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Is Biosensors a good buy?
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bengster68
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21-Oct-2007 23:11
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No, JNJ will not buy up Xtent (long lesion or mutiple lesions in one single delivery) or Devax (Y-shaped bifurcated stenting for joint arteries). Xtent and Devax depend on BIG's Biolimus drug and PLA biodegredable polymer technology. Actually Xtent and Devax's stent techology is not difficult to do and I believe BIG has the capability to do it themselves by redesigning the metal structure using s-stent platform and delivery system. But BIG is still a very small company and "lend out" their DES technology to collect milestone/ royalty payments and to capture other DES sub-market while BIG will handle the main single lesion market. If BIG is to develop it all these sub-categories DES by themselves, BIG will be burning even more cash now and BIG cannot afford to do that presently. If BIG is bought up by JNJ, JNJ will have the financial muscle to do all their own in-house long/multiple lesions or bifurcated DES. The most valuable part of DES is still the drug and polymer IP and patents. This area requires the most skill and is the most difficult part of a good DES. JNJ will definitely go for the main licence IP and patents holder.....BIOSENSORS! They offered to takeover BIG before and will come back and offer BIG another higher offer again. No doubt about it. After Biomatrix's CE approval, JNJ will come and have another serious round of negotiations. It is just a matter of price. Recent developments have been very unfavourable to JNJ. JNJ have only 2 choices left: Either they buy BIG and be the big guy again for the next 10 years (BIG still have Biomatrix-Freedom and fully bioabsorbable DES in their pipeline) or JNJ vanish from the DES industry by 2010. |
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787180
Master |
21-Oct-2007 22:05
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Bengster68 i really admire yr faith in this counter..and sincerely hope U'll make gd $$$ eventually but this counter is indeed juicy for shorting targets because recovery is slow up but down is very fast and swift..but will bauy back <60cts |
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novena_33
Veteran |
21-Oct-2007 18:47
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look like wrong timing.... monday look like can collect more at gd price... |
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tiptop123
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21-Oct-2007 16:17
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I believed some of the BIG's licensees (such as XTENT, DEVAX) will eventually be acquired by larger stent company. Bengster68, what will be the implication if J&J choose to acquire XTENT instead of BIG? Can BIG terminate or renegotiate the licensing agreement with XTENT? |
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bengster68
Master |
19-Oct-2007 13:12
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I think Greg Stone is convinced of BIG's technology. Maybe he even bought some BIG's shares quietly via nominee. Since Greg Stone is the principal investigator for Xience, then he should know that Xience has a very dangerous and looming polymer problem. Xience's ultra thin flora durable polymer that is non-adhesive and non-sticky to promote better stent delivery is actually causing the Everolimus drug coating to split with the polymer coating. Abbot has been warned to pull out Xience from the market by experts but they refused. Normally until patients start dying and investigation found that the product indeed has this problem plus media reporting then the manufacturer will pull out the product. Medtronic also suffered the same problem for one of the heart devices very recently. 5 patients died and investigation found that its due to faulty/easily broken electric wires, the media reported it and then Medtronic stop selling the heart device. Medtronic have been warned before on faulty wires by experts but they chose to ignore it. Can make money now. better make now. Today got wine, today get drunk. Look at Cypher and Taxus, can cause deadly late-thrombosis problem but can still continue to sell and make money. So why pull out the product if they still can bullsh#t their way thru and justify it is still beneficial to use? Xtent's share price also pinned down by BIG's biomatrix's CE approval delay. If Biomatrix get CE approval, you will see Xtent's share price rocket also. I suspect after Biomatrix's CE approaval, Devax will proceed with their IPO listing. Biomatrix's CE approval will clear the clogged pipeline of approvals under the BIG's group of licensee using biolimus drug and PLA biodegredable polymer. So once CE is approved, BIG's group and licensee can eat away quite a portion of market share from the existing DES players. |
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investor
Senior |
19-Oct-2007 10:52
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If it is any consolation, the share price of Biosensor's licensee, XTENT has been trending up from a low of approx US$7.40 to a high of US$10.00 at yesterday's closing, with ave vol, higher than usual. Greg Stone, DY chairman of CRF (cardiovascular Research Foundation), has indicated in some of his presentations, that he owns shares in XTENT, as well as DEVAXX (Not listed yet. Greg Stone is currently the principal investigator for the Xience DES from Abbot Lab. For info. |
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bengster68
Master |
18-Oct-2007 21:39
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Some other rumour mongers (for their own agenda) at other forums said BIG's management indicated that the CE panel want more new trials to be conducted. It is totally bullshi#t and even the research report from OCBC Securities dated 13/09 also said CE does not require further new trials to be conducted. I think CE only want one last thing which will show out in TCT2007. If the trial results announced in TCT2007 are good, especially NOBORI 1 phase 2 in particular, the approval will be confirmed. This is provided CE do not change their goal posts again and demand ridiculous out-of-scope data for CE approval again. I believe BIG will have a gap up opening on Monday morning. Tomorrow could be the last trading day to enjoy the Monday chiong. But i could be wrong. Predicting share price is much harder than predicting a woman's mood. |
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investor
Senior |
18-Oct-2007 21:12
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I do agree. The price action of Biosensors does not show any degree of accumulation, although, I would classify it as 'neutral'. The good part of the chart - It has form a higher low of 0.69 (11 Oct) than the last previous low of 0.64 (21 Sep). It is still staying above its 20 day and 50 day mva. (Barely). The recent vol is quite low - indicating that traders do not quite know what to do about it. With 'built-in ' expectation of good news - any thing below expectation would probably cause the stock to break below 0.69, BUT at the same time, any positive surprises will probably the stock to cross its recent high of 0.74. It would be advisable to trade with a 'tight; stop-loss. |
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tiptop123
Member |
18-Oct-2007 18:59
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When I looked at BIG's share price these few days, I was rather disappointed. I never doubt what Bengster68 said was true, but it just doesn't seem to me it would breakout on Monday (Really hope I'm wrong). There are 8 broker firms covering BIG as stated in theirs website. 2 of them had recently, a month ago, set at TP $1.20 for BIG. We can understand why uncle and aunt don't appreciate BIG, but in-house traders should know BIG very well, at least they would have brought some in anticipation of the up coming good news. For those who are new to BIG, don't get too excited and buy beyond your means. BIG share price is rather unpredictable. Many people brought last round when BIG was at 1.00, in anticipation of the CE result, but many could not hold. Together with July correction, BIG price collapsed and drop to 0.63. My advise is, if you could not hold, please don't buy! There are many better stocks for gamble than BIG in market, for example uni-asia. Cheers! |
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gene88
Member |
18-Oct-2007 18:16
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Bro Bengster68, I remember in one of your earleir posts, you mentioned that the CE Panel has not asked for additional data/clarification since the last round. Does that mean the CE approval this time round, as what you have said, around 95%? If kena delayed again, which body is Biosensors management approaching to carry out investigation? |
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bengster68
Master |
18-Oct-2007 17:40
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I expect BIG trial results to be freaking good. No other DES horses can fight against Biomatrix now. What we are afraid of is rivals poison this horse again at CE level. Very dirty business at regulatory approval level and i think still got 5% chance of CE delay due to out-right corruption that even an blind fellow can see thru it also. Further delay means the useful commercial life of this top breed DES horse is shortened. If CE still delay again, the whole Netherlands panel will definitely be investigated for corruption and BIG really mean business this time. BIG is focking pissed already for the infinite unfair delay. Just look at Endeavor results. Failed primary end-point against Cypher, failed secondary end-points aginst Taxus, high TLR against both Cypher and Taxus, higher early thrombosis rates against Taxus, Higher MACE rates against Cypher, etc. Medtronic still can get unanimous approval from FDA panel of advisors which the FDA will normally follow the panel's recommendation. Many other experts feel that Endeavor is not performing well in their trials. No one in the panel of advisors voted against Endeavor. Medtronic indeed is a high hand at regulatory approval stage. Confirm got kelong!!! |
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A02041315
Senior |
18-Oct-2007 16:56
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Bro. Bengster68.I bought 100 lots @0.70.Hopefully your are right. thank you. |
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bengster68
Master |
18-Oct-2007 14:46
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Sunday afternoon USA time will be BIG's TCT2007 presentation. That means Monday morning Singapore time (plus 13 hours to USA time). I believe BIG will put up their trial results released at TCT2007 on Monday 8.30am on their website and SGX announcement before trading starts. I believe the trial results will be super fantastic, so monday morning it will chiong a bit but will not cross 100 days MA of 80cts. By right monday should be the biggest chiong if this stock is listed in NASDAQ because extremely good clinical trials prove your DES is top class globally. But by left in SGX many investors do not understand how to comprehend the trial results and its significance to BIG as a pre-earnings company. Every ah pek and ah soh only know CE for this stock so CE is the mega chiong factor for BIG in local context. Look at CONOR Med, they had their CE long ago but their trial results very jialat and the whole company becomes a total write-off. To me, trial results are the most important factor for BIG and technically it should command much heavier weight than CE approval. A lot of competitors can have CE approval but none of them can show top class clinical trial results. BEACON, STEALTH1 (3 years data), 2, LEADERS (6 months partial enrollment), BIOMATRIX-FREEDOM (early human clinical trial data) and other licensee's trial results from JW (CREATE), Terumo (NOBORI 1 phase 2), XTENT (CUSTOM), DEVAX (AXXES), etc.... The whole umbrella group of DES players using BIG's biolimus drug and PLA biodegredable polymer will show very good results. The whole group will make a strong name for themselves at TCT2007 with BIG as the leader of the group. All the top global cardiologists attending the conference will say, "Hey wait a minute, this small but emerging group under BIG has the best clinical trial results so far right under our nose and make the rest of DES majors' trial results look so pale in comparison. This emerging group under BIG looks like the answer to the future of DES." Like i said many times before, buy only when you are convinced of BIG's drug and stent technology. Dont buy because you hear a rumour on forum that BIG will chiong very soon. Still i could be 5% wrong on my CE predictions by end October. Nothing in this world is for sure except death and tax. |
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jackjames
Elite |
18-Oct-2007 14:09
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why monday? hmm. |
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novena_33
Veteran |
18-Oct-2007 14:08
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then we will wait for few more days..... 
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teresa
Senior |
18-Oct-2007 13:05
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jackjames, i also on que for 695. bengster68 hope you are right. |
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bengster68
Master |
18-Oct-2007 12:52
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JackJames, I just don't want you to miss any huge chiong in case you off-load BIG for small trading gain. News driven stock so when the news announce, immediate chiong will follow. But looks like your entry/exit timing has been quite good so far. Tomorrow is the last day to load up BIG cheap. Look at the low volume now......... what the bird. This TCT2007 will be superb for BIG. Biomatrix will make Cypher and Taxus obsolete, Xience and Endeavor a second rated newer DES. BSX and JNJ will come closer to BIG and start some serious talk again. The clinical trial results will speak for itself. |
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jackjames
Elite |
18-Oct-2007 06:45
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bengster, you will not believe when I tell you this... I buy and sell Biosensor about 5 times..., not 62 cents, but 64 cents.. however, I always take profit of this counter when it made about SGD 800 gain.. but then, thinking to bet on the CE approval, surge of the price, I am always tempted to go in again as long as the price is below 70 cents.. that's why, here I am, 0.695... but this 5 times buy and sell, can earn a few rounds, and back to the original "stand" - 0.695 like yesterday... but I do agreed with you, should not buy and sell in such a short term manner, but again, biosensor pattern "IS ALWAYS LIKE THIS" as I monitor it for 2 years... I even bought at 1.02 and sold at 1.08 ... anyway, let's load up somemore tomorrow if it dip ... |
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bengster68
Master |
17-Oct-2007 23:28
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Jackjames i thought you bought some at 62cts? You sold them off already is it??? Frankly i don't quite like short-term traders because they tend to do further damage the fragile state this stock is in. Too many short term players and too scattered shareholder base. Wait until end october then we will see. I think got 95% chance of it coming out, I leave 5% chance for out-right corruption at CE panel. Got so many new reports and studies to counter the over-blown late-thrombosis problem of DES. Biomatrix doesn't have any late-thrombosis problem and is clinically the best DES so far. CE will find it extremely hard to reject BIG again. More than 2.5 years already....... The corrupted CE panel has already done a lot of damage to Biomatrix. Biomatrix could have been selling better than Xience if they were approved 1.5years ago. Anyway, JNJ market share in CE standard countries kena taken over aggressively by Xience and Endeavor. Now JNJ will face Biomatrix very soon. I think JNJ's Cypher will be totally edged out of CE approved countries in 2 years time. Xience FDA panel review is on 29/11/07. If approved, Xience will hit US market in Q2 of 2008. Endeavor will hit the US market in Q1 of 2008. JNJ will kena left, right, centre very hard. They know BIG is their last hope for survival in DES market. JNJ cannot wait for too long and time is not on their side. If you happen to be able to collect BIG shares cheap now, hang on to them dearly for the takeover situation could happen really fast and furious after BIG's CE approval. All we need is the $3 offer and the deal will be on anytime. JNJ knows they can recapture back all their lost market share in CE markets very quickly and command at least 50% global market share eventually with acquisition of BIG. This is how powerful BIG and JNJ's combination will be. Think of the leveraged power JNJ. Just focking pay the $3 per share and you will be the big guy in global DES arena for the next 10 years. Don't be stingy to BIG. Whats lost for Conor is a write-off. Do the right decision now. You still have a choice before its too late. 2 more trading days left before the first spike on Monday. Better load up some while you still have some chance. Please don't betray the long-term holders by selling out too soon after the chiong and affect the pricing for takeover negotiations. I would seriously suggest you guys hang on tight to BIG even after CE because FDA IDE and NASDAQ listing plans may just come out anytime. I already buckle up my seat belt for the massive chiong. |
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Maxximo
Member |
17-Oct-2007 21:15
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Seems that more and more people are looking at this counter. Well, all i can say is nothing venture nothing gain. Hopefully, it will start moving soooooon .... i'm vested too... long long time liao ... Bengster68, U should consider doing a IR site for BIG volunteerily .... i'm sure there will be alot of hapi soul out there if you do that. Lastly, do keep us posted if there is any new updates .... ( If is bad news, keep it to yourself ... just joking ) Cheers to all BIG supporter ..... |
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