pulls thru, all analysts will re-rate Biosensors upwards as Biosensors will be the top stent company in china. China demand growth for DES is approx 30% compounding yearly and JW has now captured about 20% of DES market share in China and set to capture almost 40% market share by 2010. Just like what MIVT (Canadian stent company) did in China and India, I think Biosensors is also planning to do M&A in China and India also. Now with IDE in Japan, and if M&A in China and India is successful, basically Asia is conquered. Europe as we know is a little bit tricky and has been delayed due to politics reasons but I believe Biosensors is really at the final stage of approval. In US Biosensors is still at IDE stage and the feedback from FDA as far as I know is very favourable. Another licensee DEVAX INC is also at final stage of IPO in US (Bear Sterns as lead manager.... oops unfortunately at this present moment) and Biosensors also owns shares and options in DEVAX. I believe Biosensors have cash of about USD90m now but they will do share swap because they need tens of millions to do LEADERS & STEALTH2 trials involving thousands of patients.
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
dinola Member	09-Aug-2007 10:33        dinola About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Hi bengster, I hope you're right all this while. However, i got from a source that they are trying to buy a China company, not the other way round. Anyway you can verified this? where they find $ to buy??!! Hope you are right! Best Wishes.
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
bengster Member	08-Aug-2007 17:36        bengster About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	JNJ is almost a US$200B company. Bigger than Temasek. I told you JNJ offered $1.70 per share Biosensors last year when Conor was still around. Now with Conor dead, we should be looking at least $3 per share for takeover.
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
sports12 Member	08-Aug-2007 16:33        sports12 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	hey guys you can find pretty good analysis of biosensors at: http://investprosper.wordpress.com
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
jackjames Elite	08-Aug-2007 14:05        jackjames About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Trading halt.. Pending an announcement on business partnership and collaboration   hmm... sound like a good news.. let's see what business partnership this time.. J&J???
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
787180 Master	07-Aug-2007 15:32        787180 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	$ ekam osla emit ntime to short unitil Biosensor drop<60cts...hopeless  counter...lucky to hve sold at $1.k04 and shorted many times to make some pocket $$$....even naked short never cover back also make $$$
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
singaporegal Supreme	06-Aug-2007 21:21        singaporegal About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Technical   Mood: Yells: "Female TA nut"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	TA charts have not changed since my last post. Still looking bearish...
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
787180 Master	06-Aug-2007 20:27        787180 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Bengster..looks like yr TP of $1.25 by mid august cannot be achieved..but Biosensor is heading for <60cst soon..many pple hve been stuck with this share when not long ago it soared to a high of $1.12..moral of the story-never fall in love with a stock...those who hve sold >90cts are the smart ones
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
Pension Elite	04-Aug-2007 23:44        Pension About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	the trend of investment is short not long for the time being until USA pose some good news. Our bank are slightly indirectly affected by the sub prime loan. Hope our banks are not affect by the loan here.
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
Pension Elite	04-Aug-2007 22:46        Pension About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	come this monday, any counter you short will make some money. dow down above 200 points.
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
787180 Master	04-Aug-2007 10:06        787180 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Bought 100 lot at 83cts thinking will not drop further..but decided to short from 82cts to 73cts to recover/mkae some $.....finally bought  back at 73cts ..short further hit low of 70cts but buy back at 70.5cts..look like have to wait till it hit <60cts then collect to keep like what happened in the past..I like Bengster mid August target of $1.25 appears impossible to achieve but at least made some kopi $ by shorting without fear of being caught naked since recovery of Biosensor is so slow
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
jackjames Elite	03-Aug-2007 14:45        jackjames About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	0.775 is not too bad. going to break 0.70 soon... hmm..
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
sports12 Member	03-Aug-2007 12:45        sports12 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	When will Biosensors rebound?? Me vested 175 lots at 0.775. Holding the shares with cash. Should I hold on or cut loss?
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me

                                                         First   < Newer   10541-10560 of 10899   Older>   Last