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things every retail investor/trader should know
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baseerahmed
Master |
16-Feb-2009 21:22
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Trading in the Zone Excellent article (and book). http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=3413 There are only two books I'd recommend getting, for traders. One is The Intelligent Investor, by Graham, the other is Trading in the Zone, by Mark Douglas. Both have more to do with personality management, rather than "hot tips". Which is crucial, since your management of yourself is what will determine success or failure in the market place. As the famous saying in Sun Tzu's Art of War goes, zhi zi zhi bi, bai zhan bai sheng. (know thyself, know thy enemies, and you will be victorious in every battle.) http://www.elfinchilde.blogspot.com/ |
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AK_Francis
Supreme |
12-Jan-2009 17:05
Yells: "Happy go lucky, cheers." |
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Ha, AK guess, dressing few cts above closing px, if BBs wanted to push it high 2morrow. Though EU see a bit red at ds moment. No call for anything during pre-close period, quite dangerous.
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elfinchilde
Elite |
12-Jan-2009 16:59
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oops, my bad. on DBS: it's a pantang kantang BB playing it. so i won't be surprised if they decide to end it at 808 for today. |
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AK_Francis
Supreme |
12-Jan-2009 16:01
Yells: "Happy go lucky, cheers." |
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Yoh, 2day, the forum is overwhelming. Too much to learn n remember, old alrdy, no teeth, slowly digest liao. Tks for all d gurus.
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ticklish8
Senior |
12-Jan-2009 15:31
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Elf, thanks for sharing....:-) really appreciate it.
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elfinchilde
Elite |
12-Jan-2009 15:04
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livermore: ah yea. if one was lucky enough to buy at 1475, then just hold. the only problem is that with human nature, most would not buy at 1475. ticklish, ordinarily i'd prefer folks to learn to do their own TA. this is to lessen the chances of myself getting blamed for others' bad trades. :P but DBS for now, since its calculations are rather involved: ack. FA-wise, not a buy on any count. TA-wise, need to be careful: because the rights issue dilute the px by 1/3. ie, you need to skew your graphical count by 1/3. Their issue px is surprisingly high though. At 5.42, means "fair px" for DBS is calculated at ~8.13. Supports: If we do a technical count of 887 (oct 28 '08) as lowest low px for DBS CR, means XR, DBS worst-case scenario should be ~7.72. Tech support was 9 CR, so XR the support is 7.8. ..which also means that it may not be worth punting on the R500 issue. 2.7 is too high a premium. foreigners still tanking the counter. i see more than one big name in it. suspect the recent run up was to do a 'pump and dump', as local slang has it. some more rumors surrounding it. market depth queues are thin; below 810, 800 is the major support. frankly, i'd rather avoid it. when in doubt, rather not enter. Foreign names should be buying it if they believe in it; not dumping it. caveat applies. |
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ticklish8
Senior |
12-Jan-2009 12:32
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Hi Elf, tks for the reading on Capitaland. Do you have TA on DBS.... it is now trading $8.11 down 31 cents.
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Livermore
Master |
12-Jan-2009 11:57
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Hi Elf, In my previous post I mentioned if one had bought 10 - 20c from when STI reached 1475 not when Dow was 14000
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elfinchilde
Elite |
12-Jan-2009 09:44
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thanks AK. hope you've had a good capricorn effect. :) let's look forward to Obama and CNY effect. to summarise capland's PVA analysis: 1) Capland generates on average only two proper trade signals a month. 2) Better entry for capland is on a DCA, called on S/R lines. 3) Exit for capland can be called quite accurately on williams 14. Best exit is the morning after a ramp up. 4) capland's ramps are either one or two day ramp up. (Hence one does NOT buy capland on the day after a ramp up). 5) Profile of traders in capland: fast movers, time needed to watch the counter while market is moving. No going for 2 hr meeting if you're playing this counter pls. 6) vol to control capland this time around is about 132mil. Added info not in my blog: foreigners in this counter. ML adores capland, amongst others. And this did NOT come from me. 7) Buy signal for capland likely to be generated this week (my guess is today). Sell signal will be next week/week after. 326 first stop point, real target is 370. Note: watch the rights issue rumors. Happy trading. Caveat applies pls. |
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AK_Francis
Supreme |
12-Jan-2009 09:36
Yells: "Happy go lucky, cheers." |
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Agreed, good tuition lesson for d day. Regards.
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elfinchilde
Elite |
12-Jan-2009 09:33
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"The problem that could happen is that you sell and the stock continues to go up. Then you try to buy back, it falls. You could totally mess up your positions. Maybe for some after they sold, and it continues to go up, and then they hope for it to come down to the price where they sold the stock at but it never happens. Then years later they find the stock is way up in the sky. Market is so volatile that sometimes it is very hard to be precise." The other problem with closing one's eyes is that the stock falls. Eg, if you had bought stocks a year ago at DJIA 14,000. or STI 3,800. Or if you had invested in the NIK for the past 20 years. You'd be down, not up. Also the question: why the obsession with that single stock after you sold it? There are so many others. Messing up one's positions only happens if you did not plan beforehand. It is true though, that for those without technical skills, it's far better to just sit in and consciously DCA longterm in good blue chips, rather than trying to ride in and out. Overtrading dilutes profit. And TA and trading is not for everyone. An interesting and involved read for those who want to know more about TA. I've given a detailed study of capitaland. Beware, it's a long read. Ordinarily though, a techie would make a buy/sell call in 5 min flat, because what i've written out are the analytical processes, which should be in your head and near intuitive. ...and if your eyes glaze over and you can't finish the article, and get impatient and go "Just tell me buy or sell!", then perhaps you're not quite cut out to be a trader. :P http://elfinchilde.blogspot.com/2009/01/pva-study-anatomy-of-capitaland.html |
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Livermore
Master |
12-Jan-2009 07:43
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Sharing from past experience
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moneytalk.sg
Member |
12-Jan-2009 00:51
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That was a great post. I think a lot of us including me spend a lot of time trying to pick the bottom but spend way less time trying to pick a top. I should work on the latter :D
Blogging at moneytalk.sg on the stock market, ETF and anything to do with money.
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iPunter
Supreme |
12-Jan-2009 00:20
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Hahaha... |
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SupremeA
Veteran |
11-Jan-2009 22:39
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Hey elfie, was LTCM simply a poor gamble? They collapsed due to a cash flow problem right? The banks that took over their positions earned big iirc. But anyway, still agree on the major point on risk mgt. Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Taleb is a good book to read for this. |
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Livermore
Master |
11-Jan-2009 22:38
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Actually one of the main points I wish to point out is this. Let's say for some stock you got it about 10- 20c from its low when STI was at 1475. If one is not that good at trading one way is just shut your eyes and open them years later. The problem that could happen is that you sell and the stock continues to go up. Then you try to buy back, it falls. You could totally mess up your positions. Maybe for some after they sold, and it continues to go up, and then they hope for it to come down to the price where they sold the stock at but it never happens. Then years later they find the stock is way up in the sky. Market is so volatile that sometimes it is very hard to be precise. At the end of the day when years later the stock you managed to buy at a good price might have gone all the way to the sky but because you lost track of it, you did not buy it back after you sold. You would then ask yourself would you have made more if you had just bought and held on, considering you got it at a good price
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elfinchilde
Elite |
11-Jan-2009 15:29
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http://elfinchilde.blogspot.com/2009/01/to-be-full-time-trader.html 'ere we go. beware it's a long post, but it consolidates my recent separate posts in SJ on becoming a full time trader. for those interested in this potential occupation only. most important thing is: It's NOT as easy as it sounds/looks. |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
11-Jan-2009 14:09
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don't quite agree, livermore....many successful small trades do add up: it depends on how many lots you buy. 2c profit, if your stock is a 20c stock, that's 10%. if one trades in 100s of lots at one time, it's 2k money each time. ie, the no of lots, and the % profit matters in determining if it's a 'small profit' or a large one. of course, if it's only 2c on a $2 stock, that's kinda silly to be chasing that. but, always waiting for the big one, you may miss everything else along the way. agree however that it only takes one big loss to wipe it all out: which is why risk management/stop loss is very important. most newbies get caught because they fail to stop loss. also: most people overtrade. that's why in the long run, most do better just sitting in longterm, rather than going in and out of the market. since the more entries/exits one makes, the greater the likelihood of error, as impulse becomes stronger the longer you face the market without making a move. that is human nature. it is what needs to be conquered to be successful. bottomline is that it's not easy being a trader. you need discipline above all else; not to trade everyday, and to go in only like a SWAT operation, really. Disciplined, timed strikes, with entry and exit strategies, contingencies all planned out. my estimate for the STI is ~1750 this time around. there's a support abt 1760 or so, with 1800 forming a psych support. cosco being tanked by a big player (foreign name), so folks in it, pls watch out. fyi only; usual caveat applies. not vested in it. |
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Livermore
Master |
09-Jan-2009 16:40
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There is nothing wrong with trading obviously but in my opinion look for major turning points. If you buy stocks and make 10 successful trades with 2c profit each time, it is not going to make you a lot of money. What happens sometimes with some is they make many successful trades but for very small profit, but it takes just one stock when they buy and never cut loss and when the stock drags all the way down and keep dropping, all their many sucessful trades are wiped out. It is the big profit that counts and not the many small successful trades. |
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AK_Francis
Supreme |
08-Jan-2009 23:00
Yells: "Happy go lucky, cheers." |
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If ama syndrome kicks in then spore budget will boost the market further 2 days later. | ||||
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