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Is Biosensors a good buy?
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dcang84
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26-Oct-2007 13:53
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The returns on this counter is pathetic. Let your capital work harder for you instead of waiting for some CE Mark approval.Sheesh, this counter is such a waste of time, money and patience. |
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bengster68
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25-Oct-2007 23:36
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Lets be rational about BIG because i have always been a big bull of BIG and people think im too emotional over BIG. If BIG's trial results are lousy and their technology is no top world class standard, I wouldn't be so bullish even if BIG has CE Mark. If their stents has problems and not easy to solve the problem, i will be the first to unload all my shares. I can understand why BIG didn't do much publicity and forecast of JWMS. I suspect they could be doing some more deals related to JW and it is to BIG's detriment to blow the trumpet of JW's full potential now. I can also understand why the reason for US$5m milestone from Terumo was not disclosed due to confidentiality agreement with Terumo and my guess is NOBORI has been awarded IDE by Japanese regulators. But Terumo has published the new NOBORI trial results on their webpage, this is public news and presented at TCT2007 and there is no reason for BIG not to make it public too here in Singapore. Not just the super low MACE rate, super low late-loss figures, no early and late thrombosis problem, but also the full details on DES efficacy end-point measurements. If they had done their investor relation better to help investors here understand BIG better, it will definitely help a lot to the share price. The globally best DES technology company is right here in SGX and the share price still behaving so hopeless. What the bird!!! |
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investor
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25-Oct-2007 22:49
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To put the whole thing in perspective, I don't think that BIG choose to ignore the Nobori's stent excellent results, BUT rather, they are taking into account the sensitivities of Terumo - BIG should not hijack the results without the permission of Terumo. If you look at the confidentiality of the various news flow from Terumo, even with the payment of the US$5m milestone, BIG is bound by agreement not to reveal anything. I think that investors should not get too disappointed with the lacklustre performance of BIG - the mkt will only look for catalytic events like CE Mark approval, etc. Only if funds start to take an interest, will BIG move uptrend, or some broking houses start a 'new' coverage, or any new 'newsflow' from BIG themselves, regarding the potential revenue/profits from the recent acquisition of JW Medical, Indonesia, etc. Looking at the des landscape, BIG still looks good for the next few years, with their bio-degradable polymer. The bio-degradable stent from Abbot, and others will take a few years to develope, and it will probably be good for very,very simple lesions (No permanent scafolding - will it collapse, when the stent dissolves ?), whereas, the majority of today's lesions are very long, diffuse, etc. From the recent TCT symposium, the various prominent speakers, like Gregg Stone, Renu Virmani, Peter Fitzgerald, Eberhad Grube - there is a strong sense of the validity of BIG's proprietary drug,polymer. In Xtent's media conference, an analyst mentioned to Eberhad Grube, that one cardiologist told him that Xtent's angiography results were 'very clean', and asked Eberhad for his opinion. His reply was that 'yes !, the results were 'stunningly clean'. BIG's share price will move, once all this is realised by the investing community. Although, I must say that everything 'looks good', BUT if there is anything that is detrimental, in which we are unaware of, then the whole scenario will have to be re-visited |
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garfgarf
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25-Oct-2007 20:55
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hi any bro can advise me on this share? have been buying this share since Aug 07 at prices of between 0.65 - 0.865 ave price is 0.762. vested 425 lots should i sell when it rises after the announcement of CE Mark or wait for takeover. thinking of selling partial after CE announcement as my 'BULLETS' for other shares is running low... |
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bengster68
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25-Oct-2007 19:17
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Im just very diasppointed with BIG on their investor relation department. They have the full set of NOBORI results and still not published in their website or announced via SGX. I mean if an outsider like me can get it thru Terumo's webpage and put it in the forum for people before BIG, then I think BIG is really not doing a good PR job and taking care of investor's interest/create more investor awareness. They should know this is a very important news as NOBORI 1 ph 2 is a RCT against Taxus Liberte (the best DES from BSX) and BSX the current global DES leader. If your stent can beat the current top DES easily, you are already top class globally. Why not fluant it to the public and make people more aware of what your company is capable of doing and explain to them the significance of the trial? How many DES can beat Taxus Liberte with such a huge gap of difference? They have to capitalise on matters like these. Also, where is the interim result of LEADERS? Pre-earnings company if PR still don't do it properly, the end result will be weak share price. Citigroup fock up BIG's IPO big time and today's weak share price is partly to blame by the horrible IPO. They promised to bring in big US funds at price it at $1. The US funds didnt come due to investment restrictions and IPO was priced lower than the lower range of IPO price. The public subscription tranch was so huge that share price bombed on the first trading day. Where are the anchor holders and syndicate? Only freaking house traders manipulating the share price and too much public free float. In a well co-ordinated good IPO offering 25%, we will see public free-float tranch of only 2.5% of the total shares. 90% of the offered shares at IPO (22.5% of total shares) will be placed to strong institutions as anchors for better control. Look at the mess now........ Even Fidelity and Capital Group who bought in May 2007 also cut loss in Aug and Sept and exited. I feel BIG need 3 big funds to buy up US$20m each to mop up and reduce the free float before we can see better control of share price. I think BIG has spoken to several big funds but so far their indication is to wait until CE is approved and there is more visability of revenue and earnings before the funds will commit. Thats why at this moment, BIG is like "can see the gold but cannot dig it out". Plus, the founders of this company will not sell of this company below $3 at the present moment. If they lower it to $2, JNJ will take it anytime. All the retail investors happy, shortists die bird stand, BIG will be the biggest biomed success story in SGX. From hopeless to top class biomed company. I also want to sell to JNJ at $2 and move on. But JNJ want to buy all 100%. No control they don't want. But we cannot fault the founders as they started this company from scratch and is their life asset. This $1 difference means hundreds of millions for them. |
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novena_33
Veteran |
25-Oct-2007 17:36
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how can.... we need him this time... 
A380 dont have internet connection.....how can.... must tell SIA.... how to be World Class Airline......so Mr Bengster can cheer for us.... joking bro.... Looking at how this co hooking up itself with the rest of the other co...they are doing a good job... when they get CE.... the Big Boy will pay a premium price.. BIG need Bengster to pop this guy up  DONT have $2 dont sell.....
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poppy_toyz
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25-Oct-2007 17:23
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Wait until no wind liow.... I think Bengster is on his way to Australia on the new A380. That's why no sound no music from him..... |
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novena_33
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25-Oct-2007 17:10
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we need some east wind.... to blow this fellow up...... 
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eastwest
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25-Oct-2007 16:42
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Hmmmm...... what's with the repeated consecutive one lotter? Who is buying 1 lot at a time repeatedly and consescutively? |
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poppy_toyz
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25-Oct-2007 11:47
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No update from Bengster....so quiet in biosensor??? |
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bengster68
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24-Oct-2007 10:38
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Taxus is the worst DES among all DESs. No wonder late-thrombosis is an issue in this industry with Taxus's huge market share. But this situation won't last for long. I suspect Boston give a lot of kickbacks to doctors for using their products and spend a lot of money sponsoring doctors and entertainment. After studying further data on more clinical trials, I confirm Taxus is worse than Cypher and the worst in the industry. One doctor friend saw the picture slides of Taxus, Cypher, Xience, Endeavor and Biomatrix months after implanted and concluded Biomatrix has the best vessel recovery and Taxus is really horrible. Taxus should be banned and Boston investigated for kickbacks to doctors. Another friend's aunt went for an angioplasty and the cardiologist insisted on using Taxus because "it has the track record". Track record for what?? Patients death??? That focking cardiologist must have his own agenda for strongly recommending the worst DES and the most expensive one. |
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clauswu
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24-Oct-2007 08:57
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Future for DES looks bright: CHICAGO, Oct 23 (Reuters) - Boston Scientific Corp (BSX.N: Quote, Profile, Research), battered by a drop in sales of implantable heart devices, on Tuesday said it sees early indications demand for drug-eluting stents will rebound as their benefits outweigh safety fears. "The evidence is beginning to mount for a recovery. We have not seen one yet, but the indicators are beginning to fall into place," said Boston Scientific Chief Operating Officer Paul LaViolette. Cardiologists stopped referring patients for the artery-clearing treatment earlier this year after a study showed the implanted wire mesh tubes may be no better than medicines in forestalling death. Now, doctors' confidence in the long-term use of drug therapy is waning, LaViolette said. More than 80 percent of interventional cardiologists, the specialists who perform stent procedures, now predict stable or increasing usage of drug-eluting stents, LaViolette told Wall Street analysts attending the Transcatheter Cardiovascular Therapeutics meeting in Washington, D.C. He was citing the company's research. His remarks were Web cast. The number of patients sent for cardiac diagnostic testing is rising again, after referrals slowed in the wake of the study, LaViolette said. "This should be a leading indicator of actual changes in procedure volume," he said. Some physicians switched back to use of older-model bare metal stents as still other data pointed to a greater risk of dangerous blood clots forming with the drug-coated varieties -- another strike against the more expensive drug-eluting products. The drug coating they emit is designed to prevent the blood vessels from reclogging. LaViolette said doctors are now seeing an increase in patients who previously received stents returning for repeat procedures. Because coronary artery disease is on the rise, the pendulum will swing back in favor of growth in drug-eluting stent usage, LaViolette predicted. The question, however, is when. "The restoration of momentum will take longer than the taking away of momentum that we saw last year, he said. Boston Scientific earlier this month announced plans to reduce its work force by about 9 percent and restructure or sell several business units in an effort to reduce operating expenses. Sales of implantable cardioverter defibrillators to manage heart rhythms, the company's other key product, also slumped after a string of product recalls since 2005. LaViolette said Boston Scientific currently holds a 46 percent share of the world market for drug-eluting stents, with Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.N: Quote, Profile, Research) at 39 percent, Medtronic Inc (MDT.N: Quote, Profile, Research) at 8 percent, Abbott Laboratories (ABT.N: Quote, Profile, Research) at 5 percent and other smaller competitors at 2 percent. |
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abc2xyz
Senior |
24-Oct-2007 07:43
Yells: "A stock sucker always enriches the market makers" |
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Bengster, I really respect your knowledge in the company and its industry. You really take efforts to know your company, its products and the playing field where the big guns pit their corporate manoeuvres. You're well read. On BIG, the company appears to me to be aggresively into expanding globally and taking a short cut into the marketplace by buying into existing distribution networks and credible enterprises. I think this is really a very smart move. They have got into China's, Indonesia's, established into Japan's (esbtablishing office but not yet heard acquiring companies yet) and looking forward into India's markets. They are already playing in Europe and if I'm not wrong, the N & S Amereicas. Long term hold on this counter is surely going to reap untold profits. I have already bought part of my target shares and would still accummulate and will even to the extent of averaging up. Now we are drawing to the end of October and should be getting good news coming forth. Will have high target price. Cheers. |
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bengster68
Master |
24-Oct-2007 00:31
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JNJ is not an investment company. They will not do open market purchase and push up the share price and cause even more ambitious takeover price demanded by BIG's shareholders. Even if JNJ start mopping up the free-float shares, they still cannot control 51%. No control means takeover failure and JNJ will be deemed as endorsing their competitor BIG's product by buying aggressively into their shares. JNJ will be shooting in their own foot! For a successful takeover to happen, the offer price must have the blessings of key shareholders/close associates. JNJ must have control of the target company. No control means meaningless takeover. Not only control, full control! They grow by taking full control of the target company and must integrate Biosensors into their global ops to reap full benefits of taking over Biosensors. |
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bengster68
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24-Oct-2007 00:06
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Medtronic's Uncertain Endeavor The drug-coated stent might have made up for Medtronic's recent product recall, but renewed scrutiny of the device has executives scaling back expectations On Oct. 15, Medtronic began recalling a component used with defibrillators, implantable devices that keep the heart beating regularly. Recalls like this make for alarming headlines, and this one will cost Medtronic millions in lost sales. But defibrillators are only part of Medtronic's troubles these days. The Minneapolis company is also seeking approval from the Food & Drug Administration to market a drug-coated stent?a tiny metal tube used to prop open clogged arteries. Over the past year, a series of studies have raised concerns about whether drug-coated stents cause potentially deadly blood clots, making the FDA particularly vigilant about reviewing new stents. That became all too clear on Oct. 5, when an advisory panel to the FDA raised a question: Did Medtronic (MDT ) study the stent, named Endeavor, long enough to prove that it is safe? New data suggest that in clinical trials, Endeavor caused more blood clots than Taxus, a market-leading drug-coated stent made by Boston Scientific (BSX ). Medtronic's stock fell nearly 4% on the news, to $54.82. Then, on Oct. 15, the company's shares took another hit, falling to $49.35 on the recall of the component, which is used to connect a popular defibrillator to patients' hearts. NEW STENTS UNDER INTENSE SCRUTINY. It's a touchy time to be in the business of cardiac devices. The recall could erase up to $250 million from Medtronic's top line this quarter alone, the company estimates. The new stent might help make up for the loss, but even there, Medtronic is facing a massive marketing challenge. In addition to mulling over the blood-clot concerns, cardiologists have been debating whether stents are more effective than drugs for treating coronary artery disease. All told, the worldwide market for drug-coated stents could fall 23% this year, to $4.1 billion, estimates Michael Weinstein, an analyst for JPMorgan Chase (JPM ). "Medtronic makes the argument their product is safer, but whether that's true is up for debate," Weinstein says. In data released on Oct. 5, Endeavor showed a 0.8% rate of blood clots after nine months, as opposed to a 0.1% rate for Boston Scientific's Taxus. Most of the recent safety concerns have been around "late-stent thrombosis," a potentially deadly blood clot that can form a year or more after a drug-coated stent is implanted. The company said in a statement that safety signals after one year were consistent with earlier trials and didn't result in exceptionally high rates of blood clots, heart attack, or death. Boston Scientific Chief Medical and Scientific Officer Dr. Donald Baim says in an e-mail that Endeavor hasn't been proven to be any more effective than currently marketed stents. "The question is why would one wish to use a less effective drug-eluting stent, if there are no clear safety benefits?" he asks. Ultimately, an advisory panel to the FDA recommended that the agency approve the device. The product could be the first new entrant in the market for drug-coated stents since 2003. Still, Medtronic will have to follow patients in its clinical trials for five years after Endeavor is approved, to reassure the FDA?not to mention doctors and patients?that the long-term safety profile is at least equivalent to that of older stents. The next stentmaker to face regulatory scrutiny will be Abbott Laboratories (ABT ), which is preparing to launch its new drug-coated stent, called Xience. While early data have been promising, investors are reserving judgment until later this month, when the company will release one-year results from a trial that will be pivotal for gaining FDA approval. John Capek , Abbott's executive vice-president for medical devices, is confident that recent concerns about safety and efficacy will spark interest in the second generation of drug-coated stents. "It's not that physicians don't believe in the concept, it's that the first generation isn't perfect," he says. "We learn, we improve, we bring the next technology forward." The FDA will review Xience later this year. IMPROVING POTENTIALLY RISKY POLYMERS. In designing new stents, device makers have been focusing on polymers, thin films that elute healing medication for a month or so. After the drug is gone, the polymer stays behind. The potential for blood clots to form later "is thought to be multifactorial, but in part could be due to inflammation from the polymer," explains Scott Ward , senior vice-president and president of Medtronic's CardioVascular Div. Endeavor's polymer is made of a chemical that the human body normally recognizes as a naturally occurring substance. That could lessen the chance of an inflammatory response, Ward says. Both Abbott and Medtronic are working on developing stents with biodegradable polymers that will dissolve completely over time. That could reduce the risk of blood clots even further. Despite all the activity in stent development, Medtronic executives have a sober view of the market they're about to enter. Says Ward: "We expect there will be renewed usage of drug-eluting stents. But we don't think the market will return to its peak." *The beauty of Biomatrix is that it has the best performing efficacy function of top class DES in short term and reverts back to a BMS after 6 months and probably the lowest MACE rate stent around. We all know that BMS has no late-thrombosis blood clots after 6 months implant. BIG's stent technology is what i call revolutionary. BIG was awarded the top 50 bio companies globally to watch out for in 2006. BIG's technolopgy is not an idea only..... it is working and working very well. I feel fully bioabsorble DES hopes to achieve zero late thrombosis but will eventually have very high late-loss which causes vessel renarrowing and could be a source of future problem. I mean, when there is no scaffold metal strut to prop open the vessel anymore, naturally the vessel which was previous clogged will attract new plaques to start accumulating on the previously clogged area. Just my opinion. |
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potatoballs
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23-Oct-2007 23:52
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Hi bengster,
I don't understand why JNJ won't buy the shares of BIG, since they believe in the company and even want to do a takeover. Based on the current discounted price, wouldn't it be better for them to buy the shares? Or is there a reason why they are not allowed to?
Doesn't sound right that they don't wanna buy the stock now....
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bengster68
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23-Oct-2007 23:45
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Someone mentioned JNJ may target Xtent or Devax for takeover. I have an article here which you may be interested. Xtent is losing US$60m a year. Conor was losing US$50m a year. Considering BIG being the leader of the Biolimus A9 and PLA biodegredable polymer group did the massive LEADERS clincal trial, BIG's expenses are very controlled already. BIG's profitability will turnaround in 2009 and start to see exponential profits. By 2010, BIG's profits will be comparable to a solid blue chip stock. This is still a pre-earning company and only a really experienced biomed VC can fully evaluate BIG's real potential. Someone said why JNJ will buy BIG when they are retrenching DES staff? My answer is because JNJ bought the wrong company (Conor) and their sales are falling like mad to newer DES players like MDT and ABT and JNJ's DES future looks very bleak now. Do you see MDT or ABT retrenching their DES staff? I think they are hiring now. The DES usage will take a while more (one year more) to stabilise and i believe by 2009, you will start to see growth in DES usage again. DES is here to stay, but with careful evaluation for suitability of usage. Patients now are more educated and have much wider choices and top performing DES like Biomatrix will be their choice. How Xtent is weathering safety worries about medicated stents In September, 2006, Gregory D. Casciaro, chief executive of Xtent (XTNT ), was feeling optimistic as he roamed the halls at the European Society of Cardiology meeting in Barcelona. Just weeks before, Xtent had filed to go public to raise capital for continued testing of its experimental drug-coated stent. Doctors had used Xtent's device in live procedures at other conferences, generating good buzz on Wall Street. But then, in Barcelona, a group of scientists presented evidence that cast a pall over all drug-coated stents. It showed that such products put patients at higher risk of heart attack and death, compared with old-fashioned bare-metal stents. "Oh, my God," Casciaro thought. He was about to learn the perils of stewarding a promising medical innovation under a spreading cloud of safety concerns. Casciaro and his colleagues at the Menlo Park (Calif.) company quickly regrouped, devising a plan to use the new studies as a way to differentiate their product. During their pre-IPO road show for investors, they stressed that their stent potentially is safer because it is coated with a new drug, and cardiologists can adjust its length to fit the size of the clot. In the months that followed, as a confusing collection of new studies cast further doubt on drug-coated stents, Casciaro stuck to his script. Xtent, he told anyone listening, "is not another me-too." At first, the message seemed to resonate. Xtent went public at 16 a share on Feb. 1, raising $75 million--squarely in the middle of the range executives hoped for. But the stock began falling on the day of the offering, sank to 8, and is still struggling to bounce back. To get the device approved in the U.S., Xtent will need additional capital next year for two more trials. If the stock doesn't rebound, it might have to look at less attractive alternatives, such as borrowing, says Jose Heresco, an analyst for Merriman, Curhan, Ford (MEM ). "That [share] price is about the overall sentiment toward drug-eluting stents," Heresco says. "It's hard to find a silver lining." Unexpected glitches added to investors' jitters. During European trials, some doctors commented that the handle used to deliver the stent was clumsy to use. Back in Menlo Park, Casciaro rang a ship's bell that hangs in Xtent's offices, summoning 150 employees to explain the problem. And he halted the studies while the handle was redesigned. In May, Xtent announced that there was a 9% rate of adverse events such as heart attacks in one of its overseas trials. That's half the rate in some tests of Boston Scientific's (BSX ) Taxus stent. Still, the mere mention of "adverse events" caused Xtent's stock to drop 10%. "That was our fault," says Casciaro. "We didn't set the tone properly." Analysts predict Xtent will lose more than $60 million this year and won't turn a profit until 2010. If its device gets any positive pickup in Europe, where it's likely to hit the market next year, the startup could get acquired. But Casciaro refuses to dwell on takeover scenarios. "We plan on carrying this banner as far as we can ourselves," he says. |
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doshur
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23-Oct-2007 22:31
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today they posted announcement SGX to tap into indonesia network.. seems BIG is going to be a big time in time to come... holding on tightly... |
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Maxximo
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23-Oct-2007 22:06
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Bengster68, Half of my fixed portfolio is with BIG ... and i'm sticking to it all the way. i just treat it like Fixed D, waiting for the payout eventually. On a serious note, all your posts had let me understand the nature of BIG better. Thank you for this. Hope that we can celebrate together when BIG really make it "BIG" timesssss ........ |
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bengster68
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23-Oct-2007 21:27
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NOBORI and BIOMATRIX is exactly the same stent. NOBORI is the private label for Terumo. Just like Xience from Abbott and Promus is a private label of Xience from Boston. Biosensors can use NOBORI's trial results to support their approval. If Biomatrix is CE approved, Xtent, Devax will be also just behind in getting their CE approvals because they are licensee of our stent drug and technology. Biosensors is a small company so need licensee to get milestone payments, let the licensee handle their costly clinical trials, handle different geographic region, or develop various variants of DES for different stenting purposes but using Biosensor's technology and drug. Eg: Terumo will be handling mainly Japan market and also other region except US market and selling under NOBORI label. Devax will be selling bifurcated Y-shaped DES for joint arteries stenting procedure, Xtent specialises in stenting long lesion or multi-lesions all in one single angioplasty device. But all these variants can be easily replicated as the technology involved for these variants are not very difficult. What is most difficult and valuable part is the proprietary drug and biodegredable polymer technology and patents. One thing for sure is Terumo, Devax and Xtent will not be happy if Biosensors is bought up by a big stent player. A buyer like JNJ has huge financial muscle will cut-off licensing agreement if they can, negotiate for a better deal/royalty payments and most likely develop their own in-house brand of stent variants which is technologically not very difficult to make (if you have the money) to take away the licensee's market share. In summary, if you are a small startup company, you share and sub-out your technology and collect some milestone payment as living expenses and potential future royalties and let your sub-con do the costly clinical trials themselves and you can make cross reference of clinical trials like Biosensors using Nobori trial results for CE. If you are a large corporation and have cash to burn for all kinds of clinical trials portfolio to improve the name of your own DES, you will do everything in-house and capture all the potential geographic areas, product variants to reap the full profit maximisation of your own proprietary and patented drug and stent technology. CE got no deadline. I will not go into the details of how i derive my best guess of CE approval date. If by 15/11/07 still no news, my advice for weak holders is to sell off some and wait for the next round of CE discussion which will be about 3 months later. BIG is like a gold still stuck in the rocks. I think the IPO and free-float is mis-management and poor investors knowledge of BIG's potential that causes this sort of share price. Plus, CE delayed for so long and long term investors losing patience. This company is no GV. This company has the best top class DES drug and revolutionary stent technology and owns all the IP and patents. DES is very lucrative and high barrier of entry business. I'm telling you JWMS will make about US$16m this year and US$25m next year and can list in NASDAQ somewhere early next year. JW's potential is really very huge. |
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