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Nikkei Outlook

guoyanyunyan
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08-Aug-2013 16:16

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Nikkei Ends Sharply Lower On Futures Selling

TOKYO (NQN)--Tokyo stocks fell sharply Thursday, with the Nikkei Stock Average tumbling 219.38 points, or 1.59%, to end the day at 13,605.56, the lowest level since June 27.

Investors moved to the sidelines ahead of a news conference by Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda following the central bank's two-day policy board meeting. The Nikkei average was pushed down by futures selling.

After China released stronger-than-expected trade data, the benchmark index briefly surged almost 200 points to top 14,000. However, investors began selling stock index futures mid-afternoon, prompting stock selling to unwind arbitrage positions. As a result, the Nikkei average again fell into negative territory.

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guoyanyunyan
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08-Aug-2013 12:22

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China exports, imports rebound sharply in July

LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) — China reported much better than expected trade results for July on Thursday, marking a sharp recovery from the previous month.

Chinese trade data showed exports rising 5.1%, swinging from June’s 3.1% fall, the customs agency said.

Imports, which had dropped 0.7% in June, showed a 10.9% leap for July.

The results far exceeded expectations from a Reuters survey of economists for a 3% gain in exports and a projected 2.8% increase from a Dow Jones Newswires poll. Reuters had tipped a 2.1% rise for imports, while Dow Jones reported an estimated gain of 1.3%.

The resulting trade surplus narrowed to $17.8 billion, down from June’s $27.13 billion and behind a forecast of $27.2 billion from the Dow Jones Newswires poll.

“Much better than the market was expecting, and the fact that exports were so much better which help” third-quarter GDP results, wrote Kim Eng Securities strategist Andrew Sullivan following the data release.

While some economists are skeptical of most Chinese data, the trade numbers often draw especially strong doubt from foreign analysts.

Amid reports of false invoicing and other factors seen as skewing the trade data, China’s foreign-exchange regulator announced a crackdown on such practices last May, resulting in numbers significantly weaker than economists’ estimates over the past two months.

“China July trade data ... probably overstates [the gains] as June understated. Truth [is] in between,” AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver wrote on Twitter in reaction to the numbers.

Among the detail of the trade report, shipments of electronics — which made up almost a quarter of the total — rose 11.3%, while apparel exports rose 13.9%.

As for imports, those of crude oil rose about 20%, as iron-ore purchases gained 27% and coal imports increased by 18%.

Chinese stocks rose following the results, with the Hang Seng Index extending its 0.4% gain ahead of the data to trade 0.8% higher. The Shanghai Composite Index swung from a 0.3% loss to a 0.5% advance.

The Australian dollar, often sensitive to the economy of Australia’s top trading partner, rose to 90.55 U.S. cents from 90.16 U.S. cents, while the benchmark S& P/ASX 200 stock index moved from a 0.8% gain to a 1.4% climb.

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guoyanyunyan
Elite

08-Aug-2013 09:13

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Nikkei consolidates in a directionless triangular pattern

Dear Friends,

Asian indices are consolidating. We can see it in the Local market like STI and KLCI. One of the reason is because the leading index for this year is now resting in a big triangular pattern. Like what we mentioned in our previous article, we don't expect Nikkei to break its peak of 16000 at least for the next 6-9 months.

Now it is resting. So does our local indices. Only DOW is hitting all time high again.

Not that easy market to play with. We need to probably spend more effort in picking the right stock. In general the market isn't moving much.

Rgds
Daniel
www.danielloh.com

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guoyanyunyan
Elite

08-Aug-2013 09:04

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Nikkei Opens Lower On Dlr's Fall Vs Yen

TOKYO (NQN)--Tokyo stocks opened slightly lower Thursday, with the Nikkei Stock Average sliding 45 points, or 0.33%, to begin the day at 13,799.

The dollar's decline to the 96 yen level is prompting investors to sell exporters.

13,939.03
+114.09 (+0.83%)
Open	13,779.47	(09:00)
High	13,986.77	(09:30)
Low	13,777.11	(09:02)

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guoyanyunyan
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07-Aug-2013 15:00

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Nikkei Ends Below 14,000 Logging 4th Biggest Drop In '13

TOKYO (NQN)--Tokyo stocks fell sharply Wednesday with the Nikkei Stock Average plunging 576.12 points, or 4%, to end the day at 13,824.94, the lowest point since July 31.

The benchmark index also closed below 14,000 for the first time since July 31. The losses, the largest since June 13, were the fourth biggest drop this year.

Investors dumped exporters from the morning onwards in line with the yen's rise. In the afternoon, speculative futures selling surged ahead of the calculation for the liquidation price for the August contract for stock index futures and options, scheduled for Friday. This led to investors selling cash stocks to unwind arbitrage positions, pushing the Nikkei average down further.

The trading value on the first section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange totaled about 2.13 trillion yen on a preliminary basis.

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guoyanyunyan
Elite

07-Aug-2013 08:29

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Nikkei Opens Sharply Lower On Dollar's Fall Vs Yen

TOKYO (NQN)--Tokyo stocks opened lower Wednesday, with the Nikkei Stock Average plunging 245 points to 14,155 before widening its losses to more than 300 points.

The dollar fell to the lower-97 yen level, its lowest level in a month and a half. This is prompting investors to sell exporters, including Toyota Motor Corp. Overnight losses on Wall Street are also weighing on the Tokyo market.

Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd. opened lower even though the company said Tuesday that its group pretax profit for the six months ended June rose 26% on the year.

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guoyanyunyan
Elite

06-Aug-2013 15:58

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Nikkei Ends Higher On Purchases Of Stock Index Futures

TOKYO (NQN)--Tokyo stocks closed higher Tuesday, with the Nikkei Stock Average rising 143.02 points, or 1.0%, to end the day at 14,401.06.

In morning trade, the benchmark index was trading lower, briefly falling more than 200 points. But positive momentum increased in the afternoon, with speculation that the Bank of Japan will buy ETFs, as well as repeat buying of stock index futures, pushing the Nikkei index into positive territory.

There were no major buying or selling factors driving trade throughout the day. The prevailing view is that active trading of futures, including buybacks by overseas hedge funds and other investors, led stocks higher.

With many investors on summer holidays, trading was relatively subdued. Trading value on the first section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange totaled 1.94 trillion yen on a preliminary basis, falling below 2 trillion yen for the second straight trading day.

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guoyanyunyan
Elite

06-Aug-2013 15:03

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Hong Kong stocks fall as HSBC drops sharply

LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) -- Hong Kong stocks fell sharply early Tuesday, with a loss for the benchmark Hang Seng Index all but assured after its top component, HSBC Holdings PLC, posted a drop in first-half revenue, sending its shares falling in London.

The Hang Seng Index lost 1.4% to 21,906.69, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index dropped 1.4%, and the Shanghai Composite gave up 0.5%. HSBC shares traded 4.8% lower, tracking a 4.4% loss for its U.K. stock as it reported a slowdown in emerging-markets growth.

Other banks also gave ground, with Standard Chartered PLC off 1.4%, China Construction Bank Corp. down 1.7% and Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. retreating 1.6%. Losses for London-traded aluminum and copper helped send Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd. down 1.6% and Jiangxi Copper Co. 1.9% lower, while Angang Steel Co. fell 2.9%.

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guoyanyunyan
Elite

06-Aug-2013 14:49

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Australia cuts rate by quarter-point to 2.5%

LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) -- The Reserve Bank of Australia cut its policy interest rate by a quarter percentage point Tuesday to an all-time low of 2.5%, as markets had widely expected.

In a statement accompanying the decision, RBA Gov. Glenn Stevens cited the Australian currency as a factor, saying the Aussie dollar " has depreciated by around 15% since early April, although it remains at a high level" and that a further easing " would help to foster a rebalancing of growth in the economy."

Stevens also left the door open for further cuts, saying " the inflation outlook could provide some scope to ease policy further, should that be required to support demand." Various surveys showed economists saw a quarter-point cut as a near certainty, with Reuters reporting market rates had also priced in a further cut to 2.25% by the end of the year.

The Australian economy is threatened by a slowdown in the nation's mining boom, with Stevens having warned last week of a sharp drop in investment in the sector in the coming months. In his statement Tuesday, Stevens said " the economy has been growing a bit below trend over the past year."

The Australian dollar rose to 89.64 U.S. cents after the rate cut, compared with 89.24 cents just before the announcement. As for stocks, the benchmark S& P/ASX 200 extended its loss to 0.2%, after having traded down 0.1% prior to the decision.

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guoyanyunyan
Elite

06-Aug-2013 14:39

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Nikkei Stock Average(*Close)

14,401.06
+143.02 (+1.00%)
Open	14,237.10	(09:00)
High	14,401.06	(15:28)
Low	14,031.61	(11:14)

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guoyanyunyan
Elite

06-Aug-2013 08:31

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Nikkei Opens Tad Lower On Wall St Losses, Yen's Rise

TOKYO (NQN)--Tokyo stocks opened slightly lower Tuesday, with the Nikkei Stock Average sliding 20 points to begin the day in the lower-14,200 level.

The Dow Jones industrial average closed 46 points lower overnight and the dollar fell slightly to the lower-98 yen level. Because of that, sporadic stock selling is taking place.

However, selling pressure appears limited because market conditions did not worsen much.

14,129.39
-128.65 (-0.90%)
Open	14,237.10	(09:00)
High	14,261.70	(09:09)
Low	14,088.59	(09:16)

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guoyanyunyan
Elite

06-Aug-2013 08:27

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IMF Warns Of Risk Unless Japan Reins In Its Debt

The IMF made a fresh call on Japan's government to bring its flow of red ink under control, saying on Monday that the central bank's monetary easing could backfire if investors believe it is " monetizing" the growing mountain of government debt, a step that often leads to financial turmoil.

The IMF has recently hardened its rhetoric toward Japan, suggesting concerns that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's cabinet appears divided over whether to stick to a plan to raise its sales tax. Raising government revenue is generally considered vital to reining in public debt.

" It has been -- and remains -- the IMF's view that it is critical to move ahead with the consumption-tax increase," Jerry Schiff, deputy director of the IMF's Asia and Pacific department, said in an interview.

Delaying the tax increase could affect the credibility of Japan's fiscal overhaul and trigger rises in Japanese government-bond yields that could hurt growth, he said.

Monetization refers to the central bank's buying government debt to finance spending. Mr. Schiff's reference may reflect growing worries within the IMF over Japan's possible retreat from budgetary overhaul.

The IMF has long called for Japanese fiscal reform, and did so in May after annual policy discussions with Japanese officials. But that statement didn't mention any risks stemming from concerns of monetization.

Under its aggressive policy launched in April, the BOJ plans to buy government bonds amounting to wholly 70% of newly issued debt. The IMF estimates Japan's public liabilities will reach 250% of economic output this year, the highest among industrialized nations.

In a report Monday based on annual policy talks with Japan, IMF staff commended the government's and BOJ's efforts to strengthen the economy, but said the policies could also benefit the global economy if the Abe administration can cut the debt and streamline the agricultural, health and labor sectors.

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Tomique
Master

05-Aug-2013 15:14

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The big big bear is on the way.

3 fears for the market and 1 fact

1. US taper or no taper going to hit business bad since money (liquidity) unevenly distributed. Main concern is the debts piling up and potential few more cities going bankrupt. Expected Michigan to come after Detriot according to some economists/analysts.

2. Slow China growth have rub-off effect on US and global markets as China buys and sell alot. Strong yuan expected to slow exports.

3. Japan still weak with their own tsunami aftermath.

Fact: Share markets everywhere has made historic highs. What goes up does not stay up forever.

guoyanyunyan ( Date: 05-Aug-2013 14:55) Posted:

Shares Decline After Slow US Jobs Growth Sends Yen Higher ....

Tokyo stocks declined Monday after tepid U.S. jobs growth data sent the dollar sharply lower against the yen, inviting selling in Japanese heavyweights such as Fanuc and Fast Retailing.

The Nikkei Stock Average fell 208.12 points, or 1.4%, to 14,258.04, following a 3.3% rise Friday.

The Topix index of all the Tokyo Stock Exchange First Section issues also dropped 11.43 points, or 1.0%, to 1,184.74, with 31 of 33 subindexes ending in negative territory.

Trading volume was low, totaling about 2 billion shares worth Y1.6 trillion.

Tokyo stocks opened lower after a weaker-than-expected reading on U.S. jobs growth Friday sent the yen sharply higher against the greenback. A stronger currency is bad for export-led economies like Japan. " Many Japanese earnings results have been weaker than expected, but many posted significant profit increases nonetheless," said Yutaka Shiraki, senior equity strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities. " Stocks may lack a clear direction, but there are no reasons for sharper falls."

Strategists said the downside for Tokyo stocks appeared limited as expectations remained intact for an earnings recovery at Japanese companies, particularly after Toyota posted a surprisingly strong first-quarter results Friday.

" Because we've seen relatively weak results for the first quarter at the beginning of the season, market participants were a bit worried, but such concerns are ebbing after we saw Toyota results," said Hiromichi Tamura, chief strategist at Nomura Securities. " We'll likely confirm even better results for the first half, and the Nikkei will likely resume its rising trend."

Nomura expects the Nikkei to rise to 18,000 by end-December.

" Japanese companies are quite competitive whether in auto, infrastructure, parts or materials," said Masashi Oda, chief equity investment officer at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank, which manages $472 billion, said in an interview.

September Nikkei 225 futures closed down 250 points, or 1.7%, at 14,230 on the Osaka Securities Exchange.

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guoyanyunyan
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05-Aug-2013 14:55

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Shares Decline After Slow US Jobs Growth Sends Yen Higher ....

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Tomique
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05-Aug-2013 10:32

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Nikkei is reasonably fearful of the economic problems or pending economic whirlpools in the US, resulting from debts building to be borne by future Americans (not born yet). Will it be beneficial or disastrous for US piling on and on their debts? Actually nothing wrong since debts are just a figure and if they need money to pay principals or interests, they can easily print the money to pay. So no problem, I think. Nikkei shouldn't be afraid to move up just like the Hang Seng (HSI) market. Hehehe..enjoy..

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guoyanyunyan
Elite

05-Aug-2013 09:38

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BRIC markets left in the dust ....

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guoyanyunyan
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05-Aug-2013 08:37

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Japan stocks slide Toyota, Isuzu shares rise

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- Japanese stocks fell retreated Monday to pull back after posting strong gains over the last two sessions, with several financial and technology shares declined after a weak U.S. jobs report Friday.

The Nikkei Stock Average gave up 1% to 14,318.70 and the broader Topix index lost 0.8% to 1,186.59.

Advantest Corp. dropped 2.2%, NTT Data Corp. shed 3.6%, insurer T& D Holdings Inc. gave up 2.9% and banking major Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. declined 1.7%.

The losses outweighed a 0.5% rise in shares of Toyota Motor Corp. , after the auto giant on Friday beat quarterly estimates and lifted its annual profit outlook. Isuzu Motors Ltd. climbed 1.2% after the Nikkei newspaper said its group operating profit may have jumped to a record.

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guoyanyunyan
Elite

02-Aug-2013 20:27

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Japan's Economic Growth Forecast For FY 2013 Raised To 2.8%

TOKYO (Kyodo)--The Cabinet Office on Friday raised its forecast for Japan's economic growth in fiscal 2013 to a real 2.8%, from 2.5%, saying Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's (安倍晋三 ) policies dubbed " Abenomics" have sparked economic recovery hopes and boosted consumer spending.

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guoyanyunyan
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02-Aug-2013 14:58

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Nikkei Jumps On Futures-Led Buying, Solid Earnings

TOKYO (Nikkei)--Tokyo stocks closed sharply higher Friday, with the Nikkei Stock Average rising 460.39, or 3.29%, to 14,466.16.

Gains on Wall Street overnight and the dollar's rise fueled buying in the morning. The Nikkei average continued to climb in the afternoon, supported by repeat buying of stock index futures.

Many market participants say the rise is mostly coming from speculative futures buying led by such investors as overseas hedge funds. Overseas pension funds and other investors are also buying blue chips because it is the start of the month.

The announcements of solid corporate earnings for the April-June quarter over the past few days have also prompted investors to buy shares.

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guoyanyunyan
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02-Aug-2013 14:37

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Nikkei Stock Average(*Close)

14,466.16
+460.39 (+3.29%)
Open	14,178.66	(09:00)
High	14,466.16	(15:28)
Low	14,146.92	(09:30)

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