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Bull Market Continues
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xoefxoef
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21-Oct-2006 01:24
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Dow Notches First Close Above 12,000Associated Press Friday, October 20, 2006; Page D03 NEW YORK, Oct. 19 -- The Dow Jones industrial average scored its first close at more than 12,000 Thursday as Wall Street, showing its growing confidence despite new evidence of a weakening economy, managed to hold on to a slim advance. The Dow ended the day at 12,011.73, the ninth time in two weeks that the index achieved a record high close. The index gained 19.05, or 0.16 percent, for the day. The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index rose 1.00, or 0.07 percent, to 1366.96. The Nasdaq composite index rose 3.79, or 0.16 percent, to 2340.94. The Dow's latest milestone came on the anniversary of Black Monday in 1987, when the Dow fell 508 points and also suffered its second-biggest percentage drop in history. The Dow finished that day at 1793.90. The Dow's finish above 12,000 was the latest sign that the stock market continues a cautious recovery from the losses and despair that investors suffered in the early part of this decade. After peaking in early 2000, the Dow and other indicators fell precipitously during the dot-com collapse, recession and the impact of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. Still, trading was erratic Thursday, with the overall market struggling to sustain gains after a pair of reports signaled that the Federal Reserve might have a tougher time orchestrating a soft landing of the economy. Disappointing earnings in the technology sector also weighed on stocks. The Conference Board's index of U.S. leading economic indicators rose less than forecast in September. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Fed's general economic index contracted for the first time since April 2003. The numbers rattled investors who had been sending stocks higher since September on optimism the Fed might cut rates in early 2007. |
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ten4one
Master |
20-Oct-2006 07:27
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An over-dosed of redbull can kill the Bull and bring back the honey loving Bear. BTW, the cut in productions announced by OPEC is to prevent over-supply as stock-pile is still high. This is just to prevent further falls of the oil pxs. More of a stablization move than to create a shortage of demands. Cheers! |
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knightrider
Elite |
19-Oct-2006 23:34
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Well Done to the wake up Bull, feed him more red bull to cheong faster ! Good Luck, but be careful, may be a bit too hot liao, heard Opec just announce will cut down 1 million barrel of out put daily, thus might create a demand in oil and thus oil price will move above 60 bucks ! | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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billywows
Elite |
19-Oct-2006 23:13
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After the bull run-ups recently, so much for a rate cut at the FOMC next week (25th Oct). Dow still above 12,000 mark at 12,005 now! Shiok! |
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xoefxoef
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19-Oct-2006 23:03
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Seems that all signs are green again. Up UP UP
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singaporegal
Supreme |
19-Oct-2006 20:43
Yells: "Female TA nut" |
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Hi robinpang, I agree that the retail investors in Singapore are not market movers and the institutional investors have more control over the market. However, I find that the TA charts still do work. The charts don't care about who's buying or selling. They just measure buying and selling pressure on a stock. Usually, investors (institutional or otherwise) will take up positions over time on a counter and this will become apparent in the charts. |
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robinpang
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19-Oct-2006 19:51
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Hi, it is interesting what you written Livermore senior! I totally agree wit the bull market in place, and and agree with 99% of your article. But i have one nagging questions. The herd are not market movers. In fact, its the instituitional investors who have control in terms of huge volume trades? I am curious that technical indicators all indicate overbought, and i want to ask, wouldnt the correct catch us unaware when we are all caught up in the heat of the rally? Wouldnt this be the best time for institutional investors to "Sell" all of a sudden, one morning, when we are all drunk on the rally? What i am saying, isint this the best time for us to sell first, and wait out the correction, rather than shrug the correction off, as many of us did in the earlier correction a few months back? |
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xoefxoef
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18-Oct-2006 23:05
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After 6 years Dow breaks through 12,000. Previous high was 11800 somewhere in 2000. Time for another bull run towards 13,000. By year end??? |
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ten4one
Master |
18-Oct-2006 11:26
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Rate cut?? The Market woud be pleased if there isn't any hike as of now! Any rates cut should be an added bonus. Cheers!!! | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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chipchip66
Master |
17-Oct-2006 23:00
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no rate cut liao!! | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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xoefxoef
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17-Oct-2006 22:59
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Livermore
Master |
17-Oct-2006 20:54
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The market continued its bull run last week as earnings season got off to a so-so start. Mixed economic data fueled the continued rally, as sidelined investors continued to trickle cash into equities, driving the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA ? 11,960.5) to a new all-time high just short of the 12K mark. As a result of this bullish activity, we are seeing a market that appears to be growing more resilient. Advertisement The Top 50 Inside Secrets - Free "The Top 50 Inside Secrets to Successful Trading" from New World Trading is the complimentary report you need if you want to get going with futures. Yes, futures can be very profitable as inflation grows and the dollar wobbles but you need to know the rules of the game before you start. Qualify now. End of Advertisement Technically, the market continues to provide reason for the bulls to maintain their run, as little to no overhead resistance stands in the way. The upcoming 12K level for the Dow is more than likely to induce some hesitation, as all round numbers normally do with traders and investors taking stock of their portfolios and engaging in some profit taking. Typically, the market pauses while investors reflect on market rallies that take the Dow or other indices to round number levels. But once the resistance of these round numbers is taken out, the market clicks back into rally mode as those who hesitated begin to edge back into the market. This is a great time to review the sentiment stages of a rally because the market is likely to shift stages soon. As some may have read in these pages before, we find that there are four stages to any market rally - disgust (normally when stocks make a long-term bottom), disbelief (when investors doubt a market rally), acceptance (the point at which investors begin to "believe" in a rally), and finally euphoria (the point at which investors appear to think nothing can go wrong with a rally). It is important to be aware of where we are within this cycle to see how much longer a rally can last. For instance, when the market hits the euphoric stage it is often best to begin cutting back on long positions. Why? If everyone is euphoric, it often means that the majority of cash has been allocated to the market, meaning that there is little catalyst left for stock prices to go higher. This also means that there is more selling potential priced into stocks, as negative news tends to spook investors into selling. Putting this knowledge to work, the current market appears to be at the tail-end of the second, or "disbelief," stage. Evidence of this comes in more than a few measures of sentiment. First, take recent quotes from analysts and investors. We heard the battle cry last month that September was the worst month of the year to be in the market. This came on the heels of a relatively strong July and August, which of course falls under the "sell in May and go away" heading. Fast forward five weeks later and the Dow is making new highs, pulling the S&P 500 Index (SPX ? 1,365.62) and Nasdaq Composite (COMP ? 2,357.3) with it. Now, conveniently, the market is looking for a pullback as the Dow edges near 12K. The disbelief from investors that the current rally is legitimate should be considered a bullish catalyst as long as the technicals and fundamentals remain strong, as they have. As I mentioned a few weeks ago, October is the gateway to the strongest seasonality period for the market, with November, December, and January averaging the best historic yields for stocks. This plays well within the context of the four sentiment stages, as a break above 12K will likely spur further migration of sideline cash into the market as we begin to move into this seasonal strength. This migration will likely cause a shift from disbelief to acceptance as market participants begin to commit more assets to equities. This acceptance phase can be powerful for stocks, and bolsters the short-term bullish potential for the market. Further evidence of the continued disbelief in the market rally is seen in the CBOE equity put/call ratio. This telltale sentiment indicator has remained near its relative highs as put volume continues to weigh heavily in daily options trading at the CBOE. The ratio's short-term trend is beginning to turn lower, indicating that options traders are increasing the number of calls traded relative to puts. A continuation of the trend would suggest that investors may start unwinding their pessimistic sentiment, which often correlates with higher equity prices. Another sign of belief that the market rally is real, though not yet over-extended, comes from Investors Intelligence. Last week's poll results show that 52.2 percent of participants consider themselves bullish, while 30.4 percent are bearish. This represents a bull-to-bear ratio of 1.72. This ratio has been on the rise for the past nine weeks, as poll participants continue to see brighter skies ahead. Despite the increase, the ratio remains below the "danger zone" of readings above 2.0. Earnings kick into full swing this week, with 99 of the 500 SPX companies reporting their quarterly results. Of these 99, 13 have current "whisper numbers," or investor expectations, that are more than two percent higher than current analyst expectations. These companies are thus at risk for exaggerated selling if they don't hit these optimistic expectations. On the other side of the coin, there are another 13 of the 99 that have whisper expectations below analyst numbers by more than two percent. Wrapping it up, considering current technical and sentiment conditions, the market continues to be more likely to advance than decline. The major indices continue to operate in overbought territory, indicating that a mild pullback would be healthy. Such a well-deserved rest would be likely viewed as an opportunity to step into the market by those who have been waiting on the sidelines. Earnings and a heavy flow of economic data will act as the catalyst for market direction and should be watched closely this week. That said, this market appears to be strong enough to withstand some negative news without derailing from its bullish course. |
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DanielXX
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17-Oct-2006 20:14
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Trading terminology are full of sexual overtones. Just think about selling climaxes, breakouts, penetrations (of moving averages etc), head-and-shoulders, double tops (what does that resemble?), cup-and-handles --- all innuendoes. Even the bull, the epitome of a rampant market, is also the epitome of sexual virility. Perhaps the excitement that traders experience when trading the market stems from the same energy source that gives rise to sexual desires. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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colorado
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17-Oct-2006 17:18
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I agree with Singaporegal... Isn't this about bears and bulls? | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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singaporegal
Supreme |
17-Oct-2006 15:18
Yells: "Female TA nut" |
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I think you need help... | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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handicapper88
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17-Oct-2006 15:16
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why do i read sexual inneundo into everything you guys post? | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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singaporegal
Supreme |
17-Oct-2006 15:15
Yells: "Female TA nut" |
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Actually I'm quite happy with this minor correction today. Its healthy and relieves some stress on the bull. It went up too high too fast. |
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ten4one
Master |
17-Oct-2006 14:32
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I'm waiting for the Bull to take a rest anytime soon before going back in again for the final thrust for the year. The Bull deserves a good break. Cheers! | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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knightrider
Elite |
17-Oct-2006 14:12
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May be is over when the 2nd blast just done ! |
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xoefxoef
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17-Oct-2006 13:27
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By John Waggoner, USA TODAY
The bull market marked its fourth birthday last week, but whether mutual fund investors enjoyed big gains the past four years depended on the flavor of funds they invested in.
Four years after hitting a low of 777 on Oct. 9, 2002, the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index has risen 87%, assuming dividends and gains were reinvested. Some mutual fund winners: ? If you owned funds that invest in beaten-up small-company stocks, you probably outgained the S&P index. The top such fund, Pacific Advisors Small Cap (PASMX), soared 309%. Funds that invest outside the USA also outpaced the S&P. ? Among all diversified U.S. funds, the standout was Fidelity Leveraged Company Stock (FLVCX). That fund, which invests in midsize companies that issue low-quality debt, soared 341%. ? Some funds that specialize in certain sectors fared even better. Latin America funds, for example, leaped an average 407%. And the top-performing fund of the bull market, iShares MSCI Brazil (EWZ), samba'd to a 628% return, aided by red-hot gains in Brazil's currency, the real. Foreign stocks become more valuable to U.S. investors when their countries' currencies rise vs. the dollar. |
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