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The Edge - Brokers' Digest (Sep 24 - Sep 30,2007) Post Reply Rate topic
go_francis Senior	23-Sep-2007 20:15        go_francis About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Think the Investing Ideas page is also VERY USEFUL... a) Global Testing Quote: " ...there might be more investors piling in soon.... Lim & Tan, DBS Vickers & UOB KH all hv "Buy" recommendations on the stock. DBS Vickers' xxx the most bullish with a 12 mth target of 40cts  " b) Soilbuild Quote: " In the meantime, the imminent jump in Soilbuild's earnings is likely to lift its shares strongly. Since the beginning of the year, the stock has climbed 98% to $1.31 last week. SIAS & UOB KH hv target prices of $1.80 & $1.85... "
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decarn Member	23-Sep-2007 13:19        decarn About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Allco Commercial REIT (Sept 20: $1.10) TP: $1.68 MAINTAIN BUY. Allco announced three yield-accretive acquisitions of an additional three properties in Japan, which will result in an exposure of 43% Singapore properties, 42% Australia properties and 16% Japan properties. We have a forecast payout of 5.94 cents for FY2007 and 7.42 cents for F&2008, which translate into 5.76% and 7.2% yields respectively. The increased exposure in the world's second-largest economy improves the diversification and reduces the reliance on any single market. We maintain our view that Allco is attractively priced, offering the highest yield of 5.76% among office real estate investment trusts and is poised to benefit from the rising office rental trend. We retain our fair value estimate of $1.68. - Phillip Securities Research (Sept 19) Ascendas India Trust (Sept 20: $1.49) TP: $1.83 BUY (initiating coverage). Ascendas India Trust (a-iTrust) is a provider of business space solutions and offers investors a unique opportunity to participate in the burgeoning Indian real estate market. Based on DDM valuation, we arrive at a target price of $1.83 assuming: (i) pipeline of two buildings *(total super built area: 530,000 sq ft) at The CyberBale from the sponsor; (ii) pipeline from Ascendas India Development Trusts (worth about $250 million); (iii) "in-built" pipeline of two completing developments and three proposed ones; and (iv) full utilization of the 20% cap on property development activities on a-iTrust's 24 acres of development land. - DBS Vickers Securities (Sept 14) CDW Holding (Sept 20: 13 cents) TP: 12 cents SELL. In the six months to June 30, sales increased 13.5% to US$86 million ($129 million) and gross profit rose 36.4% to US$15.04 million. This was mainly attributed to the 4% increase in revenue within the LCD back-light units segment. CDW's distribution and administrative expenses increased in the same period. Net profit fell 86.7% to US$490,000, owing to a high defective rate in production. Based on our revised earnings estimate, the stock is trading at a forward PER of 20.4x earnings, way above the counter's historical PER trading band of 6x. Target price is maintained at 12 cents based on FY2008 earnings forecast. - SIAS Research (Sept 18) Chemoil (Sept 20: 48 US cents) TP: 55 US cents DOWNGRADE TO NEUTRAL. Because of volatile market conditions in July and August, Chemoil used crude oil derivatives to hedge its fuel oil inventory, as they offer better liquidity than fuel oil derivatives. However, markets behaved erratically, prices did not move in favor of its strategy, and margins were affected. In August, Chemoil reported weak 2Q2007 results because of operational problems in Singapore. We lower 2007E and 2008E net profit 40% to US$35 million and 21% to US$70 million, respectively. We lower our DCF-based price target from 91 US cents to 55 US cents. Our 12-month price target is based on a 9.2% discount rate and 2% terminal growth. The stock now trades at just 9x 2008E earnings. - UBS Investment Research (Sept 20) DBS Group Holdings (Sept 20: $20.40) TP: $27 MAINTAIN OUTPERFORM. DBS announced that it would launch its first ever $400 million share buyback programme. The amount equates to 1.3% of its current market capitalization and 26 basis points of tier-1 capital. Despite a nice rebound last week, DBS is still down 11% year-to-date, the worst performing bank this year. Valuations are attractive at 1.56x CY2007 P/BV and 11x CY2008 PER. Concerns with DBS have already been reflected in its share price, especially as liquidity concerns should abate with time after the US Federal Reserve rate cuts. Current valuations are very attractive and the latest share buyback programme announcement represents a vote of confidence from the management as well. Target price is unchanged at $27, based on 2.1x CY2007 P/BV. - CIMB-GK Research (Sept 20) Mapletree Logistics Trust (Sept 20: $1.17) TP: $1.46 MAINTAIN BUY. MLT has continues to grow its portfolio, recently announcing the acquisition of five warehouse properties in Singapore for a total consideration of $47.2 million. MLT has a visible pipeline from the sponsor and we continue to like MLT for its pan-Asian platform, which provides the opportunities to tap growth in the countries it has presence in and also to tap new markets it is exploring, such as Vietnam, South Korea, India, Thailand and Taiwan. With the recent weakness in the stock price, MLT is trading at an attractive current yield of 5.1%. Target price is $1.46 based on DCF valuation (assumed acquisitions of $1 billion a year from 2007 to 2009). - DBS Vickers Securities (Sept 19) See Hup Seng (Sept 20: 84 cents) TP: $1.23 MAINTAIN BUY. SHS's expansion plans are on track. As Keppel's preferred tank-coating contractor, SHS is a direct beneficiary of Keppel's higher volume of work for conversion of FPSO (floating production, storage and offloading) vessels and ship repair jobs that require tank coating. A new auto-blast factory is expected to be operational in 1Q2008, raising total plant capacity between 70% and 80% to meet strong demand from the marine and construction industries. It has invested in 10 new dehumidifiers to expand its tank-coating capacity and has also tied up with a second-tier shipyard to undertake tank-coating and site-blasting jobs. Target price is $1.23 based on 18x FY2008 earnings. - DBS Vickers Securities (Sept 17) FJ Benjamin Holdings (Sept 20: 85 cents) TP: $1.03 MAINTAIN BUY. FJB announced the listing of its associate St James Power Station (SJPS) through a reverse takeover. The consideration of the RTO could range between $80 million and $108 million, depending on SJPS's ability to meet its cumulative net profit guarantee of $16 million for FY2008 and FY2009, with a performance incentive of 68.4 million shares at 17.55 cents each, if cumulative net profit is above $18 million. The RTO is targeted for completion by 1Q2008. FJB's 30.4% stake is valued between $24.3 million and $32.8 million, depending on the financial performance of SJPS. After the listing, FJB's stake will be reduced to 25.2%, with potential for further dilution upon a subsequent placement. Target price is $1.03. - DMG & Partners (Sept 17) Orchard Parade Holdings (Sept 20: $2.08) TP: $3.31 BUY (initiating coverage). OPH is one of two Singapore listed entities that come under Singapore's largest real estate player Far East Organization (FE)). OPH's key assets include two hotels - the Orchard Parade Hotel and the Albert Court Hotel - and Central Square, a mixed development. OPH also owns about 50% of Yep Hiap Seng Ltd. Our recent meeting with FEO's chief operating officer Tjong Yik Min boosted our confidence that OPH is heading in the right direction for growth. With tourism in Singapore set to grow further and YHS being a household brand name, we think OPH is an enticing value proposition. Target price is $3.31 based on parity to RNAV. - Kim Eng Research (Sept 18) Sino Techfibre (Sept 20: $1.23) TP: $2.02 MAINTAIN OUTPERFORM. In a recent conversation with management, we gahter that there would be some delay in the delivery of pattern moulding paper (PMP) equipment from its US supplier. This erases any hopes of PMP contributions this year. Backing out PMP earnings reduces our FY2007 EPS estimate by 5% but this is offset by higher contributions from mainstay leather products, following management's bullish output guidance. We have reduced our DCF (12% WACC, 2% terminal growth) target price from $2.13 to $2.02, largely on more aggressive capital expenditure assumptions for FY2008 to FY2009. The stock trades at 8.5x CY2008 PER, comparable to peers. Our target implies 12.9x CY2008 PER. - CIMB-GK Research (Sept 14) Genting Int'l Public Ltd Co (Sept 20: 63.5 cents) TP: 76 cents UPGRADE TO BUY. The investment case for GIL remains on its ability to win more casino concessions. The UK mega license has been put on hold indefinitely, but the award of smaller casino licenses remains on track. Furthermore, gaming liberalization in Asean and Japan is likely to accelerate, especially after the success of Singapore and Macau in attracting foreign investments. This means GIL has the potential to enter new markets. However, GIL has suffered the double whammy of higher construction and equity costs. This in turn has had a negative effect on our valuation. We have thus revised down our fair value on GIL from 86 cents a share to 76 cents. - OCBC Investment Research (Sept 20) Pacific Andes (Holdings) (Sept 20: 74.5 cents) TP: $1.06 OUTPERFORM (initiating coverage). China's annual fish production is expected to rise by 24.3 million tonnes to meet demand, with supply likely to come from aquaculture, imports and fishing in international waters. Strong demand in China bodes well for PAH, as China accounts for 83.5% and 76.1% of its revenue in FY2006 and FY2007 respectively. We project a CY2006 to CY2009 EPS CAGR of 26.8%, powered by its increased sake in China Fishery. We expect a steady improvement in net margins to 9.9% in FY2010 from 7.3% in FY2007. We forecast a dividend yield of 3.3% for FY2008. Our sum-of-parts valuation implies a target price of $1.06, which translates into 12x CY2008 PER. - CIMB-GK Research (Sept 19) Sinwa (Sept 20: 68.5 cents) TP: 82 cents BUY (initiating coverage). Sinwa is Asia-Pacific's leading marine supply and logistics company servicing the marine and offshore industry. Sinwa offers a complete and comprehensive range of reliable supply and service to the marine and offshore industry in Singapore, China, the Middle East, Timor Leste and Australia. Since last year, Sinwa has taken full advantage of the bullish offshore marine industry. In July, it entered into joint ventures with KS Energy and Nordic International for a jack-up barge and 2D seismic vessel respectively. The group's revenue has been increasing steadily, with two-thirds of its revenue contribution form the Singapore market. Our fair value estimate of 82 cents implies a 22.38% potential upside. - Phillips Securities Research (Sept 18) Koda (Sept 20: 81.5 cents) TP: $1.34 MAINTAIN BUY. Koda's FY2007 results was in line with expectations, with revenue up 24.8% y-o-y to US$60.1 million and NPAT up 63.9% y-o-y to US$60.1 million and NPAT up 63.9% y-o-y to US$7.8 million. The results came on the back of improved margins, owing to a larger share of higher-value products, increased order flows through Koda's participation in furniture fairs and higher flow of repeat orders from clients. Gross and pre-tax margins improved to 29% and 13.3% respectively. Owing to operational efficiencies at the Vietnam plant and lower finance costs as the company used its strong cash flow to pare down a third of its borrowings, the gearing ratio fell to 0.12x from 0.27x in FY2006. We have revised our FY2008 revenue and NPAT estimates to US$83 million and US$10 million respectively. Target price is $1.34. - Kim Eng Research (Sept 20) Parkway Life REIT (Sept 20: $1.21) TP: $1.72 BUY (initiating coverage). Parkway Life REIT invests in income-producing real estate assets in Asia-Pacific. The annual rental payable by the three hospitals (Mount Elizabeth, Gleneagels, East Shore) comprises a base rent and a variable rent. The variable rent is equivalent to 3.8% of adjusted hospital revenue. This allows unitholders to ride on the growth of the healthcare industy, wing due to an ageing population, medical tourism and growing affluence in Singapore and across the region. Acquisitions in Singapore and the region will provide catalysts for growth in distribution yield. our target price is $1.72 based on the discounted dividend mode (WACC: 6.2%, terminal growth: 2%). - UOB Kay Hian (Sept 17) Tat Hong Holdings (Sept 20: $2.14) TP: $2.34 BUY (resuming coverage). Revenue rose 28% y-o-y to $138.1 million and net profit surged 66% to $17.3 million. Management also reiterated that its net operating profit CAGR of 25% for FY2008 to FY2010 is on track. Its subsidiary Tutt Bryant Group contributed revenue of AS$71.0 million ($90.2 million) and net profit of AS$5.1 million in 1Q2008. Prospects remain good for THH, buoyed by continual infrastructure spending and construction jobs in the region. The easy re-deployment of cranes, especially with the present shortage of heavy equipment, is working in THH's favour. Fair value estimate of $2.34 based on 16x (industry average) FY2009 forecasted earnings. - OCBC Investment Research (Sept 17) MacarthurCook Industrial REIT (Sept 20: $1.19) TP: $1.39 BUY (initiating coverage). MIREIT's initial property portfolio consists of a diversified portfolio of 12 industrial properties in Singapore. MIREIT's investment objective is to pursue acquisition opportunities locally as well as across Asia. MIREIT's current gearing stands at 8.6%, the lowest among local REITs. The counter is trading at a discount of 15% to our fair value. With a projected FY2008 DPU of 7.43 cents, MIREIT offers a yield of 6.35%. We expect the manager to announced further acquisitions in the coming months in anticipation of its target of $500 million of acquisitions a year. Twelve-month fair value of $1.39 a share. - Phillip Securities Research (Sept 17) Santak Holdings (Sept 20: 29.5 cents) TP: 28 cents MAINTAIN SELL. Santak reported disappointing FY2007 results, with net profit declining 23% to $3.7 million and revenue falling 29% to $62.3 million. Precision engineering and assembly division revenue fell 28% to $57.3 million, owing to a slowdown in demand for assembled products and precision-machined components - mainly from a telecommunication client based in China. Trading and distribution division also dropped $3.3 million to $5.1 million, owing to weaker demand for access control and telecommunication products. Combined with higher marketing expenses and the loss of factory utilization, Santak's operating profit fell 18% to $4.7 million. With limited visibiltiy and in the absence of strong catalysts, we peg Santak's fair value at 28 cents based on 1x P/BV. - Kim Eng Research (Sept 18) Techcomp Holdings (Sept 20: 61 cents) TP: $1 MAINTAIN BUY. Consumable products for gas chromatography business unit expected to yield 50% to 80% gross profit margin. The recent lead contamination issue in China made toys is expected to benefit Techcomp's sales from tis atomic absorption equipment, which is used to quantify the lead content in paint. Its extensive network in China attracts more exclusive distributorship agreements from global suppliers. At 12.9x PER, its current valuation is attractive, compared with the average of 25x PER for its peers. We like Techcomp for its "recession-proof" business model and good earnings visibility. We have raised our earnings estimate for FY2008 to incorporate earnings from its high-profit margin capillary columns. Target price is revised to $1, pegged at 13x PER on blended FY2007/08's earnings. - Westcomb Securities (Sept 20) Copyright Disclaimer Read More...
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