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NATIONAL DAY RALLY
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jm2212
Senior |
02-Aug-2007 17:59
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the sell down of stock market (if prolong) will affect the booming property market soon. when bank always tell me about diversification of portfolio, my reply is that my unit trust, property and other investments are all affected when the sell down is across the world. already loss 20% of my holding over the last few days, now i probably will not want to go for the soft launch of the new condo by Chip Eng Seng tomorrow (all agents had collected blank cheques few weeks ago), better not to over commit and keep some cash for rainy days. |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
02-Aug-2007 13:44
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hullo myehub! mid 08 refers to mid 2008: ie, post beijing olympics. pls note tho that all of what i said are just my opinion; i'm not trained in finance, or economics. so i might very well be wrong. and well, if i'm wrong, i'd just say so and realign portfolio accordingly. ain't pretending to be expert or whatever. I guess at the end, the market is not about theories, or speculations, or who's right and who's wrong in 'predictions'. cos no one can ever fully predict the market. so yea. as ipunter/manikamaniko says, follow the trend. no need for pride and posturing, or arguing TA vs FA, or 'my method's the best!'. quite silly cos there's no best method. the market's the dictator and final arbitrator: any match you play will be a one-on-one: you vs the market. and that's the reality. zero sum game. so always be prepared to run. the one thing you can definitely expect tho: volatility. higher highs, lower lows. so be prepared to ride it out. sti is dropping a little too much for my liking. sigh. ok, ostrich mode time! *elf goes into hiding* cheers to all. :) |
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myehub
Member |
02-Aug-2007 12:21
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Hi elfinchilde, great sharing! btw, mid 08 refers to mid Aug'07 or mid 2008? tks |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
02-Aug-2007 11:17
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hullo noobie, (hey, i like your nick! noobie noobie!!! oop yet another bimbo moment. keke)... fundamental-wise, most companies started turning around after the sars period (2003), so give abt 6 mths for recovery, means about mid 2003 the best companies started turning around. tech-wise, the actual recovery--time lag from FA since market needs to factor in the results (half year results, rem) plus recover sentiment, plus laggards--started first half of 2004. if you look at the STI ETF100 as a general guide, the buy signal was crossed in May 2004, which is right about when things started picking up. The real bull run started Jul 06 tho: from the double W bottom and the breakout. Look at the steepness of this uptrend cf to 04-06 period. it hasn't quite stopped since. and if you look at charts, for practically any counter: if you had bought in may-jul 06 (may 06 if you dared, altho the real buy signal only came in jul 06), held til now, you'd easily have doubled your holdings. That's how good the spore market is. Right now, the run up is excessively high (this mth alone), but the fundamentals are there. just gotta pick carefully; look for earnings justified. 5 years is the US market lah. Can't just quote data blindly. So for our local context, based on data, there you have it: our bull run started abt may 04, til now, that's 3 years and 2 mths. Real run is only one year old. my estimate is approx same as victorian: mid 08 can start running. expect down in 09 (scoop up time!), then up as the casinos start. but general, long term, it is up. (unless, of course, net external factors change the trend.) it's a simple thing: if not equities, where is the money going to go to? Not just US pension funds money; how about China's, how about Europe's, how about all the new millionaires here? China already has so much liquidity that they are looking to put their money out of china so that the market there doesn't rush up too fast. You're talking about a country that can support 50-100% growth in PE ratio yoy. (look at cosco as a proxy). If not asia, what else, for now? The fact remains that the time now is Asia's. Of course, gold is good too. hehe. ok long story. zzz. back to work. zzz. |
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noobie
Member |
02-Aug-2007 10:27
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hi elfin, thanks for your reassuring analysis. I too feel that the general trend is still up. and corrections like this one should propel the STI to even greater heights (take cue from Feb Selldown). I have been asking this question in one of the topics but no one has ever replied, i.e., does anyone of you know when this current bull run started? Someone from other forums actually stated that it has been going on for 5 years. ( I do not believe that!). As for now, stay relax at least until National Day. Happy National Day Singapore! |
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ten4one
Master |
02-Aug-2007 10:06
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The Market fall or correction maybe is a blessing in disguise for the ND Rally. I'm even more certain now that the ND Rally could even be better than ever .....or it is just me, cheers. A HAPPY BIRTHDAY SINGAPORE! C-H-E-E-R-S! |
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ten4one
Master |
01-Aug-2007 07:49
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The 'actual' ND Rally will be after the PM traditional ND speech. Watch out for that day! Cheers! |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
01-Aug-2007 00:25
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lol. well winstontkl, while most were running into the market last week mon to wed, i was pulling out alr...live chicken! :P aug to nov will be volatile lah. dow's up now. so spore will likely be up after this period of contra trap. the sustaining factor is the earnings reports of the local companies. you can expect good ones from sembcorp, sembmar, the props, and the usual suspects. all it takes is a few misses tho. i'm expecting the misses to come from the tech companies. CSM was a miss already. then post divvie, likely to be a slump/dull period sept to oct before final pickup for year end. that's just my guess tho. and i'm perfectly willing to change it as the wind blows. hehe. watch out for macro stuff like bird flu, or oil prices sudden spike up (in which case, the SPC-ers can cheer), other major US funds die on their investors etc. these are the unknown constants which will swing the market. to be honest, i think the US subprime problem is bigger than what bernanke is admitting to. but locally, it looks to me as tho asia is decoupling from the US. of course, when the dow sneezes, asia catches a cold (as the saying goes), but i do think we're more immunised to it than before. there are a lot of local investors who've made it on the market this past year, who can more than afford to take over the place left by the foreign funds. if you track techs, a lot of counters are not falling to their retracement levels: it's a sign that ppl are buying up. current vols mon and tues have been low. that's because most investors are on the sidelines. the ones now in are mainly shortsellers and scalpers. as well as those who have to sell. if you look at market depth for a lot of counters, esp the good ones, ppl are not buying nor selling. (ie, hold). plus, if you talk abt money flow from the US, then remember that they have their pension plans. the biggest lot are due for payment in 2010 and beyond: the babyboomers. these pensions have been invested by funds. they HAVE to look for returns. Asia and russia are the only growth stories. US market is weak. Europe is ok. The end story is the same: long term for asia (not just singapore) is up. volatile, yes, because hedge funds and private investors (small BBs) skew the picture a lot. plus, all that irrational sentiment with cheong ah, huat ah! sure, all of us would love that, but there's a need to exercise caution: valuations in singapore are up. it's getting very, very tough weeding out the wheat from the chaff. if you play only sgx, you're scrapping the bottom of the barrel (talking from the viewpoint of a value investor). but long term, at least, til mid 2008, it is up. investing involves a lot of sentiment, yes. but then, the sentiment should be other people's. Esp in such a crazy market, it's all the more necessary to stay detached and rational. note above all just my opinion ah. usual caveat emptor. i'm just sharing my perception. not an inducement to trade. hehe. PS: think you've actually answered your own qn. what comes after an up? :P |
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cyjjerry85
Elite |
01-Aug-2007 00:20
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based on the past history...national day period will normally be a green STI...however with a volatile market recently...we never know what we may be hit at the very next moment |
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winsontkl
Elite |
01-Aug-2007 00:02
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Elf, appreciate your view. But investing involves alot on sentiment. Just last week, all are invincible, the bull rules. Dow hit and the sentiment suddenly turn cautious. So, there might be mini rally coming our way, after that ???? |
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cyjjerry85
Elite |
31-Jul-2007 15:28
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elfinchilde thanks` for the explanation on the mini sell down |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
31-Jul-2007 15:24
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hi winsontkl, i agree with newmoon actually. if s'pore stocks do rally near national day, then it's just a localised feel good factor; but overriding is still the dow. yesterday closed up, but that was a rather wishy-washy up, in my opinion. i wldn't want to predict up or down, since well, just see what happens and act accordingly. too volatile and riding on too many factors. sector: haha. perhaps zooming in less on sector, more on individual stocks. esp since a lot have ran already. for 4Q of year, it's tech, marine and oil in the local market. cyjerry (if you're here): today a lot of countesr wld be down cos it's T+4, so a lot of the speculative/recent run ups will go down as ppl sell off. a better picture would be past friday. |
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speed000
Member |
31-Jul-2007 15:08
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Time to pick up liao...
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chipchip66
Master |
31-Jul-2007 14:48
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This could be the best time to go in now. T+3 or 4 today. Just wished i hav more bullets to snipe at some counters. Sigh... |
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newmoon
Veteran |
31-Jul-2007 13:53
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There is no correlation between national day rally and stockmarket direction. You see what you believe or believe what you see? |
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sarahlkh
Senior |
31-Jul-2007 08:56
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all sectors power ahead |
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winsontkl
Elite |
30-Jul-2007 22:39
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Well, today made a positive impact / right step toward the rally. Cheers. |
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winsontkl
Elite |
29-Jul-2007 23:15
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Very well written Elf, hit the nail at the head. Like the way you summarize the overall picture, but do you think there is going to be a rally near National Day??? Which sector will you be zooming in after the massacre???? Thanks to advice. |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
29-Jul-2007 14:33
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because current market is sentiment driven, and badly affected by dow, what is key to the sti's recovery is less the earnings reports of s'pore companies coming up (which will mostly be stellar), but the movement of the dow, and china. if dow can keep above 13,000; sti will stablise as investors calm down. the other lynchpin is china: it resisted the dow's fall on friday. if china goes up, asian region will likely go up, if not, at least stablise a little. you'll likely see a divergence in stocks now tho; rather than a broad falling/rising. ie, some local stocks are going to go up (the ones with sound fundamentals and low PE, plus good dividends/half year reports), while the speculatives, esp those with trading curbs, are likely going to go down--these latter will be affected too as if their half year results are in Aug and it doesn't show what everyone was speculating will happen, the px will be driven down even further. wld expect bleeding on mon, tues to latest friday tho, due to contra T+5,6,7 trap. those who rushed in last wed morn will have to settle latest this coming fri; so if they don't have cash to hold the counter, wld expect forced selling on quite a few, esp the pennies. margin calls then set in for those who are at the 130% mark. beyond that; losses should be stemmed. unless of course the dow decides to really drop further. basically, make provisions for a 20% drop in your portfolio. if you can handle that; hold. stocks will go up after. part of the cycle: we've had a very good run. so what goes up, must come down. but too, what goes down, must go up. meanwhile it's blood on the streets so the buying opps are here; but gotta choose carefully and cautiously. cowards live longer than heroes. haha. :P (note, above all just my opinion; caveat emptor) |
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winsontkl
Elite |
29-Jul-2007 14:14
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Does anyone thinks the Regular Rally will come????? If YES, good opportunity to stock up with such volatility .... |
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