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Consolidated Jan outlook thread
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stevento
Senior |
06-Jan-2008 18:58
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This is a very volatile trading year. I am stuck between a rock and hard place. On 1 hand we have the US Sub prime and Financial issues in the US. Jobs data is weak, unemployment is up. The US may go into recession. High inflation in China 6.5%, High commodity prices. Yet, the amount of cash floating in the world is tremendous. Eg: Saudi Arabia sitting on a cash pile of US$30 billions per month, almost US$360 billions from the oil money. China, 1 trillion, Spore US$200 billions, not excluding Norway, Russia. This has created a situation where do all these money get invested. Looking at the high oil & gold prices, the extra cash will be spent in properties, stocks, companies acquisitions in 2008. A move away from US dollars to EURO, Canadian, Aust, and Chinese YUan. |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
06-Jan-2008 18:38
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hm..just some more info: why i say everything depends on the dow: remember that what moves a stock market is the global flow of money. yea, ours is the sti, but it is not the only market in the world. and unlike china, we're not protected from global money--ie, that is why we will always be more volatile than say, KLCI or shanghai, which are relatively closed markets. volatility is the price we pay for allowing foreign funds play our market. so if fund managers are losing money in US and europe, then, they need to dress up their portfolios; to stem the losses arising from other regions. Asia is the only market still sitting on profits for the year. Hence, if managers draw out their money, it is likely to be from Asia. At this point in time, i do not honestly believe china and emerging markets will be able to pick up the slack when there is a Western selling off. and they do not always have to put their money into stocks. it can be held in cash; or where the boom currently is: commodities. Remember too that for every seller, there has to be a buyer. So when the BBs want to sell, what do they do? call for a bull market, have bullish analysts reports (guess why cosco chionged up suddenly), and when retailers and inexperienced funds (likely the new asian funds--there have been reports of shanghai fund managers not knowing what to do) rush to buy, they dump. it was the MNC banks like merril lynch and morgan stanley which had been selling off asian equities; to shore up their subprime losses (US has some ruling where banks have to have a certain % liquidity before they are allowed to continue ops). not coincidentally, these were also the banks calling for a bull run, that the run in asia isn't over, blah blah blah. goldman sachs escaped relatively unscathed: ever noticed that their calls have been in contradiction to merril lynch and MS? all i'm saying is, be careful of what you read; trust the charts and trend above all. do what they do, not what they say. note: the above is just my personal opinion. caveat emptor. |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
06-Jan-2008 18:23
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heylo eldarchen, everything basically depends on the dow now. 12750 is the level to watch. for yzj, the techs are really weak. support is at 1.85, resistance at 2. needs to definitively break 2 on increasing buy volume for chance of further upside. be very careful because a definitive break below 1.85 may signal a new range between 1.51-1.8. this is a trader's counter however. so who knows... signs do not look good tho. lesser and lesser bb in this baby. if the rebound when williams hits -100 oversold (likely tmrw) does not surpass 2.05 (this week), that's actually a signal to cut. cos it means failed to break the higher high. (hence likely to try lower low in coming weeks) cheers! those not in market yet, sit out and wait! sti ~3293 is the genuine support level for this period of time. first support at 3350. see which it pings off and act accordingly. chance to build up a good blues portfolio for years to come. :) |
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Eldarchen
Member |
05-Jan-2008 21:43
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Haha thanks for sharing elfie, but what's your personal take on yzj for this week? charting wise, it's kinda weak but I gotta a feeling bb are consolidating at 1.86-1.90 level to capitalise on the FTSE index on thursday, they'll rush it up from tues onwards to 2.00 + , followed by breaking the short term resistance to 2.07+ on wed, thursday push it to 2.16 + to force fund house and insti to buy up to 2.30 or so. It may be my wishful thinking but I hope its how it pans out. Cause formally BCOM.HK also did something similar to it. o well just my 2 cents, don't take my word for it |
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simck001
Senior |
05-Jan-2008 16:38
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Elfie, thanks for sharing. 
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elfinchilde
Elite |
05-Jan-2008 14:25
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hey simck001, just a bit of fyi sharing since you're a newbie--pls do NOT take the following as gospel truth; rem that what i'm expressing is just an opinion, and i may not necessarily be right. heaven knows i've been often wrong. haha. But since you appear to be more towards a technical bias: stocks which i'm watching for this year: (note, not entered all yet; it depends on trend. in fact i'm mostly in cash and gold right now) Sit-and-hold investments: babcock and brown, singpost, ascott, FJBen, gold. FA/long trend TA plays (defined as ~3 weeks to 2 mth holding period): kep corp, kim eng, ocbc, sci, sgx, spc. short scalps (<3 weeks holding): cosco, yzj, yanlord. two other counters which i haven't quite decided where to place: likely somewhere between long TA and short TA, i'll let the trend decide the play: raffles edu and golden agri. may add in first resources. it's an either/or with golden agri. they are all stocks which respond to techs, although different indicators. apart from these, puts and calls when markets are volatile. So there ya have it, 16 elfin stocks for the year 2008. of course, if better things come up, i'm fluid. but roughly, this is what i'm focusing on. just fyi only. cheers! 
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elfinchilde
Elite |
05-Jan-2008 14:10
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elfie bought sti 3300 put warrants yest. 'nuff said. dow's critical level is, as eldarchen pointed out, at 12,800. if we break this, it's freefall to 12,200, wiping out the gains from the year and hence making it officially a bear market. however, we've pinged off the level twice/thrice tho; the STI equivalent is the aug 17 drop, then sept and nov drops. So there's some hope yet. For mth of jan, we're either range-bound or down. Depends on the breaking of the support level. market is actually undecided. STI 2,800 is the lowest end of the range. We're currently range-bound, actually. since nov already. Between 3,300 to 3,500; the blues at the prices between these range (which was why i had earlier called the range for SGX at 12.10-13.50). Wider sti range would be 3,200-3,500. I'd put 3,150- 3,450 for mth of jan, barring a dow break below 12,750. Intraday volatility has been increasing. May be heralding the change of a direction soon. Long term investors may do better by sitting out the current volatility, and waiting for a crash induced by margin calls and panicked selling to buy in good stocks. |
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simck001
Senior |
05-Jan-2008 10:47
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That is a good idea! However, it is too chim for me. As a 3 mth newbies, I am still looking at the local market. I have given up on predicting. I would just follow the STI trend and watch how U experienced ones do the predictions. |
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Eldarchen
Member |
05-Jan-2008 10:13
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Rather than have 24 daily threads, I've taken the liberty to consolidate it into 1 single thread for u guys to rant and predict all you want. I'll start the Ball rolling Jan 2008 Week 2 (7-11) Monday will open lower with futures opening low as well, Japan and HK expected to dip. Afternoon will recover some losses but still negative, futures will be flat or slightly up due to bush and fed coming in on friday. 3 times DJ held at 12750-12800 , let's hope it continues, if it breaks this level its gg for the week. If its the comp trading in US, its likely to cover at this point. Mid-End week we'll have a new FTSE Sti so it'll be interesting to see how it goes. hehe I'll buy on Monday dip and see how it pans out. I'm pretty sure the hedge/insti are waiting for the new STI to buy. I bought too early also on Fri though predicted that it would hold at 12,800 , sianz .... oh well, anyone wanna give it a shot ? |
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