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Dow Outlook

guoyanyunyan
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06-Aug-2013 10:06

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Stock market set to ‘rip higher,’ pro says ....

Further appreciation for stocks will happen, along with a sharp drop for gold, Joe Terranova of Virtus Investment Partners said Monday.

" I continue to side with buying at these highs because I think further appreciation in the market is going to happen," he said, adding that he continued to expect the Federal Reserve to begin tapering its $85 billion of bond purchases in September.

On CNBC's " Fast Money," Terranova said that he was adding to consumer discretionary stocks.

" I think you're going to see a rip higher," he said, adding, " I think gold is going to fall another 20 to 25% from where it is here."

Terranova also said that he expected flown to continue into the equity markets from fixed income.

" We talked about a little bit of chase for performance," he said. " You're going to have all these portfolio managers that are going to get these new inflows of actual dollars that they have to put to work, no matter what their opinion of the marketplace is. I see the acceleration. I don't see any real correction in the next couple of weeks. I just want to keep buying it here."

Stephen Weiss of Short Hills Capital said that he was taking a pause.

" We're due for – not a major sell-off – we're due for a consolidation," he said. " The market should pull back maybe another 4, 5%, and then we're off to the races."

Weiss added that he was not putting on any new positions " just yet."

Josh Brown of Fusion Analytics said that he was a buyer.

" The degree to which we're in may fluctuate, but always in," he said.

" Right now, the consensus thinking is that we're just going to muddle through," Brown added. " And if that's the case, you'd have to say that stocks are pretty fairly valued. It's hard to find even a bull who's going to tell you that stocks are cheap in a muddle-through scenario."

" However, there is a new dawning right now amongst a lot of market participants that maybe muddle-through is not guaranteed. Maybe we do something more. Maybe we have actual economic growth this time. There's no concrete evidence, but there are signs everywhere."

Brown added that the most recent ISM report was " red hot."

" We're actually buying the stocks we like," TheStreet CIO Stephanie Link said, naming such companies as Anadarko, Occidental, Timkin and Eaton.

" Those are names we've been buying on weakness because we do believe in the long-term stories," she added. " And on the flip side, you get some really good numbers, like Schlumberger and AIG, and we actually added to them, too, because the trends are still very favorable."

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Tomique
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06-Aug-2013 09:50

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Nice to read good news and sad to hear ugly news. All we need is due diligence.

For me, I think US stocks will drop very soon drop like a bomb. So be careful and it would be good to stay in sg market which is uninteresting but lesser risk of bursting. Lose will also be not heavy.

HSI is dropping and expected to sink another 500 to 800 points dragged down by HSBC results not upto expectations. My 2 cents.

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guoyanyunyan
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06-Aug-2013 08:59

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US market tells us it is bullish! So says the non farm report

Dear Friends,

A clear sign of a very bullish market is still intact in US. That is despite a less than expected figure in the non farm payroll. The actual result of 162k is very much less than 184k. On Friday, after the release of non farm, DOW started 70 points down but ended up 30 points at the close.

This shows bullishness in the market. One SECRET I often used to gauge the confidence of the market is by reading the price action after important economical reports . With such a disappointment, the market still rallied to close at a high. Nothing is more bullish than the US market now!

It seems like August might not be a bad month afterall. Market sentiment is high. This is shown in the US stocks too. Many of the companies that miss their earnings, came back in prices a few days later.

At this present moment, the market is so forgiving to poor economic reports and companies results. I can't see why this bullish run will stop.

That means good for the Asian market too.No panic seen yet.

Regards
Daniel
www.danielloh.com

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guoyanyunyan
Elite

06-Aug-2013 08:47

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U.S. stocks end mostly lower Nasdaq gains ....

Fed hawk Fisher says Federal Reserve readying to start taper

Equities are “due for a pause or a period of consolidation, as we digest recent gains and as we gain visibility into upcoming headwinds,” said Terry Sandven, chief equities strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.

Fed Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher, one of the more ardent critics of QE, told an audience in Portland, Ore., that investors should not count on the Fed to continue its $85 billion in monthly bond purchases indefinitely.

“Fed officials are reporting what we already know, that they are entertaining when to ease QE,” said Sandven.

Fisher’s speech followed an upbeat report on U.S. service industries in July. The Institute for Supply Management’s nonmanufacturing index jumped to 56.0% in July from 52.2% the prior month.

“The economy in general continues to show pockets of strength,” and the services index at a five-month high, along with last week’s manufacturing reading, “suggest we are seeing improving conditions,” offered Sandven.

Recouping from what began as a 73.53-point fall from Friday’s record finish, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 46.23 points, or 0.3%, to 15,612.13.

The S& P 500 index shed 2.53 points, or 0.2%, to 1,707.14. Utilities and industrials paced sector declines, while technology and consumer staples performed the best among the index’s 10 major industry groups.

The Nasdaq Composite added 3.36 points, or nearly 0.1%, to 3,692.95.

For every two shares gaining, roughly three fell on the New York Stock Exchange, where almost 533 million issues exchanged hands. Composite volume surpassed 2.5 billion.

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Tomique
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06-Aug-2013 08:25

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" The Dow will be forever up like going to Mars" , but nothing is forever because we still have to return to earth. Hahaha.

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stockpicker
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06-Aug-2013 08:17

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Last night is a down day but not a confirmation of the hang man.

stockpicker ( Date: 04-Aug-2013 20:25) Posted:

A hangman candlestick was spotted in the DOW. It is up to you to interpret if it is dangerous.

http://skyjuiceiswater.blogspot.sg/2013/08/the-hang-man-candlestick-is-it-dangerous.html

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guoyanyunyan
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05-Aug-2013 16:54

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Europe stocks rise after PMI, broker upgrades

LONDON (MarketWatch) — European stock markets extended gains into a sixth straight session on Monday, with several firms on the rise after broker upgrades and investors welcoming a rise in euro-zone PMI data.

...more...

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stockpicker
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05-Aug-2013 10:11

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May ask why DOW will rally to record high this week? This rally was sustained by QEs both, ECB and Fed have just met in July and released their statement which saw a " blip" in the stock prices. Just wonder how this " blip" can be expanded to a " blop" without Draghi or Benanke injecting more money into the market.

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sgxwinner
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04-Aug-2013 20:59

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Dow Jones may rally to record high next week again.

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stockpicker
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04-Aug-2013 20:25

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A hangman candlestick was spotted in the DOW. It is up to you to interpret if it is dangerous.

http://skyjuiceiswater.blogspot.sg/2013/08/the-hang-man-candlestick-is-it-dangerous.html

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guoyanyunyan
Elite

03-Aug-2013 09:07

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U.S. stocks gain as jobs data ignite bonds ....

Dow industrials notch 6th weekly win, longest streak this year

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S. stocks tallied small gains on Friday, lifting the Dow industrials and S& P 500 to record closes, as bonds rallied and the dollar fell after the July jobs report fell short of forecasts.

Treasurys rallied after the jobs report, sending the yield on the benchmark 10-year note down 11 basis points to 2.604%.

The dollar fell against the currencies of major U.S. trading partners.

The Labor Department reported the economy created 162,000 jobs in July and the unemployment rate fell to 7.4%. Economists polled by MarketWatch had forecast growth of 180,000 jobs and some analysts had grown even more optimistic, calling for a gain of more than 220,000.

“The jobs report was very ho-hum it didn’t really change the narrative. The only reason people are disappointed is because expectations were raised so much,” said Dan Greenhaus, chief global strategist at BTIG LLC..

In a speech Friday afternoon, St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said the central bank needs to see ”more data” before deciding whether to reduce its $85 billion in monthly bond purchases.

Bullard is a “centrist, so to speak, so for him to say we need to wait until we get more data is not unimportant information,” said Greenhaus.

After trading lower for most of the day, U.S. stocks erased losses in the afternoon to end higher. Erasing a 69-point drop, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 30.34 points, or 0.2%, at 15,658.36, its 30th record close this year and leaving it up 0.6% on the week.

A day after clearing 1,700 for the first time and ahead 1.1% from last Friday’s close, the S& P 500 index climbed 2.80 points, or 0.2%, to 1,709.67, its 25th record finish this year.

The Nasdaq Composite rose 13.84 points, or 0.4%, to 3,689.59, giving it a 2.1% weekly gain.

The technology-heavy index on Thursday ended at a more than 13-year high of 3,676.78, nearly 1,400 points from its all-time closing high of 5,048.62 set on March 10, 2000.

Advancers pulled just ahead of decliners on the New York Stock Exchange, where 676 million shares traded. Composite volume cleared 3.1 billion.

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guoyanyunyan
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02-Aug-2013 15:15

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5. Information overload

Feeding all these ideas is the financial media smorgasbord of 2013, piled with a wealth of data and analysis as well as clever soundbites masquerading as insight. Even in a less-complicated macro environment it would be difficult to separate quality news from noise, actionable events from headline-grabbing hype, long-term investing strategies from get-rich-quick marketing tactics.

There’s always the old platitude about Wall Street climbing a “wall of worry” during rallies, and that a healthy dose of skepticism is a good way to keep investors honest and maintain perspective.

But just be sure that your perspective on this rally is rooted in some kind of factual argument. There’s no guarantee you will make the right call in this crazy market, of course, but you will have a much better chance of investing wisely if you can be self-aware and avoid these pitfalls.

Jeff Reeves is the editor of InvestorPlace.com. Follow him on Twitter @JeffReevesIP.

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guoyanyunyan
Elite

02-Aug-2013 15:13

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4. Reluctance to buy a top

I personally believe the market is ready for a pull-back after front-loaded returns, lackluster earnings and continued downward revisions to GDP forecasts at home and abroad.

But admittedly, that perspective may be colored by the fact that I have some ready cash to invest and I’m leery of buying a top midyear a correction would be just what I need to invest with confidence.

My sense is that many rally doubters are those with similar motivations, trying to turn back time to a missed buying opportunity — and as soon as they get their 5% to 10% dip, they can eagerly become bulls. Of course, keep in mind that those who bought back in May right before the Dow broke 15,000 can hardly be accused of buying a top.

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guoyanyunyan
Elite

02-Aug-2013 15:11

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3. Stubbornly sticking to a bad call

Hubris and delusion are occupational hazards on Wall Street, and it’s often more common to see investors double-down on a bad call rather than admit a mistake. Take Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital, who continues to beat the hyperinflation drum despite his dire warnings in 2008 coming to nothing and nearly every data point proving the opposite.

Look, we all make stupid calls as investors and it actually shows maturity and perspective to admit a mistake and move on. (For the record that’s why I attempt to personally disclose my stupid mistakes regularly). There’s no shame in a bad decision made during the unprecedented state of global markets over the last five years — but making the same mistakes in the face of new data just to avoid saying you were wrong is no way to run a portfolio.

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guoyanyunyan
Elite

02-Aug-2013 15:10

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2. Moralizing over corporate profits

This year, corporate profits as a share of GDP hit their highest level since 1950. Meanwhile, jobs are hard to come by and wages are stagnant with median household income 8% lower in 2011 than it was in 2007 before the financial crisis hit. Furthermore, median household income is down almost 9% from its 1999 peak.

Many think it is unfair for corporations thrive as the American people struggle, and I happen to agree. But moralizing over whether U.S. stocks should make more money as their workers is a philosophical and political issue… not a portfolio issue.

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guoyanyunyan
Elite

02-Aug-2013 15:07

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5 reasons everyone hates this bull market

Commentary: Faced with evidence, buyers still don’t believe

Investors have been making a ton of money lately, with the broader Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index up almost 20% this year through July and gaining about 35% since January 2012.

Longer term, the S& P 500 is up 70% in the past decade — and that’s not even counting dividends!

So why is everyone so quick to doubt the rally? Let me count the ways:

1. Failure to separate stocks from the economy

Consider China, which will see GDP growth above 7% this year but has seen its stock market drop about 12% as measured by the SSE index. Or take Germany, which will be lucky to finish 2013 with any GDP growth at all, but has seen a rally of about 9% in the DAX this year. Many well-meaning pundits talk about U.S. economic headwinds as they relate to U.S. stocks — but in truth, stocks and economies can and do move separately.

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guoyanyunyan
Elite

02-Aug-2013 13:20

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Bull hits bull's-eye at 1,700 is S& P 2,000 next? ....

It was a bold stock market call. A rare trio of predictions, measured in price movement and time. And it's been spot on, at least so far.

Last August, when the S& P 500 stock index was around 1,400 and investors worried about the presidential election, U.S. fiscal woes and Europe's debt problems, Craig Johnson, a technical market strategist at Piper Jaffray, predicted the stock gauge would rise to 1,700 within 12 months.

At the time, no other Wall Street strategist's price target was even close.

The market made Johnson look smart today, when the benchmark S& P500 closed above 1,700 for the first time, three weeks earlier than he had predicted.

....

Not only did he predict the S& P 500 would top 1550 in six months (which it did less than seven months later on March 8), then climb to 1700 in 12 months (which it did today, taking a bit more than 11 months), he also predicted it would hit 2,000 within 24 months. [ie one year from now, or Aug 2014]

" We've hit the second mile-marker in our bullish call," Johnson told USA TODAY after 1,700 was taken out.

He's still confident that the final mile — the S& P 500's climb to 2000 — is do-able.

...more...

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guoyanyunyan
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02-Aug-2013 11:55

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Stocks have risen for nearly every jobs report this year ....

The monthly jobs report has delivered an up day for the stock market almost each time this year.

On the seven days that the jobs reports has hit the tape, the S& P 500 has averaged a gain of 0.7%.

Just one day featured a decline – April 5, when the benchmark index fell 0.4%. The jobs number beat expectations on five out of those seven days, according to a Bespoke Investment Group report published Thursday.

But would-be buyers of S& P 500-tracker should know the trend isn’t so clear over longer time frames. Including 2012 with 2013 performance (in other words, the past 19 jobs-report days), the S& P 500 has averaged a gain of just 0.1%, according to a MarketWatch analysis of FactSet data.

Bespoke Investment Group went back even further, looking at 24 previous reports, meaning to June 2011. The S& P 500 averaged a loss of 0.1% on the past 24 jobs-report days, according to Bespoke. The year 2011 featured some sizable down days after a jobs report, such as a 2.5% drop on Sept. 2, 2011, following a weaker-than-expected number.

How much does it matter to investors whether the jobs report beats or misses private-sector forecasts? For a start, Wall Street’s track record in forecasting payrolls is just so-so. In the 24 reports back to June 2011, the reported number of new nonfarm jobs was better than expected 13 times for those 24 reports, or in 54% of cases. As would be expected, stocks generally rallied on the beats. On those days, the S& P 500 averaged a gain of 0.5% with positive returns 69% of the time.

For Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, economists polled by MarketWatch expect the economy added 180,000 jobs in July, down from the 195,000 added in June. The unemployment rate is seen slipping to 7.5%. Other employment data out this week has been better than expected, with the ADP report on private-sector jobs and weekly jobless claims beating forecasts.

–Victor Reklaitis

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guoyanyunyan
Elite

02-Aug-2013 08:29

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Stocks leap to record S& P 500 tops 1,700 ....

Wells Fargo analyst: Market comfortable with September tapering

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S. stocks leapt on Thursday, with the S& P 500 surpassing 1,700 for the first time, after the Federal Reserve said it would continue stimulus and data showed jobless claims falling to a five-year low and a manufacturing index surging to a two-year high.

“Seventeen-hundred is our year-end target, so this has been faster and stronger than we expected,” said Marc Doss, regional chief investment officer at Wells Fargo Private Bank, referring to the S& P 500.

After climbing 5% in July, its largest monthly jump since January, the S& P 500 index on Thursday rose 21.14 points, or 1.3%, to 1,706.87, clearing 1,700 for the first time.

Industrials led gains that included all of the S& P’s 10 sectors.

Also finishing at a record, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 128.48 points, or 0.8%, to 15,628.02, after rising to an intraday record of 15,650.69.

The Nasdaq Composite added 49.37 points, or 1.4%, to 3,675.74.

For every stock falling, nearly two gained on the New York Stock Exchange, where almost 755 million shares exchanged hands. Composite volume neared 3.7 billion.

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guoyanyunyan
Elite

01-Aug-2013 16:36

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Index Future	Future Date	Last	Net Change	Open	High	Low	Time
Dow	Sep 13	15,497.00	+64.00	15,480.00	15,517.00	15,475.00	04:18:39
S& P 500	Sep 13	1,688.30	+7.80	1,685.50	1,690.90	1,684.70	04:18:38
NASDAQ 100	Sep 13	3,096.75	+13.75	3,092.00	3,100.75	3,092.00	04:18:38

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