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M1 - Great Defensive Stock Post Reply Rate topic
zhuge_liang Supreme	20-Jun-2008 13:30        zhuge_liang About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Macquarie cuts MobileOne target price to $1.90 from $2.27; maintains Neutral rating. Broker says target price cut driven by earning revisions; lowers FY08-FY10 net profit forecasts by 7%-16% to reflect lower revenues due to increased competition, expected margin deterioration. Says revenue has peaked, tips reversal in post-paid average revenue per user trend, while pre-paid market hit by SingTel's aggressive price action. But adds, low risk dividend stream should help to underpin share price.
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simck001 Senior	18-Mar-2008 19:45        simck001 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Bear or no bear at this counter?
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ghlau935 Veteran	25-Feb-2008 19:25        ghlau935 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	DJ MARKET TALK: JPMorgan Ups MobileOne To Neutral; S$2.05 Target   0001 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: JPMorgan upgrades MobileOne (B2F.SG) to Neutral from Underweight; maintains target price of S$2.05. Says valuation attractive; strategic risks priced in; "we believe M1's share price already reflects the potential negative impact of mobile number portability." Adds, dividend yield at top-end of regional telco peer group, shares have limited downside at current level, may outperform if company announces capital management moves such as cash return in 2H08. Shares closed flat at S$1.99 Friday. (KIG)
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simck001 Senior	20-Jan-2008 21:31        simck001 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	With reference to my post on 4th Jan. The money received was not dividend. It was from capital reduction. Was it good or bad for the business? How would capital reduction affect the share price? Thanks.
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ace6868 Member	14-Jan-2008 17:25        ace6868 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	After many days of going down, suddenly seems to have started to pick up... or is it riding on the coat tails of Singtel?
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singaporegal Supreme	10-Jan-2008 21:47        singaporegal About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Technical   Mood: Yells: "Female TA nut"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Anyone know when the IPhone will be sold by the telcos?  I'm looking to change my mobile phone... and the IPhone is sooooo cooollll!!
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ViperSTI Member	09-Jan-2008 23:07        ViperSTI About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Anyone knows what happen to M1? It dropped more than 5% today to 1.750.
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Pension Elite	04-Jan-2008 20:01        Pension About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	starhub and singtel both oso defensive stock. singtel is about volatile and if you know how to play this stock, u can make some money.
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simck001 Senior	04-Jan-2008 19:51        simck001 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Hi, Got the M1 shares in September last year. Just saw my account statement that given dividend of $414.  Is it good or bad dividend?  Tks.
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doshur Member	05-Nov-2007 16:54        doshur About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	i bought this counter 2 day chart looks good to me... any advise?
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Pinnacle Master	28-Oct-2007 21:21        Pinnacle About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	leechongpeng. I have not start to look into SMRT yet because too many counters to look at. But can look into it though.
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leechongpeng Senior	28-Oct-2007 18:27        leechongpeng About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Pinnacle. Defective stocks like M1 and SMRT will pay good  dividend. SMRT 3 quarter earning gain at 30% whereas M1 3 quarter earning gain at more 10%. Why didn't you recomened SMRT? In view of rising oil price SMRT still make money. If telecom sector is better why not Singtel instead of M1.
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Pinnacle Master	23-Oct-2007 22:09        Pinnacle About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	In any market situation, its always recommended to have spread the risk factors and diversified your investment. Its in the old saying, "not to put all eggs in one basket". In fact, I have around 15% of my shares in REITs and dividend play.
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jasonongsc Senior	23-Oct-2007 22:02        jasonongsc About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	hmm i still like reits better :)
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Kelvinbh Member	23-Oct-2007 20:45        Kelvinbh About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	In this type of market, good dividend pay out  will be the best for all. Save heaven.  :-)
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Pinnacle Master	23-Oct-2007 11:58        Pinnacle About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	CITI - Buy: 3Q Results In-Line: Good Value, Leading Yield Buy/Low Risk 1L Price (22 Oct 07) S$2.06 Target price S$2.45 Expected share price return 18.9% Expected dividend yield 7.3% Expected total return 26.2% Market Cap S$1,841M US$1,258M  In-Line 3Q ? we are buyers. S$43.6m (+1.6%yoy) in profit, EBITDA of S$85.8m (+1.8%yoy) in line. M1 targets single-digit profit growth for the year (CIR ? 5.6%). Value proposition (11x P/E) and high yield (we see 11%) keeps us Buy.  Solid 7.7% wireless sales growth. YoY revenue growth highest since quarterly data available (1Q02). In M1?s case, this is driven by higher voice and data usage in contract subs (ARPU up 3.7% yoy, MoU/sub/month up 4.2% yoy) and wireless broadband data cards take-up (60K as of Sep vs. 42K in June).  Backhaul network rollout bodes positive for mid-term margins. Rising backhaul costs on higher data usage drive this initiative ? leased line costs at 5.6% of sales for 9M07, up 39%yoy. Rollout to commence in 4Q, cost savings late ?08E onwards. No specific numbers indicated at this stage, but M1 sees payback period of less than two years and overall capex/sales still staying around 10%.  Other takeaways. (1) ?07 capex guidance down to S$70m (earlier S$100m). (2) Prepaid revenues up modestly QoQ but down YoY ? still struggling for traction.  Dividend champion, 11% prospective yield ? 4.5c/share due Dec. We estimate 17.9c/share with YE (Dec) results (including 10 cents as special DPS).  Consistent buyer in KT&T. KT&T has consistently raised its stake (19.9% now). SPH/KTT?s combined stake (34%) higher than TM?s 29.7%. Do the two plan to offload the cumulative stakes? Diverse M&A theories sustain M&A appetite.
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Pinnacle Master	23-Oct-2007 10:46        Pinnacle About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	DBS Vickers - Flat earnings comes as no surprise Hold S$2.06 Price Target : S$ 2.30 Net profit of S$43.6m was up 1.6% y-o-y and in line with our expectations of S$44m. Overall mobile market share and ARPU were stable. There was a slight increase in post-paid and decrease in pre-paid market share. M1 wireless broadband service subscriber base continued to grow while ARPU declined. Overall, service EBITDA margin at 46.7% is lower than 50.7% last year due to significant increase in traffic costs and marketing expenses. Capex guidance for FY07 is lowered to S$70m from S$70-100m range.
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Pinnacle Master	23-Oct-2007 10:13        Pinnacle About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Phillip Securities - HOLD Net profit rise slightly in Q3. For Q3 FY07, M1 reported revenue of S$200.2m (+5.8% yoy) and net profit of S$43.6m (+1.6% yoy). The increase in revenue was due to service revenue growth as the customer base increased by 221,000 on a yoy basis to 1,467,000. The minor increase in net profit was due to higher operating costs, which increased to S$144.0m (+8.0% yoy). All the operating expenses, including costs of sales, staff costs, advertising and promotion, depreciation and amorisation, provision for debts and administrative expenses, rose in Q3. On a nine-month basis, revenue of S$596.4m was still 4.3% better yoy while the nine-month net profit of S$133.9m was 7.3% higher yoy. Outlook for FY07. M1 estimated a single digit growth in profit after tax for FY07 barring unforeseen circumstances. It would also maintain the total cash distribution for FY07 equivalent to at least 80% of net profit after tax. For its business, it would continue to increase usage of services through various innovations and seek new opportunities for growth. Moreover, it would focus on improving cost efficiency and commence the construction of cellular backhaul network in Q4 FY07. Maintain Hold with fair value at S$2.38. We expect FY07 net profit to increase by 9% yoy and FY08 net profit to gain by 5% yoy. The customer base and resulting revenue were likely to improve as the Singapore economy was expected to grow in 2007 and 2008. There would also be demand from new customers as the government continues to attract foreign investors and immigrants. M1 remains a HOLD as growth in revenues and profits is likely to be limited due to its focus on the domestic market.
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Pinnacle Master	23-Oct-2007 10:06        Pinnacle About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	KIM ENG - A Worthy Dividend Play �� Higher revenue but lower profitability M1 reported 9M07 net profit of $133.9m (+7.3% yoy). Net earnings were buoyed by $12.9m arising from the reduction in tax rate in 1Q07. Adjusting for this positive bias, net income would have been $121m (-3% yoy). EBITDA, a better indicator of operating performance, fell 2.1% yoy to $244.1m. This was because EBITDA margin (on service revenue) declined from 49% to 45.2% which offset a 6% increase in service revenue to $540m. Management continues to guide for single-digit growth in profit after tax for the year. �� M1 Broadband leads the way The increase in service revenue was driven largely by Postpaid Mobile and to a smaller extent by International Call Services, while Prepaid Mobile declined slightly by 3.2%. �� Postpaid Mobile - we believe the positive showing is largely due to a increase in the customer base (driven mainly by M1 Broadband) and a smaller degree from the increase in ARPU arising from the increasing usage of data services. As at Sep 07, there are about 60,000 M1 Broadband subscribers. �� International Call Services ? increased IDD promotions led to higher international retail traffic which offset a lower effective tariff. �� Prepaid Mobile ? the increase in subscriber base was offset by lower tariffs as all operators reduced tariffs in FY07. �� Rising to the challenge From FY07-09, we expect revenue growth to slow from the current 6% in view of the increasingly saturated mobile market (at 110.7% penetration rate currently) and assuming increased competition from the wireless broadband offerings of SingTel and StarHub, and an increase in subscriber churn with the introduction of True Mobile Number Portability (MNP) in FY08. On the bright side, M1 will commence construction of its own cellular backhaul network in 4Q07. The network could reduce M1?s lease circuit costs from FY09 and enable it to introduce higher-speed wireless broadband services, thus improving margins and revenue. �� Still a worthy dividend play For FY07, management aims to return at least 80% of full-year net profit after tax to shareholders. An interim DPS of 2.5cts has already been paid out, while a proposed capital reduction (without share cancellation) to distribute 4.6cts per share is pending shareholders? approval at an EGM tomorrow. Our target price of $2.64 is derived from an estimated FY08 cash return per share of 14.5cts (implied yield of 5.5%). Maintain BUY.
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Pinnacle Master	23-Oct-2007 09:40        Pinnacle About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	CIMB - MobileOne (S$2.06) - 3QFY07 results - Margin pressure in the horizon In line. 3Q07 earnings of S$43.6m (+1.6% yoy) were 3% below our estimate but 6% above consensus. While there was little surprise in the results, key highlights were: 1) increased competition in prepaid and data plans; 2) cost pressure from higher call and data traffic; 3) capex guidance of S$70m, down from S$100m. Data plan and prepaid ARPU declined. Topline of S$200.2m (+5.8% yoy) was primarily driven by subscriber growth. ARPU actually declined for data plans (- 21.3% yoy to S$31.70) and the prepaid segment (-12.6% yoy to S$15.90). We believe data plans are facing increased competition from StarHub which launched its HSDPA offering island-wide in 2Q07 while prepaid has to deal with sustained aggression from SingTel. Postpaid ARPU rose (+3.7% yoy to S$61.80) as more customers signed up for mid-tier plans. Rising margin pressure to persist into 4Q07. 3Q service EBITDA margin declined 340bp yoy to 46.6% on higher traffic expenses (+60.3% yoy) and leased circuit costs (+19.1% yoy). We do not expect these cost pressures to let up in 4Q07 as M1 faces increased competition from SingTel (prepaid) and StarHub (mobile broadband). We also expect A&P expenses to rise as we enter the year-end festive season and the run-up to mobile number portability. Capex guided lower to S$70m. This implies S$44m will be spent in 4Q07 when the construction of the cellular backhaul network commences. The backhaul project is estimated to cost S$40m-60m and should provide some relief to leased circuit-cost pressure, especially from FY10. Maintain Neutral with an unchanged target price of S$2.40. Our target price remains based on DCF valuation (WACC 7.9%, terminal growth 1%). Our FY07 earnings estimate has been reduced by 8% to reflect higher tax assumptions (18%, based on guidance) and a 50bp reduction in our FY07 EBITDA margin estimate. While M1 remains vulnerable to competition from SingTel and StarHub, we believe downside risk should be limited by forward yields of over 9%.
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