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Capitamall Trust
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rickytan
Veteran |
17-Jan-2007 18:59
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CapitalMall is releasing their financial results next week on 25 Janauary 2006. Not vested in this counter (but vested in CapitalCommercial 2 days ago at $2.45. Today closing price is $2.60). |
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shplayer
Elite |
23-Jun-2006 17:23
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nickyng, certainly....its a good guide as long as you are comfortable with it. Bear in mind, DPU can also go up or go down. So far, CapMall DPU has been going up and they have always exceded their forecast DPU by 9 to 10% annually. Everyone has their own investment objectives and strategies to achieve these objectives. So long as you are comfortable with it, then its good....the main thing is, always do your homework before taking the plunge.....that way, you will not lose sleep and you minimise your risks. |
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nickyng
Supreme |
23-Jun-2006 17:10
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well how low is low for me a rule beside the NAV value...with capital appre/depreciation aside..will be to consider the total counter value that u hold for a year on the dividends yield compares to the principal cash sum u gonna throw into say a Fix Dep for interest return per annum...is that a gd guide ?? :) |
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shplayer
Elite |
23-Jun-2006 16:04
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When REITS first started in Spore a few years ago, they were priced at about 6.5% to 7.0% yield on their offer price. At the same time, S$ interest rates (savings and FDs) yielded < 0.5%. So, with a yield spread of >10x, the REITS were obviously more attractive compared to deposits.....albeit REITS presenting a risk of capital depreciation, i.e the risks/ rewards of REITS justified putting $$$ into REITS. Since then, S$ deposit interests have been on an upward trend and REIT prices ....both IPOs and share prices....have also been uptrending.....causing a downward trend in REIT yields. When CapMall second IPO was launched @ $2.35, the yield was 4.7% for FY2006. S$ interest could easily be secured for 3.0% or more ....even for relatively short term. As such, the risk/rewards for REITS at that price became less acceptable at 4+ %. The premium of REIT yield over deposit rates need to be wider to make it prudent for investors to find them attractive. Besides the decreasing yield of REITS, the premium of the REIT Price to its NAV was also increasing. In the market, there are several property counters (non REIT) that are still trading at a discount to its NAV........these factors makes the REITS less attractive as investments. So, nickyng, you are right.....the lower it gets, the more attractive it becomes........but....you have to decide how low is attractive enough...... this will be dependant on your own investment strategy. Good luck!!!! |
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nickyng
Supreme |
23-Jun-2006 13:48
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i guess this counter suffered the same fate as AscendasREIT...haha...only this 2 bro down..other REITs seems going up :) wondering why??? anyway the lower it gets..the more attractive it becomes true?? hee.... |
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shplayer
Elite |
23-Jun-2006 11:57
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I have been vested in this Reit since its initial launch @ 96cts and accumulate whenever there is rights and dips. Last IPO, I accumulated some more, not from my 'rights' but bought cheaper from open mkt and cum with 1 Jul to 30 Oct 2006 DPU. When S$ savings and FD rates began to recover to about the 3% range, I sold all my holdings (after taking 1Q DPU)...and before the GE...@ $2.40 (FY06 yield of 4.6%). Guess I was lucky..... |
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singaporegal
Supreme |
22-Jun-2006 16:23
Yells: "Female TA nut" |
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no problem! glad to help! |
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red1721
Senior |
22-Jun-2006 15:12
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Wow! I didnt expect someone to come out with such a detailed analysis for me. Thanks a million shplayer! And singaporegal, I've seen your postings quite a number of times, and I would say, u're been very very helpful with all your advises in this forum, KEEP IT UP GUYS!!! |
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singaporegal
Supreme |
19-Jun-2006 21:51
Yells: "Female TA nut" |
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shplayer... great FA analysis you've done! Here's my TA outlook on this - Accumulation/Distrubution, RSI are all downtrending for Capitalmall for about 2 months now. The price will probably still head south for the meantime in the current bearish market. |
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shplayer
Elite |
19-Jun-2006 18:53
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Hi red1721, I am no guru but will provide you some figures to help you decide on your next course of action for CMT. Since you subscribed to the IPO last year, you have already collected
For FY 2006, Co. forecast to pay 11.04cts DPU (of which you have already received 2.72cts). i.e for 2Q, 3Q and 4Q total DPU to be collected is forecast to be 11.04 - 2.72 = 8.32cts.Historically, CMT has always exceeded their DPU forecast. NAV(after DPU) on 31Mar06 is $1.64 Now for some ratios:
Today, S$ FDs attract >3% interest. With interest set to continue its upward trend, investors will want to see a wider premium of the DPU over FD interest rated....(FDs are safer cos it is inherently capital protected so investors are prepared to accept lower yields). Since DPUs are dependent on rental market forces (which the stock market cannot influence), the only other way to vary the yield is by a change of the mkt price of CMT. Hope this helps. |
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red1721
Senior |
19-Jun-2006 17:07
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I've bought the 2nd IPO last yr at a price of 2.35, was doing pretty fine till the market crash 2 weeks back. Anyone can advise if I should sell or hold on to this stock, was advised by my friend in the brokerage line that its for long term investments Any otehr sentiments from the gurus here? |
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