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Rising palm oil prices
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oceanblue
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10-Dec-2007 14:56
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Today's Business Times article: "Indonesia's Papua Province to ban timber and crude palm oil exports next year" This will be good for Golden Agri as its plantations are in Kalimantan and Sumatra. With Papua's ban, crude palm oil price in international market will rise. Hence boosting Golden Agri profit for next year! Any comments? |
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oceanblue
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06-Dec-2007 14:52
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Nov 22 Article from BT on Golden Agri below: Business Times - 22 Nov 2007 Golden Agri a nice alternative to Wilmar By MATTHEW PHAN FOR a brief spell, palm oil refiner Wilmar International enjoyed the distinction of being the second largest stock by market value on the Singapore Exchange. Following a results briefing on Wednesday last week, its share price rose 8 per cent to $4.84 the following day, taking its market value to over $30.9 billion and past those of DBS and UOB. Wilmar has since retreated to fourth place, but the question lingers: Is the stock worth its salt? After all, the share price has already more than doubled since Wilmar announced a mega-merger with Malaysia's Kuok Group and others last December, to form the world's largest palm oil refiner. It trades at a price-earnings ratio of more than 60 times. Goldman Sachs, citing 'recent strength', removed the stock from its Asia Pacific Conviction Buy List on Nov 8, though it maintained a 'buy' rating with a target price of $4.60. Peers are trading at lower valuations. Other South-east Asian plantations, such as Malaysia's IOI Corp or Indonesia's Astra Agro Lestari, trade between 20 and 30 times. The plus side for Wilmar is that its business model differs from others in the palm-oil sector. Wilmar's earnings are the least sensitive to crude palm oil (CPO) prices, analysts say, because it owns far more downstream than upstream capacity, and operates non-palm-related businesses. While Wilmar owns some 570,000 hectares of plantation land in Indonesia and could produce some 1.5 million tonnes of palm oil by FY08, it also owns the world's largest refining facilities, with annual capacity expected to hit 10 million tonnes this year, about a quarter of global capacity. Even though it holds one of the largest landbanks, Wilmar is a major buyer of palm fruit. It is also the world's largest producer of palm-based specialty fats, used to make margarine, cooking oil, and even cocoa butter or olive oil substitutes. And it is building more than one million tonnes worth of palm-based biodiesel capacity, making it a significant global player and further boosting internal demand for CPO. Besides these, thanks to the merger, Wilmar owns 18 million tonnes of soybean crushing capacity, making it the largest soybean processor in China, with 25 per cent of national capacity. Downstream, it controls five of China's eight major cooking oil brands. Despite all this, fellow SGX-listed Golden Agri Resources (GAR) is at least equally attractive. Trading at a PER of just over 12 times, GAR is four times smaller by market cap but looks better. As palm oil plays go, GAR is diametrically opposite to Wilmar. Its plantation holdings stand at about 300,000 ha, but it has plans to acquire a further 1.1 million ha in Kalimantan and Papua (on Irian Jaya). This would boost landbank to 1.3 million ha and make GAR the world's largest palm plantation owner. And while Wilmar's refining capacity greatly exceeds its CPO output, GAR refined less than half its CPO output of over 1.5 million tonnes in 2006, choosing to sell the rest. GAR is building two more refineries, which would bring refining capacity above that of CPO production by 2009. It also sells cooking oil in Indonesia, and has a 25 per cent market share. But compared with Wilmar, its earnings are still far more sensitive to palm oil prices - as CLSA analyst Justin Yeoh points out, plantations accounted for 71 per cent of revenue and 95 per cent of net profit for 2006. From a base scenario of US$765 per tonne of CPO, Mr Yeoh thinks that if prices fall to US$650 per tonne, GAR's net profit could fall by more than a quarter. On the flipside, if they rise to US$850 per tonne, net profit would rise 10 per cent. The latter scenario is likelier. By most projections, CPO prices will remain strong, driven by demand for cooking oil and biodiesel. UBS, for example, raised its palm oil price assumption by 18 per cent from US$721 to US$850 per tonne for 2008. So which is better: world's largest palm oil refiner or world's largest palm plantation owner? Whatever the choice, for investors who think Wilmar may have run its course for now, GAR is a nice substitute. |
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oceanblue
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05-Dec-2007 15:38
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At $1.99 now. Looks like it's going to break $2. |
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oceanblue
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05-Dec-2007 11:11
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Based on the latest 3Q2007 EPS of US$0.03 & last trade price of $1.95, Golden Agri PE is 11.33.
Based on the latest 3Q2007 EPS of 215.6 Rp & last trade price of $2.64, Indofood Agri PE is 19.7.
Based on the latest 3Q2007 EPS of US$0.05 & last trade price of $4.58, Wilmar PE is 15.85.
Based on the latest 1H2007 EPS of 243 Rp & IPO price of $1.10, First Resources PE is 14.5.
So if Golden Agri were to reach PE of 15, its share price would be $2.58! Let's hold on till it reaches $2.58.
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oceanblue
Senior |
05-Dec-2007 10:43
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This one playing catch up with Indo-Agri and Wilmar. $2.00 possible? Golden agri cheong ah!!! |
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shadowless
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12-Sep-2007 21:23
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A massive 7.9-magnitude quake struck off the western coast of Indonesia's Sumatra island on Wednesday, triggering a tsunami warning for the entire Indian Ocean region today. Golden agri have their main plantation in Indonesia.... not sure will this have an huge reprecussion on their stock price? Any expertise advise ? |
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ricola
Member |
12-Sep-2007 15:15
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understand from my broker, we still can sell the stock we bought. Call your broker to confirm you actual holding qty. |
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invest&earn
Member |
12-Sep-2007 13:15
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ricola , thanks for the information. Is that mean I am not able to sell 10000 share (qty after split) until the correct qty (after split) being show in the CDP ? |
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ricola
Member |
12-Sep-2007 09:22
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You will only see the update is CDP account the next 2 days, i.e this Thu or Friday. |
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invest&earn
Member |
11-Sep-2007 19:50
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The stock already split today, but my CDP still shower 5000 share that I bought last week. I thought it should be 10000 share since the split is 2 for 1. Can anyone advise ? |
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invest&earn
Member |
08-Sep-2007 10:18
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Dear all, can anyone help to interprete below msg annouced by GoldenAgri? I just bought Golden Agri, not sure where whether i need to quickly make payment in order for them to correctly credit the split quantity to my CDP ? Announment on 21Aug "....the Share Transfer Books and Register of Members of the Company will be closed on 13 September 2007 at 5.00Existing Share?) and who wish to deposit the same with The Central Depository (Pte) Limited (?CDP?) for" p.m. to 14 September 2007 for the purposes of determining the entitlements of shareholders under the Proposed Share Split. Accordingly, all completed and stamped transfer forms together with share certificates and registration fees must be lodged with the Company?s Share Registrar, B.A.C.S Private Limited at 63 Cantonment Road, Singapore 089758 by 5.00 p.m. on 13 September 2007. Shareholders who hold physical share certificate(s) for the shares in their own names (? Certificate(s) the purposes of the Proposed Share Split, must deposit their Existing Share Certificate(s), together with
Board of Directors of Golden Agri-Resources Ltd (the ?Company?) wishes to inform that the last day for trading of the existing ordinary shares of par value US$0.10 each in the capital of the Company will be on 10 September 2007. Trading of the sub-divided ordinary shares of par value US$0.05 each in the capital of the Company will commence with effect from 9.00 a.m. on 11
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milesgao
Member |
23-Aug-2007 20:39
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The performance today was so good, 11% increase. How come it is still so quiet here?? |
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iTrader
Member |
15-Aug-2007 23:07
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From OCBC Reasearch Golden Agri-Resources Ltd: Growing within expectations Summary: Golden Agri-Resources (GAR) released a stronger set of 2Q07 results, which was generally in line with our expectations. Revenue grew a strong 47.6% QoQ to US$406.4m. As expected, higher CPO prices (an average of US$681/ton for 1H07 versus US$606/ton in 1Q07) contributed to the increase in revenue. However, a drop in production of 365,000 tons or 13.9% YoY due to the El Nino effect has hampered revenue growth, but we believe that production yield is likely to improve with better weather conditions going forward. Gross profit grew 71% to US$238m for 1H07, up from US$139.2m in 1H06, and in line with higher CPO selling prices. Operating profit grew an impressive 139.2% YoY to US$104.4m, even after removing gains derived from changes in fair value of biological assets. Net profit was up 193.2% YoY to US$262.6m, from US$89.6m in 2Q06. We are maintaining our BUY rating with fair value estimate of S$3.22 pending the briefing to be held later today. (Selena Leong) ** Not Vested |
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ricola
Member |
15-Aug-2007 20:34
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Market is bad, cash is KING....many ppl refuse to hold the stock and sold it cheap, that why it dropped. check out GAR's Interim Performance Presentation to Analysts |
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milesgao
Member |
15-Aug-2007 18:45
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why is it dropping so much while the performance was sooooo good in 1H2007? |
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hippoo
Member |
10-Aug-2007 00:19
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8 August 2007 Plantation Sector Quick takes - Time to bargain-hunt Singapore-listed plantation stocks were the worst hit by the recent sell-down. On average, these gave up 20% from the market's recent peak against the average 6% decline for Malaysian and Indonesian plantation stocks. After studying the various issues, we conclude that their sharper declines against regional peers could be due to weak market sentiment and profit-taking following their relatively stronger run-ups in the past year. Overall, we believe the sell-down on Singapore-listed plantation stocks is overdone and advise investors to accumulate the stocks. Maintain Outperform on Wilmar, Golden Agri and Indofood Agri with unchanged target prices. Key re-rating catalysts could include rising CPO prices and better-than-expected 2Q results. Full Report [ Click URL below http://www.gohdirect.com/NASApp/spaf/econtent/sg/SIN-Plantation-QT-080809.pdf |
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iTrader
Member |
08-Aug-2007 22:11
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In the event that the share split results in odd lot, is there any option to subscribe to excess ?. |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
08-Aug-2007 21:34
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Golden Agri is one of the world?s largest oil palm plantation companies.With a total planted area of 338,000 hectares located in Indonesia, it operates 31palm oil processing mills, 2 refineries and 4 kernel crushing plants. The Company?s primary activities include cultivating and harvesting of oil palm trees; processing of fresh fruit bunch (FFB) into crude palm oil (CPO) and palm kernel oil; and refining CPO into value added products such as cooking oils, margarine and shortening. GAR?s operations in China include refineries, port and oil-seed crushing facilities in Ningbo and Zhuhai. |
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trymyluck
Senior |
08-Aug-2007 15:40
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hi myinvest, thanks for the information. |
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myinvest
Member |
08-Aug-2007 15:06
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Hi Trymyluck If I am not wrong, the warrant issuer will do the necessary amendments and the announcment will be made over the SGX announcment once the split has been done. You can contact DB warrant team at 6238-8868 or email them at warrants.singapore@db.com. |
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