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Bernanke On Calls for Yuan Flexibility
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maxsyn
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18-Dec-2006 08:37
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the appreciation of RMB will only make US consumer pay more for China product but will still buy from China as it is still the cheapest they can get. The spread will be much wider as US currency is also weakening. In any case, China has a huge domestic market to support the consumption and that only make their economy going stronger. |
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Livermore
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17-Dec-2006 08:59
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Let's face it. Even if China apreciates its Yuan, US current account deficit is still going to be high in the billions. US has wasted so much money and time in their "war on terror" in the Middle East and that has escalated thier problems back home. Now China is a major exporter. In the future, I see China as a major exporter and importer. When that happens, Singapore and the rest of Asia will prosper! In the future, China's Yuan will be the number 1 currency in the world! That is something that even the US can do nothing about! |
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ten4one
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17-Dec-2006 06:47
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The American is the biggest culprit and when they over-spent their budgets and live on credits, they blame others. Well maybe you're powerful, you could demand that....or just maybe? Who is in the better position to manage the Economy of China and balance their books. Definitely not the Americans - they can't even balanced their own accounts!!!!!!! Cheers! |
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Livermore
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16-Dec-2006 02:00
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The US has a lot of internal problems but they put the blame on other countries. I am bemused when I read the US tells China to appreciate their currency because it is good for China. The people are China are intelligent. They have seen what happened to Japan. They are not going to listen to the US. China will appreciate their currency at their own pace. A for the US dollar, former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan said the US dollar will probably keep falling because it is unlikely that international fund managers will continue to increase their allocation to the US dollar. Russia and other oil producing currencies are shifting their assets out of dollars towards the euro and yen. Greenspan said the US dollar, heading for its fourth decline in the past 5 years, will probably keep falling until the US current account deficit diminishes. The US current account deficit was US$218.4 billion in the second quarter, the second biggest on record. The US dollar has slightly surpassed my year end prediction of US$1 = S$1.54 and now it is about US$1 = S$1.538. I would not be surprised if it goes below S$1.50 by end 2007. US keeps pressuring China to appreciate their currency but China's resistance will prevail. A token appreciation of the yuan is expected but not a sharp increase within a short time. A sharp increase in the yuan would not be good for China and China knows that. The US is in dilemma. With US growth slowing down, a rate cut is expected to spur growth. But a rate cut is going to accelerate the decline in the US dollar even faster. In the mean time, the slide in the US dollar continues.............. |
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maxsyn
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15-Dec-2006 20:52
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BEIJING -- With protectionist sentiments on the rise on Capitol Hill, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke backed away from his potentially incendiary charge that China subsidizes its exports by keeping its currency artificially weak against the dollar. In a speech Friday after the close of two days of high-level U.S.-China talks in Beijing, Mr. Bernanke said that China's currency policies constitute an "incentive" to exporters and called them a "distortion" that steers investment towards export-related industries and away from industries that would benefit Chinese consumers. Mr. Bernanke dropped, however, references in the original text of his speech that called China's suppression of the yuan's value an "effective subsidy" for firms that "focus on exporting rather than producing for the domestic market." The chairman had used the word "subsidy" to describe China's currency practices three times in the written text, which was released before his appearance and posted to the Fed's website. Mr. Bernanke's speech, delivered to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, focused on the currency as one of the ways in which China could improve its economic management. In addition to calling for greater currency flexibility by China, he also said the U.S. needs to increase its national savings rate -- issues that were echoed in a statement released at the close of the talks that said China is committed to continuing exchange-rate reform and the U.S. to saving more. Mr. Bernanke had joined a delegation of senior U.S. officials led by Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson that spent two days discussing economic and trade issues with its Chinese counterparts. The much-anticipated talks ended without any breakthroughs on such thorny issues as currency policy. "We have a point of view that there's more risk in going too slowly than there is in going too fast," Mr. Paulson told reporters after meetings with President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao Friday. "And the Chinese see that differently." The two sides, however, said they found common ground on such broad issues as the importance of dismantling barriers to trade and investment flows. And they set up several groups charged with negotiating specific agreements in such areas as health, aviation, energy, investment and trade in services. The groups are to report their progress at the next U.S.-China conclave in Washington in May. "For the United States and the world at large, China's development is an opportunity instead of a threat," Chinese Vice Premier Wu Yi said after the talks ended. "It serves as a propelling force behind the growth of the world economy." But with the specter of the mushrooming U.S.-China trade imbalance hanging over the talks, Mr. Bernanke's flirtation with the term "subsidy" took on heightened political and legal significance. Many lawmakers, manufacturers and labor unions accuse China of cheating in foreign trade -- and effectively subsidizing its exporters -- by preventing the yuan from rising further and faster. A weak yuan makes American goods and services relatively expensive, and Chinese products relatively cheap. Chinese officials say that stability in the yuan's exchange rate provides important benefits to their economy, and that they are committed to allowing market forces to play a greater role over time. The currency has increased just 5.8% against the dollar since the Chinese authorities first allowed it to move in July 2005, and Mr. Bernanke sided with those who say its value is far below what would be set by a free market. If it concluded that China is subsidizing exports through its currency policies, the Bush administration could well be forced to take punitive measures against China at the precise moment it is undertaking a government-wide effort to improve U.S.-Chinese economic relations. The Treasury Department, for instance, would come under intense congressional pressure to declare China a currency manipulator in its semiannual foreign-exchange report. Mr. Paulson is already two months late with the next report, which was due Oct. 15. Furthermore, the administration might find itself obliged to bring a trade case against China for violating international rules against export subsidies. Treasury and Fed officials denied that Treasury had brought any pressure to bear on Mr. Bernanke to modify his language. "It was a spontaneous decision to enhance the clarity of that sentence," said Fed spokeswoman Michelle Smith. The Fed is fiercely protective of its independence from political Washington. And Fed officials stood by the written version of the speech, as well as the spoken address. In both, Mr. Bernanke jumped enthusiastically on the currency bandwagon, urging China to allow the yuan to appreciate and, eventually, to move freely against other currencies. Such a move, he said, would give the Chinese greater control over their own monetary policy and would help reorient China's economy away from exports and more towards production for its huge domestic market. Though the yuan was a central focus of the U.S.-China economic discussions this week, regulatory changes that would give foreign companies greater access to the Chinese market were also on the agenda. There were no major breakthroughs, although the two sides announced initiatives to expand economic exchanges, including plans for Nasdaq Stock Market Inc. and NYSE Group Inc., operator of the New York Stock Exchange, to expand their presence in China. (See related article.) The joint statement also said the U.S. and China will start discussions on a possible investment agreement. Under such agreements, which the U.S. has with 39 other nations, the two parties typically agree to give foreign investors the same legal protections as domestic investors, and agree not to impose restrictions on foreign investors' operations or movement of funds into and out of the country. The two countries also committed to restart in January negotiations aimed at increasing the number of passenger flights between the U.S. and China. Such talks had been stalled since an abortive meeting this past April. The current air agreement between U.S. and China does add new flights gradually through 2010, but there has been fierce competition among U.S. airlines for the few slots that are opening up. "China and the U.S. have shared economic interests, and we agree on many issues," Mr. Paulson said.
By MICHAEL M. PHILLIPS and ANDREW BATSON |
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