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David Bensimon's Predictions
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Livermore
Master |
17-Dec-2006 10:54
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Business Times 2 November 2006 - Asia to outperform US in next decade
Markets will be strong in the next decade, with Asia far outperforming the US and oil and silver outperforming gold, says trader and analyst David Bensimon.
But the near term will see consolidation as markets need to digest recent gains.
Inflation will trend up, he says and that implies that interest rates will not be cut despite the widespread expectation that the Federal Reserve will do so in mid 2007. David expects the US dollar to depreciate by as much as 50% against a number of currencies. David believes the US are in an era of rising interest rate and the disinflation of the 1990s is well behind them. He now expects in 2007 central banks in US will continue their rate tightening cycle.
David says,"What we will see is the effect of ambient inflation helping to propel stock markets higher. Markets will rise because of real growth and prosperity." David expects the S&P 500 to rise to 3600 by 2012. That, he says is equivalent to the Dow Jones at 40 000. That is the base case for the US. Europe will outperform the US and Asia will "far outperform".
David expects commodities to hold out "superior outperformance" among the assest classes because of inflation and the weak US dollar, and also sheer demand."There is a real demand for commodities from China and India and real tightness of supply. We are in many ways re-living the 1970s where you had an increase in oil prices and problems in the Middles East."
David Bensimon prediction of oil price hitting US$100 a barrel in the future is similar to ex US President Clinton. David Bensimon is a technical and analyst whose market predictions in the past have been almost uncannily accurate.David website is at www.polarpacific.com
If US interest rate is not cut next year as I expect, then David is right and I am wrong.....
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pikachu
Veteran |
17-Dec-2006 09:31
Yells: "Holy Cow!" |
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US$100 may be coming true! With winter coming and the cut in oil production, oil prices will surely rise. |
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Livermore
Master |
17-Dec-2006 00:43
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Well I don't know if US$102 a barrel is within reach next year. It seems hard with a US economic slow down. However I did read in the business times some time back about a comment that ex US President Bill Clinton made. He said that everbody he knows that is in the oil business say that it is going to be US$100 a barrel soon or later........ |
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billywows
Elite |
16-Dec-2006 22:29
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Great post, Livermore! With the prediction of oil at $102 next year .... SPC sure look damn cheap now ya! HeeHee! |
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Livermore
Master |
16-Dec-2006 13:59
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Waxing Lyrical About Markets
Business Times 29 November 2006 - Genevieve Cua talks to to technical analyst David Bensimon, whose market predictions are almost uncannily accurate
When analyst and investor David Bensimon speaks of markets, the conversation is peppered with words like "beautiful" and "symmetry". Using a blend of technical and fundamental analysis, Mr Bensimon makes some startling calls on markets that might provoke incredulity - until you examine his track record. Oil, he says, will hit US$102 a barrel within the next year; gold US$2600 an ounce by 2014; the S&P 500 at 3600 by 2012.
Recall that in March 2005, Goldman Sachs made investors sit up with its prediction that oil could spike to US$105 a barrel. Mr Bensimon says he was one step ahead, having made his call US$102 call a month before the Goldman report. Mr Bensimon's other calls over the past few years have earned him a following. These are his calls:
1. In March 2002, he called for a peak in the
S&P 500 at 1542 within the next week.
Indeed, the index peaked at 1552 in the time
that he said it would.
2. Shortly after he predicted a 50% fall in S&P
500 in 2 to 5 years. The index fell 50%
within two and a half
years.
3. More recently in August he called for gold
to plummet from US$732 an ounce to US$550.
Within three weeks of his call, gold fell to
US$546. Now he expects gold to consolidate
before climbing again.
Some clients have snapped up his newly published book Polar Perpectives" hardly batting an eyelid at its hefty price tag of US$685 each..
He began as a trader looking mainly at fundamentals, news, economic events, dominated by supply and demand and banks flows. In the last few years, the availability of charting software made technical analysis more accessible.
He said, "To ascertain a very long term trend, you need to know what the fundamentals are. Technical analysis allows you to identify the precise turning points - that this price at that time is a good place to buy or temporarily sell. It is not a question of technical versus fundamentals. They each contribute to the investment and trading decision.
Mr Bensimon does not trade stocks but invests in futures and physical commodities, holding positions in gold, silver and platimun. Mr Bensimon is also developing a trading model, aimed at giving clients buy and sell signals
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