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Malaysia Recession in 2009???
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10bagger
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26-Dec-2006 14:35
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If it really happened, is there any recession-proof stock??? |
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crazy_money
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25-Dec-2006 23:12
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great article... |
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ROI25per
Master |
25-Dec-2006 13:08
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Very interesting post by lg_6273. It is part & parcel of economic cycle, no crisis means no opportunity for investment... |
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jackjames
Elite |
25-Dec-2006 12:40
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don't worry so much la.. we just need to watch our ownself.. this big things let the government worry lo.. its good to have a recession what... we can start to invest more ... but , i do not think so la.. singapore now have so many potential to grow further, 2 IR is a big double cheese burger liao. |
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winall
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25-Dec-2006 12:26
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hey, other den recession for malaysia, will it happen to the region, or the whole world? since reccession happens once in every 10 yrs. 2007 is juz round the corner |
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Sporeguy
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25-Dec-2006 12:02
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Malasia crawls 1 step, others jump 3 steps. In a long run, Malaysia will far behind China, Thailand (if they return to civilian rule), India, vietnam, etc. Such a waste, a beautiful country but lousy policy basing on race rather merit. Two different of grading in national exams., One for bumi and one for non-bumi. |
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iPunter
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25-Dec-2006 10:41
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Soros is one great tamer of the market beast. Perhap to beat the beast one has to be somewhat of a 'beast' too. Otherwise how will the beast succumb? With charm? But that only happens in the movies... hehe.. :) |
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jackjames
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25-Dec-2006 10:28
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ha ha.. very interesting post by lg_6273, by the way, where you got all these shits? good posts though. |
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liverpool
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24-Dec-2006 22:44
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Very interesting, hope it does not happen... |
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lg_6273
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24-Dec-2006 22:34
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Malaysia Recession in 2009 ... probably sooner; predator Soros came to see if it is ripe for an attack. By Raja Petra Kamarudin Dec 24, 2006, excerpt from www.littlespeck.com I do not want to sound like the Prophet of Doom but the writings on the wall are certainly not good signs. Investment managers tell me that we are not due for a recession yet. The recession will come, they say, but it will only come in 2009. And before that there will be a short Bull Run before the great crash sets in. Watch the stock market, say the experts. It is only about 1,100 points. Considering the height in 1993 was 1,300 and the Ringgit then was 2.4 to the USD, this means - taking into consideration the Ringgit is now 3.7-3.8 to the US dollar - this would make the 1,100 index only about 900 in comparison. Therefore, we still have a lot more to go to break the 1993 record, they argue. Great news! But then why aren?t I elated? How come this does not make me feel like rushing out to buy up all the ?undervalued? shares? Why instead do I feel like cashing out so that I can feel the hard cash in my pocket (figure of speech of course)? I really don?t know. Maybe gut feel? Or educated guess? Whatever it may be, something tells me that the silence is deafening and the quietness may just be that lull before the storm. And I have been in three ?storms? over the last 30 years since mid-1970 to know that whenever everyone tells me to buy, then that would most certainly be the time to sell - because those who are asking me to buy are actually selling and they want me to buy to facilitate them selling. (If no one is buying then how can they sell?). I admit that I am not an economist.. I am certainly not an investment manager either.. So, before anyone starts phoning their stock broker to issue a sell order, maybe they should first seek expert advice. After all, would you not consult a heart specialist if you want to know whether you should have open-heart surgery? Just look at the recent Umno General Assembly. With all the ?endorsed-by-the-top? anti-Chinese rabble rousing, I can only label this as fiddling while Rome burns. And what about the M$3b Second Penang Bridge that they are building, the M$600m ?Christmas present? to the 191 Umno divisions, the M$11b bail-out of badly-run state agencies, the M$1b donation to Cambridge plus the UK Sports Complex, the M$1b a year White Elephants and ?Taj Mahals? in Terengganu which includes the M$300m a year Monsoon Cup....sigh....the list is just too long. Maybe it would be easier for me to list down what they are not spending rather than what they are spending. Then we have the media and plantation company mergers. The size is one thing, more than M$30b, but the fees to the ?lucky? consultant would be in the region of M$100m-M$200m - again our hard earned money. What about the disposal of the M$700m motorcycle company investment to an unknown ?two dollar? company for just one Euro? And then we have the losses in Proton and MAS. Okay, Petronas is going great guns. But then aren?t all oil companies the world over as well? So there is nothing to shout about here. What we want to hear about is the performance of thousands of other state and national agencies. They are bleeding profusely and even with all the ?creative accounting? they still can?t hide the disaster. And this is not just about bad business decisions and poor judgment but about corruption down to the core. Ripe for correction Malaysia is ripe for a ?correction?. And when it comes it is not going to be pleasant. Blood will be drawn and it will be our blood, the rakyat?s hard-earned money taken from us by the government by way of taxes. We now pay more for petrol and it will be going up again pretty soon. We also pay more for water, electricity, and toll charges - which are going up again by more than 50% in a few days? time. There is nothing that we touch which is not taxable. In the case of petrol, the tax is three times or so the actual cost of petrol - so when we fill up with a full tank of M$100, the tax is about M$70-80. The same goes for cigarettes and all the other ?sins? that we indulge in (and don?t we all have many sins?). Over the last two or three years, investors have been slowly moving to other countries like Thailand, China and Vietnam. Malaysia is no longer the favoured investment destination. And I am not just talking about foreign investors but Malaysians as well who no longer have confidence in this country. Even those who are staying put are not increasing their investments but would rather set up new businesses overseas while keeping their Malaysian operations as they are without pumping in any more money. Malaysians flooding out The exodus of Malaysians seeking greener pastures has increased many-fold. Malaysian students who are already overseas prefer to seek employment in their adopted countries rather than return to their motherland to a bleak and uncertain future. We are presently seeing a brain drain of proportions never seen before... Yes, the emperor is fiddling while Rome is burning. And the predators are moving in for the kill. They are seeing Malaysia about to burst at the seams and they want to be around to pick up the pieces. And one such predator is Soros who is like a shark circling its prey when it smells blood. Why Soros came Why did Soros come to Malaysia last week? It was certainly not to laze in the sun while feasting his eyes on the sailboat race during the recent Terengganu Monsoon Cup. It was to case the joint. He wanted to see how strong or weak Malaysia?s defences are. If he did another raid on Malaysia like he did a decade ago, would he be able to get away with it? Soros wanted to meet Abdullah Ahmad Badawi but Khairy Jamaluddin, his son-in-law, advised against it. So he met Dr Mahathir Mohamad instead, his one-time nemesis. Surprisingly, Mahathir not only agreed to meet Soros but even absolved him of the 1997 disaster. Has Mahathir gone bonkers? Every man and his dog know who Soros is and what he did. Soros himself has never denied it. He just justified it but he never denied it. And he justified it the way Edmund Hillary justified climbing Mount Everest - because it was there. The Asian currencies were ripe for picking and whenever anything is ripe for picking then any picker worth his salt just goes ahead and picks it. No, Mahathir is far from bonkers. He knows who Soros is. After all, was it not Soros who created a dent in his legacy and almost brought his government down? Malaysia has never been the same since. Malaysia would have been very different from the Malaysia today if not because of Soros. So what is Mahathir really up to? Mahathir is just being a good strategist. Mahathir is just being a good general. He knows that Malaysia is ripe to be brought down, yet again. And he knows who is most capable of doing this. Is it not a good strategist and general one who knows his enemy? Soros is a Trojan Horse. And one must beware of Trojan Horses. Sure, he talks about world peace and he shares Mahathir?s aspiration for world peace. But Soros wants to see world peace in the American model. Malaysia is but a small canoe amongst a sea of super tankers. Just the wake alone is enough to sink this canoe called Malaysia. China and the US are currently eyeballing each other and are engaged in some serious sabre rattling. Is our Finance Minister cum Prime Minister aware of this? ?.. China is the largest ?hoarder? of American dollars. It is estimated that China holds about USD1 trillion and if it releases it onto the market the US economy would collapse - followed by the world of course, in particular countries like Malaysia, which depend on exports to the US. The US knows this and it is not sitting still. So it sent a team to China to talk to them but the Chinese told the Americans to go fly kites. The US knows what it must do if China makes its move. It will just abandon the USD and create a new currency called the AMERO. That will catch the Chinese with their pants down. When these two economic giants eventually clash, and it may be a matter of time before they do, Malaysia would be pushed back into the beginning of the last century. Abdullah Badawi is fiddling. He is not fiddling metaphorically speaking like Nero did as Rome burned. He is fiddling with our money. The bottom is about to fall out of our economy and they are still enjoying Monsoon Cup pestas in Terengganu and spending billions - of money which we do not have - on all and sundry. Don?t say I didn?t warn you. And remember, you heard it here first. The party will soon be over. As Rome burned to the ground so will Malaysia unless Abdullah stops fiddling and starts running this country. We are about to crash and the pilot is having a snooze while the country flies on autopilot. But it will soon be time to land the plane and you can?t do that on autopilot. You have to take control of the plane and land it in one piece. But the problem is: you do not even know where the hell we are and where the airport is. All you can see is the sea below and we may not have enough fuel to fly around in circles looking for the runaway.. (..) The next recession will be in 2009, say the experts. Others swear it will be in 2008, after globalisation and after we sign the FTA with the US. I would put my money (pun intended) on next year. Yes, 2007, that will be when we will all know what it feels like to live in Indonesia a few years back. I always like to say ?I told you so?. But I hope this time, I really do, that come Christmas 2007, you will tell me, ?Ha! You were wrong!? (Extracted) For full article, please read: http://malaysia-today.net/blog2006/corridors.php?itemid=1393 Comments By aussieinasia Until your song gets in the mainstream media, people will sip 'teh terik' (their tea) and think all is well. Bruders1 Interesting and frightening. Of course the signs are here. The numbers of rakyat (citizens) that are having difficulties to meet up with the growing cost of living are increasing steadily. That is why, any increase of price are now met with strong objections. wawasan2o2o I hope one day Malaysia can really accept globalisation. Please accept we need a capable leader. Can Malaysia every do that - accept a non-Muslim to lead, a person that's really capable discarding race. Malaysia is 50-years-old now (but) still behaves like 5-months-old, still need NEP to spoon feed, continue putting those drugs into our systems. Every day, I have felt hurt and sad, seeing what happened the last three years. I planned to go back (to Malaysia) soon after the change of leader. Blue Blood wrote: No thanks to your above masterpiece, it is too frightening! Tell me, what must I do to safeguard my family?s future. Baba wrote: Dear RPK, I agree with you that the Country now is like a ship without a captain and all the officers are preparing to abandon ship. It seems that it is now everyone for him/herself, grabbing whatever he can and all others be dammed. The rot is not only at the highest level of the government but all across the civil service. SBennit RPK, Couldn't you have just waited after the New Year day to give us something depressing like this. Well, Singapore actually sees something like this coming, too. That's why they are building detention centres to house refugees from Malaysia just in case. They also anticipate Badawi asking them for military assistance as a last option. LT I agree with the bit about brain drain. I'm in the 3rd year of my studies (in a Western country) now, and it's probably another 5 years tops before I have to go back to my lovely home in Cheras. In the past, I couldn't wait to go back home and serve my country, to serve the people who, in paying tax, contribute to financing my studies. I couldn't wait to work in Malaysia, even though working conditions here are so much more ideal. My heart had always been with my tanah air. However, I (now) feel so sick reading about UMNO, about Pak Lah. I feel like there is no future for Malaysia, at least, not a bright one. I can imagine Malaysia becoming like Nigeria or Sierra Leone, but without the civil war. There will be plenty of politicking, corruption, cronyism (yes, even more than now) just to feed our politicians' greed, to the point where economic growth will be static, hell, it may even shrink. My desire to return home is not as fiery as before. The greedy UMNO politicians are to blame. God help Malaysia! rickteo wrote: Our P.M and his gang doesnt know the meaning of saving. All they know is to spend and spend until the kitty is dry. Investment and multiplying their capital is not in their dictionary. Most of the expenditure spent has no return. They are all one-way street. haengketu wrote: Malaysian economy has slowed down but it is not sinking as RPK tried to describe it. Look closely at the fundamentals of our economy. The plantations, the electronic production, the services and the infrastructure. We can of course improve a great deal more with less corruptions but we are not so bad as you have said. pangait wrote: Wow!! What a write-up. Scared the shit out of me. There is an interesting article in The Edge Malaysia (Dec 18 ? Dec 24) "Will Kuok deal be a precursor to others?" Basically it's about a good malaysian public-listed company (PPB Oil Palms) wanting out of Malaysia. The reason as the writer puts it "...because of peculiar ownership rules that apply in Malaysian listings". My guess is the 30% Bumiputra ownership, which must be maintained. An SPV (special purpose vehicle) was created in Singapore to buy over PPB. The SPV & PPB have common owner, which is Kuok. There are lots of good Malaysian companies seeking to have their initial public offering in markets like Singapore, Hong Kong or the UK. If the PPB deal happens "we could see some of the better stocks in Malaysia extricated from our market and placed in Singapore". Well so much for the future of the Malaysian bourse Malaysia Today |
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