Since the last update, the SSEC has been barely able to squeak out some gains on low volume, and is now at stiff resistance from the very downtrendline it broke earlier. Coupled with the 2950 historical resistance, we could see a move down lower from here. Initial support around 2700, followed by 2570. On the other hand, a break above the line on decent volume is bullish, and may lead to a re-test of 3150. Based on volume cues so far, the move down seems more likely. Here's the chart:
All the best!
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Shanghai Composite Index
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FearValueGreed
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07-Mar-2011 23:52
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Clearly is a good sign for STI. LEading index for Asia |
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trendlines
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07-Mar-2011 15:50
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Shanghai Composite: Upside Breakout! Last update on the Shanghai Composite noted resistance at 2950. After a decent correction, SSEC jumped up 1.8% today on good volume, and breaking out above this barrier. Target for this move up is 3180. But first, there may be a back-test of the breakout. Also, the medium-term picture will get very interesting around the target levels. Stay tuned! http://trendlines618.blogspot.com/2011/03/shanghai-composite-upside-breakout.html |
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trendlines
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17-Feb-2011 23:01
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Shanghai & Shenzhen Update - Reaching Resistance Zones Last update on the Chinese indices noted bullish breakouts, and i took positions short-term. Both indices are now reaching resistance zones, and may be vulnerable to a pullback here. Support for the SZSE is around 1230. A breakout above these zones will test recent highs. Note the increase in volume with the price. Will post bigger-picture chart when time permits. |
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trendlines
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10-Feb-2011 19:43
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Shanghai & Shenzhen: Break Up! In contrast to the HSI, Shanghai(+1.6% today) & Shenzhen(+2.9% today) seem to be breaking upwards on decent volume! In my last post, i had suggested that the decline in the SSEC was looking corrective implying a break upwards is possible. I am very short-term bullish, but still wary of the barrier at 2950 & 1235, on the SSEC & SZSE respectively. http://trendlines618.blogspot.com/2011/02/shanghai-shenzhen-break-up.html |
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trendlines
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20-Dec-2010 11:31
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Shanghai Composite: Testing Resistance(This was posted yesterday on the blog)
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trendlines
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13-Nov-2010 00:08
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Shanghai Composite Plunges: Was it the Interest Rates?!Just google, and you will find a few dozen reasons trying to explain why Chinese stocks plunged over 5% today. The question: Did these websites or analysts help investors GET OUT in time? Nope. Ok, fine. So did they help investors GET IN, in time for the rally? Here's another 'expert' analyst view in June 2010, with SSEC trading around 2430: Subsequently SSEC has gone as high as 3180, a 30% gain! So much for expert opinions. So who knew about the Rally? Folks who read up a bit of Elliott Wave Theory & basic Technical Analysis, knew with some degree of probability, that a five wave move in one direction is generally followed by a 3 wave move in the opposite direction (most of the time). This was the basis of the bullish call a few months ago on this blog. And how about the PLUNGE today? The extent of the decline (a whopping 5%) was not possible to envision, but we sure were setup for a fall. Although i couldn't publish this chart in time, here's three technical observations about the setup (see chart below): 1. Historical Resistance at 3180 2. Overbought with a clear negative divergence on the Daily chart. 3. Overbought on the Weekly chart.(not shown) And the catalyst (Interest Rate Hike) magically appears at this juncture! For the fundamental folks, this was a classic example of how technicals can help time your investment decisions better. So what's next? This move down looks like the back-test of the breakout above the downtrendline. Crucial historical support is also nearby around 2900. If we stay above the line, we may go sideways here for a bit before any attempts higher. I may buy SSEC around the 2900 level, with a Stop at 2850. An unlikely break down here below 2850, changes the picture, and has support at 2700. Watch the volumes on this pullback for clues. The medium-term target of the previous high of around 3480, still stands for now. Hang Seng Index - very short term On a side note, HSI has corrected as well, and seems to be developing a positive divergence on the hourly, indicating potential for a handsome rebound sometime next week. All the best! |
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trendlines
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27-Oct-2010 12:15
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Shanghai Composite: Another breakoutSince the breakout above 2700, SSEC has rapidly climbed up to the upper downtrendline. In the past few sessions, there has been yet another breakout - this time above the downtrendline. Take a look at the weekly chart below. Next target is the wave A high of around 3480. However, with the weekly RSI reaching overbought, i'd await confirmation - some form of consolidation around the 3100 level + a successful retest of the line from above - before adding new positions. Horizontal support around 2900.
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trendlines
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08-Oct-2010 16:51
Yells: "trendlines618@blogspot@com" |
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Shanghai Composite: The Tiger Leaps!My last post, "Shanghai Composite: Crouching Tiger" suggested an impending breakout above 2700. Today, the Tiger took the leap on high volume (+ 3.13%). I have added some long positions with a stop just below 2700. The initial target of 2900 from my last post still stands, with a potential short-medium term target of 3100. Watch out for resistance from the descending trendline.
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trendlines
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11-Sep-2010 14:12
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Shanghai Composite: Crouching Tiger?SSEC has been crouching just below 2700 level for the past few weeks. The two possibilities in my view are shown on the chart. Whichever the case, i'm looking for an initial target between 2900-3060 in the short-to-medium-term, and possibly even higher in the medium-term. Depending on your chosen vehicle for trading the SSEC, you may be outperforming big time, especially if you are in a small-cap focused etf or fund (Check out the FTSE Xinhua charts below).
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trendlines
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19-Aug-2010 23:05
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Shanghai Composite: Heck of a Ride!Since my post on Jul-5, "Why I am BULLISH medium-term" calling for a rebound, it's been one heck of a ride. From a low around 2350 to the current 2680 - a sweet 330 points (14%) gain! Hope some of you cowboys took the ride like i did. In the past couple of sessions, price broke an important trendline too. Although due for a correction in the next week or so, i maintain that there is high probability of more upside into this year-end (based on the EW count).
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trendlines
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26-Jul-2010 14:56
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Chanced upon a Fractal in Shanghai. http://trendlines618.blogspot.com/2010/07/chanced-upon-fractal-in-shanghai.html Take your time to study the two charts. What do you see? Could we be looking at a similar rally? |
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trendlines
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12-Jul-2010 20:58
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Since the last post around 2300, SSEC has moved up smartly to the 2490 region, and is now running into some resistance in the very short-term around 2500, and later 2700. Chart is self explanatory.
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DnApeh
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06-Jul-2010 08:58
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Walking on the lower B band. Not over yet despite over-sold indicators.
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FearValueGreed
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06-Jul-2010 04:09
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After World cup , the fall will begin for rest of the stocks markets.
2000 clearly achievable.
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trendlines
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06-Jul-2010 00:41
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Shanghai Composite: Why i am BULLISH medium-term. Last week's decline on the SSEC, got tongues wagging & China bears smacking their lips in excitement. This weekend i suggested that this was the final shake&bake, to throw panicked retail feeders off the trail. And yes, i maintain my medium-term bullish and long-term bearish, outlooks. Just like it has in the recent past, Shanghai will probably lead again with the recovery. This long-term chart below, going back 13 years, speaks volumes: http://trendlines618.blogspot.com/2010/07/shanghai-composite-why-i-am-bullish.html |
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FearValueGreed
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30-Jun-2010 00:09
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This one easily 2000 before taking a look again. Patience |
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DnApeh
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29-Jun-2010 20:59
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SSE out of lower B Band. RSI not over-sold. Looks to me to have broken down from a descending triangle that was formed since 20 May 2010. |
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Hulumas
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29-Jun-2010 20:17
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Yes, buy on dips, I 'll take your wise suggestion.
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rickyw
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29-Jun-2010 17:34
![]() Yells: "keep happy..." |
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Agree with you...too late to sell everything....
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Jackpot2010
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29-Jun-2010 17:06
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Just hold n hope for rebound, too late to sell anything. I'm vested in KepCorp, KGreen, Sembmarine, Hong Fok, GP Batt, SunnyTech, Beyonics. | ||||
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