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will my STI 2400 really comes?
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kellychang
Master |
12-May-2010 09:04
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things to share One Year Later: Is The Bear Really Dead? The optimistic extreme we've been waiting for has finally arrived
The two columns below compare quotes from news stories in March-April 2009, vs. quotes from today's news:
One-plus year ago, there was no "fundamental-based" reason to believe the ongoing slaughter of stocks and financials would stop. The U.S. equity market was at its lowest level in 12 years, while the banking system seemed near a total collapse. In the words of the stories in the left-hand column above -- the bear was "tightening" its grip, the clearest path for stocks was "down," and there was no light at the end of the tunnel.
But as the quotes in the right-hand column show, the opposite happened: A 70%-plus rally in stocks and all-out rebound in investor optimism. This alternative is exactly what our analysts foresaw.
(Does Bullishness Equal Bull Market? The latest Financial Forecast Service reveals the objective truth behind the long-term trend in stocks. Get the complete story today)
Here, the following archive of EWI's past analysis stands in complete contrast to the "grim-reaper" sounding mainstream:
February 23, 2009 Short Term Update:
"If one is aggressively bearish the stock market, having a planned out exit strategy now is not only prudent, but necessary in light of some of the sentiment readings we see."
Namely, a 3% reading in the Daily Sentiment Index, the lowest level in the 22-year history of weekly figures.
February 23 Elliott Wave Theorist:
"Ideally, the S&P should continue down into the 600's. When it finds a bottom and rallies, it will be sharp and scary for anyone who is short. I would rather be early than later."
February 27 Short Term Update:
"The turn will come on or near March 10, 2009. Anywhere in this period may mark a turn, which will obviously be a market low."
The S&P bottomed two weeks later at 666.79 on March 9.
April 2009 Elliott Wave Theorist:
The rally "could carry the Dow as high as 10,000. Regardless of its extent, it should regenerate substantial feelings of optimism... the government will be taking credit for successfully bailing out the economy, and investors will be convinced that the bear market is behind us. Be prepared for this environment."
Flash ahead to today: The May 2010 Elliott Wave Financial Forecastpicks up where the April Theorist left off and positively confirms the "anticipated outbreak of rose-colored economic forecasts" and several bullish long-term sentiment measures. Among the most significant of these readings is a ten-year extreme in the 30-day moving average of the CBOE Equity put/call ratio. As the May Elliott Wave Financial Forecast points out:
"Options traders are making a big one-way bet on a two-way market."
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iPunter
Supreme |
12-May-2010 09:00
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This is absolutely correct... :) Investment is not the same for everybody... Every person is different... Some can lose, (or can afford to lose) big amounts temporarily, but they can still joke and enjoy karaoke with their friends... While others will feel a great sense of loss if the stock goes against their price just a day after their entry... Thus, no one can say which method is suitable for whom... Since money is the reason one plays the stock market, money is an extremely precious thing... |
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beruangface
Senior |
11-May-2010 18:25
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i totally agree with u, never aim to catch the bottom, it'll never happen, just buy gradually during corrections.. buy what u can afford, dont borrow to buy, so u have the power to hold if market go down further.. if u r a person that can't stand to see 'red' in ur portfolio within short term (few weeks to few months), dont follow my strategy, u won't go POK, u'll just go POK POK POK POKerface..
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iPunter
Supreme |
11-May-2010 17:36
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Even being "pok!' for just one week is depressingly unbearable for anyone, Not to mention months or years... Talk is cheap... |
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kellychang
Master |
11-May-2010 17:32
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wah....i dunno whether i got life to live 2-3 years or not leh.. 2-3 years is very long term u know? many things can happened leh
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iPunter
Supreme |
11-May-2010 16:52
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Yup... That is what I mean by miracle... But one can call it a black swan if one prefers... |
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pharoah88
Supreme |
11-May-2010 16:50
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wIth tOday's gOvernamcE mEss EvErythIng Is pOssIblE |
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iPunter
Supreme |
11-May-2010 16:34
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The real secret of stock market play is to have humility... Having humility means to easily admit one has been silly... And that's what I mean by having character... Because being assertive and arrogant with the stock market beast is not humility... That is ego-inflation...
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E-war
Veteran |
11-May-2010 16:23
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There will never be an ideal time... just buy at a suitable time with a 2-3 yr time frame. | |||||||||||||||||
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kellychang
Master |
11-May-2010 13:41
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well. i miss the boat again and again. sorry. silly kelly really a silly kelly :) hahahahaha
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Hulumas
Supreme |
11-May-2010 13:36
Yells: "INVEST but not TRADE please!" |
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Are you always on the bearish mood? You always short to gain instead of long to gain I suppose! Ha. ha.. ha...
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StarLine
Senior |
11-May-2010 13:11
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Maybe it will take some time for the trillions to be printed, to come in the stock market around the world, and then a rebound will happen for Singapore stock market ? |
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iPunter
Supreme |
11-May-2010 12:48
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This place is getting stuffy... |
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iPunter
Supreme |
11-May-2010 12:47
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It won't 'finish' ... More trillions can be easily created!... But the question is, will results be good?... hehehe...
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noobnoob
Senior |
11-May-2010 12:43
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mother farker trader?
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iPunter
Supreme |
11-May-2010 12:43
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Hahaha... :) You are absolutely correct, Sir... We are all gods!... hehehe...
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beruangface
Senior |
11-May-2010 12:41
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err..after 1.5 Trillion Euro is finish lor..
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des_khor
Supreme |
11-May-2010 12:38
Yells: "Tell me who is the God or MFT from this forum??" |
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ask MFT ! | |||||||||||||||||
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Juzztrade
Veteran |
11-May-2010 12:36
Yells: "Techincal and long term investor" |
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What is the time frame?
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beruangface
Senior |
11-May-2010 12:33
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original author is busy reading charts, she asked me to tell u the index now is -12 and 2400 will realize soon, so take it easy and be prepared for the doom day
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