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POLL - Have the markets bottomed out yet?
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tanglinboy
Elite |
21-Apr-2008 21:55
Yells: "hello!" |
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How come Temasek and GIC have different messages? |
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Farmer
Master |
21-Apr-2008 16:30
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Well that's the old news, this is the latest from GIC......GIC Says Global Recession May Be Worst in 30 Years (Update2) By Yoolim Lee and Liza Lin 
April 21 (Bloomberg) -- Government of Singapore Investment Corp., the sovereign fund that has invested about $18 billion in UBS AG and Citigroup Inc. since December, said the world economy may be headed for its worst recession in three decades. ``We could be facing a recession which is longer, deeper and wider than any recession that we have encountered in the last 30 years,'' Tony Tan, deputy chairman of GIC, as the company is known, said in a speech to more than 500 employees in Singapore today. Tan said GIC, which oversees more than $100 billion, faces its ``most challenging years'' since being founded 27 years ago, as the global supply of credit contracts. His remarks come as the fund considers investing more in UBS, which is reeling from $38 billion of writedowns. The banking industry will probably be the worst affected by a global recession, said Guy de Blonay, a director at New Star Asset Management Ltd. in London, which manages $1.2 billion in financial stocks. ``You cannot rule out the possibility of an operating environment for banks taking a sharp turn for the worse,'' he said. ``Indeed, history suggests that a deep banking crisis is not over until the sector has been subject to broad re- capitalization and management shake-ups.'' The International Monetary Fund this month changed its forecast for global economic growth to 3.7 percent for 2008 from an earlier projection of 4.1 percent. It also said there's a 25 percent chance of a world recession, citing the worst financial crisis in the U.S. since the Great Depression. `Extreme Uncertainty' The reduction was the third by the Washington-based lender since July, when it predicted the world economy would cope with the U.S. credit squeeze and grow 5.2 percent this year. GIC, set up in 1981 as the government's fund manager for Singapore's foreign reserves, has earned an annual average 9.5 percent since its inception, it said two years ago at its 25th anniversary. Tan, 68, told his employees that they're entering a period of ``extreme uncertainty'' in the world economy and global financial markets. ``The next years may well be among the most challenging years for GIC since our establishment,'' Tan said. ``As banks continue to deleverage, cutting down on their lending activities and causing contraction in credit supply, the prospects for the U.S. economy and possibly even the world economy are fraught with considerable downside risks.'' Citigroup, UBS Citigroup, the biggest U.S. bank, and UBS are two of the hardest-hit companies by the collapse of the subprime mortgage market. Citigroup on April 18 posted a $5.11 billion first- quarter loss on almost $16 billion of trading writedowns and increased bad loan reserves, and cut 9,000 jobs. UBS on April 1 said it will seek 15 billion francs ($15 billion) on top of the $13 billion it already raised from GIC and an unidentified Middle Eastern investor. GIC owns rights to acquire stock with 9.5 percent of its voting rights. GIC said this month it will examine the terms of UBS's rights offer before deciding on whether to participate. The dilution to shareholders and those holding UBS's mandatory convertible notes from the rights offer is a ``necessary step,'' GIC said at the time. Tan today defended funding Citigroup and UBS, saying the investment is ``long term'' that will yield returns when markets stabilize. GIC, which doesn't publish financial statements, aims to achieve a rate of return exceeding the average inflation rate in the U.S., Japan and Germany, according to its Web site. Its average rate of return over global inflation was 5.3 percent per annum since 1981, the fund said two years ago. |
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scotty
Senior |
21-Apr-2008 14:20
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(SINGAPORE) Temasek Holdings' fund management
unit says investors have passed 'the point of maximum fear' amid the
global credit squeeze. Fullerton Fund Management sees the US Federal
Reserve's decision to rescue Bear Stearns as a turning point in the
crisis.
'The Fed coming in to facilitate JPMorgan Chase & Co's purchase of Bear Stearns is a watershed event, and most bottoms are found during watershed events,' Fullerton CEO Gerard Lee said in an interview here yesterday. 'From that perspective, we could have already crossed the point of maximum fear.' The Fed stepped in with JPMorgan on March 14 to provide emergency funding to Bear Stearns in the biggest government bailout of a US securities firm. The move is now being probed by the Senate. Before the announcement, Bear Stearns' clients withdrew US$17 billion in two days amid speculation that the firm was running short of cash. Templeton Asset Management's Mark Mobius said he 'generally' agrees with Temasek's assessment that the markets have reached a bottom. 'If we haven't achieved it, we're darn close,' Mr Mobius, who oversees US$47 billion in emerging- market equities, said in a phone interview from Hong Kong yesterday. 'With the kind of liquidity that's pouring into the system, with the Fed, and now the European Central Bank and others putting more money into the system, we think stock prices are not going to remain down. We think there's a good chance of growth going forward.' Some funds are already planning to buy shares in Asia, where stocks have tumbled this year even as economies in China and India continue to grow. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index trades at 14 times estimated earnings, after slumping 13 per cent the past six months as fallout from the US sub-prime crisis spread through Asia, making stocks in the benchmark 36 per cent cheaper than the five-year average. Value Partners Group, Asia's second-largest hedge fund manager, is buying stocks in the region that were battered by the collapse of the US sub-prime mortgage market, chief investment officer Cheah Cheng Hye said this week. The Hong Kong-based asset manager aims to start a new fund in the second quarter to invest in Greater China property stocks, Mr Cheah said. Funds such as Clariden Leu AG, which manages US$300 million, said the recovery from the US housing crisis may take 1-2 years. 'What we have seen in the last couple of weeks culminating in the rescue of Bear Stearns by the Fed and a further pump of liquidity in the market may somewhat signal an inflexion point in the crisis - but this bottoming-out phase, we reckon, will take a long time,' Michael Foo, head of Asian portfolio management at Clariden, said in an interview yesterday. Fullerton, which oversees US$2.5 billion of third- party money, is still bullish on prospects in Asia, where it has most of its assets. It said the goal to manage US$3 billion excluding Temasek's funds by mid-year is achievable. Temasek manages a portfolio worth more than US$100 billion. 'The fundamental reasons for this secular growth are all in place,' Mr Lee said. 'The few of the big economies are found in Asia. I'm talking about China, India, Vietnam and South Korea. So Asia, being a destination for investment money from the developed world, will continue to grow.' Fullerton's main customers are wealthy individuals in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and institutions in Singapore, where it became a separate unit of Temasek in 2003. It aims to expand in the US, Europe, Australia and the Middle East. -- Bloomberg |
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Newbie2007
Member |
20-Apr-2008 22:54
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Remember to trade with care. Make your own judgement. Look at Jesse Livermore. He is a very good example of someone who had listened to his friend and made a loss. |
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Hulumas
Supreme |
20-Apr-2008 21:36
Yells: "INVEST but not TRADE please!" |
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Ya |
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stupidfool
Senior |
20-Apr-2008 13:04
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Hope u r right scotty |
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scotty
Senior |
20-Apr-2008 10:24
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I say yes! Most of the bad news are out and those that are out were within expectations. Markets should start improving from now on. Key economic index reboundsConference Board's index of leading economic indicators rises 0.1% after five months of decline.A private business groups says that its index of leading economic indicators rose Friday, reversing five months of decline. The New York-based Conference Board says its forecast of future economic activity rose 0.1% in March, less than the 0.2% increase expected by Wall Street economists. That compares to a 0.3% decline in February. The index is designed to forecast economic activity in the next three to six months based on 10 economic components, including stock prices, building permits and initial claims for unemployment benefits.  |
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